May 2017 Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study / Transportation Impact Study GoogleEarth 2015 Prepared for: Prepared by:
Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study Final Draft prepared for: Yonge Eglinton Centre 2300 Yonge Street, Suite 500 P.O. Box 2386 Toronto, Ontario M4P 1E4 prepared by: 1223 Michael Street Suite 100 Ottawa, ON K1J 7T2 May 12, 2017 602881-01000
Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION... 1 1.1. STUDY AREA CONTEXT... 3 1.2. CTS PROCESS AND ANALYSIS CONTEXT... 3 2. EXISTING CONDITIONS... 3 2.1. STUDY AREA ROAD NETWORK... 3 2.2. EXISTING STUDY AREA INTERSECTIONS... 4 2.3. TRANSIT NETWORK... 5 2.4. PEDESTRIAN & CYCLING NETWORK... 6 2.5. EXISTING TRAFFIC OPERATIONS... 7 2.6. EXISTING SCREENLINE ANALYSIS... 9 3. EXISTING MULTI-MODAL LEVEL OF SERVICE... 11 3.1. SMYTH/RUSSELL & OTHELLO INTERSECTION... 11 3.1.1. Pedestrians - PLoS... 11 3.1.2. Cyclists - BLoS... 13 3.1.3. Transit - TLoS... 13 3.1.4. Trucks - TkLoS... 14 3.2. ST. LAURENT/TRANSIT ACCESS INTERSECTION... 14 3.2.1. Pedestrians - PLoS... 14 3.2.2. Cyclists - BLoS... 16 3.2.3. Transit - TLoS... 16 3.2.4. Trucks - TkLoS... 16 3.3. TRANSIT ROAD SEGMENT... 17 3.3.1. Pedestrian PloS... 17 3.3.2. Cyclists - BLoS... 17 3.3.3. Transit - TLoS... 18 3.3.4. Truck - TkLoS... 18 3.4. OTHELLO AVENUE ROAD SEGMENT... 18 3.4.1. Pedestrian PloS... 19 3.4.2. Cyclists - BLoS... 19 3.4.3. Transit - TLoS... 20 3.4.4. Truck - TkLoS... 20 4. DEMAND FORECASTING... 20 4.1. BACKGROUND TRAFFIC GROWTH... 20 4.2. SITE TRIP GENERATION... 20 4.3. VEHICLE TRAFFIC DISTRIBUTION AND ASSIGNMENT... 23 5. FUTURE TRAFFIC OPERATIONS... 30 5.1. 2025 FUTURE BACKGROUND CONDITIONS... 30 Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study i
5.1.1. 2025 Future Background Screenline Analysis... 31 5.2. 2025 TOTAL FUTURE CONDITIONS... 33 5.2.1. 2025 Total Future Screenline Analysis... 35 5.3. 2031 FUTURE BACKGROUND CONDITIONS... 36 5.3.1. 2031 Future Background Screenline Analysis... 38 5.4. 2031 TOTAL FUTURE CONDITIONS... 40 5.4.1. 2031 Total Future Screenline Analysis... 44 6. PROJECTED MULTI-MODAL LEVEL OF SERVICE... 47 6.1. SMYTH/RUSSELL & OTHELLO INTERSECTION... 47 6.1.1. Pedestrians - PLoS... 47 6.1.2. Cyclists - BLoS... 48 6.1.3. Transit - TLoS... 49 6.1.4. Trucks - TkLoS... 49 6.2. ST. LAURENT/TRANSIT ACCESS INTERSECTION... 50 6.2.1. Pedestrians - PLoS... 50 6.2.2. Cyclists - BLoS... 50 6.2.3. Transit - TLoS... 51 6.2.4. Trucks - TkLoS... 51 6.3. TRANSIT ROAD SEGMENT... 51 6.3.1. Pedestrian PloS... 52 6.3.2. Cyclists - BLoS... 52 6.3.3. Transit - TLoS... 52 6.3.4. Truck - TkLoS... 53 6.4. OTHELLO AVENUE ROAD SEGMENT... 53 6.4.1. Pedestrian PloS... 54 6.4.2. Cyclists - BLoS... 54 6.4.3. Transit - TLoS... 54 6.4.4. Truck - TkLoS... 54 6.5. SUMMARY OF MMLOS... 55 7. TRANSPORTATION PLAN RECOMMENDATIONS... 55 7.1. TRANSIT STATION AND PRIORITY MEASURES... 55 7.2. ST. LAURENT ROUNDABOUT... 58 7.3. OTHELLO ROAD COMPLETE STREET... 58 7.4. DEMONSTRATION PLAN CONSIDERATIONS... 59 7.4.1. Chapman Boulevard... 59 7.4.2. Truck Loading... 61 7.4.3. Parking Garage Access... 62 7.5. TRANSPORTATION DEMAND MANAGEMENT... 62 8. CONCLUSIONS... 63 Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study ii
List of Figures Figure 1: Local Site Context... 1 Figure 2: Elmvale Acres Redevelopment Demonstration Plan (new one)... 2 Figure 3: Existing Transit Network... 6 Figure 4: Study Area Cycling Facilities (Existing and Proposed)... 7 Figure 5: Existing Peak Hour Traffic Volumes... 8 Figure 6: Existing Screenline... 10 Figure 7: Existing Smyth/Russell & Othello Intersection... 11 Figure 8: Existing St. Laurent/Transit Intersection... 14 Figure 9: Existing Transit Road Segment... 17 Figure 10: Existing Othello Avenue Road Segment... 19 Figure 11: Percent Traffic Assignment Phase 1... 24 Figure 12: Percent Traffic Assignment - 50%/100% Build-out - North... 25 Figure 13: Percent Traffic Assignment 50%/100% Build-out - South... 26 Figure 14: Phase 1 Site Generated Traffic... 27 Figure 15: 50% Build-out Site Generated Traffic... 28 Figure 16: 100% Build-out Site Generated Traffic... 29 Figure 17: Future Background (2025) Traffic Volumes... 30 Figure 18: Future Background (2025) Screenline Analysis... 32 Figure 19: Total Projected (2025) Traffic Volumes... 33 Figure 20: Total Future (2025) Screenline... 35 Figure 21: Future Background (2031) Traffic Volumes... 37 Figure 22: Future Background (2031) Screenline... 39 Figure 23:Total Future (2031) 50% Build-out Traffic Volumes... 40 Figure 24:Total Future (2031) 100% Build-out Traffic Volumes... 41 Figure 25: Total Future (2031) Screenline... 44 Figure 26: 2031 Total Future (2031) 100% Build-out Screenline... 46 Figure 27: Proposed Smyth/Russell & Othello Intersection... 47 Figure 28: Proposed St. Laurent/Transit Intersection... 50 Figure 29: Proposed Transit Road Segment... 51 Figure 30: Proposed Othello Avenue Road Segment... 53 Figure 31: Transit Priority Measures Route... 56 Figure 32: Proposed Roundabout / Existing Signalized Intersection... 58 Figure 33: Previously Proposed Site Access Configuration... 60 Figure 34: Final Access Configuration... 61 Figure 35: Truck Loading Bay WB-20 Turning Template... 62 List of Tables Table 1: Turning Movement Count Data Summary... 7 Table 2: Operational Analysis - Existing Conditions... 9 Table 3: Existing Screenline Analysis... 10 Table 4: PETSI Evaluation Smyth/Russell & Othello... 12 Table 5: Existing BLoS Smyth/Othello & Russell... 13 Table 6: Existing TLoS Smyth/Russell & Othello Intersection... 13 Table 7: Existing TkLoS Smyth/Russell & Othello Intersection... 14 Table 8: PETSI Evaluation St. Laurent/Transit Access... 15 Table 9: Existing BLoS St. Laurent/Transit Access... 16 Table 10: Existing TLoS St. Laurent/Transit Access Intersection... 16 Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study iii
Table 11: Existing TkLoS St. Laurent/Transit Access Intersection... 16 Table 12: Existing PLoS Transit Road Segment... 17 Table 13: Existing BLoS Transit Road Segment... 17 Table 14: Existing TLoS Transit Road Segment... 18 Table 15: Existing TkLoS Transit Road Segment... 18 Table 16: Existing PLoS Othello Avenue Road Segment... 19 Table 17: Existing BLoS Transit Road Segment... 19 Table 18: Existing TkLoS Othello Avenue Road Segment... 20 Table 19: ITE Trip Generation Rates... 20 Table 20: Mode Share... 21 Table 21: Phase 1 Person Trip Generation... 21 Table 22: Phase 1 Modal Trip Generation... 21 Table 23: 50% Build-out Person Trip Generation... 22 Table 24: 50% Build-out Modal Trip Generation... 22 Table 25: 100% Build-out Person Trip Generation... 22 Table 26: 100% Build-out Modal Trip Generation... 22 Table 27: Mode Share... 23 Table 28: Operational Analysis 2025 Future Background Conditions... 31 Table 29: Future Background (2025) Screenline Analysis... 32 Table 30: Operational Analysis Total Projected (2025) Conditions... 34 Table 31: Total Future (2025) Screenline Analysis... 36 Table 32: Operational Analysis Future Background (2031) Conditions... 38 Table 33: Future Background (2031) Screenline Analysis... 39 Table 34: Operational Analysis Total Future (2031) 50% Build-out Traffic Volumes Conditions... 42 Table 35: Operational Analysis Total Future (2031) 100% Build-out Traffic Volumes Conditions... 43 Table 36: Total Future (2031) 50% Build-out Screenline Analysis... 45 Table 37: Total Future (2031) 100% Build-out Screenline Analysis... 46 Table 38: PETSI Evaluation Proposed Smyth/Othello & Russell Intersection... 48 Table 39: Projected BLoS Smyth/Othello & Russell... 49 Table 40: Projected TLoS Smyth/Russell & Othello Intersection... 49 Table 41: Projected TkLoS Smyth/Russell & Othello Intersection... 49 Table 42: Projected BLoS St. Laurent/Transit Access Intersection... 50 Table 43: Projected TLoS St. Laurent/Transit Access Intersection... 51 Table 44: Projected TkLoS St. Laurent/Transit Access Intersection... 51 Table 45: Projected PLoS Transit Road Segment... 52 Table 46: Projected BLoS Transit Road Segment... 52 Table 47: Projected TLoS Transit Road Segment... 53 Table 48: Projected TkLoS Transit Road Segment... 53 Table 49: Projected PLoS Othello Avenue Road Segment... 54 Table 50: Projected BLoS Othello Avenue Road Segment... 54 Table 51: Projected TkLoS Othello Avenue Road Segment... 54 Table 52: MMLoS Evaluation Summary Existing and Projected... 55 Table 53: Transit Priority Measures Operational Analysis... 57 Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study iv
List of Appendices Appendix A Draft Secondary Plan Appendix B Terms of Reference Summary Appendix C Turning Movement Counts and Signal Timing Plan Appendix D Synchro Analysis Existing Conditions Appendix E Synchro Analysis 2025 Future Background Conditions Appendix F Synchro Analysis 2025 Total Future Conditions Appendix G Synchro Analysis 2031 Future Background Conditions Appendix H Synchro Analysis 2031 Total Future Conditions Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study v
Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre CTS 1. INTRODUCTION This study has been prepared to support a Secondary Plan and a Zoning By-Law Amendment (ZBA) for RIOCAN s proposed redevelopment of the Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre. The proposed mixed use, transit oriented development will include 11,850 m 2 of commercial development, 28 townhouse units, and 547 residential units. The commercial development will be split across three independent buildings and below the four residential towers, replacing the existing 15,150 m 2 of commercial development, a net reduction of 3,300m 2. Smaller scale commercial uses will front on to Othello Avenue, backing onto the larger commercial buildings. The 547 residential units are split between four towers. While the plan focuses on active modes and transit use, from a traffic perspective, the primary concern is the increase in traffic from the residential units. However, this is offset by the reduction in commercial area and results in a reduction in trips generated by the commercial uses. The local site context is illustrated in Figure 1. Appendix A contains the draft Secondary Plan. The Secondary Plan is informed by a Demonstration Plan that was developed to assist all stakeholders with visualizing how this Secondary Plan may unfold in the future, including modifications to the transportation network. Figure 2 illustrates the Demonstration Plan. It should be noted that the unit counts and gross floor area are preliminary numbers that have been used for this evaluation only. These values are subject to change as the plan develops. Small changes to these numbers will have a negligible impact on this report and the findings should be considered valid regardless of small changes in the Demonstration Plan. Figure 1: Local Site Context SITE Consistent with the City of Ottawa s 2006 Transportation Impact Assessment Guidelines (TIA Guidelines), and the approved Terms of Reference, forwarded to City Staff on February 13, 2017, a Community Transportation Study, including a Multi- Modal Level of Service (MMLOS), is required to support the subject development application. The following horizons will be considered in the demand forecasting and operational analysis, 2017 (Existing Conditions), 2025 (Phase 1 Build-Out), and 2031 (several Build-Out scenarios will be tested at this horizon). Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 1
