Political Forecast for 2016 Dr. Susan A. MacManus University of South Florida, Tampa Dept. of Govt. & Intl. Affairs Anthony Cilluffo, Georgia Pevy, David Bonanza Research Associates FSASE Canvassing Board Workshop January 14, 2016 SLIDESHOW FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY
Election Dynamics in 2016 Florida: key battleground state 2 major statewide races: President and U.S. Senate 3 major elections: Presidential Primary (March 15), Regular Primary (Aug. 30), General Election (Nov. 8) 2 major national party conventions (GOP July 18-21; DEM Week of July 25) Presidential debates in Florida Fundraising for campaigns at all levels Interface with national parties and PACs Constant barrage of political-related media New district lines U.S. Congress, state legislature
What s Different in 2016? Voter Attitudes Trust levels Fears Tone of Candidates, Ads Heightened Activism/Protests
Americans Distrustful of Govt.
An Era of Protests: Peaceful & Violent [E]veryone with a smartphone is now a reporter, news photographer, and documentary filmmaker. It s a wonder that every newspaper doesn t have a Protest section. Thomas L. Friedman New York Times January 13, 2016
Florida s Close!! 2010 Gov., 2012 Pres., 2014 Gov. Results Scott 48.9% Sink 47.7% Obama 50.0% Romney 49.1% Scott 48.2% Crist 47.1% Turnout
Florida: Nation s Premier Swing State
What is a Swing State? Diversity Race/ethnicity Age Economic Party Affiliation Ability to Pick Winning Candidate
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Nov-15 Percent (%) Voter Registration Pattern: 1972-2015 100 90 80 70 60 Republican 50 Democrat 40 Other 30 20 10 0
Racial/Ethnic Vote: FL
Generations in 2016
Why Look at Generations? Generational differences, especially in racial and ethnic composition, political preferences, and news sources, have become a major focal point of today s campaigns. Analyses of the two super generations, the Millennials and the Baby Boomers, have made it clear that successful campaigns need to micro-target women voters differently across generations, sometimes even within the same party.
Living Generations: Major Life Events, Presidents Generation Born Age (2016) Major Events Presidents* Greatest Generation/GI Generation Before 1928 89+ World War II, The Great Depression, The New Deal Franklin Delano Roosevelt The Silent Generation 1928-1945 The Baby Boomers 1946-1964 71-88 Postwar Happiness, Era of Conformity, Korean War 52-70 Civil Rights Movement, 60s Youth Culture Save the World Activism, Drugs, Free Love, Vietnam War Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and Jimmy Carter Generation X 1965-1980 36-51 MTV, 24-hour news, latch-key kids, transition to computers, AIDS Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and Bill Clinton Millennials/Generation Y After 1980 18 to 35** 9/11, Social Media, Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, Great Recession, BP oil spill George W. Bush and Barack Obama
Young v. Old Voters: FL
Reaching Younger Voters
Gender in 2016
Pundit Prediction There are plenty of subplots in the unfolding [2016] presidential election, but the gender fight is among the most interesting of them and one that will be critical to the outcome. Charlie Cook, political analyst, National Journal, June 27, 2015
Gender Gap: FL
Women in 2016 Women candidates are becoming more effective at combatting gender stereotypes. Virtually every major campaign now has female managers, strategists, pollsters, and consultants on board to ensure that female voters are targeted and mobilized. Women are everywhere in media campaign coverage as anchors, reporters, commentators, columnists, and bloggers.
