HOW TO READ FORM LAB S GAME NOTES Form Lab s Game Notes are a quick and easy way to find bets for your short list each week. To get the best out of the Game Notes and find these most profitable angles, you can t just take them all at face value. Some Game Notes are stronger than others, something you can learn to spot with a little practice. This guide helps you understand the Game Notes more with tips on how to best find the strongest angles. If you have a question about how to use Form Lab or would like more information, please do get in touch via support@footballformlabs.com Yours, Dave Evans FORM LAB S POWERFUL GAME NOTES Form Lab s Game Notes use an algorithm to scan the team trends for any relevant betting ideas. This is an excellent shortcut to finding betting ideas for those without enough time to do their own research or for it to be used as a starting point for your own ideas. For example, the game note for Fulham vs Man City highlights the over 2.5 goals market as a good betting idea. Bet Idea: Over 2.5 match goals @ 1.92. The bookies give odds of 1.92 on there being over 2.5 goals in the match. P a g e 1
The game indeed ended with over 2.5 goals, landing a +0.92 points profit on the game. Two ways to access Form Lab s Game Notes: There are two ways to find Game Note ideas as follows: 1) Use the Game Notes tab. The quickest way to find Game Notes that highlight 2.5 goal opportunities is to click on the Game Notes tab at the top of the page and either search for the League that interests you, or search specifically for +2.5/-2.5 goals. Here s how to find ideas via the Leagues tab. Here s how to find ideas using the Markets tab 2) Use the Match Data Tab Another way to find Game Notes is to use the Match Data tab. You ll find the Game Notes in the bottom middle tab. P a g e 2
We suggest you use the Game Notes tab first then use the Match Data tab to help fine tune your selections. HOW TO READ THE GAME NOTES Form Lab s Game Notes are a powerful tool for short listing bets. The downside to Game Notes is that the algorithm produces a note for every game even if there isn t anything particularly strong in every match. For example the note might give you a home win trend because there s nothing else that stands out on that match, but that doesn t mean it s worth betting on. The bottom line is that Form Lab s Game Notes are powerful tools for short listing betting ideas, but are not enough on their own to form betting recommendations. The good news is that it s easy to learn how to read what the Game Note is really saying and spot strong opportunities from the weaker ones. How To Spot Strong Game Notes Each Game Note contains three trends as the example below from Fulham v Everton shows. The key components to the Game Notes are: P a g e 3
The Headline market: E.g. Match Outcome Trend 1 The first part of the first sentence. Trend 2 The second part of the first sentence. Thrend 3 The third sentence. The game note above is fairly strong and worthy of consideration. The first trend Fulham have won 8/11 home matches is complimented by the second trend Everton have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 trips to top half teams. The third trend also supports the match outcome idea Everton have lost 8/11 away matches against top half teams. Game Note Readers Guide: In an ideal world, all three trends would support the headline market, but it doesn t always work out like that! The strongest games notes offer stats for both teams in the first sentence that support the highlighted market, rather than just one team. Preferably also find Game Notes where the third stat (the second sentence) also supports the highlighted market. Be wary of games where the trends agree but the strength is weak E.g. 5/10 is much weaker than 8/10. Be wary of trends involving promoted/ relegated teams for the first 10 games of top divisions and the first 15 games of lower leagues. Be wary of all Game Notes until at least six games have been played in the season. The highlighted trends don t always match exactly, but can still offer support for the headline trend. For example, the headline market might be under 2.5 goals, but the trends refer to half time outcomes. If the trends are completely contradictory, you can ignore that game note, but there are some complimentary trends to be aware of. Draws: A draw trend tends to support an under 2.5 goal trend and vice versa as the majority of draws involve two goals or less. Likewise a match outcome home or away win tends to support over 2.5 goals. HT Outcome: A half time draw trend offers even more support for an under 2.5 goal trend as most half time draws are 0-0. Likewise a half time home or away win tends to support over 2.5 goals. First goal: First goal notes tend to offer support for a match outcome bet because the team that scores first tends to win. You could back the first goal market directly or use it as evidence for a home/ away win. Double check this trend with further research. PREMIER LEAGUE GAME NOTE WALKTHROUGH Working through the Game Notes is not an exact science, but if we take the Game Notes as a starting point, we can quickly fine tune our weekend betting shortlist. To start with, have a good read of the Game Notes on the following page. We ll then pick them apart to find the strongest options, with further analysis to whittle down our list further. See if your analysis agrees with ours. P a g e 4