SHARED LANE SHARED LANE SHARED LANE BUS ONLY LANE
1.1. STUDY AREA CONTEXT The subject site is bound by Smyth Road to the north, St. Laurent Boulevard to the east, an apartment complex to the south adjacent to the site, and Othello Avenue to the west. The land use to the west on the other side of Othello Avenue is low density residential. Access to/from the subject site is currently provided via four separate full-movement driveway connections (two connections to St. Laurent Boulevard and two connections to Othello Avenue), a right-in/right-out driveway connection to St. Laurent Boulevard and a single right-in only driveway connection to Smyth Road. 1.2. CTS PROCESS AND ANALYSIS CONTEXT This Community Transportation Study is the compilation of several studies, and consultation activities for the Elmvale Acres Secondary Plan exercise. The previous transportation work has included: Community Transportation Study / Transportation Impact Study, December 2015 Community Consultation / Workshop, September 2016 Transportation Master Plan, November 2016 Public Open House, May 2017 The analysis and consultation has informed this study (CTS) and support the subject Secondary Plan. In addition to the previous work listed, a Terms of Reference (TOR) was prepared and submitted to the City of Ottawa. The TOR transportation analysis assumptions are listed in Appendix B. 2. EXISTING CONDITIONS 2.1. STUDY AREA ROAD NETWORK Smyth Road is an east-west arterial roadway with a four-lane cross-section within the study area. It extends from George McIlraith Bridge in the west, where it continues as Main Street, and St. Laurent Boulevard in the east, where it continues as Lancaster Road. Within the study area, the posted speed limit is 50 km/h. St. Laurent Boulevard is a north-south arterial roadway north of Russell Road and a collector roadway west of Russell Road. Within the study area, St. Laurent Boulevard has a four-lane cross-section with auxiliary turn lanes provided at major intersections. It extends from Sandridge Road in the north to Don Reid Drive in the south. Within the study area, the posted speed limit is 50 km/h. Lancaster Road is an east-west collector roadway with a two-lane cross-section. It extends from St. Laurent Boulevard in the west, where it continues as Smyth Road, and Walkley Road in the south. Within the study area, the unposted (default) speed limit is 50 km/h. Russell Road is a discontinuous north-south roadway with a section operating between Industrial Avenue and Smyth Road as a collector roadway and another section operating south of St. Laurent Boulevard as an arterial roadway. It has a twolane cross-section and its full extent is between Industrial Avenue in the north and Ramsayville Road in the south. Within the study area, the posted speed limit is 50 km/h. Pleasant Park Road is an east-west collector roadway with a two-lane cross-section. It extends from Riverside Drive in the west and St. Laurent Boulevard in the east. Within the study area, the unposted (default) speed limit is 50 km/h. Heavy trucks are prohibited on Pleasant Park Road, despite this, local truck trips (i.e. delivery trucks, moving trucks, etc.) are required to access the Loblaws loading bay. Othello Avenue is a north-south local roadway with a two-lane cross-section. It extends from Smyth Road in the north and Pleasant Park Road in the south. Within the study area, the unposted speed limit is understood to be 50 km/h. Heavy Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 3
trucks are prohibited on Othello Avenue, despite this, local truck trips (i.e. delivery trucks, moving trucks, etc.) are required to access the Loblaws loading bay. 2.2. EXISTING STUDY AREA INTERSECTIONS Smyth/Russell/Othello The Smyth/Russell/Othello intersection is a signalized four-legged intersection. The eastbound and westbound approaches consist of a single left-turn lane, a through lane and a shared through/right-turn lane. The northbound and southbound approaches consist of a single full-movement lane. The southbound leg is offset by approximately 20 m. All movements are permitted at this location. In the east and westbound directions, right-turns on red lights are not permitted. St. Laurent/Lancaster/Smyth The St. Laurent/Lancaster/Smyth intersection is a signalized four-legged intersection. The northbound and southbound approaches consist of a single leftturn lane, two through lanes, and a channelized rightturn lane. The eastbound approach consists of two left-turn lanes, a through lane and channelized rightturn lane. The westbound approach consists of a single left-turn lane, a through lane, and a shared through/channelized right-turn lane. All movements are permitted at this location. St. Laurent/Russell The St. Laurent/Russell intersection is a signalized three-legged intersection. The northbound approach consists of a single left-turn lane and two through lanes. The southbound approach consists of two through lanes and a channelized right-turn lane. The eastbound approach consists of a single left-turn lane and a shared left-turn/channelized right-turn lane. All movements are permitted at this location. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 4
St. Laurent/Pleasant Park The St. Laurent/Pleasant Park intersection is a signalized three-legged intersection. The northbound approach consists of a single left-turn lane and a single through lane. The southbound approach consists of a single through lane and a right-turn lane. The eastbound approach consists of a single left-turn lane and a single right-turn lane. All movements are permitted at this location. St. Laurent/Transit Loop The St. Laurent/Transit Loop intersection is a signalized three-legged intersection. The northbound approach consists of a single left-turn lane and two through lanes. The southbound approach consists of a through lane and a shared through/channelized right-turn lane. The eastbound approach consists of left-turn lane and a channelized right-turn lane. All movements are permitted at this location. 2.3. TRANSIT NETWORK The subject site includes a transit loop providing local transit service (Routes #86, #106, #112, #114, #148 and #149) to/from the sites frontage to St. Laurent Boulevard. The 2013 City of Ottawa Transportation Master Plan identifies St. Laurent Boulevard as a Bus Rapid Transit/Transit Priority Corridor. The existing transit network is illustrated in Figure 3. It is noteworthy that the City is currently undertaking an EA Study of Transit Priority on St. Laurent Boulevard from the Russell Road intersection to north of Innes Road. When implemented, faster and more reliable transit service will be available, which will benefit all transit riders. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 5
SITE Figure 3: Existing Transit Network 2.4. PEDESTRIAN & CYCLING NETWORK Sidewalks are currently provided along both sides of St. Laurent Boulevard and Smyth Road. Sidewalks are provided on one side of Othello Avenue, Pleasant Park Road, and Lancaster Road. Sidewalks and crosswalks are also provided through the existing development to facilitate access to the existing commercial developments and to the Transit Station that runs along the east side of the site. Per the City s Cycling Plan, there is an existing suggested route along Russell Road, connecting to Othello Avenue, and Pleasant Park Road. Additionally, Figure 4 highlights the planned cycling routes within the Study Area. Additionally, a new cycle track is under construction as part of the St. Laurent Boulevard widening, from Industrial Avenue to Smyth Road. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 6
Figure 4: Study Area Cycling Facilities (Existing and Proposed) SITE 2.5. EXISTING TRAFFIC OPERATIONS To examine the existing traffic network, turning movement counts were requested from the City of Ottawa. Where data was unavailable turning movement count surveys were undertaken. Table 1 below documents the date of each count that was used. Table 1: Turning Movement Count Data Summary Count Location Date Counted Hamlet Rd-Site & Othello Ave Tuesday, July 21, 2015 Smyth Rd E/Lancaster Rd @ St. Laurent Blvd Thursday, May 29, 2014 Othello Ave & Pleasant Park Rd Tuesday, July 14, 2015 Othello Ave & Site (Wednesday & Thursday), July (15 & 16), 2015 Othello Ave-Russell Rd & Smyth Rd Wednesday, August 1, 2012 Pleasant Park Rd & St. Laurent Blvd Tuesday, May 4, 2010 Russell Rd & St. Laurent Towers (Wednesday & Thursday), September (2&3), 2015 St. Laurent Blvd & Site (Wednesday & Thursday), July (15&16), 2015 St. Laurent Blvd & St. Laurent Blvd (Minor) (Wednesday & Thursday), July (22 & 23), 2015 Othello Ave & Chapman Dr. Tuesday, February 28, 2017 Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 7
The table above shows that the counts were undertaken several years apart. To adjust for the difference in data collection years a 1% background growth rate / annum was applied along the Arterial Roads to reflect growth outside of the Study Area up to 2017. Figure 5 illustrates the adjusted AM and PM peak hour volumes at the Study Area intersection. Turning movement count sheets have been included in Appendix C. Figure 5: Existing Peak Hour Traffic Volumes Table 2 summarizes the operational analysis of existing traffic conditions based on the Synchro (V9) traffic analysis software. The signalized intersections were assessed in terms of the volume-to-capacity (v/c) ratio and the corresponding Level of Service (LOS) for the critical movement(s). The signalized intersections, overall, were assessed based on weighted v/c ratio. The unsignalized intersections were assessed by examining the maximum delay on any one of the approaches. The SYNCHRO model output of existing conditions is provided within Appendix D. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 8
