THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 12/26/17 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO Welcome back to another installment of the Pick 4 Matrix at Santa Anita Park, as the Winter Meeting gets underway with an excellent Boxing Day card, featuring nine races, four of them graded-stakes events. In fact, three of today s $1 Million Guaranteed Late Pick 4 races are graded-stakes, with two Grade Ones and a Grade Two adding to the festivities. What a way to celebrate the most wonderful time of the year! Let s see if we can get off on the good foot in this very competitive Pick 4 sequence. LEG 1 (R6): The first of three graded-stakes races kicks off today s Pick 4 the $200K Mathis Brothers Mile (G2), a one-mile turf affair for 3-year-olds only. There are some really nice stretch-runners in here, but there isn t any pace on paper, so it will be interesting to see how this race unfolds. The rails are at 0-feet, however, so that at least gives the late runners a fighting chance on a turf course that typically favors forwardly placed runners. #1 KROY (6/1) has done very nice work in South Florida, using his sharp early speed to attend the pace and be the master of his own destiny. That speed will serve him very well in a race that lacks other forwardly placed types, so Castellano who takes the call will give this guy every chance to wire the field from the cozy inside slot. Will he be good enough to fend off some classier stretch-runners? GRADE: B. #2 B SQUARED (5/1) is a versatile horse who has done good work on both turf and dirt, so it s interesting to me that O Neill chooses this Grade 2 on turf instead of trying the Grade 1 Malibu going 7- furlongs on dirt. This guy is perfectly fine on turf, but his three turf races have come against weaker Calbred company, so he ll have to show he can hang with some proven graded-stakes turf runners in here. GRADE: X. #3 COLONIST (4/1) is another versatile sort who has done decent work on both surfaces, but he hasn t been able to get to the wire first in two turf tries including a recent defeat to two of today s rivals. He also lost to B Squared on dirt back in July, so he ll need to do better than he s shown to get the nod today. That said, you know he ll get a great ride from C-Nak, who should have this guy in a very good stalking spot early on. GRADE: X. #4 HARBOUR MASTER (GB) (8/1) always hinted at talent, but it took him a while to finally get his first U.S. win, which he did at Del Mar against age-restricted N1X types going today s distance. It was a really nice race, showing off a strong turn of foot while rallying from off the pace despite a very slow early pace. He ll need a step forward today, however, since a few of these have him on form and I m not crazy about the jock change (Espinoza takes over for Desormeaux, who sticks with Bowies Hero). GRADE: X. #5 BOWIES HERO (7/2) is a cool horse who rarely runs a bad race, but Big Score has gotten the better of him quite a few times this year, so he ll need to turn the tables on that rival but it s certainly
possible, since he did beat Big Score as a 2-year-old, and he now gets to cut back to his best distance after three straight races at 9-furlongs. GRADE: B. #6 HOLIDAY STONE (8/1) has picked up a lot of checks, but he hasn t been able to do the business since he broke his maiden way back in October 2016. He is a little tactical, however, so he should get the right trip in here if he s good enough. A few of these have him on form, but I do like that he s making the third start of his form cycle, and note that he did just run a much-improved second against older N2X foes last time. He looks a little sneaky in here. GRADE: A. #7 HOOTIE (15/1) has been his own worst enemy, always refusing to settle early on and wasting much-needed energy during the early stages of the race. In fact, I loved him last time when Prat took the reins when this guy was looking to clear his N1X hurdle, but he was rank a bit early and never looked comfortable and then he failed to kick on. He s a better animal than he s shown, and maybe Van Dyke can get him to relax early, but this is a tough group for a horse who still hasn t seemed to have figured things out. GRADE: X. #8 BIG SCORE (5/2) is a professional racehorse, always showing up for business even at the highest levels of the division. The only concern is that he s had a hard time finding the wire lately, running second or third in six of his last seven starts. On the plus side, Prat stays put, and this guy is getting back to a mile after finding himself getting outkicked while running 9-furlongs. GRADE: A. LEG 2 (R7): Today s second leg is our first Grade 1 of the sequence, the $300K La Brea (G1), a 7-furlong sprint for 3- year-old fillies. It s a fascinating race because we ve got two much-ballyhooed and brilliant (yet sometimes disappointing) ladies in Paradise Woods and Unique Bella squaring off against each other but we also have several other horses who have shown brilliant early speed, making this a race that