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Game Note Analysis Running through the game notes, we could quickly pass on three game notes. For simplicity we have put them aside, but you may wish to mark them down or consider lower staking rather than rejecting entirely. 1) Swansea v Chelsea: The second sentence here has nothing to do with the first trend mentioned. 2) West Ham v Man City: There is nothing about Man City in the first sentence and the second trend mentioned is unrelated. NB in this case, the third trend contradicted the first two trends and actually was a strong statistic to notice. 3) Liverpool v Newcastle: The first trend refers to Newcastle only, while the second trend has nothing to do with the first trend and is actually contradictory. Match Data The other seven game notes all look quite appealing so now move onto the Match Data screen to check a greater array of stats. It is also useful to have some odds to hand at this stage. Man Utd v Arsenal (Home W/W): Not surprisingly both rank very highly for most key indicators. However, the Top 3 match indicators (in bottom right of screen) highlight Home Concede Last and Home 2 nd Half Lose, and MU look a touch too short at 1.69 to win the game so this is probably best avoided. P a g e 6
Fulham v Everton (Home Win): Fulham rank 2 nd for win profitability for their last 20 home games so the home win game note looks very good. They also rank 1 st for conceding first in their last 10 home games against top six teams so that could put us off. However, Everton are the weakest of the top six teams and Fulham are a good price so this perhaps needs further analysis to see how they do against all top-half teams. Norwich v Stoke (Home Sc 1 st ): The key indicators, both last 10 versus opposition type and last 20 versus all teams, line up pretty well for the Norwich to score first game note for both teams. Spurs v Wigan (Home Sc 1 st ): Surprisingly, Wigan are very profitable for away wins, while Spurs are one of the least profitable for their last 20 home games. The Top 3 match indicators highlight the Draw/Win and the HT 0-0 which given Spurs are 1.33 for the win might be worth a look but the Score 1 st or W/W are probably too short. Sunderland v Aston Villa (HT Draw): These two are topping the draw profitability tables so HT Draw makes a lot of sense here. They are also both at the top of the fail to score charts so the HT 0-0 may also be worth considering. QPR v Reading (Home Sc 1 st ): Neither have won a game yet this season but QPR are at the top of the last 20 home win profitability and Reading are clearly there for the taking. Has one or the other had a really tough fixture list to explain their poor record this season? WBA v Southampton (WBA Home Win): The league table shows Southampton have lost more matches and conceded more goals than any other side, and have lost all 4 on the road while WBA have won 4/5 at home this season. Conclusion from Match Data: So from this we have ruled out the Man Utd v Arsenal game and lined up a few specific questions about a couple of other games whilst strengthening our opinions on some others. USING PRE MATCH QUERIES TO FINE TUNE YOUR RESEARCH At this stage it is worth running off a few standard queries such as: Home/Away vs all teams since start of last season, All matches since start of last season, Home/Away vs opposition type, and sometimes a headto-head query. Then if teams aren t easily categorised or are perhaps in particularly good, bad form, have changed managers etc then some more specific queries can be useful. P a g e 7
Fulham v Everton: Fulham s home record has been excellent in past year but Everton have lost only 1/18 matches. Fulham have drawn 9/18 home games against TH finishers in the past two seasons so the draw looks a potential bet and they have a terrible head-to-head record against Everton so there are now reasons to support all three match outcomes and the match is probably best avoided. No Bet Norwich v Stoke: Norwich were W6-D3-L0 at home against bottom-half finishers last season (scoring first in 7/9) and beat Arsenal in last home game. Stoke are winless in 14 away games and have conceded first in 16/24 away since start of last season. Bet - Home Sc 1 st Spurs v Wigan: Spurs first half record is a bit inconsistent and this game looks hard to find the best value. No Bet Sunderland v Aston Villa: Villa have been poor this season but actually have a good first half record and with both teams struggling to win the HT draw looks a good bet. Bet - HT Draw QPR v Reading: QPR s last 7 matches have been against teams currently in the top 9, although Reading are also yet to play any of the current bottom 7. Reading are a promoted team and QPR are fairly short so it may be best to leave this match alone for now. No Bet WBA v Southampton: WBA s home form has been excellent this season and match reports suggest they ve been very unlucky to not get anything out of their last two matches, against Newcastle and Man City. Home Win At this point team news may affect our choice of bets and Form Lab Black Player can help assess this. Results: Norwich scored first @ odds of 2.0, Sunderland v Aston Villa drew at Half Time @ 2.10 and West Brom won easily at odds of 1.75. ====================================================================================== If you have a question about how to use Form Lab or would like more information, please do get in touch via support@footballformlabs.com http://www.footballformlabs.com P a g e 8