Table 2: Operational Analysis - Existing Conditions Weekday AM Peak (PM Peak) Intersection Critical Movement Intersection LoS max. v/c or avg. delay (s) Movement Delay (s) LoS v/c Othello/Russell/Smyth (TCS) D(D) 0.86(0.84) NBT(SBT) 28.2(45.0) A(B) 0.59(0.68) St. Laurent/Smyth/Lancaster D(F) 0.83(1.07) EBL(NBT) 41.0(60.6) C(E) 0.79(0.99) (TCS) Russell/St. Laurent (TCS) C(C) 0.73(0.73) EBL(EBL) 14.7(16.5) B(C) 0.64(0.73) St. Laurent/Transit Loop (TCS) A(A) 0.32(0.53) EBL(EBL) 7.8(8.0) A(A) 0.25(0.45) St. Laurent/Pleasant Park (TCS) A(C) 0.56(0.71) NBT(SBT) 9.1(13.3) A(B) 0.53(0.64) St. Laurent/Site (TWSC) C(D) 17(28.8) EB(EB) - - - Pleasant Park/Othello (AWSC) A(B) 9.1(10.5) EB(EB) - - - Othello/Hamlet/Site (TWSC) B(B) 11.6(14.5) EB(EB) - - - Othello/Site (TWSC) A(B) 9.7(11.5) EB(EB) - - - Russell/St. Laurent Towers (TWSC) C(D) 17.6(28.7) EB(EB) - - - Note: Analysis of signalized intersections assumes a PHF of 0.95 and a saturation flow rate of 1800 veh/h/lane. TWSC - Two Way Stop Control, with stop signs on the minor approach. Or stop control on a single leg of a T intersection AWSC All Way Stop Control TCS Traffic Control Signal The Study Area intersection generally operate with good LOS and reasonable V/C and delay. The intersection of St. Laurent/Smyth/Lancaster is an exception to this. The intersection was shown to operate with LOS E in the PM peak hour, with an overall v/c ratio of 0.99. Additionally, on the northbound through the existing volume was shown to exceed the theoretical capacity of the through movement. The unsignalized intersections are shown to operate with minimal delays and good LOS. No upgrades were required at the existing intersections to accommodate the current traffic volumes. 2.6. EXISTING SCREENLINE ANALYSIS To determine the regional network capacity, a screenline analysis was undertaken. This exercise draws an imaginary line across several roads and looks at the roadway capacity across this point. While each road is tabulated individually, the theory behind a screenline is the total capacity that is available in the network and the trip demands will normalize across each link. For this Study a screenline just north of Smyth Road was selected, crossing Russell Road and St. Laurent Boulevard. Figure 6 below illustrates the screenline volumes. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 9
Figure 6: Existing Screenline Table 3: Existing Screenline Analysis Screenline Station # Lanes Capacity Russell Road 1 800 St. Laurent Boulevard 2 2000 Total 3 2800 Direction Peak Vehicles v/c Northbound AM 183 0.23 PM 184 0.23 Southbound AM 171 0.21 PM 269 0.34 Northbound AM 1294 0.65 PM 2002 1.00 Southbound AM 1401 0.70 PM 1154 0.58 Northbound AM 1477 0.53 PM 2186 0.78 Southbound AM 1572 0.56 PM 1423 0.51 Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 10
As shown above, the existing screenline is operating with an overall maximum v/c ratio of 0.78 and, therefore, there is residual capacity available to accommodate additional traffic growth / development. The station at St. Laurent Road is at capacity during the PM peak hour in the northbound direction. 3. EXISTING MULTI-MODAL LEVEL OF SERVICE The Multi-Modal Level of Service (MMLoS) analysis tool has been adopted by the City of Ottawa to evaluate all modes of travel: cycling, walking, transit, trucks and vehicles. An MMLoS analysis is provided herein to assess the existing multimodal level of service for key locations within the study area. These intersections and roadway segments are: Intersections Roadway Segments Smyth/Russell & Othello St. Laurent/Transit Access 3.1. SMYTH/RUSSELL & OTHELLO INTERSECTION Transit Road Othello Avenue The following figure shows the existing configuration for the Smyth/Russell & Othello intersection. Figure 7: Existing Smyth/Russell & Othello Intersection 3.1.1. PEDESTRIANS - PLOS To evaluate the level of service for pedestrians at signalized intersections, the PETSI (Pedestrian Exposure to Traffic at Signalized Intersections) approach was applied as well as a Delay Score. The PETSI evaluation rates the intersection based on the number of lanes, types of conflicts, turning radius and crosswalk markings. The Delay Score evaluates the average wait time for pedestrians to cross the roadway. The following Table summarizes the PETSI evaluation and Delay Score for the existing Smyth/Russell & Othello intersection. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 11
Table 4: PETSI Evaluation Smyth/Russell & Othello As shown in the table, the overall PLoS for the Smyth/Russell & Othello intersection is PLoS F. This is because of the six vehicle lanes pedestrians are required to cross along the east leg of the intersection. The north and south legs of the intersection are currently operating at PLoS C and D based on the short crossing distance and the relatively short delay for pedestrians. The east and west legs of the intersection are currently operating at PLoS E and F based on the longer crossing distances and long delays. As the worst-case scenario governs the analysis, the overall intersection performance is PLoS F. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 12
3.1.2. CYCLISTS - BLOS Bicycle level of service (BLoS) at intersections is based on the Level of Traffic Stress (LTS) for a cyclist within the intersection. The existing intersection provides no bicycle facilities on all four approaches. As such, the bike level of service for the north and south legs is BLoS B and for the east and west legs, it is BLoS F given the number of travel lanes the cyclists have to cross to turn left. This is shown in the following table, which is an excerpt from the MMLoS Guidelines (Exhibit 11). As the intersection is governed by the worst-case scenario, the bike level of service for the Smyth/Russell & Othello intersection is BLoS F. Table 5: Existing BLoS Smyth/Othello & Russell 3.1.3. TRANSIT - TLOS The transit level of service (TLoS) at signalized intersections is based on the type of transit priority and the length of delay to busses (Exhibit 16 in the MMLoS Guidelines). As no transit priority is provided the TLoS is based on delays of approximately 30 to 38 seconds for general traffic (including busses) along Smyth Road. Based on this delay the transit level of service at the Smyth/Russell & Othello intersection is TLoS D as shown in the following table. Table 6: Existing TLoS Smyth/Russell & Othello Intersection Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 13
3.1.4. TRUCKS - TKLOS The signalized intersection truck level of service (TkLoS) is based on the number of lanes at the intersection and the effective corner radius. There is currently signage prohibiting trucks on Othello Avenue and Russell Road, however, as mentioned previously, truck deliveries for the proposed retail will require access to Othello Avenue. Based on the following table, the truck level of service at this intersection ranges from TkLoS D to F based on the small turn radii. The overall truck level of service is TkLoS F. Table 7: Existing TkLoS Smyth/Russell & Othello Intersection 3.2. ST. LAURENT/TRANSIT ACCESS INTERSECTION The following Figure shows the existing configuration for the St. Laurent/Transit Access intersection. Following the same process outlined in the above Section 3.1, the following analysis shows the existing MMLoS at this intersection. Figure 8: Existing St. Laurent/Transit Intersection 3.2.1. PEDESTRIANS - PLOS As shown in the following table, the overall PLoS for the St. Laurent/Transit Access intersection is PLoS F. This is because of the six vehicle lanes pedestrians are required to cross along the south leg of the intersection. The west and north legs of the intersection are currently operating at PLoS C and D. As the worst-case scenario governs the analysis, the overall intersection performance is PLoS F. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 14
Table 8: PETSI Evaluation St. Laurent/Transit Access Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 15
3.2.2. CYCLISTS - BLOS Similar to the Smyth/Russell intersection, this intersection requires cyclists to cross two lanes of traffic to turn left in the northbound direction. As such, the overall bike level of service is BLoS F, as shown in the following table. Table 9: Existing BLoS St. Laurent/Transit Access 3.2.3. TRANSIT - TLOS The transit level of service (TLoS) at signalized intersections is based on the type of transit priority and the length of delay to busses (Exhibit 16 in the MMLoS Guidelines). As no transit priority is provided at this location, the TLoS is based on delays of approximately 15 seconds for general traffic (including busses). Based on this delay the transit level of service at the St. Laurent/Transit Access intersection is TLoS C as shown in the following table. Table 10: Existing TLoS St. Laurent/Transit Access Intersection 3.2.4. TRUCKS - TKLOS The signalized intersection truck level of service (TkLoS) is based on the number of lanes at the intersection and the effective corner radius. The following table shows the truck level of service at this intersection to be TkLoS C. Table 11: Existing TkLoS St. Laurent/Transit Access Intersection Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 16
3.3. TRANSIT ROAD SEGMENT For the purpose of this proposed development, the road segment along the transit road located directly to the east of the subject development is evaluated in terms of MMLoS. This segment is shown in the following figure. Figure 9: Existing Transit Road Segment Features: 1.8 3.5 m sidewalks On-street parking along the east side only Three-lane cross-section southbound transit only, northbound general vehicle traffic Assumed operating speed of 50 km/h 3.3.1. Pedestrian PLOS Following the PLoS Segment Evaluation Table (Exhibit 4 in the MMLoS Guidelines), the following table summarizes the PLoS findings for this road segment. Table 12: Existing PLoS Transit Road Segment Road Segment Sidewalk Width (m) Boulevard Width (m) Traffic Volumes (AADT) On-street Parking Operating Speed (km/h) PLoS Transit Road west side 3.5 0 3,000 No 50 C Transit Road east side 1.8 0 3,000 Yes 50 C As shown in above table, the existing pedestrian level of service is PLoS C along this segment of road. 3.3.2. CYCLISTS - BLOS The road segment BLoS is based on the type of cycling facilities provided along the roadway. As there is no cycling facility provided along this portion of road, the resulting bike level of service is BLoS D as shown in the folloiwng table. Table 13: Existing BLoS Transit Road Segment Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 17
3.3.3. TRANSIT - TLOS Transit level of service (TLoS) in the southbound direction is considered to be TLoS A given this is a transit-only roadway with no driveways or parking. In the northbound direction, on-street parking and private driveways along the roadway increase the friction for busses and results in a TLoS E, as shown in the following table. Table 14: Existing TLoS Transit Road Segment 3.3.4. TRUCK - TKLOS The roadway segment truck level of service (TkLoS) for the northbound portion of this roadway is TkLoS B based on the following table. As the southbound road is transit only, TkLoS is not applicable for the southbound road segment. Table 15: Existing TkLoS Transit Road Segment 3.4. OTHELLO AVENUE ROAD SEGMENT For the purpose of this proposed development, a road segment along Othello Avenue is evaluated in terms of MMLoS. The segment south of Wingate Drive was selected which is shown in the following figure. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 18
