Characteristics and Variations of the East Asian Monsoon System and Its Impacts on Climate Disasters in China

ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, VOL. 24, NO. 6, 2007, 993 1023 Characteristics and Variations of the East Asian Monsoon System and Its Impacts on Climate Disasters in China HUANG Ronghui ( ), CHEN Jilong ( ), and HUANG Gang ( ) Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080 (Received 30 January 2007; revised 13 August 2007) ABSTRACT Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Previous studies have improved our understanding of the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures and the annual cycle of the EAM system and the water vapor transports in the EAM region. Many studies have shown that the EAM system is a relatively independent subsystem of the Asian- Australian monsoon system, and that there exists an obvious quasi-biennial oscillation with a meridional tripole pattern distribution in the interannual variations of the EAM system. Further analyses of the basic physical processes, both internal and external, that influence the variability of the EAM system indicate that the EAM system may be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, referred to the EAM climate system in this paper. Further, the paper discusses how the interaction and relationships among various components of this system can be described through the East Asia Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern and the teleconnection pattern of meridional upper-tropospheric wind anomalies along the westerly jet over East Asia. Such reasoning suggests that the occurrence of severe floods in the Yangtze and Huaihe River valleys and prolonged droughts in North China are linked, respectively, to the background interannual and interdecadal variability of the EAM climate system. Besides, outstanding scientific issues related to the EAM system and its impact on climate disasters in China are also discussed. Key words: East Asian monsoon system, climate disaster, persistent drought, severe flood, EAP pattern teleconnection DOI: 10.1007/s00376-007-0993-x 1. Introduction China is located in the East Asian monsoon region, thus, the climate of China is influenced mainly by the East Asian monsoon (EAM) (e.g., Zhu, 1934; Tu and Huang, 1944). The significant interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the EAM are related to frequent climate disasters (e.g., Huang and Zhou, 2002; Huang et al., 2006a). Especially since the 1980s, severe climate disasters over large areas have caused major damage to agricultural and industrial production in China. Each year, the economic losses due to droughts and floods can reach over 200 billon yuan (i.e., about US$24 billion), accounting for 3% 6% of China s GDP in the early 1990s (e.g., Huang et al., 1999a; Huang and Zhou, 2002). In the summer of 1998, for example, particularly severe floods occurred in the Yangtze River basin and the Songhua and Nen River valley, causing losses as high as 260 billion yuan (i.e., about US$ 31 billion) (e.g., Huang et al., 1998a). In addition, persistent droughts in North China since the late 1970s brought not only huge losses to agriculture and industry, but also seriously affected the region s water resources and ecology resulting in a large increase in the frequency sand-dust storms. To reduce the losses due to climate disasters, research is necessary to increase understanding and the ability to predict climate disasters in China. As a result, such research was one among the first batch of projects supported by the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences (e.g., Huang et al., 1999a; Huang, 2001a, 2004) and was a major project supported by the National Natu- Corresponding author: HUANG Ronghui, hrh@lasg.iap.ac.cn

994 CHARACTERISTICS AND VARIATIONS OF THE EAST ASIAN MONSOON SYSTEM VOL. 24 ral Science Foundation of China. The occurrence of climate disasters such as droughts and floods in China, especially the severe flooding disaster in the Yangtze River basin in the summer of 1998 and the persistent droughts in North China since the late 1970s, is closely associated with the variability and anomalies associated with the EAM system. Just as monsoons generically may be viewed as atmosphere-ocean-land coupled systems (Webster et al., 1998), the variability and anomaly of the EAM system are affected not only by internal dynamical and thermodynamical processes in the atmosphere, but also by the interactions among various components of a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land system. To study the recurrence and causes of severe climate disasters in China, the variability in various components of the EAM climate system has been analyzed in detail in recent years. These components include the circulation of the EAM, western Pacific subtropical high, atmospheric disturbances in mid-and high latitudes, thermal states of the Pacific warm pool, convective activity around the Philippines, ENSO cycle in the tropical Pacific, dynamical and thermal effects over the Tibetan Plateau, land surface process in the arid and semi-arid areas of Northwest China, and snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau (e.g., Huang et al., 1998a; Huang et al., 2001; Huang et al., 2004a). In addition to descriptive aspects of these features, the nature of the internal and external physical processes that influence the variabilities in the EAM system have been addressed recently. This paper attempts to summarize the advances in recent studies on the characteristics and variabilities of the EAM system and its impacts on climate disasters in China. The review focuses on the progress achieved by research in China during the recent decades. 2. Characteristic of the EAM system The Asian-Australian monsoon system is an important circulation system in the global climate system. Many studies have shown that the Asian and Australian monsoons play an important role in global climate variability (e.g., Tao and Chen, 1987; Ding, 1994; Huang and Fu, 1996; Webster et al., 1998; Huang et al., 2003; Huang et al., 2004a). Since there is a close association between the South Asian monsoon (SAM), the East Asian monsoon (EAM) and the North Australian monsoon (NAM), some scholars consider them three subsystems of the Asian-Australian monsoon system (e.g., Webster et al., 1998). However, there are some differences among these monsoon subsystems. For example, the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is not only a part of the tropical monsoon, it also has properties of disturbances in middle latitudes (e.g., Tao and Chen, 1987). But, the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and the North Australian summer monsoon (NASM) are only tropical. Therefore, the EASM differs from the SASM and the NASM in aspects described in the following sub sections. 2.1 A relatively independent component of the Asian-Australian monsoon system According to Krishnamurti and Ramanathan (1982) study, the principal components of the SASM include: the Mascarene high, Somali cross-equatorial low-level flow, monsoon trough over North India in the lower troposphere, South Asian high, and the north to south cross-equatorial flow in the upper troposphere. Tao s investigation (e.g., Tao and Chen, 1985) showed the main components of EASM monsoon include: the Indian SW monsoon flow, Australian cold anticyclone, cross-equatorial flow east to 100 E, monsoon trough (or ITCZ) over the South China Sea (SCS), tropical easterly flow around the west Pacific the western Pacific subtropical high, mei-yu (or Baiu in Japan, or Changma in Korea) frontal zone, and disturbances in mid-latitudes. Hence, the EASM is a relatively independent monsoon circulation system. Recently, Chen and Huang (2006) analyzed the climatological characteristics of the wind structure and seasonal evolution of subsystems of the Asian- Australian monsoon system, specifically the SASM over the area (0 25 N, 60 100 E) and the EASM over the area (0 45 N, 100 140 E) in boreal summer, and the NASM over the area (0 15 S, 110 150 E) in austral summer. Results (Figs. 1a and 1c) show that both the SASM and the NASM are solely tropical strong zonal flow with vertical easterly shear, i.e., low-level westerlies and high-level easterlies. The vertical easterly shear in the SASM region is stronger than that in the NASM region. The vertical structure of zonal flow in the EASM region is complex. It includes vertical easterly shear in the region to the south of 25 N, such as over the South China Sea (SCS) and the tropical western Pacific, and vertical westerly shear in the subtropical monsoon region north of 25 N, such as over mainland China, Korea and Japan (Fig. 1b). Thus, the EASM is composed of both tropical and subtropical summer monsoons with a significant meridional flow and vertical northerly shear, i.e., lowlevel southerlies and high-level northerlies (Fig. 2). Moreover, compared to the meridional components of wind in the SASM and NASM regions, the low-level southerlies in the EASM region are stronger than those in the SASM and NASM regions.