has all the makings of a meltdown. Unfortunately, the stretch-runners don t look nearly as talented, so we re left with deciding: do we take the most talented girls in the race or do we stick by the age-old adage of pace makes the race? # 1 MISS SUNSET (5/1), the first Bonde entrant, is already more than halfway toward being a millionaire, so you know she s legit, something she showed when capturing the Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland back in October after she had been beating up on state-breds here in SoCal. She s been freshened since that graded-stakes victory, so she ll be fresh and ready today but she s a gal who likes to be part of the pace, and with so many speedsters in here (and with her having to break from the tricky rail), the race shape just doesn t set up well for her. GRADE: C. #2 MARLEY S FREEDOM (20/1) has been a new animal under Hess s tutelage, winning two of three, including a sharp victory against older N1X foes at Del Mar. She s also versatile, showing that she can either attend the pace or come off it a skill that will serve her well in a race filled with speedballs. Castellano riding won t hurt either the only question is: will she be good enough? She ll need a big step forward for sure, but she could pick up a slice if the race falls apart. GRADE: X. #3 UNIQUE BELLA (9/5) has such an abundance of talent, but she still acts like a girl who is figuring things out. She was 11/10 in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), but she couldn t relax early and weakened badly. Being toward the inside today with a lot of speed in here doesn t favor her either, but if Smith can get her to relax a little, that would go a long way. GRADE: B. #4 MOPOTISM (12/1) has done good work around two turns, so she ll be as fit as a fiddle cutting back from much longer races. I ve always been a big fan of the route-to-7-furlong move, and the race shape should give this gal every chance to show her best stuff. She has a lot of lengths to make up on a few of these, but she ll benefit from a quick early pace, making her a little interesting at a big price. At the very least, you should use her in your exotics if you don t think she s good enough to win. GRADE: A.
#5 FAYPIEN (6/1) has been beaten by a couple of these, but she should get the best trip in the race, since she knows how to track horses before pouncing. She ll need a big step forward today, but she s a lightly raced 3-year-old trained by Baffert, so would it shock you to see this gal run a career best? Not me. GRADE: B. #6 JUST A LITTLE HOPE (12/1) has done very good work as a closing sprinter, which is why it s a little surprising to me that Hendricks is adding blinkers for the first time today. I do like that she beat N1X elders two back, while last time, she ran a very good second against older N2X foes despite not having a pace to close into. She ll get the right pace today, but she will need to step things up a bit. GRADE: C. #7 PARADISE WOODS (8/5) has been feast or famine: she either runs off the screen or she gets pretty easily beat. That said, she is cutting back from route races, so perhaps Prat can get her to relax a little bit from this good outside post. I actually thought she ran okay last time in the Breeders Cup Distaff (G1), since she was part of the early pace but was overtaken by two closers to finish third. If she can replicate her maiden-breaker, where she tracked the pace and pounced, she could prove very tough (though the price is no bargain). GRADE: A. #8 PRINCESS KAREN (12/1), the second Bonde runner, is a pretty honest gal who has run decently against several of these, but she s also been beaten by several of these. All three of her wins have come on or near the lead, so the pace set-up doesn t work out that well for her, but at least she s drawn outside, and Desormeaux rarely gets caught up in speed duels. Still, she ll need to show some stick in the lane, since her last three races beyond 6-furlongs saw her lose lengths when the real running started. GRADE: X. LEG 3 (R8): Today s third leg is the 66 th running of the $300K Malibu (G1), a 7-furlong heat for 3-year-olds. This is always a fascinating race, and this year s renewal is no different. Curiously, unlike its sister race, the La Brea (G1), which is loaded with speed, this race has very little speed on paper. It also has a few invaders, so it will be very interesting to see what the jocks decide to do in this seemingly paceless affair. #1 CITY OF LIGHT (8/1) could have a serious pace advantage if Van Dyke can get him away cleanly from this tough rail post, since he has speed if he wants to use it. He s always been held in high regard, but note that the two times he raced beyond 6-furlongs, he lost lengths in the lane, including last time when Dabster ran him down. Still, he should have things his own way if he gets away cleanly. GRADE: X. #2 EDWARDS GOING LEFT (8/1) has run two very good races in a row, beating older N2X types and Cal-bred stakes foes, so he should appreciate a return to