Figure 10: Existing Othello Avenue Road Segment Features: 1.5 m sidewalk on the west side only On-street parking on the west side only Two-lane cross-section Assumed operating speed of 30 km/h 3.4.1. Pedestrian PLOS Following the PLoS Segment Evaluation Table (Exhibit 4 in the MMLoS Guidelines), the following table summarizes the PLoS findings for this road segment. Table 16: Existing PLoS Othello Avenue Road Segment Road Segment Sidewalk Width (m) Boulevard Width (m) Traffic Volumes (AADT) On-street Parking Operating Speed (km/h) PLoS Othello Ave. west side 1.5 3.5 3,000 Yes 50 C Othello Ave. east side No sidewalk - - - 50 F As shown in above table, the existing pedestrian level of service on the west side of the roadway is PLoS C, however, as no pedestrian facilities are provided along the east side of the roadway, the overall pedestrian level of service is PLoS F. 3.4.2. CYCLISTS - BLOS The road segment BLoS is based on the type of cycling facilities provided along the roadway. As there is no cycling facility provided along this portion of road, the resulting bike level of service is BLoS B as shown in the folloiwng table. Table 17: Existing BLoS Transit Road Segment Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 19
3.4.3. TRANSIT - TLOS As there is no transit service provided along this roadway, transit level of service (TLoS) is not included. 3.4.4. TRUCK - TKLOS As mentioned previously, truck access to Othello Avenue is required for the proposed retail developments. The roadway segment truck level of service (TkLoS) is TkLoS C based on the following table. Table 18: Existing TkLoS Othello Avenue Road Segment 4. DEMAND FORECASTING 4.1. BACKGROUND TRAFFIC GROWTH The subject development is a proposed restructuring and revitalization of an existing commercial development, the Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre, within the Elmvale Acres Neighbourhood. The well-established community is not anticipated to experience significant growth as any new developments would be infill projects, as there is a negligible amount of undeveloped land. As such, no traffic studies for new developments were available to predict background growth. As a conservative estimate of the background growth from beyond the Study Area a 1% / annum compound growth rate was applied to the Arterial Roads under consideration. 4.2. SITE TRIP GENERATION To estimate the impact of the proposed development on the road network it is necessary to estimate the traffic growth associated with the subject development. The following analyses adhere to the Terms of Reference that was agreed upon with the City of Ottawa prior to commencement of the CTS, see Section 1.2 for TOR details. Appropriate trip generation rates for the proposed development were obtained from the Ninth Edition of the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation Manual. The land use codes, trip generation rates, and trip generation rate equations that have been used for this study are summarized in Table 19. Table 19: ITE Trip Generation Rates Land Use Residential Condominium / Townhouse Data Source ITE 230 High Rise Apartment ITE 222 Shopping Center ITE 820 Notes: T = Average Vehicle Trip Ends X = 1000 ft 2 Gross Floor Area du = dwelling units AM Peak T = 0.44 (du) ; Ln(T) = 0.80 Ln (du) + 0.26 T = 0.30 (du) ; Ln(T) = 0.99Ln(du) 1.14 T = 0.96(X); Ln(T) = 0.61 Ln(X) + 2.24 Trip Rates PM Peak T = 0.52 (du) ; Ln(T) = 0.82 Ln (du) + 0.32 T = 0.35 (du) ; T = 0.32 (du) +12.30 T = 3.71(X); Ln(T) = 0.67 Ln(X) + 3.31 Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 20
ITE trip generation surveys only record vehicle trips and typically reflect suburban locations, with little to no access by travel modes other than private automobiles. Adjustment factors have been applied to reflect the urban nature of the site and to the estimate the person trip generation of the site. To convert ITE vehicle trip rates to person trips, an auto occupancy factor and a non-auto trip factor were applied to the ITE vehicle trip rates. Our review of available literature suggests that a combined factor of approximately 1.3 is considered reasonable to account for typical North American auto occupancy values of approximately 1.15 and combined transit and non-motorized modal shares of less than 10%. Using these factors, along with the rate equations in Table 19, the person trip generation for the proposed site was calculated by phase. The proposed redevelopment is planned to be undertaken in several phases. Beyond the first phase the exact timing and order of the build-out has not been determined. To understand the implications of the development at certain stages throughout the construction three horizons will be examined, the first phase, 50% of full build-out, and 100% of full buildout. Three trip generation estimates have been completed, one to reflect each of the scenarios that will be analyzed. To understand the impact of the person trips on the road network at each phase a new mode share was developed to reflect changes to the transit, pedestrian, and cycling network. As the transportation network will change over time, the mode share will also change over time. Table 20 below documents the mode shares used for the three scenarios that are to be examined. Table 20: Mode Share Mode Phase 1 50% FBO 100% FBO Auto Driver 50% 40% 30% Auto Passenger 10% 10% 10% Transit 25% 35% 45% Non-motorized 15% 15% 15% The above mode shares have been used to calculate the trip generation by mode for the Phase 1 development. Table 21 and Table 22 below summarize the trip generation for Phase 1. Table 21: Phase 1 Person Trip Generation Land Use Data AM Peak (Person Trips/hr) PM Peak (Person Trips/hr) Area Source In Out Total In Out Total Total Site ft² 62% 38% 48% 52% Shopping Center ITE 820 16,523 10 7 17 35 38 73 ft² Units 25% 75% 61% 39% High Rise Apartment ITE 222 138 du 13 42 55 44 29 73 Total 23 49 72 79 67 146 The shopping centre trips have been calculated to account for the increase in shopping centre area, the existing shopping centre is 163,000 ft 2 and the Phase 1 total commercial area will include approximately 180,000 ft 2. Table 22: Phase 1 Modal Trip Generation Travel Mode Mode Share AM Peak (Person Trips/hr) PM Peak (Person Trips/hr) In Out Total In Out Total Auto Driver 50% 12 25 37 40 34 74 Auto Passenger 10% 3 6 9 9 6 15 Transit 25% 6 11 17 19 17 36 Non-motorized 15% 2 7 9 11 10 21 Total Person Trips 100% 22 49 71 66 54 120 Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 21
Throughout the build-out, the amount of commercial space will fluctuate. With the construction of Phase 1 the commercial area on the site will be at a maximum, decreasing to a net reduction at full build-out. For the 50% build-out phase, it has been assumed that the traffic generated by the commercial areas would be approximately the same as the existing traffic generated by the commercial spaces. Table 23 and Table 24 below summarize the 50% build-out trip generation, therefore only the residential land uses have been accounted for in the trip generation. Land Use Data Source Table 23: 50% Build-out Person Trip Generation AM Peak (Person Trips/hr) PM Peak (Person Trips/hr) Area In Out Total In Out Total Units 17% 83% 67% 33% Residential Condominium / Townhouse ITE 230 14 du 2 12 14 10 6 16 Units 25% 75% 61% 39% High Rise Apartment ITE 222 274 du 27 81 108 79 51 130 Total 29 93 122 89 57 146 Table 24: 50% Build-out Modal Trip Generation Travel Mode Mode Share AM Peak (Person Trips/hr) PM Peak (Person Trips/hr) In Out Total In Out Total Auto Driver 40% 12 38 50 36 23 59 Auto Passenger 10% 3 10 13 9 6 15 Transit 35% 10 32 42 31 20 51 Non-motorized 15% 4 13 17 13 8 21 Total Person Trips 100% 29 93 122 89 57 146 As discussed previously, at full build-out a net reduction in the amount of commercial area is contemplated as part of the concept plan. This will result in a net reduction in the number of trips generated by the commercial areas of the development. Table 25 and Table 26 below summarize the 100% build-out trip generation. Table 25: 100% Build-out Person Trip Generation Land Use Data AM Peak (Person Trips/hr) PM Peak (Person Trips/hr) Area Source In Out Total In Out Total Total Site (net) ft² 62% 38% 48% 52% Shopping Center ITE 820-35,000 ft² -23-14 -37-77 -84-161 Units 17% 83% 67% 33% Residential Condominium / Townhouse ITE 230 28 du 4 20 24 18 10 28 Units 25% 75% 61% 39% High Rise Apartment ITE 222 547 du 53 161 214 148 96 244 Total 34 167 201 89 22 111 Table 26: 100% Build-out Modal Trip Generation Travel Mode Mode Share AM Peak (Person Trips/hr) PM Peak (Person Trips/hr) In Out Total In Out Total Auto Driver 30% 11 50 61 28 7 35 Auto Passenger 10% 5 16 21 9 2 11 Transit 45% 15 76 91 39 11 50 Non-motorized 15% 3 25 28 13 2 15 Total Person Trips 100% 34 167 201 89 22 111 Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 22
The reduction in trips, caused by the reduction in commercial areas, is offset by the increase in traffic, caused by the new residential units. This leads to a small net increase in the traffic generated by the site. This methodology assumes that the mode share of the existing commercial traffic remains relatively unchanged, whereas it is likely that the mode share for the traffic currently accessing the site will shift in the future and will result in an overall net reduction in auto trips generated by the subject site. As a conservative estimate the values in Table 26 have been used for the operational analysis. 4.3. VEHICLE TRAFFIC DISTRIBUTION AND ASSIGNMENT To determine how the projected traffic generated by the site would impact the site accesses and Study Area Road Network, a trip distribution and assignment exercise has been completed. Several resources were drawn upon to determine a suitable trip distribution for the proposed site, including the 2011 NCR Household Origin Destination Survey, the existing access volume splits, and local knowledge of the area beyond the Study Area. Table 27 below summarizes the distribution based on the O-D Survey. Table 27: Mode Share Direction % Distribution North 35% South 25% East 15% West 25% Using the above distribution, along with the access location and site location relative to major transportation infrastructure, the trip assignment was developed for Phase 1 and the 50%/100% Full build-out scenarios. Additionally, the townhouse units are expected to have direct access to Othello Avenue, and were distributed accordingly. Figure 11, Figure 12, and Figure 13 illustrate the percent assignment. The percent assignment for 50%/100% scenarios have been broken into a north and south portion to better understand the northern and southern access points. Figure 14, Figure 15, and Figure 16 below illustrate the projected site generated traffic for the Phase 1, 50% build-out, and 100% build-out scenarios, respectively. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 23
Figure 11: Percent Traffic Assignment Phase 1 Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 24
Figure 12: Percent Traffic Assignment - 50%/100% Build-out - North Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 25
Figure 13: Percent Traffic Assignment 50%/100% Build-out - South Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 26
Figure 14: Phase 1 Site Generated Traffic Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 27