NO. 6 HUANG ET AL. 995 (a) (b) (c) Fig. 1. Altitude-time cross section of zonal wind averaged over (a) South Asia (0 25 N, 60 100 E), (b) East Asia (20 45 N, 100 140 E) and (c) North Australia (0 15 N, 110 150 E). Units: m s 1. Solid and dashed lines indicate westerly and easterly winds, respectively. Shown are 1979 2003 means derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (e.g., Kalnay et al., 1996).

996 CHARACTERISTICS AND VARIATIONS OF THE EAST ASIAN MONSOON SYSTEM VOL. 24 (a) (b) (c) Fig. 2. As in Fig. 1 except for the meridional wind.

NO. 6 HUANG ET AL. 997 2.2 Annual cycle between summer and winter monsoons in the EAM region It is clear from either precipitation and surface winds or tropospheric air temperatures and circulation patterns that the SAM and the NAM are phenomena having an annual cycle (e.g., Li and Yanai, 1996; Tomas and Webster, 1997; Goswami et al., 2006). The annual cycle is more pronounced in the EAM region. Tao and Chen (1987) pointed out that the earliest onset of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) is found over the SCS. It subsequently moves northward to South China, the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River valleys, Korea and Japan, and reaches North China and Northeast China in early or mid-july. The annual cycle of the EAM is readily apparent from seasonal variations of the monsoon rainband over East Asia (e.g., Huang et al., 2003). Figure 3 is the latitude-time cross section of 5-day precipitation along 115 E (average for 110 120 E) averaged over the 40 years from 1961 to 2000. Figure 3 clearly shows that the monsoon rainband is located over South China in spring, then moves northward to the south of the Yangtze River during the period from May to the first 10 days of June, and then abruptly moves northward to the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys of China, Japan and South Korea. This is the beginning of the mei-yu season in the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys and start of the Baiu in Japan. Thereafter, as seen from Fig. 3, the monsoon rainband moves northward to North China and North Korea in early July. As it does so, the mei-yu season ends in the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys (i.e., Jianghuai valley in Chinese) and the rainy season begins in North China and Northeast China. The northward movement of the summer monsoon rainband over East Asia agrees well with the onset of EAM in various regions of East Asia (Tao and Chen, 1987). The northward movement of the rainband is closely associated with the northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (e.g., Huang and Sun, 1992; Ding, 1992; Huang et al., 2003; Lu, 2004; Huang et al., 2005). Yeh et al. (1959) were the first to point out the abrupt change in the planetary scale the circulation over East Asia occurring during early and mid- June that accompanies the onset of the EASM. Later, Krishnamurti and Ramanathan (1982) and McBride (1987) noted the onset of the SASM and the NASM circulations also coincided with abrupt changes of planetary-scale circulations. Additionally, as shown by Huang and Sun (1992), abrupt changes occurred during early or mid-june in the circulation over East Asia are closely associated with convective activity around the Philippines. The southward retreat of the EASM is very rapid. Generally, the EASM moves rapidly southward to South China during the two weeks following mid- August. Subsequently, the EAWM begins with strong northerly winds prevailing over East Asia. In October strong northeasterly winds reach the area over the SCS and winds become easterly over the Indo-China Peninsula. Thus, the annual cycle of the EASM and EAWM is characterized mainly by migration in the meridional direction, while migration of the SAM and NAM annual cycle between winter and summer is primarily in the zonal direction. Differences in the annual cycle of wind fields among these three monsoon systems can be seen also from the altitude-time cross sections of zonal (Fig. 1) and meridional winds (Fig. 2) averaged over East Asia, South Asia, and North Australia. From early June over South Asia (Fig. 1a) strong westerly winds prevail in the lower troposphere below 500 hpa and strong easterly winds are found in the upper troposphere above 500 hpa. However, from early October over this region the westerly wind become easterly in the lower troposphere below 700 hpa, while the easterly wind become westerly in the upper troposphere above 500 hpa. Hence, in the SAM region the annual cycle between summer and winter monsoons is clearly evident in the zonal wind fields. The same phenomenon also appears in the NAM region (Fig. 1c), but the reverse of zonal wind occurs in early November as the summer approaches in the Southern Hemisphere. Comparison of Fig. 1b with Figs. 1a and 1c shows the seasonal reverse of zonal winds in the troposphere over East Asia is not significant. Rather, as shown in Fig. 2b, there is an obvious seasonal reverse of meridional winds in the lower and upper troposphere over East Asia in early June and mid-september, respectively. From the above analysis, it can be seen that in EAM region the annual migration between winter and summer monsoons is primarily in the meridional direction and appears mainly in the meridional component of wind field. It therefore differs markedly from the annual cycle of wind fields in the SAM and NAM regions. 2.3 The characteristics of water vapor transports in the EASM region Huang et al. (1998b) showed that the characteristics of water vapor transports in the EAM region are considerably different from those characterizing the SASM area. In the SASM region the zonal transport of water vapor dominates, while the meridional transport of water vapor is very large in the EASM region. Moreover, the convergence of water vapor over the EASM region, which is closely associated with monsoon rainfall there, is to the combined effects of moisture ad-

