The State of World Tuna Professor Glenn Hurry Executive Director WCPFC Pohnpei FSM
Topics for today Overview of world tuna stocks Catch Status The WCPO Why because it is 60% of world tuna and its potential to effect supply and price Economics and markets Future Challenges Fleets Demographics The future
Regional Tuna Management Organizations (SPC)
Global Tuna catches 2012 (SPC)
Global Skipjack Catch 2012 (SPC)
Global yellow-fin catch 2012
Global Big-eye catch 2012
Global Albacore Catch 2012
Global catches of Bluefin
Bluefin quota/catch 2012 Fishery Location 2012 2013 2014 CCSBT Pacific/Ind 10,499 10,949 12,449 ICCAT East Med East Atl 13,500 13,500 ICCAT West US/Can/Mex 1,750 1,750 Pacific Bluefin Nth Pac/Mex 21, 285 Unk Unk Total 46,034
So what is the status? 23 stocks; 6 albacore, 4 bigeye, 4 bluefin, 5 skipjack and 4 yellowfin stocks). In 2012, of the 4.46 mt global catch 58% was skipjack 28% yellowfin 9% bigeye and 5 % albacore Bluefin tuna is only 1% of global catch All Bluefins are overfished 3 have recovery plans in place and 1 (WCPFC) needs serious attention
Global status of tuna stocks W. Atlantic E. Atlantic Indian E. Pacific W. Pacific Skipjack Yellowfin Bigeye Albacore Key N. Atlantic S. Atlantic Indian N. Pacific Overfished and overfishing rebuilding plan in place Overfished OR overfishing. Not overfished, nor is overfishing occurring S. Pacific From Int. Seafood Sustainability Foundation (ISSF)
The Western and Central Pacific Ocean Tuna Fisheries The worlds last great fishery 2.6 MMT in 2012 (6.5 mill steers) 60% of the worlds tuna catch 8 PNA countries=40% of w skj 85% of catch from EEZs ex-boat $7 billion USD ex-boat price from PIC s $4 b 43 Members, Territories and CNMs
WCPFC Convention Area
PNA with EEZ water area 14.8Km 2 50% bigger than China mainland 40% of World Skipjack production!
WCP-CA Tuna Catch by gear Highlighting 2012 catches (P Williams SPC) 2012 Provisional estimates Total Catch 2,613,528 mt (highest on record...) Purse seine 1,816,503 mt (69% ; record...) Longline 262,076 mt (10% ; stable ) Pole-and-line 224,207 mt (9% ; lowest since late-1960s) Other (mainly ID/PH artisanal) (11%)
WCP-CA Tuna Catch by species Highlighting 2012 catches (P Williams SPC) 2012 Provisional estimates SKJ : 1,664,309 mt (64%; 3 rd highest...) YFT : 655,668 mt (25% ; clear record ) BET : 161,679 mt (6% ; highest since 2004...) ALB : 131,872 mt (5%; 2 nd highest...) ALB (S Pac) : 87,012 mt (stable; 2 nd highest...) ALB (N Pac) : 81,525 mt
Stock Status Overview Kobe Plot
The WCPFC Purse Seine Fishery
Why are Ocean conditions Fish have specific preferences Within those conditions, attracted to areas of high food concentration
WCP-CA Purse seine fishery Seasonal distribution of the purse-seine catch, 2000-2011 vs 2012 average for 2000 2011 La Nina 2012 El Nino
WCP-CA Purse seine fishery Number of vessels
WCP-CA Purse seine fishery Annual catch (mt) by species and effort - Highlighting 2012 catches 2012 Provisional estimates TOTAL : 1,816,503 mt ( Highest on record) SKJ : 1,348,554 mt (74%; 2 nd highest after 2009 ) YFT : 398,464 mt (22% 2 nd highest after 2008) BET : 69,164 mt (4% stable; 5 th highest on record; similar to 2011 catch level)
WCP-CA Purse seine fishery Trends in the proportion of EFFORT and CATCH by set type (major fleets) EFFORT Unassociated CATCH 2012 Effort = 65% 2012 Catch = 53% Drifting FAD 2012 Effort = 25% 2012 Catch = 36%
The long line fishery.and now the not so good news..