Figure 15: 50% Build-out Site Generated Traffic Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 28
Figure 16: 100% Build-out Site Generated Traffic Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 29
5. FUTURE TRAFFIC OPERATIONS 5.1. 2025 FUTURE BACKGROUND CONDITIONS Figure 17 illustrates the 2025 background traffic volumes, with the addition of 1% / annum background growth, applied along the Arterial Roads to account for traffic growth outside of the Study Area. Figure 17: Future Background (2025) Traffic Volumes Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 30
Table 28, below, summarizes the projected operational analysis for 2025 future background conditions. Detailed Synchro outputs for 2025 future background conditions are included in Appendix E. Table 28: Operational Analysis 2025 Future Background Conditions Weekday AM Peak (PM Peak) Intersection Critical Movement Intersection LoS max. v/c or avg. delay (s) Movement Delay (s) LoS v/c Othello/Russell/Smyth (TCS) D(D) 0.87(0.85) NBT(NBT) 27.9(48.3) B(C) 0.62(0.75) St. Laurent/Smyth/Lancaster E(F) 0.93(1.25) EBL(NBT) 48.2(92.6) D(F) 0.88(1.14) (TCS) Russell/St. Laurent (TCS) C(C) 0.78(0.80) EBL(SBR) 16.3(19.3) B(C) 0.69(0.79) St. Laurent/Transit Loop (TCS) E(A) 0.99(0.54) EBL(EBL) 28.8(8.5) A(A) 0.41(0.49) St. Laurent/Pleasant Park (TCS) B(D) 0.65(0.82) NBT(SBT) 11.9(17.2) B(C) 0.61(0.76) St. Laurent/Site (TWSC) C(C) 15.8(17.2) WB(WB) - - - Pleasant Park/Othello (AWSC) A(B) 9.1(10.5) EB(EB) - - - Othello/Hamlet/Site (TWSC) B(B) 11.6(14.5) EB(EB) - - - Russell/St. Laurent Towers (TWSC) C(D) 17.6(29.4) EB(EB) - - - Othello/Chapman (TWSC) B(C) 12.6(22.1) EB(WB) - - - Note: Analysis of signalized intersections assumes a PHF of 0.95 and a saturation flow rate of 1800 veh/h/lane. TWSC - Two Way Stop Control, with stop signs on the minor approach. Or stop control on a single leg of a T intersection AWSC All Way Stop Control TCS Traffic Control Signal With the addition of background traffic growth, the Study Area intersections continue to operate with good LOS and reasonable delays. Again, the intersection of St. Laurent / Smyth / Lancaster was shown to operate with high delays, and with capacity constraints in the PM peak hour. The signal timings were optimized to attempt to alleviate the capacity constraints. Due to space constraints, no physical upgrades were considered to address projected deficiencies. The unsignalized intersections continued to operate with reasonable delays and good LOS. 5.1.1. 2025 FUTURE BACKGROUND SCREENLINE ANALYSIS To determine the overall network capacity for this scenario, the screenline was analyzed for the 2025 Future Background conditions. Figure 18 below illustrates the screenline volumes. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 31
Figure 18: Future Background (2025) Screenline Analysis Table 29: Future Background (2025) Screenline Analysis Screenline Station # Lanes Capacity Russell Road 1 800 St. Laurent Boulevard 2 2000 Total 3 2800 Direction Peak Vehicles v/c Northbound AM 191 0.24 PM 191 0.24 Southbound AM 182 0.23 PM 283 0.35 Northbound AM 1443 0.72 PM 2234 1.12 Southbound AM 1563 0.78 PM 1287 0.64 Northbound AM 1634 0.58 PM 2425 0.87 Southbound AM 1745 0.62 PM 1570 0.56 Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 32
As shown above the screenline, with the addition of background growth, is operating with an overall maximum v/c ratio of 0.87 and, therefore, there is residual capacity available to accommodate additional traffic growth / development. The Station at St. Laurent Road is exceeding capacity during the PM peak hour in the northbound direction. 5.2. 2025 TOTAL FUTURE CONDITIONS The total projected volumes associated with the proposed development were derived by superimposing the new sitegenerated traffic volumes associated with the Phase 1 development (Figure 14) onto the projected background traffic volumes (Figure 17). The resulting total projected volumes for the 2025 horizon year are illustrated in Figure 19. Figure 19: Total Projected (2025) Traffic Volumes Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 33
As part of the development, a roundabout is proposed at the intersection of St. Laurent and the site access / transit loop. This will reconfigure the access location and allow two-way traffic along the road adjacent to the site. For comparison, the site access has also been examined using the existing configuration. As well, the southwest access is currently offset with Chapman Boulevard. This access location has also been examined considering a realignment of the access to meet Chapman Boulevard at a single intersection. Table 30 summarizes the projected operational analysis of the Study Area intersections, with and without the proposed changes. Synchro and Sidra output sheets for 2025 projected conditions are included in Appendix F. Table 30: Operational Analysis Total Projected (2025) Conditions Weekday AM Peak (PM Peak) Intersection Critical Movement Intersection LoS max. v/c or avg. delay (s) Movement Delay (s) LoS v/c Othello/Russell/Smyth (TCS) D(D) 0.88(0.84) NBT(SBT) 30.6(46.3) B(B) 0.64(0.69) St. Laurent/Smyth/Lancaster E(F) 0.95(1.07) SBT(NBT) 47.9(60.6) D(E) 0.89(0.99) (TCS) Russell/St. Laurent (TCS) C(C) 0.78(0.73) EBL(EBL) 15.8(16.5) B(C) 0.69(0.73) St. Laurent/Transit Loop (TCS) A(A) 0.32(0.53) EBL(EBL) 7.7(8.0) A(A) 0.28(0.45) St. Laurent/Transit Loop (Roundabout) B(B) 11.7(13.8) SBL(SBL) 4.3(5.2) - - St. Laurent/Pleasant Park (TCS) B(C) 0.65(0.71) NBT(SBT) 10.6(13.3) B(B) 0.61(0.64) St. Laurent/Site (Realigned Chapman) (TWSC) C(C) 15.8(17.2) WB(WB) - - - St. Laurent/Site (TWSC) C(E) 16.6(35.4) WB(EB) - - - Pleasant Park/Othello (AWSC) A(B) 9.1(10.5) EB(EB) - - - Othello/Hamlet/Site (TWSC) B(B) 11.6(14.5) EB(EB) - - - Russell/St. Laurent Towers (TWSC) C(D) 17.6(29.4) EB(EB) - - - Othello/Chapman (TWSC) (Realigned Chapman) B(C) 12.6(22.3) EB(WB) - - - Othello/Site (TWSC) A(B) 9.7(11.5) WB(WB) - - - Othello/ Chapman (TWSC) B(C) 12.6(22.1) EB(WB) - - - Note: Analysis of signalized intersections assumes a PHF of 0.95 and a saturation flow rate of 1800 veh/h/lane. TWSC - Two Way Stop Control, with stop signs on the minor approach. Or stop control on a single leg of a T intersection AWSC All Way Stop Control TCS Traffic Control Signal With the addition of the Phase 1 site traffic, operations are generally like the 2025 future background operations. Small improvements were found at St. Laurent / Smyth / Lancaster by optimizing the signal timing, but the operations were generally like the future background conditions. The site traffic will have a minimal impact on the Study Area road network, and the site accesses will operate well. The ST. Laurent Boulevard / Transit Loop was examined with both a Traffic Control Signals (TCS) and roundabout intersection controls. The intersection was shown to operate well with either configuration. The Othello Avenue / Chapman Boulevard intersection was examined with the site access realigned to meet at a single point of intersection. The operations were very similar in both cases. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 34
5.2.1. 2025 TOTAL FUTURE SCREENLINE ANALYSIS To determine the overall network capacity for this scenario, the screenline was analyzed for the 2025 Total Future conditions.. Figure 20 below illustrates the screenline volumes. Figure 20: Total Future (2025) Screenline Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 35
Table 31: Total Future (2025) Screenline Analysis Screenline Station # Lanes Capacity Russell Road 1 800 St. Laurent Boulevard 2 2000 Total 3 2800 Direction Peak Vehicles v/c Northbound AM 193 0.24 PM 193 0.24 Southbound AM 183 0.23 PM 285 0.36 Northbound AM 1451 0.73 PM 2240 1.12 Southbound AM 1565 0.78 PM 1294 0.65 Northbound AM 1644 0.59 PM 2433 0.87 Southbound AM 1748 0.62 PM 1579 0.56 As shown above the screenline, with the addition of site generated traffic, is operating with an overall maximum v/c ratio of 0.87 and, therefore, there is residual capacity available to accommodate additional traffic growth / development. The station at St. Laurent Road is exceeding capacity during the PM peak hour in the northbound direction. The addition of site traffic has a minimal impact on the overall operations of the road network. 5.3. 2031 FUTURE BACKGROUND CONDITIONS Figure 21 illustrates the 2031 background traffic volumes, with the addition of 1% / annum background growth, applied along the Arterial Roads to account for traffic growth outside of the Study Area. Table 32, below, summarizes the projected operational analysis for 2031 future background conditions. Detailed Synchro outputs for 2031 future background conditions are included in Appendix G. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 36
Figure 21: Future Background (2031) Traffic Volumes Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 37
Table 32: Operational Analysis Future Background (2031) Conditions Weekday AM Peak (PM Peak) Intersection Critical Movement Intersection LoS max. v/c or avg. delay (s) Movement Delay (s) LoS v/c Othello/Russell/Smyth (TCS) D(D) 0.88(0.87) NBT(NBT) 30.8(51.8) B(D) 0.66(0.81) St. Laurent / Smyth / Lancaster (TCS) F(F) 1.02(1.32) SBT(NBT) 55.3(110.4) E(F) 0.95(1.21) Russell/St. Laurent (TCS) D(D) 0.81(0.87) EBL(NBL) 16.7(21.6) C(C) 0.72(0.76) St. Laurent/Transit Loop (TCS) A(A) 0.32(0.54) EBL(EBL) 7.3(8.7) A(A) 0.29(0.52) St. Laurent/Pleasant Park (TCS) B(D) 0.69(0.88) NBT(SBT) 11.7(20.8) B(D) 0.65(0.82) St. Laurent/Site (TWSC) C(C) 16.3(18.2) WB(WB) - - - Pleasant Park/Othello (AWSC) A(B) 9.1(10.5) EB(WB) - - - Othello/Hamlet/Site (TWSC) B(B) 11.6(14.5) EB(EB) - - - Russell/St. Laurent Towers (TWSC) C(D) 17.6(29.7) EB(EB) - - - Othello/Chapman (TWSC) B(C) 12.6(22.1) EB(WB) - - - Note: Analysis of signalized intersections assumes a PHF of 0.95 and a saturation flow rate of 1800 veh/h/lane. TWSC - Two Way Stop Control, with stop signs on the minor approach. Or stop control on a single leg of a T intersection AWSC All Way Stop Control TCS Traffic Control Signal With the addition of background traffic growth, the Study Area intersections continue to operate with good LOS and reasonable delays. Again, the intersection of St. Laurent / Smyth / Lancaster was shown to operate with high delays, and with capacity constraints in the PM peak hour. The signal timings were optimized to attempt to alleviate the capacity constraints. Due to space constraints, no physical upgrades were considered to address projected deficiencies. The unsignalized intersections continued to operate with reasonable delays and good LOS. 5.3.1. 2031 FUTURE BACKGROUND SCREENLINE ANALYSIS To determine the overall network capacity, the screenline was analyzed for the 2031 Future Background conditions.. Figure 22 below illustrates the screenline volumes. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 38