998 CHARACTERISTICS AND VARIATIONS OF THE EAST ASIAN MONSOON SYSTEM VOL. 24 Fig. 3. Latitude-time cross section of 5-day precipitation along 115 E (average over 110 120 E) for the period 1961 2000. Units: mm. vection and convergence of the wind fields. Over the SASM region, water vapor convergence results mainly from wind-field convergence. The authors also point out that the anomalous summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia is influenced primarily by three branches of water vapor transport, namely, from the Bay of Bengal, South China Sea and tropical western Pacific. Zhou and Yu (2005) have shown the relationship between summer monsoon rainfall anomaly patterns in China and the water vapor transports. Additionally, they noted that the anomalously strong summer rainfall pattern occurring in the mid- and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley is closely associated with the convergence of the northward transport of water vapor from the Bay of Bengal and the southward transport of water vapor from mid-latitudes. However, if the anomalous rainfall pattern shifts northward to the Huaihe River valley, it may be supported by the convergence of the water vapor transports from the South China Sea and mid-latitudes. Recently, Chen and Huang (2007) analyzed the characteristics of water vapor transports over the EASM, the SASM and NASM regions using the ERA- 40 reanalysis data for 1979 2002. The result is in good agreement with those by Huang et al. (1998b). The convergence of water vapor transport over the SASM region is mainly due to the convergence of the wind field in the lower troposphere over this region because of the large vertical velocity forced by large vertical shear of the zonal wind, as shown in Fig. 1a. A similar result can be found over the NASM region in the Southern Hemisphere summer (not shown). However, over the EASM region, water vapor transport is due not only to converging wind fields, but also to the moisture advection associated with the southerly monsoon flow in the lower troposphere. This is because there is a smaller vertical velocity corresponding to lesser vertical wind shear (Fig. 1b) than that in the SAM region. From the above results, it may be concluded that the EAM system is a relatively independent component of the Asian-Australian monsoon system, although the EASM is also influenced by the SASM. 3. Characteristics of temporal and spatial variabilities of the EAM system and their impact on droughts and floods in China Since the EASM is influenced not only by the SASM and the western Pacific subtropical high (e.g., Tao and Chen, 1987; Huang and Sun, 1992), as well as by mid- and high latitude circulation systems over both Northern Hemispheres (e.g., Tao and Chen, 1987; Gong and Ho, 2003) and Southern Hemisphere (e.g., Nan and Li, 2003; Fan and Wang, 2004; Xue et al., 2004), the interannual and interdecadal variations of EASM system are significant and very complex. In comparison to summertime surface air temperatures, the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of summer monsoon rainfall are more obvious in East Asia and have a large impact on climate disasters in China (e.g., Huang et al., 1999a; Huang and Zhou, 2002). Therefore, the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of summer monsoon rainfall and water vapor transports in East Asia are emphasized in this section. 3.1 Interannual variations of onset and northward advance of the EASM and their impact on droughts and floods in China The interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia is influenced not only by the strengthof the EASM,but also bythe date of its onset. According to the studies by Tao and Chen (1987), and