the sophomore ranks. Then again, this is a Grade 1, so there are no creampuffs here! Since he s drawn toward the inside, he should get a good tracking trip behind the rail horse, and then we ll see if he s good enough to fend off some decent stretch-runners. GRADE: X. #3 IRISH FREEDOM (5/1) would look great in here if there were any real speed on paper, but this router who can run all day will be at the mercy of trip and pace, cutting back from 9-furlongs. That said, he ll be super-fit and should be flying late, especially since he s a lightly raced 3-year-old in the good hands of Baffert. GRADE: C. #4 FAVORABLE OUTCOME (3/1) ran a hole in the wind at the Big A, beating N2X foes as the 19/10 favorite. That race should have him tuned up nicely for this spot and the class is here, since he took the Swale (G2) at Gulfstream Park earlier in the year. Castellano will need to be aggressive early, but he knows the deal. GRADE: A. #5 THE STREET FIGHTER (30/1) adds blinkers after being unable to clear the Cal-bred N1X hurdle mostly because this off-the-pace runner has always gotten going too late. The blinkers should
help a bit, but this guy has been a beaten-favorite in all four of his races against winners, and this is the toughest field he s ever faced. GRADE: X. #6 PAVEL (4/1) has run well routing, so it will be interesting to see him get back around oneturn, something he successfully tried in his debut when he looked sharp breaking his maiden going 6.5- furlongs. I m a fan of the turn-back move, so I would definitely use this guy in your exotics, but I m not sure the pace will set up well for him at all. Still, he s a talented horse who has plenty of upside. GRADE: B. #7 HEARTWOOD (15/1) comes here from the minor leagues, so he ll have to prove his class today and considering the fact that he was beaten a city block in his only graded-stakes try (albeit going 9-furlongs), he seems in deep today. GRADE: X. #8 DABSTER (6/1), the second Baffert, is a bit of a grinder who just wore down City of Light when clearing his N1X hurdle. In fact, today s 7-furlongs suits his grinding style quite well, but he shouldn t expect any kind of quick pace to flatter his run. He cost $1 million back in 2016, so sky s the limit for this 3-year-old who is just making his fourth start though he will need a big step forward today. GRADE: C. #9 C Z ROCKET (7/2) is undefeated in three starts, and I know that this $800K 2016 purchase has been pointing to this Grade 1. He should also be fit, cutting back from a sharp one-turn mile victory at Churchill Downs, where he mowed them down and won going away. He doesn t have much early foot, however, so Lezcano will have to make sure he doesn t leave too much to do in a paceless race. I expect this guy to be flying late, and you have to love those two works over the track (since Al Stall, Jr., rarely ships horses out West). GRADE: A. LEG 4 (R9): We close out today s star-studded card with a $40K optional-claiming/n1x contested at one-mile on the lawn. We ve got a big, full field, so everyone will be at the mercy of trip and pace so I m going to look for the forwardly placed runners who project the right kind of trip. That said, there are plenty of evenly matched horses in here, so it wouldn t shock me if anyone won this competitive affair. #1 MALIBU MUSIC (20/1) ran a few decent races on turf against maidens, finally breaking through three back going 9-furlongs here at Santa Anita but his tries at this level have been pretty poor. This 3-year-old will need to turn the tables on a few who have already beaten him. GRADE: X. #2 INCREDIBLE LUCK (12/1) doesn t look like much based on his last three races, but note that those all came at Del Mar, while this guy s efforts here at Santa Anita are so much better. The blinks come off after a failed experiment last time at this level, where he was well-beaten at 19/1. He ll need a step forward today, but I do like that he has tactical speed, so he should get a great stalking trip (which would explain why he s so much better at Santa Anita than he is at Del Mar). GRADE: C. #3 TULE FOG (15/1) just broke his maiden at 15/1 going down the hill. It was a nice effort, but he got a perfect trip. He ll now have to show he can run the same race while trying two turns for the first time. I ll watch one. GRADE: X. #4 MIDNIGHT PLEASURE (10/1) has always hinted at some ability, but this $300K 2016 purchase hasn t been able to get the nod since winning his debut back in July 2016. He s run some good races and some bad races, though his only try on turf was one of his bad races. That said, he does get C-Nak today, so if he doesn t run well here, look for him next time cutting back to 7-furlongs. GRADE: X. #5 SPANISH HOMBRE (5/2) is a pro who is in very good form right now, coming off a near-miss at this level a month ago at Del Mar. His tactical speed ensures he ll get the right trip in here, and if he runs anywhere near his race two back, when he beat $40K claimers over this course and distance, he ll be very tough. GRADE: A.