Figure 22: Future Background (2031) Screenline Table 33: Future Background (2031) Screenline Analysis Screenline Station # Lanes Capacity Russell Road 1 800 St. Laurent Boulevard 2 2000 Total 3 2800 Direction Peak Vehicles v/c Northbound AM 196 0.25 PM 196 0.25 Southbound AM 189 0.24 PM 292 0.37 Northbound AM 1532 0.77 PM 2371 1.19 Southbound AM 1659 0.83 PM 1366 0.68 Northbound AM 1728 0.62 PM 2567 0.92 Southbound AM 1848 0.66 PM 1658 0.59 Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 39
As shown above the screenline, with the addition of background growth, is operating with an overall maximum v/c ratio of 0.92 and, therefore, there is residual capacity available to accommodate additional traffic growth / development. The Station at St. Laurent Road is exceeding capacity during the PM peak hour in the northbound direction. 5.4. 2031 TOTAL FUTURE CONDITIONS The total projected volumes associated with the proposed development were derived by superimposing the new sitegenerated traffic volumes associated with half of full build-out and the full build-out of the development (Figure 15 and Figure 16) onto the projected 2031 background traffic volumes (Figure 17). The resulting total projected volumes for the 2031 horizon year are illustrated in Figure 23, 50% build-out, and Figure 24, 100% build-out. Detailed Synchro and Sidra outputs for 2031 total future conditions are included in Appendix H. Figure 23:Total Future (2031) 50% Build-out Traffic Volumes 3 Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 40
Figure 24:Total Future (2031) 100% Build-out Traffic Volumes The Chapman Boulevard access has again been examined both with the realigned access and in the existing configuration. Currently the intersection of Russell Road / Othello Avenue at Smyth Road is offset by approximately 20m. To allow this intersection to operate safely, a split timing for the north and south legs has been implemented. By realigning this intersection, a standard phasing plan can be implemented, potentially improving operations at this intersection. Table 34 summarizes the 50% build-out projected operational analysis. Table 35 summarizes the full build-out projected operational analysis. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 41
Table 34: Operational Analysis Total Future (2031) 50% Build-out Traffic Volumes Conditions Weekday AM Peak (PM Peak) Intersection Critical Movement Intersection LoS max. v/c or avg. delay (s) Movement Delay (s) LoS v/c Othello/Russel/Smyth (TCS) B(C) 0.63(0.78) NBT(SBT) 20.5(31.1) A(B) 0.53(0.67) Othello/Russel/Smyth (Russel Realigned) (TCS) C(C) 0.77(0.77) NBT(NBT) 24.9(28.4) A(A) 0.52(0.59) St. Laurent / Smyth / Lancaster (TCS) E(F) 0.98(1.27) SBT(NBT) 47.9(98.5) D(F) 0.89(1.14) Russell/St. Laurent (TCS) C(D) 0.75(0.88) EBL(NBL) 14.0(19.5) B(C) 0.68(0.72) St. Laurent/Mall & Transit Loop (TCS) C(D) 0.71(0.90) WBL(WBL) 21.6(31.5) B(D) 0.63(0.81) St. Laurent/Mall & Transit Loop (Roundabout) B(B) 11.0(14.2) SBL(SBL) 4.4(5.3) - - St. Laurent/Pleasant Park (TCS) B(D) 0.67(0.85) NBT(SBT) 11.5(17.2) B(C) 0.63(0.79) St. Laurent/Site (Realigned Chapman) (TWSC) C(C) 16.7(13.5) WB(WB) - - - St. Laurent/Site (TWSC) C(E) 20.1(68.8) WB(EB) - - - Pleasant Park/Othello (AWSC) A(B) 9.2(10.5) EB(EB) - - - Othello/Hamlet/Site (TWSC) B(B) 11.7(14.8) EB(EB) - - - Russell/St. Laurent Towers (TWSC) C(D) 17.8(30.1) EB(EB) - - - Othello/Chapman/Site (Realigned Chapman) B(B) 12.7(22.1) EB(WB) - - - (TWSC) Othello/Site (TWSC) A(B) 9.7(11.6) WB(WB) - - - Chapman/Othello (TWSC) B(B) 9.6(10.3) EB(EB) - - - Note: Analysis of signalized intersections assumes a PHF of 0.95 and a saturation flow rate of 1800 veh/h/lane. TWSC - Two Way Stop Control, with stop signs on the minor approach. Or stop control on a single leg of a T intersection AWSC All Way Stop Control TCS Traffic Control Signal With the addition of 50% of the full build out site traffic, operations are generally similar to the 2031 future background operations. Small improvements were found at St. Laurent / Smyth / Lancaster by optimizing the signal timing. The site traffic will have a minimal impact on the Study Area road network, and the site accesses will operate well. The intersection of Othello Avenue / Russell Road at Smyth Road has an offset of approximately 20m between the north and south legs. To facilitate this operation a split phase signal timing plan is used. In the fullness of time this intersection will be realigned to have Russell Road and Othello Avenue meet at a single point of intersection. This change was shown to have a minimal impact on the operations with the realignment of Russell Road. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 42
Table 35: Operational Analysis Total Future (2031) 100% Build-out Traffic Volumes Conditions Weekday AM Peak (PM Peak) Intersection Critical Movement Intersection LoS max. v/c or avg. delay (s) Movement Delay (s) LoS v/c Othello/Russel/Smyth (TCS) B(C) 0.64(0.79) NBT(SBT) 23.5(27.8) A(A) 0.53(0.59) Othello/Russel/Smyth (Realigned Russel) (TCS) C(C) 0.78(0.77) NBT(NBT) 28.2(30.0) A(A) 0.52(0.60) St. Laurent / Smyth / Lancaster (TCS) E(F) 0.98(1.27) SBT(NBT) 48.1(94.7) D(F) 0.90(1.14) Russell/St. Laurent (TCS) C(D) 0.76(0.89) EBL(NBL) 14.2(19.3) B(C) 0.69(0.72) St. Laurent/Mall & Transit Loop (TCS) C(D) 0.73(0.90) WBL(WBL) 28.1(31.3) B(D) 0.65(0.81) St. Laurent/Transit Loop (Roundabout) B(B) 11.0(14.7) SBL(SBL) 4.6(5.3) - - St. Laurent/Pleasant Park (TCS) B(D) 0.67(0.85) NBT(SBT) 11.7(17.2) B(C) 0.63(0.79) St. Laurent/Site (Realigned Chapman) (TWSC) C(C) 16.7(23.5) WB(WB) - - - St. Laurent/Site (TWSC) C(E) 20.1(69.2) WB(EB) - - - Pleasant Park/Othello (AWSC) A(B) 9.2(10.6) EB(EB) - - - Othello/Hamlet/Site (TWSC) B(B) 11.8(14.9) EB(EB) - - - Russell/St. Laurent Towers (TWSC) C(D) 17.9(30.1) EB(EB) - - - Othello/Chapman/Site (TWSC) B(C) 12.8(22.7) EB(WB) - - - Othello/Site (TWSC) A(B) 9.8(11.6) WB(WB) - - - Chapman/Othello (TWSC) B(B) 9.7(10.3) EB(EB) - - - Note: Analysis of signalized intersections assumes a PHF of 0.95 and a saturation flow rate of 1800 veh/h/lane. TWSC - Two Way Stop Control, with stop signs on the minor approach. Or stop control on a single leg of a T intersection AWSC All Way Stop Control TCS Traffic Control Signal With the addition of 100% of the full build out site traffic, operations are generally similar to the 2031 future background operations. Small improvements were found at St. Laurent / Smyth / Lancaster by optimizing the signal timing. The site traffic will have a minimal impact on the Study Area road network, and the site accesses will operate well. The realignment of Russell Road was examined again under 100% buildout conditions, and similar results to the 50% buildout horizon were projected. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 43
5.4.1. 2031 TOTAL FUTURE SCREENLINE ANALYSIS To determine the overall network capacity, the screenline was analyzed for the 2031 Total Future conditions.. Figure 25 below illustrates the screenline volumes. Figure 25: Total Future (2031) Screenline Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 44
Table 36: Total Future (2031) 50% Build-out Screenline Analysis Screenline Station # Lanes Capacity Russell Road 1 800 St. Laurent Boulevard 2 2000 Total 3 2800 Direction Peak Vehicles v/c Northbound AM 200 0.25 PM 198 0.25 Southbound AM 190 0.24 PM 295 0.37 Northbound AM 1555 0.78 PM 2384 1.19 Southbound AM 1664 0.83 PM 1383 0.69 Northbound AM 1755 0.63 PM 2582 0.92 Southbound AM 1854 0.66 PM 1678 0.60 As shown above the screenline, with the addition of site generated traffic from the 50% build out horizon, is operating with an overall maximum v/c ratio of 0.92 and, therefore, there is residual capacity available to accommodate additional traffic growth / development. The Station at St. Laurent Road is exceeding capacity during the PM peak hour in the northbound direction. The addition of site traffic has a minimal impact on the overall operations of the road network. Figure 26 below illustrates the screenline volumes. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 45
Figure 26: 2031 Total Future (2031) 100% Build-out Screenline Screenline Station # Lanes Capacity Russell Road 1 800 St. Laurent Boulevard Table 37: Total Future (2031) 100% Build-out Screenline Analysis 2 2000 Direction Peak Vehicles v/c Northbound Southbound Northbound Southbound AM 204 0.26 PM 197 0.25 AM 191 0.24 PM 297 0.37 AM 1582 0.79 PM 2381 1.19 AM 1669 0.83 PM 1390 0.70 AM 1786 0.64 Northbound PM 2578 0.92 Total 3 2800 AM 1860 0.66 Southbound PM 1687 0.60 As shown above the screenline, with the addition of site generated traffic from the 100% build out horizon, is operating with an overall maximum v/c ratio of 0.92 and, therefore, there is residual capacity available to accommodate additional traffic growth / development. The Station at St. Laurent Road is exceeding capacity during the PM peak hour in the northbound direction. The addition of site traffic has a minimal impact on the overall operations of the road network. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 46
6. PROJECTED MULTI-MODAL LEVEL OF SERVICE Based on the proposed design of the development and the surrounding road network, an MMLoS analysis of projected condition is provided herein. The intersections and road segments selected to be assess are listed below: Intersections Roadway Segments Smyth/Russell & Othello St. Laurent/Transit Access Transit Road Othello Avenue 6.1. SMYTH/RUSSELL & OTHELLO INTERSECTION The following figure shows the projected configuration for the Smyth/Russell & Othello intersection. As shown in the figure, Russell Road is planned to be re-aligned to form a more traditional four-legged intersection with Othello Avenue and Smyth Road. Figure 27: Proposed Smyth/Russell & Othello Intersection 6.1.1. PEDESTRIANS - PLOS The pedestrian level of service is based on the PETSI evaluation as shown in the following table. Notable changes from the existing condition are the introduction of the northbound and southbound left-turn lanes and the signal timing adjustments based on the realignment of Russell Road, including allowing right-turns on red along Smyth Road. In the ultimate scenario, a southbound left-turn lane is planned on Russell Road, which is included in the analysis below. To improve the level of service for pedestrians at this location the following modifications to the intersection are proposed: Prohibit right-turns on red for the north and southbound approaches; Provide an advanced pedestrian crossing signal along the east and west legs (crossing Smyth Road); Provide a bulb-out on the southeast corner of the intersection to reduce crossing distance; Provide raised crosswalk along the south leg; and Provide zebra striping along crosswalks. Based on these modifications, the resulting pedestrian level of service is projected to be PLoS D. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 47
Table 38: PETSI Evaluation Proposed Smyth/Othello & Russell Intersection 6.1.2. CYCLISTS - BLOS Bicycle level of service (BLoS) is similar to the existing conditions at this intersection, as minimal geometric changes are planned for the east and west legs (Smyth). As shown in the following table, the BLoS for the north and south legs (Othello and Russell) ranges from BLoS B to BLoS D because of the proposed northbound right-turn lane. However, the overall bike level of service is based on the worst case scenario and is BLoS F given the east and west legs of the intersection. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 48
