Changing Demographics in the U.S. and the Impact on Congress Richard Fry, PhD Prepared for presentation to the HACU 16 th Annual National Capitol Forum on Hispanic Higher Education, Washington, DC April 4, 2011
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HISPANIC CHILDREN & CENSUS 2010
Children 2010 and 2000 ALL HISPANIC % Population (thousands) 2010 74,165 17,132 23 2000 72,175 12,342 17 Population Growth Growth (thousands) 1,989 4,790 Growth (%) 2.8 38.8 Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau Redistricting_Files-PL_94-171 for states
Six States Have At Least 500,000 Hispanic Children HISPANIC CHILDREN 2010 2000 (thousands) Rank (thousands) Rank United States 17,132 12,342 California 4,756 1 4,051 1 Texas 3,318 2 2,387 2 Florida 1,105 3 703 4 New York 975 4 893 3 Illinois 723 5 552 5 Arizona 704 6 493 6 New Jersey 461 7 339 7 Colorado 374 8 259 9 Georgia 315 9 136 14 North Carolina 308 10 120 16 Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau Redistricting_Files-PL_94-171 for states
In Twelve States More than 1-in- 5 Children are Hispanic HISPANIC SHARE OF ALL CHILDREN (%) 2010 Rank 2000 United States 23.1 17.1 New Mexico 58.2 1 50.9 California 51.2 2 43.8 Texas 48.3 3 40.5 Arizona 43.2 4 36.1 Nevada 39.4 5 28.6 Colorado 30.5 6 23.5 Florida 27.6 7 19.3 Illinois 23.1 8 17.0 New York 22.5 9 19.0 New Jersey 22.3 10 16.2 Oregon 20.8 11 12.7 Rhode Island 20.5 12 14.1 Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau Redistricting_Files-PL_94-171 for states
THE FUTURE GROWTH OF HISPANIC CHILDREN
Hispanic Children Are Projected to be the Major Growing Group of Children 73 School-age Population (in millions) 54 total school-age pop Hispanic school-age pop 28 11 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, National Population Projections Released 2008
Hispanics Projected to be the Largest School-age Population by 2050 58% % of School-age Population 20% 38% 39% NH white Hispanic NH black NH asian 15% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, National Population Projections Released 2008 11% 4% 6% 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049
GROWING HISPANIC DEMAND FOR HIGHER EDUCATION
50% 18-to-24 Year-olds Enrolled in College All Race/ethnicities 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Historical Time Series on College Enrollment, http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/school.html
18-to-24 Year-olds Enrolled in College, by Major Race/ethnic Group 50% 40% 30% NH White Hispanic 20% Black 10% 0% 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Historical Time Series on College Enrollment, http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/school.html
Hispanic 18-to-24 Year-old High School Completion Hispanic 18-to-24 Year-olds Finishing High School 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Historical Time Series on College Enrollment, http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/school.html
18-to-24 Year-old High School Completers Enrolled in College 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Historical Time Series on College Enrollment, http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/school.html NH White Hispanic Black
Hispanics are a Growing Proportion of 18-to-24 Year-old College Students Hispanic Share of 18-to-24 Year-old College Students 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Historical Time Series on College Enrollment, http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/school.html
Hispanics are Soon to be the Largest Minority Among 18-to-24 Year-old College Students Share of 18-to-24 Year-old College Students 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% Hispanic Black 4% 2% 0% 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Historical Time Series on College Enrollment, http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/school.html