NO. 6 HUANG ET AL. 999 July 30 July 20 July 15 July 10 June 15 June 10 June 50 June 10 July 10 June 30 May 10 June 20 June 10 May 30 May 20 May 25 May 20 Fig. 4. Climatological-mean onset dates of the EASM (from Tao and Chen, 1987). He and Luo (1999), the earliest onset of the ASM is found over the SCS and the Indo-China Peninsula, as shown in Fig. 4. Recently, Ding and He (2006) proposed that the earliest onset of the ASM is over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. Since the onset of the SCSM has a direct impact on the northward advance of the ASM over East Asia, the study of the SCSM onset is emphasized in the review. The appearance of strong convective activity and the southwesterly flow over the SCS signals the onset of the ASM. Generally, the summer monsoon over the SCS is referred to the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSM) in China. In order to investigate the interannual variability of onset date and progress of the SCSM, it is necessary to define an index for measuring the SCSM onset. However, there are many definitions of the SCSM onset (e.g., Wang et al., 2004) to choose. In comparison with other definitions, the one proposed by Liang and Wu (2002) appears to be more reasonable and used in many studies (e.g., Huang et al., 2005, 2006a). Huang et al. (2005), and Huang et al. (2006a) analyzed the characteristics of interannual variations of the SCSM onset and its subsequent development. Their results showed that the interannual variability of SCSM onset date is very large and closely associated with the thermal state of the tropical western Pacific in spring. When the tropical western Pacific is warming during spring, the western Pacific subtropical high shifts eastward and twin anomalous cyclones develop early over the Bay of Bengal and Sumatra preceding the onset of the SCSM. In this case, the cyclonic circulation located over the Bay of Bengal can intensify early and develop into a strong trough. As a consequence, the westerly flow and convective activity can intensify over Sumatra, the Indo-China Peninsula and the SCS in mid-may, leading to an early onset of the SCSM (Fig. 5a). On the other hand, when the tropical western Pacific is cooling in spring, the western Pacific subtropical high shifts westward, and the twin anomalous anticyclones are located over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and Sumatra from late April to mid-may. Thus, the westerly flow and convective activity does not increase in intensity as early over the Indo-China Peninsula and the SCS. Only when the western Pacific subtropical high moves eastward, the weak trough over the Bay of Bengal can intensify. As a result, the strong southwesterly wind and convective activity over the Indo-China Peninsula and the SCS are delayed generally until late May, thus, the late onset of the SCSM is caused (Fig. 5b). Following the SCSM onset, the monsoon moves northward over East Asia. Huang and Sun (1992), Huang et al. (2004a), and Huang et al. (2005) also investigated the interannual variations of the northward advance of the EASM. Their results showed the northward advances of the EASM after the onset over the SCS are greatly influenced by the thermal state of the tropical western Pacific in summer. They pointed out that there are close relationships among the thermal states of the tropical western Pacific, the convective activity around the Philippines, the western Pacific subtropical high, and the summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia. As shown in Fig. 5a, when the SST in the tropical western Pacific is above normal in summer, i.e., warm sea water accumulates in the West Pacific warm pool, and a cold tongue extends westward from the Peruvian coast along the equatorial Pacific, convection intensifies from the Indo-China Peninsula to east of the Philippines, and the western Pacific subtropical high shifts anomalously northward. In this case, the summer monsoon rainfall may be below normal in East Asia, especially in the Yangtze River and

1000 CHARACTERISTICS AND VARIATIONS OF THE EAST ASIAN MONSOON SYSTEM VOL. 24 Fig. 5. Schematic map of the relationships among the thermal states of the tropical western Pacific (TWP) (i.e., 0 14 N, 130 150 E) in spring, the convective activity around the Philippines, the western Pacific subtropical high, the onset of SCSM and the summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia. (a) warming TWP; (b) cooling TWP. Huaihe River basins of China, South Korea, and Japan. On the other hand, when the SST in the tropical western Pacific is below normal, i.e., the warm sea water extends eastward from the West Pacific warm pool along the equatorial western Pacific in summer, the convective activity is weak around the Philippines, and the western Pacific subtropical high may shift southward. In this case, the summer monsoon rainfall may be above normal in the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys of China, South Korea, and Southwest Japan. Therefore, following a spring with late onset of the SCSM, severe floods may occur in the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys and droughts in North China in summer. Therefore, the thermal state of the tropical western Pacific, especially the anomaly of oceanic heat content (OHC) in the area known as NINO West (i.e., 0 14 N, 130 150 E) in spring (March May) can be considered as a physical factor affecting the SCSM onset and summertime droughts and floods in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River valleys, South Korea, and Japan. 3.2 The EAP index and interannual variability in the strength of the EASM Monsoon indices are criteria for measuring the strength of monsoons and are necessary for studying the interannual variability of the ASM. Thus, two types of indices of Asian monsoon strength are used. One is defined from the thermodynamic elements, such as precipitation or OLR (e.g., Tao and Chen, 1987; Murakami and Matsumoto, 1994). The other is defined from the dynamic elements, such as the difference of zonal wind between lower and upper troposphere (e.g., Webster and Yang, 1992; Zeng et al., 1994) or the difference of sea-level pressure between the Eurasian continent and North Pacific (e.g., Guo, 1983). The former is easily influenced by local thermodynamic conditions, but the latter is only suitable for studying the SAM and the NAM regions where there are the large differences in the zonal wind between lower and upper troposphere, as described in section 2. Since differences in zonal wind are small in the EASM region, the definition based on zonal winds is not suitable for use in there. Rather, the study by

NO. 6 HUANG ET AL. 1001 (a) (b) (c) Fig. 6. Distributions of correlation coefficients between summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia with (a) the EAP index, (b) the WY index (e.g., Webster and Yang, 1992), and (c) the SM index (e.g., Guo, 1983). Areas of confidence level over 95% are shaded. Rainfall data is from the Xie-Arkin precipitation data for 1979 1998 (e.g., Xie and Arkin, 1997).