Table 39: Projected BLoS Smyth/Othello & Russell 6.1.3. TRANSIT - TLOS The transit level of service (TLoS) at signalized intersections is based on the type of transit priority and the length of delay to busses (Exhibit 16 in the MMLoS Guidelines). As no transit priority is provided the TLoS is based on delays of approximately 20 to 28 seconds for general traffic (including busses) along Smyth Road. Based on this delay the transit level of service at the Smyth/Russell & Othello intersection is TLoS C as shown in the following table. This is increased from the existing condition of TLoS D because of the signal timing changes based on the realignment of Russell Road. Table 40: Projected TLoS Smyth/Russell & Othello Intersection 6.1.4. TRUCKS - TKLOS The signalized intersection truck level of service (TkLoS) is based on the number of lanes at the intersection and the effective corner radius. Based on the following table, the truck level of service at this intersection ranges from TkLoS D to F based on the small turn radii. The overall truck level of service is TkLoS F. Table 41: Projected TkLoS Smyth/Russell & Othello Intersection Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 49
6.2. ST. LAURENT/TRANSIT ACCESS INTERSECTION The following figure shows the proposed configuration for the St. Laurent/Transit Access intersection. As shown, a roundabout intersection is planned for this location with an additional intersection leg providing access/egress to/from the subject site. As intersection MMLoS analysis is based on signalized intersections, a qualitative analysis is provided herein instead of the more quantitative MMLoS guideline analysis. Figure 28: Proposed St. Laurent/Transit Intersection 6.2.1. PEDESTRIANS - PLOS The current plan for the roundabout at this location is to provide pedestrian crossover signage which provides pedestrians the right-of-way over vehicles. This will minimize the delay for pedestrians. In addition, median islands are provided on each leg of the roundabout, which reduces the crossing distance for pedestrians. Zebra striping at the crosswalks is shown on the proposed Site Plan, and shark teeth can be provided to increase visibility of the pedestrian crossings. As such, it can be assumed that a relatively high PLoS in the range of B to A should be assigned to this proposed roundabout. 6.2.2. CYCLISTS - BLOS Similar to the pedestrian assessment, cyclists will have minimal delay at roundabouts. They can either enter the roundabout as a vehicle, or dismount and cross the intersection as a pedestrian. As a vehicle, cyclists turning left would have to cross over one lane of traffic to proceed through the intersection in the inner lane. As such, the bike level of service would be BLoS B based on the following table for signalized intersections. Table 42: Projected BLoS St. Laurent/Transit Access Intersection Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 50
6.2.3. TRANSIT - TLOS The transit level of service (TLoS) at signalized intersections is based on the type of transit priority and the length of delay to busses (Exhibit 16 in the MMLoS Guidelines). As no transit priority is provided at this location, the TLoS is based on delays of approximately 15 seconds for general traffic (including busses). Based on this delay the transit level of service at the St. Laurent/Transit Access intersection is TLoS C as shown in the following table. Table 43: Projected TLoS St. Laurent/Transit Access Intersection 6.2.4. TRUCKS - TKLOS For signalized intersections, truck level of service (TkLoS) is based on the number of lanes at the intersection and the effective corner radius. Given the roundabout will be designed to accommodate the appropriate size of trucks, the TkLoS is assumed to be in the A to C range for this intersection, based on the following table. Table 44: Projected TkLoS St. Laurent/Transit Access Intersection 6.3. TRANSIT ROAD SEGMENT For the purpose of this proposed development, the road segment along the transit road directly adjacent to the east of the development is evaluated in terms of MMLoS. This segment is shown in the following figure. Figure 29: Proposed Transit Road Segment Features: 2 m sidewalks on both sides of the road No on-street parking No proposed cycling facilities Four-lane cross-section one bus lane and one general traffic lane in the southbound direction and two general traffic lanes in the northbound direction Assumed operating speed of 50 km/h Proposed Pedestrian crosswalk Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 51
6.3.1. Pedestrian PLOS Following the PLoS Segment Evaluation Table (Exhibit 4 in the MMLoS Guidelines), the following table summarizes the PLoS findings for this road segment. Table 45: Projected PLoS Transit Road Segment Road Segment Sidewalk Width (m) Boulevard Width (m) Traffic Volumes (AADT) On-street Parking Operating Speed (km/h) PLoS Transit Road 2.0 0 3,000 No 50 C As shown in above table, the projected pedestrian level of service is PLoS C along this segment of road. It is noteworthy that a proposed pedestrian crosswalk/crossover is planned to provide access to the development located east of the transit roadway. 6.3.2. CYCLISTS - BLOS The road segment BLoS is based on the type of cycling facilities provided along the roadway. As there is no cycling facility provided along this portion of road, the resulting bike level of service is BLoS E as shown in the following table. Table 46: Projected BLoS Transit Road Segment 6.3.3. TRANSIT - TLOS The final design of this roadway segment will be determined during the RMA stage of the development application. For this review, the southbound roadway assumes at least one transit only lane. The northbound roadway assumes one to two general vehicle travel lanes. As such, the transit level of service (TLoS) in the southbound direction is considered to be TLoS B given the transit lane with no driveways. In the northbound direction, private driveways along the roadway increase the friction for busses and results in a TLoS E, as shown in the following table. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 52
Table 47: Projected TLoS Transit Road Segment 6.3.4. TRUCK - TKLOS The roadway segment truck level of service (TkLoS) in the northbound direction is TKLoS A as there are two proposed travel lanes. In the southbound direction, one travel lane is designated for busses, and as such, truck would be able to drive in only one lane, resulting in a TkLoS C (depending on the exact width of the roadway). Table 48: Projected TkLoS Transit Road Segment 6.4. OTHELLO AVENUE ROAD SEGMENT For the purpose of this proposed development, a road segment along Othello Avenue is evaluated in terms of MMLoS. The segment south of Wingate Drive was selected which is shown in the following figure. Figure 30: Proposed Othello Avenue Road Segment Features: 2.0 m sidewalks on both sides of the roadway On-street parking on the west side only Two-lane cross-section 4m travel lanes with sharrows Proposed posted speed limit of 30 km/h Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 53
6.4.1. Pedestrian PLOS Following the PLoS Segment Evaluation Table (Exhibit 4 in the MMLoS Guidelines), the following table summarizes the PLoS findings for this road segment. Table 49: Projected PLoS Othello Avenue Road Segment Road Segment Sidewalk Width (m) Boulevard Width (m) Traffic Volumes (AADT) On-street Parking Operating Speed (km/h) PLoS Othello Ave. west side 2.0 3.5 3,000 Yes >30 or 50 A Othello Ave. east side 2.0 1.2 3,000 No >30 or 50 A As shown in above table, the projected pedestrian level of service is PLoS A for this segment of roadway. 6.4.2. CYCLISTS - BLOS The road segment BLoS is based on the type of cycling facilities provided along the roadway. In this case, there are prosposed sharrows along both sides of the Othello Avenue within the 4m lane widths, which results in BLoS A for the roadway segment as shown in the following table. Table 50: Projected BLoS Othello Avenue Road Segment 6.4.3. TRANSIT - TLOS As there is no transit service provided along this roadway, transit level of service (TLoS) is not included. 6.4.4. TRUCK - TKLOS As mentioned previously, truck access to Othello Avenue is required for the proposed retail developments. The roadway segment truck level of service (TkLoS) is TkLoS B based on the following table. Table 51: Projected TkLoS Othello Avenue Road Segment Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 54
6.5. SUMMARY OF MMLOS The following table provides a summary of the existing and projected MMLoS evaluation. As part of the MMLoS Guidelines, MMLoS targets are provided given the location and designation of each roadway/intersection. These targets are listed in the following table based on the general urban area designation for this development. Table 52: MMLoS Evaluation Summary Existing and Projected Location Evaluation Existing MMLoS Projected MMLoS MMLoS Target Smyth/Othello & Russell Pedestrian PLoS F PLoS D PLoS C Intersection Bicyclist BLoS F BLoS F BLoS C - B Transit TLoS D TLoS C No target Truck TkLoS F TkLoS F TkLoS D no target Vehicle LoS D LoS C LoS D St. Laurent/Transit & Site Intersection Transit Road Road Segment Othello Avenue Road Segment Pedestrian PLoS F PLoS B A PLoS C Bicyclist BLoS F BLoS B BLoS B Transit TLoS C TLoS C TLoS C no target Truck TkLoS C TkLoS C No target Vehicle LoS A LoS B LoS D Pedestrian PLoS C PLoS C PLoS C Bicyclist BLoS D BLoS E BLoS B Transit TLoS E TLoS E TLoS C no target Truck TkLoS B TkLoS C No target Vehicle n/a n/a n/a Pedestrian PLoS F PLoS A PLoS C Bicyclist BLoS B BLoS A BLoS B Transit n/a n/a No target Truck TkLoS C TkLoS B No target Vehicle n/a n/a n/a Some improvements to the MMLoS are projected as part of the proposed development. However, not all target MMLoS s were achieved for all modes. It is not practical to meet every target; however, key areas have been addressed to improve the MMLoS at the most critical locations. The following sections discuss these improvements further. 7. TRANSPORTATION PLAN RECOMMENDATIONS 7.1. TRANSIT STATION AND PRIORITY MEASURES Excellent transit service must be provided to enable the planned development to proceed and achieve the overall transportation sustainability goals documented in this CTS. As such, due consideration has been given to the transit station design and priority measures maximize the potential of achieving this goal. The demonstration plan illustrates the proposed transit station. OCTranspo provided these design requirements which include a 50 metre layby, northbound and southbound stops which accommodate storage for two buses, and the southbound outside lane dedicated for buses. OCTranspo also requested that Transit Priority Measures be examined at two locations within the Study Area, one at the north end of the Transit loop at St. Laurent, and the intersection of St. Laurent and Russell Road. These signals would be coordinated with the intersection of St. Laurent Boulevard at Smyth Road / Lancaster Road. The Transit Priority movements are shown in Figure 31. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 55
