Predicting the Markets: Chapter 12 Charts: October 5, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni Chief Investment Strategist Mali Quintana Senior Economist info@yardenibook.com Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents 1-18 October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
1.8 1.6 Figure 1. NET INFLOWS INTO EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS (cumulative flows since 2, trillion dollars) 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 Total International* Domestic Aug 1.4 1.2 1. 1..8.8.6.6.4.4.2.2.. -.2 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 -.2 * Includes Global & International, Emerging Markets, and Regional Funds. Source: Investment Company Institute. Figure 2. NET INFLOWS INTO EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS (cumulative flows since 2, percent of total) Aug 15 15 85 85 75 75 65 65 55 55 45 45 35 35 25 25 15 5 Domestic International* 15 5-5 -5-15 -25 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22-15 -25 * Includes Global & International, Emerging Markets, and Regional Funds. Source: Investment Company Institute. Page 1 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
6.1 5.1 4.1 3.1 Figure 3. TOTAL VALUE OF US STOCKS (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) 6.1 5.1 4.1 3.1 2.1 2.1 1.1 US Equity Issues at Market Value Total Total Ex Foreign Issues* 1.1.1 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22.1 * Total excluding market value of holdings of foreign corporate equities, investment fund shares, and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) by US residents. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States. 25 Figure 4. FOREIGN EQUITIES HELD BY US RESIDENTS (as percent of total market value of equities held by US residents) 25 2 2 15 1 Foreign Equities Share in US* 15 1 5 5 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 * Market value of holdings of foreign corporate equities, investment fund shares, and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) by US residents as a percent of the market value of their total equity holdings. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States. Page 2 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
153 93 753 63 453 Figure 5. CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD* (billion dollars, saar, ratio scale) 153 93 753 63 453 33 33 153 153 3 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 3 * Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 6 55 Figure 6. CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD* (as a percent of pre-tax corporate profits) 6 55 5 5 45 45 4 35 4 35 3 3 25 25 2 2 15 15 1 1 5 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 5 * Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 3 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
16 155 15 145 14 135 13 12 11 15 1 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 Figure 7. FED S TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEXES (daily) Major* (3/73=1) Broad** (1/97=1) 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 9/28 9/28 16 155 15 145 14 135 13 12 11 15 1 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 * Major index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Australia, Canada, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom, ** Broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Source: Federal Reserve Board. 135 13 Figure 8. JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX* (21=1, daily) 135 13 12 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate 1/5 12 11 11 15 15 1 1 9 9 85 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 85 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, and Euro Area. Source: JP Morgan. Page 4 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
.35 Figure 9. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO (US$ index / local currency index, daily).35.3.3.25.25.2.2 1/5.15 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 Source: MSCI..15 2.2 2.1 Figure 1. DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO (US$ index / local currency index, daily) 2.2 2.1 2. 2. 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1/5 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: MSCI. 1.3 1.2 Page 5 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
228 1628 1228 Figure 11. GOLD PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce, ratio scale) 1/4 228 1628 1228 828 828 428 428 28 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 28 * Cash price. London gold bullion, PM Fix. Monthly from 1968 through 1974, then daily. Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics. 67 57 47 Figure 12. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=1, ratio scale) 1/4 67 57 47 37 37 27 27 17 17 7 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 24 7 * Weekly from January 9, 11 to May 26, 1981, then daily. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Page 6 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
48 43 38 33 28 23 18 Figure 13. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE (dollars per barrel, ratio scale, monthly) 48 43 38 33 28 23 18 13 13 8 8 3 7 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 82 83 84 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Haver Analytics. 3 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6 Figure 14. NET EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN NOMINAL GDP (as a percent of nominal GDP) Total Ex Petroleum 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23-8 -7 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 7 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
8 6 4 2-2 -4 Figure 15. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE (12-month sum, billion dollars) 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 -12-14 -16 Aug 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 Source: US Treasury Department. -6-8 -1-12 -14-16 15.2 12.2 9.2 Figure 16. US TREASURY DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC* (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) Sep 15.2 12.2 9.2 6.2 6.2 3.2 3.2.2 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22.2 * Marketable interest-bearing bills, notes, and bonds. Source: US Treasury Department, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States. Page 8 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
8 85 Figure 17. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (daily) 7 9 6 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=1) 1 15 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) 1/4 5 11 4 12 1/5 3 13 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 2 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. 8 85 Figure 18. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (daily) 15 9 Brent Crude Oil Price (dollars per barrel) 1 1 15 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) 1/5 11 5 12 1/5 13 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics. Page 9 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
85 9 Figure 19. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (daily) 15 1 1/5 1 15 11 Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in dollars) 5 12 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) 1/5 13 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 12.5 1.5 8.5 6.5 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International. Figure 2. NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES: ADVANCED & EMERGING ECONOMIES (trillion dollars, ratio scale) Jul 12.5 1.5 8.5 6.5 4.5 Jul 4.5 2.5 2.5 International Reserves Held By: Advanced Economies* Emerging Economies.5 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22.5 * Includes United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom. Source: IMF and Haver Analytics. Page 1 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
.8.9 1. Figure 21. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & CANADIAN DOLLAR (daily) 7 6 1.1 1.2 1/4 5 1.3 1.4 Canada (C$/US$, inverted scale) 1/5 4 1.5 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 3 1.6 1.7 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 2 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Haver Analytics..8.9 1. 1.1 1.2 Figure 22. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (daily) 7 6 1.3 1.4 1.5 1/5 5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2. 2.1 Australia (A$/US$, inverted scale) CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 4 3 2 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 11 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
1 Figure 23. US INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS: CURRENT vs FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCES (billion dollars, 4-quarter sum) 1 5 5-5 Account Balance Current* Financial** -5-1 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22-1 * US exports less imports of goods and services plus net income from abroad. ** Net incurrence of liabilities less net acquisition of financial assets. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 Figure 24. US INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS: STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY (billion dollars, 4-quarter sum) 3 2 2 1 1-1 -1-2 -2-3 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22-3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 12 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 Figure 25. CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (billion dollars) Merchandise Trade Surplus or Deficit (12-month sum) Non-Gold International Reserves (12-month change) 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. Aug Aug 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8-9 -1-11 -12-13 Figure 26. CHINA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* (billion dollars) 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Aug 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8-9 -1-11 -12-13 * 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. Page 13 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
5 Figure 27. CHINA: NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES & YUAN 5.5 4 6. 3 Non-Gold International Reserves (trillion dollars, nsa) 6.5 Yuan/US$ (inverted scale) 1/5 7. 2 7.5 1 8. 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: IMF and Haver Analytics. 8.5 2 Figure 28. WORLD EX-US: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (billion dollars) 2 1 World Trade Surplus with US* (12-month sum) World Non-Gold International Reserves (12-month change) Aug 1 Jul -1 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2-1 * US trade deficit multiplied by -1.. Source: IMF and Haver Analytics. Page 14 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
2 Figure 29. WORLD EX-US: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* (billion dollars) 2 1 1 Jul -1-1 -2 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2-2 * 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus with US (i.e., US trade deficit multiplied by -1.). Source: IMF and Haver Analytics. 2 1-1 -2 Figure 3. IMPLIED WORLD EX-US CAPITAL FLOWS & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) Implied World Ex-US Capital Flows* JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 9/28-22 -2-18 -16-14 -12-1 -8-6 -4-2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 * 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). US trade deficit multiplied by -1.. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: IMF and JP Morgan. Page 15 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
2 15 1 5-5 -1 Figure 31. WORLD NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (12-month change, billion dollars) & TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) World Non-Gold International Reserves* (12-month change) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 9/28-16 -14-12 -1-8 -6-4 -2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 * 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). US trade deficit multiplied by -1.. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: IMF and JP Morgan. 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 Figure 32. WORLD NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (yearly percent change) & TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) World Non-Gold International Reserves (yearly percent change) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: IMF and JP Morgan. 9/28 Jul -16-14 -12-1 -8-6 -4-2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 Page 16 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
12.8 11.8 1.8 9.8 8.8 7.8 6.8 5.8 Figure 33. INTERNATIONAL RESERVES HELD BY ALL CENTRAL BANKS (trillion dollars, ratio scale) Jul 12.8 11.8 1.8 9.8 8.8 7.8 6.8 5.8 4.8 4.8 3.8 3.8 2.8 2.8 1.8 All Central Banks Non-Gold International Reserves Total Foreign Exchange Holdings Total Allocated Reserves Allocated Reserves in US Dollars 1.8.8 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: IMF..8 74 72 Figure 34. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF OFFICIAL FOREIGN-EXCHANGE RESERVES (COFER) (percent of Allocated Reserves in US dollars) 74 72 7 68 Percent of Allocated Reserves In US Dollars 7 68 66 66 64 64 62 62 6 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: IMF. 6 Page 17 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
6.5 6. Figure 35. TOTAL ASSETS OF MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS (trillion dollars) 6.5 6. 5.5 Sep 5.5 5. 4.5 Fed ECB 5. 4.5 4. Sep 4. 3.5 3.5 3. 3. 2.5 2.5 2. 2. 1.5 1.5 1..5 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Haver Analytics. 1..5 135 13 12 Figure 36. JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX* (21=1, daily) Oil Price Peak QE Terminated Oil Price Trough Trump Wins 1/5 135 13 12 11 15 1 Rate Hike Rate Hike Rate Hike Rate Hike 11 15 1 9 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 9 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area. Source: JP Morgan. Page 18 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
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