1002 CHARACTERISTICS AND VARIATIONS OF THE EAST ASIAN MONSOON SYSTEM VOL. 24 (a) (b) The spatial distribution of EOF1 The spatial distribution of EOF2 The time coefficient series of EOF1 The time coefficient series of EOF2 Fig. 7. Spatial distribution and the corresponding time coefficient series of the (a) first and (b) second component of EOF analysis (i.e., EOF1 and EOF2) of summer (JJA) rainfall in China from 1958 to 2000. EOF1 and EOF2 explain 15.6% and 12.7% of the variance, respectively. Huang (2004) showed that the interannual variability of EASM can be described well by using the East/Pacific teleconnection pattern (EAP) index, which is based upon summer 500 hpa height anomalies corresponding to the EAP teleconnection of summer circulation anomalies (e.g., Nitta, 1987; Huang and Li, 1987, 1988). Figures 6a c show correlations between summer rainfall in East Asia and the EAP index, the Webster- Yang (WY) zonal-wind index, and the sea-level pressure based index (SM). Comparison of Fig. 6a with Figs. 6b and 6c clearly shows that the EAP index corresponds well and more so that the WY and SM indices with summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia. Also, from Fig. 6a, it can be seen that, if the EAP index is negative (positive), summer monsoon rainfall tends to be above (below) normal in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River valleys. For example, in the summers of 1954, 1957, 1980, 1987, 1993, and 1998, the EAP index was largely negative, and severe floods occurred in these regions. Moreover, Fig. 6a shows a meridional tripole pattern in the distribution of correlation coefficients in East and Northeast Asia, which corresponds to interannual variations of summer monsoon rainfall which generally appear as a meridional tripole pattern in rainfall distribution. 3.3 The quasi-biennial oscillation and tripole pattern distribution of the EASM anomalies over East Asia and their impacts on droughts and floods in China The quasi-biennial oscillation of circulation in the tropical troposphere, i.e., the TBO, is a fundamental characteristic of interannual variations in air-sea coupling in the SAM and NAM regions (e.g., Mooley and Parthasarathy, 1984; Yasunari and Suppiah, 1988). Also, Miao and Lau (1990), Lu et al. (1995), Yin et al. (1996), and Chang et al. (2000) proposed that the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) can be found in interannual variations of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia. Recently, Huang et al. (2006b) showed that there is also an obvious oscillation with a period of two three years, i.e., the TBO, in the corresponding time-coefficient series of the EOF1 of summer rainfall in China (Fig. 7a), especially from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s. And, as shown by the spatial distribution of EOF1 in Fig. 7a, a strong negative signal occurs in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River valleys. Moreover, it is also shown that this oscillation is closely associated with the quasi-biennial

NO. 6 HUANG ET AL. 1003 oscillation in the interannual variations of water vapor transport fluxes by the summer monsoon flow over East Asia (Fig. 8b). Additionally, the spatial distribution of EOF1 of summer rainfall in China (Fig. 7a) and the spatial distribution of the EOF1 of water vapor transports over East and Northeast Asia (Fig. 8a) are similar in exhibiting a meridional tripole pattern. This meridional tripole pattern is seen clearly in the circulation anomalies at 500 hpa or 700 hpa. Figures 9a and 9b are the composite 500 hpa height anomalies over East Asia for summers with high and low EAP index, respectively. These figures show that with either high or low EAP index summers, which correspond respectively to drought and flood conditions in the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys, the summer monsoon circulation anomalies also exhibit the meridional tripole pattern distribution over East and Northeast Asia. The above results show that the interannual variability of EASM clearly exhibits a quasi-biennial oscillation with a meridional tripole pattern distribution over East Asia and the tropical western Pacific. This may be a significant characteristic of the interannual variability of EASM. The frequency of drought and flood disasters also exhibit a quasi-biennial oscillation in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River valleys, and the spatial distributions of these disasters often appear in the form of a meridional tripole pattern over East Asia. 3.4 Interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and its relation to the EASM East Asia is also a region of a strong winter monsoon. The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) features strong northwesterlies over North China, Northeast China, Korea and Japan and strong northeasterlies along the coast of East China (e.g., Staff members of Academia Sinica, 1957; Chen et al., 1991; Ding, 1994). A strong winter monsoon can bring not only disasters, such as wintertime low temperatures and severe snow storms in Northwest and Northeast China, North Korea, and North Japan, and springtime severe dust-storms in North and Northwest China, but also can cause strong convection over the maritime continent of Borneo and Indonesia. (e.g., Chang et al., 1979; Lau and Chang, 1987). Also, strong and frequent cold waves caused by the strong EAWM can trigger the occurrence of El Niño (e.g., Li, 1988). Chen and Graf (1998), and Chen et al. (2000) systematically investigated the interannual variability of EAWM and its relation to the EASM with a new definition of the EAWM index. This index is defined by using the normalized meridional wind anomalies at 10 m over the East China Sea (25 40 N, 120 140 E) and the South China Sea (10 25 N, 110 130 E), averaged over November to March period following winter. Wu and Wang (2002) proposed an intensity index of the EAWM defined as the sum of zonal sea-surface pressure differences (110 E minus 160 E) over 20 70 N with a 2.5 2.5 resolution in latitude and longitude. Results of the above mentioned studies show there is a significant variability in the interannual variations of EAWM. Recently, Huang et al. (2007) investigated the interannual variations of the EAWM and its anomalies in the winters of 2005 and 2006 using the intensity index of EAWM defined by Wu and Wang (2002). They pointed out that, as shown in Fig. 10, the interannual variability of EAWM is significant and there is a clear difference between the EAWM intensity in the winter of 2005 (December 2005 February 2006) and the winter of 2006 (December 2006 February 2007). This was reflected in the different climate anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, especially in East Asia, during these two winters. The EAWM intensity can influence the following EASM intensity. The study by Chen et al. (2000) showed that following a strong (weak) EAWM, a drought (flood) summer may occur in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River valleys. For example, in the summer of 1998, the severe flood shown in Fig. 17 in section 5.1 occurred in the Yangtze River valley following the weak EAWM in the winter of 1997. 3.5 Interdecadal variability of the EASM 3.5.1 A dipole pattern distribution in the interdecadal variability of EASM over East Asia Huang et al. (1999b), and Huang (2001b) analyzed the interdecadal variations of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia, and Chen et al. (2004) systematically discussed the characteristics of the climate change in China during the last 80 years. These results showed that the interdecadal fluctuations in summer (June August) monsoon rainfall are more obvious than those in surface air temperature in East Asia. Huang et al. (1999b) pointed out that summer monsoon rainfall began to decrease in North China from the mid-1960s, especially from the late 1970s to the late 1990s. This resulted in prolonged severe droughts in this region, as shown in Fig. 18 of section 5. They also pointed out that the interdecadal variations of summer monsoon rainfall in North China are similar to those in the Sahelian region of Africa. Ren et al. (2004) also discussed the close linkage between the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation in North China and those in the Sahelian region. The opposite phenomenon, namely summer rainfall clearly increasing from the late 1970s