WCP-CA Longline fishery Vessel numbers Domestic PIC vessel numbers will depend on charter arrangements
WCP-CA Longline fishery Growth in domestic fisheries S. Pacific ALB, 1999, 2003 and 2012 1999 2003 2012 (includes estimated charter-fleet effort)
WCP-CA Longline fishery Annual catch (mt) by species - Highlighting 2012 catches (prov.) 2012 Provisional estimates TOTAL : 262,076 mt ( 5 th highest...stable on recent years...) YFT : 85,245 mt (32% - lowest for 4 years...) BET : 76,599 mt (29% - stable) ALB : 98,854 mt (37% - 3 rd highest...) (+ small amount of SKJ)
Economic and market information
The Pacific Tuna fishery Boat price $7 billion USD Pacific Islands fishery around $4 bill Income from Access (inc VDS) around $300-350m (8%) PIC Fishery Vessel days $900 to $6,500 There are some 12,000 direct jobs to Pacific islanders in commercial tuna industry $300+ mill to GDP in pacific island countries 45% GDP Tuvalu.50-60% Kiribati 50% of non Compact income for FSM
Cannery Requirements
Skipjack prices (4-7.5lbs, c&f) and Yaizu (ex-vessel) monthly and 12 monthly moving averages (Dr Chris Read) Skipjack prices, Bangkok (4-7.5lbs, c&f) and Yaizu (ex-vessel) monthly and 12 month moving average Note: The Bangkok prices shown in the above figure are indicative figures only. They reflect estimates of the mid-point of prices paid during the respective month based on information received from a range of sources
Purse seine Economic Overview WCPFC purse seine fishery Catch, delivered value of catch and composite price, 1997-2012 Dr Chris Read FFA SKJ SKJ: Est. value in 2012 ~$2,893m ( $884m, 44%) Catch 15% Price 25% YFT YFT: Est. value in 2012 ~$1,012m ( $277m, 38%) Catch 29% Price 7%
Purse seine Economic Overview All tuna in the WCPFC purse seine fishery Catch, delivered value of catch and composite price, 1997-2012 2012: US$4,054m Increase of US$1,190m (42%) on 2011 SKJ $884m (44%) YFT $277m (38%)
Longline Japan and US Yellowfin prices, 1997-2013 YFT Prices in JPY, 1997-2013 Long-term 2013 first half Prices: imports: Broadly Overall & volumes stagnant downtrends moderate improvements in JPY, in import steady volumes, relative to same period in 2012 but at cost of uptrend significant in for US$ Japan reduced import volumes: Japan fresh total imports Import prices from all 10% sources decline in 2012 Japan fresh import prices from 2012 66% 900/kg from peak ($11.28), 5% in 2001, from all sources: 931/Kg ($9.86/Kg), 36,500Mt to 12,300Mt. Fresh loin & 4% but import volume 5%; Japan fillets on Import increase fresh from Oceania 2012 879/kg ($10.97), 2% US market import prices: $10.34/ Japan imports from Oceania Kg, 3 per cent but imports Yaizu 3% to (fresh/frozen) 3,232Mt ( LL) 2012 63% marginally 607/kg from 1% high ($7.61), 10% of 8,800Mt in 2001 US imports fresh from all sources 2% in 2012 to 15,830Mt as 2012 prices US$9.64/Kg (f.a.s.) 6% 6% to US$9.64/kg 12% from 17,985Mt in 2007 Overall downtrend since 2007 but almost steady at just under 160,000Mt in last three years. YFT Prices in US$, 1997-2013
Longline - Japan and US Bigeye prices, 1997-2013 (C Read) BET Prices in JPY, 1997-2013 BET Prices in US$, 1997-2013 Long-term Prices & volumes Fresh BET first Import half 2013: trends: Mixed BET Price trends Broadly stagnant / declining Long-term Japan fresh Prices: bigeye Broadly import stagnant in JPY, steady uptrend in US$ 2012: prices: Mixed 937/Kg ($9.85/Kg), 1%; Volume 13% 2012: mixed performances Japan total imports US 12% import in 2012 price: $8.31/Kg), 5%; volume Japan Import fresh from all 40% since 3% 2002 from 22,000Mt to sources 13,300Mt. Fresh loin & fillets on 924/kg ($11.58), 6% increase Japan Import fresh from Oceania Japan 1,076/kg, From ($13.49) Oceania 4% to 2,541Mt ( LL, there was a 41% Japan increase selected in 2011) ports frozen 64% 946/kg from ($11.86), 7% high of 7,189Mt in 2002 US US total imports imports fresh from all 24% sources in 2012 to 3,011Mt as prices US$8.98/Kg (f.a.s.) only marginally rose to $8.98/kg (new peak). 49% from 7,312Mt peak in 03 Almost consistent downtrend since 03
Longline Economic Overview Albacore Prices, 1997-2013 Thai First imports: half 2013: US$3,534/Mt, 16% BKK benchmark from US$3,044/Mt has retreated in 2011. significantly, Volume reflec`ve 24% to of 53,516Mt abundant supplies, following and a decline of averaged 12% in only 2011$2,564, 25% BKK lower benchmark compared (10Kg+) to the same 2012: period $3,286/Mt, last year. 18% on 2011 (highest to date - poor landings mostly that reversed later in the year US fresh (f.a.s.) $4.71/kg, 3% from $4.56 in 2011. Import volume 747Mt, 12% as against 29 % in 2011. Japan Selected ports fresh 2012: Prices 295/Kg ($3.70/ kg) 2 %. Landings 23% to 42,096Mt. In 2011 prices 7% while landings 13%
What might happen in the market? If we knew would be laying on a beach Purse seine price predicted to stay high.medium term impact driven by product availability from WCPO. Longline few industry insiders predicting any major change.. viability of fleets? Bigeye catch will continue to reduce Albacore to stay down due to oversupply Bluefin tunas quota rising in the CCSBT and in ICCAT; WCPO bluefin will need to reduce Watch the market it will reveal leakage Japan and China
The Future Changing nature of the fleet Population increase and food security
The fleet: modern Korean Purse Seiner
The big Koreans Built in 2008 cost approx $22-25 mill Length 74.5 metres 5 mile radius side sonar, 24 mile bird radar ULT Freezer capacity In 2012, 15,000 tonnes mainly FAD free fish Profit in 2012 probably over $20 mill 18 vessels over 10,000t and 43 over 8,000t catch Returns driving construction of new vessels 23 more PS over 70 metres under construction 22 over 50 metres Large integrated multi national companies
Modern Chinese Longliner
Changes to Longlining Built in 2008 one of 200 Chinese vessels of this class 26.5 metres long crew of 13 ULT freezer capacity Subsidized Principally fishing in the albacore fishery south More efficient then the older Japanese style longliner
Demographics World population: 7 billion (2012) 9.3 billion (2050)
What might all this mean? Population: further demand for seafood, higher prices, more difficult to manage Changes in main fishing nations? Old world new world fleets-longlining? Multi nationals companies vs flag control Resource access models (DWFN to CS) Food security and food affordability, GDP and artisanal markets Need improved RFMO decision making and strong ethical commitment to RFMOs
Will global tuna be sustainable? If we can: Get high level buy in and understanding Stop building more boats(ps and Longline) Focus on companies as well as countries Harness market pressure, certification, traceability etc Improving catch monitoring, stronger port controls, transshipping and market data; and Feed the increased population Then maybe
Thanks for having me
Price comparison of monthly and 12 monthly averages of landed fresh and frozen SBT at selected major Japanese ports (Dr Chris Read FFA) $US Per Kg
Impact of FADs Source P Miyake