Hispanic Undergraduates are More Likely to Enroll at 2-year and Less-than-2-year Institutions 4 year 2-year less than 2-year 53% 58% 52% 56% 42% 40% 44% 43% 4% 1% 4% 1% Hispanic White Black Asian Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Fall 2009 IPEDS enrollment data
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THE HISPANIC PUBLIC SCHOOL POPULATION
Most Hispanic Students are not Limited English Speakers
Parental Education of Hispanic Public School Students % of Hispanic Students whose Parent(s) Did Not Complete High School 50.2% 42.3% % of Hispanic Students Whose Parent(s) Have Some College or More 52.8% 29.7% 23.9% 16.2% Foreign-Born Second Generation Third Generation+ Foreign-Born Second Generation Third Generation+ Source: Richard Fry and Felisa Gonzales, One-in-Five and Growing Fast: A Profile of Hispanic Public School Students, Pew Hispanic Center
DISPERSION AND SUBURBANIZATION
Counties with Largest Hispanic Populations, 1980
Counties with Largest Hispanic Populations, 2007
Where Were Concentrations in 1980? Almost All 15%+ Counties Along Border 14.6 Million Hispanics 6.4% of Total 1980 1990 2000 2007
Where Were Concentrations in 1990? Almost All 15%+ Counties Along Border, Still 22.4 Million Hispanics 9.0% of Total 1980 1990 2000 2007 236 Counties With 15%+ Hispanic
Where Were Concentrations in 2000? Fast Growth Away from Border 35.3 Million Hispanics 12.5% of Total 1980 1990 2000 2007 333 Counties With 15%+ Hispanic
Where Were Concentrations in 2007? Many Concentrations Emerge in Distant Areas 45.5 Million Hispanics 15.1% of Total 1980 1990 2000 2007 414 Counties With 15%+ Hispanic
Distribution of Hispanics by 1980 Hispanic County Population Size percent of 2007 Hispanics 58% 20% 16% 7% percent of 2000 Hispanics 62% 19% 14% 5% percent of 1990 Hispanics 68% 18% 12% 3% percent of 1980 Hispanics 68% 17% 12% 4% counties with 50,000 or more Hispanics 1980 (47) 10,000 to 49,999 Hispanics 1980 1,000 to 9,999 Hispanics 1980 less than 1,000 Hispanics 1980
HISPANIC YOUTH S GROWING SCHOOLING PARTICIPATION
More Latino Youth are Enrolling in School (% enrolled in school or college) 2007 2000 1990 1980 1970 Hispanic White 44 39 41 35 37 41 44 49 58 54 Black 38 41 45 49 53
Increased School Enrollment has Occurred Among Young Hispanic Women (% enrolled in school or college) Men 2007 1970 Hispanic White Black Hispanic Born Abroad Hispanic U.S.-Born Women 23 34 40 42 49 49 40 52 46 56 Hispanic White Black Hispanic Born Abroad Hispanic U.S.-Born 27 33 40 37 34 36 49 56 58 61 Note: Whites include only non-hispanic whites. Blacks include only non-hispanic blacks. Figures refer to 16-to-25 year-olds. Source: Pew Hispanic Center
Hispanic High School Dropout Rates Have Declined (status high school dropout rate, %) 2007 1970 Men Hispanic 22 32 White 6 15 Black 13 31 Hispanic Born Abroad 37 43 Hispanic U.S.- Born Women 12 27 Hispanic 15 36 White 5 15 Black 8 28 Hispanic Born Abroad 27 45 Hispanic U.S.- Born 9 31 Note: Whites include only non-hispanic whites. Blacks include only non- Hispanic blacks. Figures refer to 16-to-25 year-olds. Source: Pew Hispanic Center
Young Hispanic College Enrollment Rates Have Increased (% of high school completers enrolled in college) Men 2007 1970 Hispanic White Black Hispanic Born Abroad Hispanic U.S.-Born Women 23 23 34 31 38 39 34 41 30 48 Hispanic White Black Hispanic Born Abroad Hispanic U.S.-Born 19 20 21 19 25 34 44 48 49 54 Note: Whites include only non-hispanic whites. Blacks include only non-hispanic blacks. Figures refer to 16-to-25 year-olds. Source: Pew Hispanic Center
Hispanic Children Will Increasingly be Third Generation and Higher