Utah s Demographic Transformation A View into the Future Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. University Of Utah December 3, 2009 Based on a paper with the same title, available on-line: www.bebr.utah.edu
Utah: Trend Toward Nation 5.0 Total Fertility Rates 3.8 4.3 3.6 2.5 1.3 2.5 2.1 0 Utah 1960 2006 U.S.
Utah: Trend Toward Nation 6 Household Size 4.5 5.17 5.27 3 1.5 3.15 2.62 0 Utah 1900 2008 U.S.
Utah: Trend Toward Nation Median Age 37.0 32.8 35.3 36.8 28.5 24.3 27.1 28.7 20.0 Utah 2000 2008 U.S.
Utah: Trend Toward Nation Minority Share 40% 34.4% 30% 20% 18.3% 10% 0% 1.9% 11.4% Utah U.S. 1960 2008
U.S. Population Growth: 1900-2005 3% 2.4% High Immigration, High Fertility Immigration Restrictions Baby Boom Annual Percentage Change 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0% Flu Epidemic and WWI Great Depression Moderate Immigration, Low Fertility Growth Rate -0.6% 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
U.S. Population by Region: 1900-2030 150 Millions of Persons 120 90 60 South Midwest Northeast West 30 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005.
Utah: Net Migration, Natural Increase, and Population Change 5% 4% Natural Increase Net Migration Population Change 3% Annual Rates 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: BEBR, University of Utah Analysis of UPEC data.
Utah and U.S. Annual Births 70 U.S. Boom Peak: 1957 U.S. Echo Peak: 1990 2008 US Births Exceed 1957 5.0 Utah Births (thousands) 53 35 18 Utah Boom Peak: 1962 Utah Echo Peak: 1980-2 Utah Echo Echo Peak: 2010?? 3.8 2.5 1.3 US Births (Millions) 0 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Utah US 0
Utah School Age Population: Historical & Projected 900,000 750,000 High Economic Growth and Fertility 2002 Baseline Low Economic Growth and Fertility 2005 GOPB Baseline 600,000 450,000 300,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: Perlich and Reeve, The Coming Boom in Utah s School Age and College Age Populations, Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee. Births updated 2/2008. 10
Utah Population 18-24 Years Old: Historical & Projected 500,000 400,000 18-24: High Economic Growth, High Fertility 18-24: Baseline 18-24: Low Economic Growth, Low Fertility Cumulative Births 18-24 years prior Bureau of Census 2005 GOPB 2005 300,000 200,000 Age wave hits college ages 2016-2025 100,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: Perlich and Reeve, The Coming Boom in Utah s School Age and College Age Populations, Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee. Births updated 2/2008.
U.S. Foreign Born Population: 1900 2008 20% 38.1 40 Foreign Born Share of Total Population 15% 10% 5% 14.7% Share Millions 12.6% 30 20 10 Number of Foreign Born (Millions) 0% 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 0 Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and 2007 American Community Survey), Pew Hispanic Center, BEBR Calculations.
Utah Foreign Born Population: 1900 2008 Foreign Born Share of Total Population 20% 15% 10% 5% 19.4% 17.6% 13.1% 9.5% 6% Share 4.3% 3.6% Number 2.8% 3.5% 3.4% 226,440 7.1% 8.3% 250 200 150 100 50 Number of Foreign Born (Thousands) 0% 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 0 Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and 2007 American Community Survey), Pew Hispanic Center, BEBR Calculations.
Top Occupations of Utah s Foreign Born Assemblers & Fabricators Cooks Maids/Housekeeping Construction Laborers Janitors Production Workers Cashiers Grounds Maintenance Workers Laborers / Material Movers, Retail Salespersons Customer Service Rep. Waiters and Waitresses Truck Drivers Carpenters Post-secondary Teachers Misc. Agricultural Workers Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2000, 5% PUMS.
Top Occupations Concentration Ratios of Utah s Foreign Born Medical Scientists Maids and Housekeepers Packaging Machine Operators Fence Erectors Plasterers & Stucco Masons Sewing Machine Operators Chefs and Head Cooks Misc. Assemblers Misc. Media Workers Woodworking Mach. Ops. Grinding, etc. Machine Ops. Astronomers & Physicists Dishwashers Drywall Installers Baggage Porters Dancers & Choreographers Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2000, 5% PUMS.
Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Males 25 Years and Older (2000) College Graduate or Greater 30% 31% 22% 28% 18% High School or Greater 55% 62% 75% 87% 90% Less than High School 13% 10% 25% 38% 46% Total Native Born Foreign Born Naturalized Not a Citizen Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS 0% 23% 45% 68% 90%
Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Females 25 Years and Older (2000) College Graduate or Greater 22% 22% 21% 21% 21% High School or Greater 67% 60% 78% 88% 90% Less than High School 12% 10% 22% 33% 40% Total Native Born Foreign Born Naturalized Not a Citizen Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Utah s Foreign Born Population: 1900 v. 2007 Europe 95% Northern America 5% Africa Oceania 2% 3% Asia 2.5% Europe 11% Asia 18% Latin America 63% Northern America 2.5% 1900 2007
Minority Share of the Population: U.S., State of Utah, Salt Lake County 60% 48% 36% 24% 12% 11% 12% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 0% US Salt Lake State of Utah 17% 5% 20% 8% 10% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 8% 9% 6% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010 2030 2050 24% 31% 19% 15% 34% 35% 24% 27% 18.3%19% 40% 32% 34% 37% 22% 45% 49% 54% 41% 25% 27% 30% Sources: Bureau of the Census, Gibson and Jung (2002), Perlich (2002), BEBR
Minority Share by Age Group: Utah and Salt Lake County 2008 0.4 34.7% 33.5% Salt Lake County Utah 0.3 29.9% 25.4% 24.5% 26.6% 26% 30.1% 27.9% 24.7% 2008 Average State Share 22.3% 22.6% 22.3% 21.8% 0.2 19.6% 16.1% 18.3% 19.5% 19.5% 16.2% 15.3% 18.3% 0.1 13.9% 12.8% 13.2% 12.7% 12.5% 11.1% 11.2% 9.8% 10.3% 9.1% 9.5% 8.4% 7.5% 7% 6.7% 0 < 5 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 Sources: Bureau of the Census, 2008 Population Estimates.
U.S. Minority Share by Age Group: 2010-2050 70% 52.5% 45% 49% 54% 58% 62% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 55% 50% 46% 40% 42% 35% 35% 29% 35% 20% 24% 17.5% 0% Under 18 18 through 64 65 years and Older Source: Bureau of the Census.
Minority Contribution to Utah Population and School Enrollment Growth: 2000 to 2007 Population Growth Enrollment Growth Minority 33% White Non-Hispanic 35% White Non-Hispanic 67% Minority 65%
Educational Transition Points 100 Latina/o Elementary Students 40 High School Graduates 100 White Elementary Students 84 High School Graduates 4 College Graduates 1 Graduate School Completion <1 Doctorate 26 College Graduates 10 Graduate School Completion 1 Doctorate Source: Octavio Villalpando, University of Utah
Selected Age Group Projections for State of Utah 1,200,000 Less than 5 years old 1,133,594 5 through 17 years old 960,000 60 years and older 65 years and older 60+ > 5-17 998,411 899,392 85+ 720,000 480,000 422,550 240,000 177,255 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Selected Age Group Projections for State of U.S. 120,000,000 96,000,000 Less than 5 years old 5 through 17 years old 60 years and older 65 years and older 85+ 72,000,000 2009: 60+ > 5-17 53,159,113 48,000,000 24,000,000 35,107,491 19,197,434 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2046