1004 CHARACTERISTICS AND VARIATIONS OF THE EAST ASIAN MONSOON SYSTEM VOL. 24 Year Fig. 8. (a) Spatial distribution and (b) corresponding time coefficient series of the first component of zonal water vapour transports in summer. Moisture and wind fields are taken from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1949 to 1999 (e.g., Kalnay et al., 1996). EOF1 explains 27.0% of the variance. appears in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River valleys and Northwest China. This interdecadal oscillation can be seen also in the dipole pattern in the spatial distribution of the EOF2 of summer rainfall in China and corresponding EOF2 time-coefficient series (Fig. 7b). This interdecadal variability of summer monsoon rainfall also appears in the frequency of heavy rainfall. As shown by Bao and Huang (2006), more heavy rainfall occurred in the 1980s than the 1970s in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys and was followed by a further increase in the 1990s. In conjunction with this, however, a decrease of heavy rainfall occurred in the eastern part of North China since the late 1970s and has continued to the present. 3.5.2 Possible impact of the African summer monsoon on the EASM on an interdecadal timescale The decrease of summer monsoon rainfall in North China from 1965, especially from the late 1970s, is closely associated with the weakening of the EASM. As pointed out by Huang and Zhou (2004), and Huang et al. (2004b), southerly winds over North China clearly weakened. Recently, Huang et al. (2006c) analyzed the interdecadal variations of drought and flood disasters in China and their association with the EAM system. As shown in Fig. 11, an interdecadal meridional tripole circulation anomaly distribution, similar to the EAP pattern teleconnection, appeared over the West Pacific in the late 1970s. This was influenced by the interdecadal El Niño-like SST anomaly pattern which became apparent in the tropical central and eastern Pacific from the late 1970s and has continued to the present. Comparison of Fig. 11b with Fig. 11a shows the anticyclonic anomaly located over the Mongolian Plateau during 1961 1976 clearly shifted southward to North China, and a cyclonic anomaly appeared over the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River valleys from the late 1970s. Thus, the circulation anomalies exhibited a meridional dipole pattern distribution over East Asia during this period. This led to the weakening of the EASM in North China and the southward and westward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high to south of the Yangtze River. On the other hand, the results also showed that the interdecadal variability of the Walker circulation from the late 1970s to the present resulted in intensification of the descending branch over North Africa, which led to intensification of the anticyclonic anomaly circulation over the Sahelian region and eastern North Africa (Fig. 11b). Due to propagation of quasi-stationary planetary waves, the intensification of the anticyclonic anomaly over the Sahelian region led to the appearance of an anticyclonic anomaly over South China and the Indo-China Peninsula beginning in the mid-late 1970s. Also, as shown in Figs. 11a and 11b, the distribution of interdecadal anomalies in the circulation in the lower troposphere over mid- and high latitudes appeared in a Eurasian (EU) pattern-like teleconnection. Additionally, anticyclonic anomalies over North China appeared after 1976. These led to weakening of the southerly monsoon flow in North China and water vapor convergence in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River valleys. The net result was an interdecadal variation of droughts and floods in China beginning in the late 1970s. 3.6 Interdecadal variability of the EAWM The EAWM also has a significant interdecadal variability. As shown in Fig. 10, the EAWM was stronger from the mid-1970s to the late 1980s but tended to be weaker from the late 1980s to late 1990s. This latter period was associated with continuously warm winters in China and an increase of spring rainfall in North and Northwest China (e.g., Huang and Wang, 2006;

NO. 6 HUANG ET AL. 1005 + _ Fig. 9. Composite anomaly distributions of the 500 hpa height anomalies over East Asia and the tropical western Pacific for the summers with (a) high and (b) low EAP index. Units: gpm. Areas of confidence level over 95% are shaded. Height fields are taken from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (e.g., Kalnay et al., 1996). Kang et al., 2006). The interdecadal variations of the EASM and EAWM have a significant impacts not only on drought and flood disasters in China, but also on the marine environment offshore of the Chinese mainland, including the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea. According to the study by Cai et al. (2006), since the winter and summer monsoon flows became weak offshore of China from 1976 to the present, winter and summer sea-surface wind stresses, especially the meridional component, have weakened, and SSTs have noticeably increased. These events can provide a favorable marine environment for the frequent occurrence of red tide in oceanic regions offshore of China. 4. The EAM climate system and its variabilities As shown by Webster et al. (1998), the monsoon is not just an atmospheric circulation system, but rather an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system. The interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the EASM and EAWM are influenced by many atmospheric circulation systems, such as the SAM, western Pacific

1006 CHARACTERISTICS AND VARIATIONS OF THE EAST ASIAN MONSOON SYSTEM VOL. 24 Fig. 10. The interannual variations of EAWM index based upon the definition of EAWM index by Wu and Wang (2002), based upon the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (e.g., Kalnay et al., 1996). subtropical high, atmospheric disturbances in mid-and high latitudes. Additionally, the variability of the EASM and EAWM are affected by features such as the thermal state of the West Pacific warm pool, convection around the Philippines, ENSO cycle in the tropical Pacific, dynamical and thermal influences of the Tibetan Plateau, including cold season snow cover, and land surface process in the arid and semi-arid areas of Northwest China. The components of an atmosphereocean-land coupled system associated with the EAM are shown schematically in Fig. 12. This coupled system can be referred to as the East Asian monsoon climate system (e.g., Huang et al., 2004a), which then may be considered a subsystem of the Asian- Australian monsoon coupled system (e.g., Webster et al., 1998). In order to understand the causes of variabilities in the EAM climate system, it is necessary to assess the interactive processes between the atmosphere and oceans and between the atmosphere and land surfaces. However, because of the complexity of these interactions, only the effects of atmosphere-ocean and atmosphere-land coupling are discussed. 4.1 Thermal effect of the tropical western Pacific on the EAM variability Oceans have a significant thermal-effect on the Asian monsoon systems. Yang and Lau (1998) studied the influences of SST and ground wetness (GW) on Asian monsoons using a GCM and showed that ocean basin-scale SST anomalies have a stronger impact on the interannual variability of the Asian monsoon systems than GW anomalies. Lu et al. (2002a) discussed the associations between the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and the South China Sea monsoon (SCSM). They found that weak (strong) convective activity, which has a large impact on the SCSM onset, is related to El Niño (La Niña) pattern SST anomalies in the preceding winter and in spring. Studies by many scholars (e.g., Nitta, 1987; Huang and Li, 1987; Kurihara, 1989; Huang and Sun, 1992) showed that the thermal state of the tropical western Pacific and convective activity around the Philippines play important roles in the interannual variability of EASM, as shown in Fig. 5. Nitta (1987), Huang and Li (1987), and Huang and Sun (1992, 1994) made systematic investigations of the thermal influence of the tropical western Pacific and convection around the Philippines on the interannual variability of the EASM circulation based upon observational data and dynamical theory. They proposed the P-J oscillation or the EAP pattern teleconnection of summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere. As described in section 3, their results showed that the thermal state of the tropical western Pacific and convective activity around the Philippines have an obvious effect on the meridional shifts of the western Pacific subtropical high in summer. Lu (2001), and Lu and Dong (2001) also showed convective activity over the tropical western Pacific has a significant impact on the zonal shifts of the western Pacific subtropical high. Moreover, Huang et al. (2005) pointed out that the onset date of SCSM is closely associated with the thermal states of the tropical western Pacific and convective activity around the Philippines in spring. Recently, Huang et al. (2005), and Huang et al. (2006b) investigated the interannual variability in the thermal state of subsurface waters of the tropical west Pacific. It can be seen from Fig. 13 that there is a significant quasi-biennial oscillation in the interannual variations of thermal structure. As shown by Huang et al. (2005), the oscillation has a large impact on the interannual variability of the northward advance of EASM and the water vapor transports driven by the monsoon flow. As shown in Fig. 14a, the composite distribution of water vapor transport anomalies for the summers when the tropical west Pacific is warming is opposite to that for the summers with cooling (Fig. 14b). Also, the anomalies in the water vapor transports shown in Figs. 14a and 14b exhibit a meridional tripole pattern. Thus, the influence of the thermal state of the tropical western Pacific on water vapor transport over East Asia explain well the TBO contribution to the summer monsoon rainfall in China or East Asia (e.g., Huang et al., 2006b). 4.2 ENSO cycle and its impact on the EAM system It is well known that the ENSO cycle is one of the most striking phenomena of the tropical Pacific and

NO. 6 HUANG ET AL. 1007 (a) AC C AC C C AC AC C C C m s -1 (b) C AC C AC AC C AC C AC AC m s -1 Fig. 11. Interdecadal variations of the summer (JJA) circulation anomalies at 700 hpa over East Asia and tropical western Pacific: (a) 1966 1976; (b) 1977 2000. Normals based upon the climatological monthly mean circulation for 1961 1990. Wind fields obtained from the ERA-40 reanalysis data (e.g., Uppala et al., 2005). has a great influence on the Asian-Australian monsoon system. Weak SASMs tend to occur in El Niño years (e.g., Webster et al., 1998). Huang and Wu s study (1989) was the first to show that summer monsoon rainfall anomalies in East Asia depend on the stage of ENSO cycle, and these anomalies are closely related to the position of the western Pacific subtropical high. Recently, Huang and Zhou (2002) pointed out from composite analyses of summer monsoon rainfall anomalies for different stages of the ENSO cycle during the period of 1951 2000 that droughts in North China tend to occur in the developing stage (Fig. 15a). During the decaying stage of El Niño events, floods tend to occur in the Yangtze River valley of China, especially in the regions south of the Yangtze River (Fig. 15b). Zhang et al. (1996), Huang et al. (2001), and Zhang (2001) also pointed out that southerly wind anomalies can appear in the lower troposphere over the SCS and the southeastern coast of China during the mature and decaying stages of ENSO. In this case, since an anticyclonic anomaly tends to appear over the Philippine Sea, the corresponding intensification of southerly