#6 TEMPLE KEYS (6/1), the first Baltas entrant, is a deep closer who runs the same race every time, making him a viable contender for the underneath slots but a tough one to support on the winend, especially since he s been handled recently by a few of these. GRADE: X. #7 ICE KAT (20/1), the second Baltas runner, is a lightly raced 3-year-old who looks a little sneaky in here. He was burdened with an impossible post last time, yet he still ran on through the lane despite a wide journey, losing to a few of these but only by 2-lengths. He s now making the second start of his form cycle, and I think it s interesting that Baltas legs up prodigal son Quinonez, who rejoins the SoCal circuit after plying his trade elsewhere the past year or so. Is this a live mount for Q s return? I think this guy is sitting on a peak effort (especially with an OptixNOTES Improve? from that last race) will it be good enough? I ll pay to play. GRADE: A. #8 ACCOUNTABILITY (12/1) is an honest racehorse who finally had things go his way last time when Stevens gave him a perfectly timed move to get up to beat Cal-bred N1X runners by a head. The waters definitely get deeper today against open-company, but there are no world beaters in here, and it wouldn t shock me if this guy ran another good one right back. GRADE: B. #9 CHRIS AND DAVE (10/1) is capable of running some quick races, but those are typically when he s facing lesser company, whereas his tries at this $40K/N1X level have been a bit lacking. Still, he hasn t run poorly, it s just that others have shown more stick in the lane. At least you know he ll be in the vanguard early with his tactical speed. GRADE: B. #10 DARK ENERGY (20/1) was 36/1 at this level last time, and he ran to those odds, getting beaten badly by several of these. His only win came in wire fashion, so I suspect Espinoza will send hard from this outside post and hope for the best but I m not sure he s fast enough to clear, which means he s probably going to get a wide journey and have nothing left for the lane. GRADE: X. #11 LAZAAM (GB) (3/1) always puts in a strong late bid no matter what the level, but he s had a hard time finding the winner s circle because he s a deep closer who is always at the mercy of trip and pace. He had the 11-post last time at Del Mar and closed furiously to finish second, just edging out Spanish Hombre but that course heavily favored stretch-runners. Santa Anita isn t as kind to this type, so he ll really need a lot of things to go his way to get the job done. GRADE: C. #12 WINNING ELEMENT (8/1) needed $62.5K claimers to break his maiden, which he did last time at Del Mar, tracking the pace to win by a head as the 15/10 favorite. He ll now have to face winners from a very difficult post. I m sure Prat will do whatever he can to give this guy a good trip, but there are hurdles to overcome. GRADE: X. #13 MONGOLIAN GREYWOLF (6/1) (AE) adds blinkers, which means bug-boy Roman will probably go hard, and with other speed to his inside, that means this guy will either have to use too much energy to clear or he won t get over and will be forced to race 4-wide. Either way you slice it, things don t set up well for this East Coast invader, which is too bad because his Kentucky races make him a contender here. GRADE: C. #14 ANY QUESTIONS (6/1) (AE) just beat $25K claimers at the Big A in wire fashion as the 6/5 choice. He won t wire this field today and if he tries, he s likely to get cooked with other speed to his inside. The good news is: he knows how to pass horses, so at least bug-boy Roman will have options. The 5-pound weight-advantage will help as well, but this guy s best work has come against lesser, and the outside post does him no favors. GRADE: C. SUGGESTED WAGER What a good sequence with so many quality horses to wager on, especially since we ve got some A s as nice prices. Because of that, the whole Matrix at $96 seems like a reasonable investment if we can get one or two of those prices home. If you want to spend less, $72 will get you all A s with two B s, while $36 will get you all A s with one B. Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what
you re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drfbets-ticketmaker. For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/. Keep in mind: I don t add Also Eligibles to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets! [SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX]