Communities in Control Conference 2007 Looking Back, Leaping Forward: the latest trends, facts and demographics you must know Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift and The Big Picture Partner KPMG Australia 4 June 2007
Push from the bush 1901 2001 Coastal 8% Inner city 25% Coastal 19% Inner city 5% Rural 52% Suburbia 15% Rural 17% Suburbia 59% Suburban culture emerged during the 20 th Century Provincial coastal culture now ascendant Underpinned by lifestyle-seeking baby boomers Edna Everage; Neighbours 1985; Kath & Kim 2002
Population hotspots 1. Gold Coast 13,563 2. Wanneroo 7,941 3. Melton 6,814 4. Wyndham 6,660 5. Casey 6,429 6. Blacktown 4,955 7. Brisbane SW 4,839 8. Rockingham 4,616 9. Ipswich 4,240 10. Cairns 4,099 Telecommuting lifestyle towns are evolving at Palm Beach (NSW), Mt Tambourine (Qld), Daylesford (Vic), Birdwood (SA), Falmouth (Tas) and Cundinup (WA) and this was in 2001 prior to Broadband and 3G technology Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Our shifting heartland Palmerston Port Douglas Broome East Pilbara Townsville Proserpine Leonora Geraldton Ngaanyatjarraku Yeppoon Hervey Bay Noosa Caloundra Gold Coast Coffs Harbour Port Macquarie Busselton Port Stephens Augusta- Margaret River Denmark Victor Harbor Narooma Winners Losers Areas of population loss and growth between 1976 and 2006 Macedon Ranges Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Sorell
Coastal towns require infrastructure and services 6.0% 5.0% Bunbury Hervey Bay Mandurah 4.0% 3.0% Mildura Bunbury Hervey Bay Mandurah Busselton Cairns Mackay Townsville Gold Coast-Tweed Darwin Albany Sunshine Coast Mildura Bundaberg Gladstone Bendigo Perth Mount Barker Ballarat Shepparton Livingstone (Yeppoon) Toowoomba Warrnambool Coffs Harbour Brisbane Nowra-Bomaderry Bathurst Mount Isa Wagga Wagga Singleton Melbourne Tamworth Lismore Great Lakes (Forster) Geraldton Griffith Bega Valley Geelong Rockhampton Albury-Wodonga Canberra-Queanbeyan Grafton La Trobe Valley Greater Hobart Eurobodalla (Narooma) Ballina Nambucca Wingecarribee (Bowral-Moss Vale) Sydney Dubbo Adelaide Burnie-Devonport Orange Newcastle Armidale Port Macquarie Launceston Mount Gambier Taree (Greater) Lithgow Burdekin (Ayr) Kempsey Maryborough Wollongong Byron Alice Springs Kalgoorlie/Boulder Goulburn Broken Hill Whyalla Johnstone (Innisfail) 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% National average -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Innisfail The driving force for many Australians is the pursuit of lifestyle either on the beach or up in the hills Population change: 2005- to 2006
Teenage years stretched by Generation X Gen Y 2008 Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Retired Old 82 Child Teen Old Adult 1968 71 Child Adult Old 1928 63 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Change in life expectancy over 80 years Source: ABS 2003a, 3302.0, 3102.0, 3222.0; Australia s Health 2004 (AIHW)
Characteristics of Generation Y Born 1976-1991 now aged 16-31 Often a single child of baby boomer parents Matured to adulthood in prosperous times Many live at home with mum & dad Not committed in their 20s to marriage, mortgage, children, careers May turn out to be the Disappointed Generation Different views on loyalty to friends, to workmates, to employers Prefer deals not contracts and mentors not bosses Highly educated, opportunistic and global in their thinking
There is a demographic logic behind the rise of Generation Y in Australia 1950 2007 2050 250,000 Boomer Gen X Gen Y Millennials 200,000 150,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years Source: KPMG Property Advisory (2007); Australian Historical Population Statistics, ABS (2004); Population Projections, Australia, 2004 to 2101 (2006)
in Japan 3,000,000 1950 2007 2050 2,500,000 Boomer Gen X Gen Y Millennials 2,000,000 1,500,000 1.5 million 1,000,000 1994 contraction 500,000 0-500,000-1,000,000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years Source: KPMG Property Advisory, Statistics Bureau of Japan (2006)
in China 1950 2007 2050 20,000,000 Boomer Gen X Gen Y Millennials 15,000,000 15 million 10,000,000 2016 contraction 5,000,000 0-5,000,000-10,000,000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years Source: KPMG Property Advisory, UN Statistics Division
in India 15,000,000 14,000,000 13,000,000 12,000,000 11,000,000 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 1950 2007 2050 0 Boomer Gen X Gen Y Millennials Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years 14 million 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: KPMG Property Advisory, UN Statistics Division
and in the US 1950 2007 2050 3,000,000 2,500,000 Boomer Gen X Gen Y Millennials 2.5 million The Latino Lift 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years Source: KPMG Property Advisory, US Census Bureau (2006)
We are shifting our belief systems from traditional religion to consumerism 100% Believers 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Anglican 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Catholic No religion 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Anglican Catholic Total Christianity No religion Source: KPMG Property Advisory Group; Australian Bureau of Statistics Census of Population & Housing
The ageing of the average Aussie bride 35 30 Bridegrooms 25 20 Xer brides were 29 in 2002 15 Baby boomer brides were 21 in 1971 10 5 0 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 Source: Australian Demographic Statistics (3101.0); Marriages and Divorces (3310.0)
Behold the Great Australian Man Drought 10000 5000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Male surplus 0-5000 Male deficit -10000 30-39 1976 2006-15000 Men 936,400 1,493,100 Women 882,200 1,502,300 Male surplus +54,200-9,200-20000 1 3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931333537394143454749515355575961636567697173757779818385 Source: ABS 3201.0 (2004) Unpublished historical data (1976) 1976 2006
Women born in 1972 have got it toughest YE June Men Women Male Surplus 1968 137,000 136,000 +1,000 1969 139,000 140,000-1,000 1970 144,000 145,000-1,000 1971 148,000 150,000-2,000 1972 154,000 157,000-3,000 1973 159,000 161,000-2,000 1974 149,000 151,000-2,000 1975 148,000 150,000-2,000 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
The fella filter Total men aged 25-34 1,381,000 Less married 485,000 Less defacto 185,000 Less gay relationship 7,000 Less single parent (baggage) 12,000 Less men not earning $60k + pa (2005) 568,000 Total Prime Available Male Product 86,000 Less than 6 per cent of men survive the Fella Filter
The fella filter delivers geeks and bean counters 1. Accountant 3,460 2. Sales & marketing manager 2,657 3. Software designer 2,233 4. Applications & analyst programmer 2,148 5. Fitter 1,593 6. General electrician 1,540 7. Systems designer 1,400 8. Management consultant 1,370 9. Solicitor 1,277 10. General manager 1,252
Young Kiwi men are not in New Zealand 3,000 2,000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Male surplus 30-39 1976 2006 Men 190,600 273,900 Women 186,000 304,200 Male surplus 4,500-30,300 1,000 0-1,000-2,000-3,000 Male deficit -4,000 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 1976 2006 Source: Statistics New Zealand
Singles beat couples and families 1991 2001 2031 Singles 20 24 31 Couples 24 26 29 One-parent family 10 11 11 Mum, Dad & the Kids 41 33 24 Group households 5 4 3 Other family 1 1 1 Households ( 000s) 6,450 7,789 11,580 Mum, Dad & the Kids has been the leading social structure at the household level in Australia for several decades By 2021 families and couples are eclipsed by singles who then pull ahead in 2020s
Big shift in attitudes to retirement 1950 2007 2050 160,000 140,000 Workers retire Boss manages younger employees Workers deferential Rich corporate memory 140,000 Workers phase shift CEO manages older workers Workers question authority Corporate memory threatened 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Net growth in retirement age population (65+) over 100 years Source: KPMG Property Advisory (2007); Australian Historical Population Statistics, ABS (2004); Population Projections, Australia, 2004 to 2101 (2006)
Generational traits Boomers Gen X Gen Y Millennials Born 1946-1961 Born 1961-1976 Born 1976-1991 Born 1991-2006 Now aged 46-61 4.3 million Idealistic; careerorientated; consumerist Promoted young and propped Peak income earning 1991-2005 Succession planning, advisory boards, nonexec directors Now aged 31-46 4.5 million Realists; cynical Held back by old fart logjam Peak income earning 2006-2021 Assuming positions of high office now Must deal with baby boomers in retirement Now aged 16-31 4.2 million Experiential; ethicists; uncommitted to career; relationships Helicopter kids; KIPPERS Peak income earning 2021-2036 Technology savvy; global thinking Inherit boomer wealth Now aged 0-16 4.3 million Children of Gen X The New Conservatives Raised by cashstrapped Xers HECS debt repayment High mortgage repayments Experience recession as kids Fixers of Y s mess?
Further information & contact The Big Picture $29.95rrp out now Bernard Salt s column appears in The Australian every Thursday Population Growth Database 2006 now available at $495: contact fmevans@.com.au Contact: Bernard Salt (03) 9288 5047; bsalt@.com.au; www.bernardsalt.com.au The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.