1008 CHARACTERISTICS AND VARIATIONS OF THE EAST ASIAN MONSOON SYSTEM VOL. 24 Fig. 12. Schematic map of various components of the EAM climate system. winds is favorable for the transport of water vapor from the Bay of Bengal and the tropical western Pacific to South China. Thus, during the mature phase of El Niño events, rainfall generally is stronger in South China. The ENSO cycle also has a significant influence on the annual cycle between the EAWM and the EASM. Chen et al. (2002), and Huang et al. (2004b) proposed that the interannual variations of the EAWM are closely associated with the ENSO cycle. Chen (2002) analyzed the composite distribution of the meridional wind anomalies at 850 hpa for winters preceding El Niño events. He showed that that there are anomalous northerly winds from the coastal area of China to the SCS and, thus, the EAWM is strong. He also pointed out that there is an anomalous cyclonic circulation over the West Pacific and anomalous northeasterly winds over the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys and the southeastern coast of China These features indicate a weak western Pacific subtropical high and a weak EASM in a summer when an El Niño is developing. Moreover, following the development stage, an El Niño event generally reaches its maturity, and anomalous southerly winds prevail in the southeastern coast of China and SCS. This points generally to a weak EAWM. In the following summer, the El Niño event may decay, and there is an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the West Pacific about a strong western Pacific subtropical high. In this case, anomalous southwesterly winds occur over the region from South China to the Yangtze River valley and, therefore, indicate that a strong EASM may appear in when an El Niño event is in its decaying phase. Since El Niño events can cause severe climate anomalies in many regions of the world, especially in the Asian-Australian monsoon region (e.g., Webster et al., 1998), many meteorologists and oceanographers focus upon studies of the recurrent nature and associated physical mechanisms of the ENSO cycle (e.g., Bjerknes, 1969; Philander, 1981; McCreary, 1983; McCreary and Anderson, 1984; Yamagata and Matsumoto, 1989; Anderson and McCreary, 1985; Cane and Zebiak, 1985; Schopf and Suarez, 1988; Chao and Zhang, 1988; Mc- Creary and Anderson, 1991). Especially because of the interaction between the Asian-Australian monsoon system and ENSO, the relevant physical processes of ENSO cycles are very complex. The tropical western Pacific provides the necessary thermal conditions for ENSO (e.g. Huang and Wu, 1992; Li and Mu, 1999; Li and Mu, 2000; Chao et al., 2002, 2003), and the atmospheric circulation and zonal wind anomalies over this region can provide the necessary dynamical conditions. Li (1988, 1990) pointed out the triggering effect of the anomalous wind fields associated with EAWM on El Niño events. Huang and Fu (1996), Huang et al. (1998c), Huang et al. (2001) analyzed the atmospheric circulation and zonal wind anomalies in the lower troposphere over the tropical western Pacific and their roles in the development and decay processes of El Niño events in the 1980s and 1990s. Figures 16a d show the distributions of the seasonalmean circulation anomaly fields at 850 hpa over the tropical western Pacific before the development stage of El Niño evolution. From these figures it can be seen that before the development, there are cyclonic circulation anomalies in the lower troposphere over the tropical western Pacific that were responsible for the westerly wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific around Indonesia. The westerly wind anomalies in turn were favorable for the formation of the eastward-

NO. 6 HUANG ET AL. 1009 Fig. 13. Time-depth cross section of sea temperature anomalies averaged form 5 N to 10 N along 137 E. Units: C. Solid and dashed lines indicate positive and negative anomalies, respectively. Data obtained from the Oceanographic Research Vessel Ryofu-Maru, JMA. propagating warm Kelvin wave along the equatorial Pacific that gives rise to the El Niño events. Zhang et al. (1996), and Huang et al. (2001) also analyzed the distributions of the seasonal mean circulation anomalies at 850 hpa over the tropical western Pacific for the mature phase of the El Niño events (not shown). The results showed that in the mature phase of El Niño there are also obvious anticyclonic circulation anomalies in the lower troposphere over the tropical western Pacific. These resulted in the easterly wind anomalies over the region from Papua-New Guinea to Sumatra Island along Indonesia conducive to development of an eastward-propagating cold Kelvin wave along the equatorial Pacific that results in the decay and ultimate demise of El Niño events. Huang et al. (2001), and Huang et al. (2004b) further discussed theoretically the dynamical influence of the westerly wind anomalies over the tropical Pacific on the development and decay of the 1997/98 El Niño event using a simple tropical air-sea coupled model and observed anomalous near sea-surface wind stress of the tropical Pacific during 1997 and 1998. The results identified the triggering effect of zonal wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific on the equatorial oceanic Kelvin and Rossby waves in the tropical Pacific. From the above studies it can be seen that the thermal and dynamical influences within and over the tropical western Pacific play an important role in ENSO cycles. Additionally, the coastal boundary of the West Pacific has an important effect on El Niño by reflecting equatorial oceanic Rossby waves, as shown in the theory of the delayed oscillator proposed by Cane and Zebiak (1985), and Schopf and Suarez (1988). 4.3 Thermal effects of the Tibetan Plateau on the EAM System The Tibetan Plateau has important thermal and dynamical effects on the interannual variability of the EASM. Ye and Gao (1979) first described the thermal effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the ASM. Later, many investigators noted that the heating anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau has a large impact on the ASM anomalies (e.g., Nitta, 1983; Luo and Yanai, 1984; Huang, 1984, 1985). Wu and Zhang (1997) explained how the heating over the Tibetan Plateau acts