Media Market Definitions
Margin of Victory in Media Market (Blue) DEM Victory (Red) REP Victory Margin of Victory 2010 GOV, 2012 PRES, 2014 GOV Media Markets Overall Turnout: 50% 50 45 44 44 43 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 11 5 4 20 18 25 21 2827 23 23 20 5 1 5 11 10 9 30 37 33 23 15 11 3 2 1
A Decade of Changes to Florida s Election System More Uniformity New Voting Equipment Ballot-Testing Early (Convenience) Voting More Efficient Voter Education Centralized Voter Registration System Better Protection Against Disenfranchisement at the Polls Protecting the Rights of Military and Overseas Civilians Checking Voter Ineligibility
Issues Important to Base: GOTV (Turnout) Mechanisms Democrats Minimum Wage Restoration of felon voting rights Income Inequality Medicaid expansion Election processes Gun control/stand Your Ground Police conduct/sentencing disparities Reproductive rights Marijuana legalization Cost of education Environment Social Services Republicans Economy/economic development Jobs Immigration Taxes/Tax Breaks & Incentives Government spending 2 nd Amendment/Gun rights Religious freedom Common Core? Uber/Lyft Law Enforcement Funding School choice Fraud in registration/voting/illegals
Potential Election Controversies in 2016 Registration Online Registration The Voter Registration Roll Absentee Ballots Provisional Ballot Invalidation Early In-Person Voting Average Wait Time in Line to Vote Disabled Voters and Touch Screen Voting Machines Felons Waiting to Have Their Voting Rights Restored Inaccurate Public Opinion Polls
Horse Race Polls Under Attack
Voting Process IS Being Closely Watched in 2016 We ve got to make it easier to vote, not harder. We need to modernize it for the way we live now. This is America. We want to make it easier for people to participate. And over the course of this year, I intend to travel the country to push for reforms that do just that. President Barack Obama State of the Union Address January 12, 2016
Teamwork Needed More Than Ever Neither other elected officials nor voters think much about the resources necessary to running elections, unless something goes wrong. [Yet] there is zero tolerance for error in elections, so elections officials are constantly challenged with maintaining perfection on tighter and shrinking budgets. Chair of the National Elections Assistance Commission (EAC)
Voters Grade the 2014 Election Process (Rank Order: Strongest to Weakest) 1. Making it convenient to vote (68%) 2. Providing highly dependable election equipment (53%) 3. Informing citizens about election laws and procedures (50%)
USF-NIELSEN STATEWIDE SURVEY: FOCUS ON ISSUES AND POLICIES sunshinestatesurvey.org
Turnout in Presidential Election Increases (Florida Data) Presidential 2008 75% Presidential Preference Primary 42% Governor 2010 (midterm) 49% Presidential 2012 72% Presidential Preference Primary 41% Governor 2014 (midterm) 50%
Percent of Voters (%) 100 Florida Presidential Election-Year Voter Turnout, 1960-2012 90 80 70 77% 74% 79% 74% 77% 77% 75% 73% 83% 67% 70% 74% 75% 72% 60 59% 58% 58% 56% 50 40 30 20 10 44% 43% 43% 31% 32% 36% 33% 31% 38% 35% 29% 26% 25% 26% 19% 20% 42% 41% 18% 21% 0 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Presidential Preference Primary First Primary General Election
Sharpest Increase in Turnout in Presidential Elections Young Voters Minorities (African Americans; Hispanics) Unmarried Females
Convenience Voting on the Rise Source: Data available from the Florida Division of Elections.
Florida Picks Winners!
Expectations Going Into 2016: Close, AGAIN! Swing State!
Florida Politics at Your Fingertips
Florida: Nation s Premier Swing State
Florida: Nation s Premier Swing State
Florida Political Parties: Major & Minor Major Political Parties Florida Democratic Party (DEM) Republican Party of Florida (REP) Minor Political Parties America s Party of Florida (AIP) Constitution Party of Florida (CPF) Ecology Party of Florida (ECO) Florida Socialist Workers Party (FSW) Green Party of Florida (GRE) Independence Party of Florida (IDP) Independent Party of Florida (INT) Justice Party of Florida (JPF) Libertarian Party of Florida (LPF) Party for Socialism and Liberation-Florida Peace & Freedom Party of Florida (PFP) (PSL) Tea Party of Florida (TPF) Reform Party (REF)
Urban-Suburban-Rural Split