Figure 31: Transit Priority Measures Route As shown above TPM would be required to facilitate an eastbound left at the north end of the transit loop, and a northbound left turn at Russell Road and St. Laurent Boulevard. At the north end of the Transit Loop a left turn lane was added to show the bus operations. At the Russell Road and St. Laurent Boulevard intersection a left turn lane is already present. It was assumed that the transit priority would require an additional transit only lane. Synchro does not allow left turns to be assigned to separate phases. To simulate a transit priority phase in the signal timing an extended all red phase was added to reflect time where only the buses would be able to proceed. The signals were modeled in Synchro and Simtraffic using the 2031 100% build out projected traffic volumes. The results of this analysis are summarized in Table 53 below, along with the operational results without the inclusion of the TPM route for comparison. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 56
Intersection St. Laurent & Smyth/ Lancaster Signalized St. Laurent & North end of Transit Loop Signalized St. Laurent & Russell Signalized Approach / Movement Table 53: Transit Priority Measures Operational Analysis LOS 1 AM Peak Hour V/C Delay (s) Queue (m) 2 LOS 1 PM Peak Hour V/C Delay (s) Queue (m) 2 L E 0.92 75 67 F 1.14 130 60 EB T A 0.32 36 43 E 0.96 72 73 R A 0.12 34 29 A 0.17 32 11 L A 0.37 57 35 C 0.76 71 41 WB T B 0.61 46 67 A 0.27 41 52 R A 0.05 40 4 A 0.18 40 35 L C 0.71 50 53 D 0.84 72 45 NB T E 0.92 42 82 F 1.27 161 78 R D 0.90 47 32 A 0.14 27 35 L D 0.83 68 146 D 0.88 87 121 SB T F 1.03 67 182 E 0.95 52 189 R A 0.07 22 129 A 0.06 24 125 Overall D 0.90 53 - F 1.15 96 - Without Transit Priority Measures L E 0.92 75 65 F 1.14 130 64 EB T A 0.32 36 44 E 0.96 72 73 R A 0.12 34 27 A 0.17 32 22 L A 0.37 57 38 C 0.76 72 43 WB T B 0.61 46 72 A 0.27 41 77 R A 0.05 40 4 A 0.18 40 33 L C 0.71 53 54 D 0.84 74 52 NB T E 0.92 42 80 F 1.27 161 79 R D 0.90 48 34 A 0.14 23 36 L D 0.83 68 150 D 0.88 87 119 SB T F 1.03 67 191 E 0.95 52 195 R A 0.07 22 117 A 0.06 24 112 Overall D 0.90 54 - F 1.15 96 - EB L F 0.95 232 24 A 0.50 67 27 R A 0.01 57 <1 A 0.01 55 <1 NB T A 0.46 1 163 A 0.45 1 166 SB T/R A 0.56 7 27 A 0.51 6 50 Overall A 0.57 5 - A 0.51 4 - EB L/R C 0.80 37 160 D 0.87 42 157 NB L A 0.16 20 95 E 0.91 86 83 T A 0.52 25 150 A 0.39 24 105 SB T A 0.24 20 49 B 0.65 23 154 R A 0.37 54 34 B 0.67 159 130 Overall B 0.65 34 - E 0.89 67 - Without Transit Priority Measures EB L/R C 0.76 34 159 D 0.81 36 156 NB L A 0.13 15 87 B 0.68 40 88 T A 0.45 18 164 A 0.34 19 112 SB T A 0.21 11 46 A 0.57 13 172 R A 0.37 22 31 B 0.67 135 128 Overall A 0.59 24 - C 0.74 54-1- LOS based on v/c, as per the City of Ottawa TIA Guidelines 2- Queue This study primarily examined the operation implications of the TPM Route. While the TPM do have overall traffic limitations, they do assit with transit routing and access to the site and work towards meeting the needs of OCTranspo. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 57
7.2. ST. LAURENT ROUNDABOUT At the main access onto St. Laurent from the site, a roundabout has been considered in place of a traditional traffic control signal. Figure 32 illustrates the proposed roundabout intersection as well as the existing signalized intersection. The operational analysis of this intersection, discussed previously, has documented the operational analysis of the two potential traffic controls at this intersection. It was determined that the vehicle LOS would be similar with either the roundabout or the traffic control signals. MMLoS projected that the roundabout would significantly improve the pedestrian and cycling level of service at the main access to the site. In addition to operational considerations the evaluation of the operational implications, the roundabout would have significant cost implications. To ensure that this upgrade will be affordable for all parties, RIOCAN and the City of Ottawa will be seeking cost sharing opportunities for the roundabout. A high-level cost estimate for the construction of a roundabout has been developed using general geometry and overlaying it over aerial photography. Using this information, it is estimated that the roundabout would cost approximately $3.5M. Figure 32: Proposed Roundabout / Existing Signalized Intersection 7.3. OTHELLO ROAD COMPLETE STREET A closer examination of Othello Avenue has been undertaken to understand the potential as it is transformed into a complete street. It should be noted that no offsite improvements (e.g. roadway modifications) will be initiated by RIOCAN prior to the first phase of development. While the demonstration plan has been designed to emphasize St Laurent Boulevard as the primary car and truck access for the Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre and discourage the use of Othello Avenue, the redevelopment of Othello Avenue is an opportunity to transition between the new and established neighbourhoods. Additional details about the future Othello Avenue complete street are documented below to address existing problems and achieve the desired transportation network for the Elmvale Acres community. As an example, the offset Othello Avenue/Hamlet Road/Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre intersection will include islands preventing eastbound and westbound through traffic. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 58
The development of the complete street design concept for Othello Avenue was based on a compilation of community and City feedback during the secondary plan public consultation. Some of the key areas noted included: Low quality pedestrian facilities along Othello Low quality of pedestrian crossing locations/lack of intersection control for crossing Othello Offset intersection at Russell/Othello and Smyth Offset intersection at Othello and Hamlet/Elmvale Shopping Centre Access Cut through and speeding traffic on Othello and into the adjacent community Elmvale Shopping Center access required from Smyth The feedback provided key areas for the design team to focus on and improve the street scape and operation along Othello Avenue as the Elmvale Shopping Centre is redeveloped. Knowing the opportunities that were available, it was key to understand the constraints and limitations the corridor imposed on potential design solutions. The initial constraints noted for the corridor include: Hydro poles along the east side of Othello Avenue Mature trees along the west side of Othello Avenue Property restrictions surrounding the Smyth Road intersection The identified constraints have been considered during the ultimate design concept, with the aim of reducing the impacts while still achieving the desired outcome for the corridor. The Design Concept for Othello Avenue, is included on the demonstration plan. The complete street concept shifts the east curb line approximately 1.8m back to provide two 4.0m travel lanes with sharrows and a 2.5m parking lane. The west curb line will be maintained and a 2.0m sidewalk replaces the existing 1.2m asphalt pathway and is continuous from Smyth Road to Pleasant Park Drive. A 2.0m sidewalk will be provided along the east side of the roadway. The intersections at Hamlet Road, Wingate Drive and Chapman Boulevard will be narrowed with bulb-outs and raised to provide traffic calming along Othello Avenue, reducing the crossing distances for pedestrians and cyclists between the mall and neighbourhood. At the Smyth Road intersection, Russell Road will be re-aligned to standardize the intersection with Othello Avenue, and northbound and southbound left-turn lanes will be provided. The left-turn lanes and sidewalk will shift the curb line to the east, requiring the relocation of two or more hydro poles and requiring modifications to the signal plant at Smyth Road. 7.4. DEMONSTRATION PLAN CONSIDERATIONS Throughout the development of this CTS, the community has expressed concerns about existing cut-through traffic and how the redevelopment of the Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre, will potentially add to this issue. Below are three refinements that have been made to the plan, which mitigate the public s concerns. However, following the approval of the Secondary Plan it is recommended that the City undertake an Origin-Destination Survey and quantify the cut-through traffic demand. This survey will be used in future work to ensure that design elements of this plan properly address the cut-through traffic issue. 7.4.1. CHAPMAN BOULEVARD Residents along Chapman Boulevard have expressed concerns that realigning the site access with this roadway will promote cut-through traffic. A new traffic count was undertaken to ensure that accurate and current data was used to examine the peak hour traffic volumes along Chapman Boulevard. This count, documented in Figure 5, shows relatively low volumes on Chapman Boulevard, 34 trips per hour in the AM peak hour, and 46 trips per hour in the PM peak hour. This equates to less than one trip per minute in either direction during the peak hour. Given the internal road network and the number of homes served by Chapman Boulevard, and the adjacent local streets, this low volume is likely a combination of neighbourhood and cut-through traffic. However, to confirm this assumption the City of Ottawa should commission an Area Traffic Management Study specifically examining cut through traffic and origin-destination patterns in the Elmvale Acres Community. Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 59
In the original concept plan, the site access to St. Laurent Road, directly east of the Chapman Boulevard access, was proposed to have restricted turning movements. The proposed intersection configuration would limit the access to right in and right out only. This will significantly limit the potential for vehicle traffic to cut through the development, and therefore use Chapman Boulevard as an alternate to the Arterial and Collector Road network. However, this solution was presented to the community and through feedback it was determined that this measure does not alleviate their concerns. A revised plan has been created that uses the existing access, offset approximately 40m to the south of Chapman Boulevard. To understand the impact of the two potential configurations of Chapman Boulevard two concept plans have been prepared for the site. The two configurations are shown in Figure 33 and Figure 34. While this access configuration is less desirable from a transportation perspective, as it removes a pedestrian / cycling connection between the Elmvale community and the shopping centre it is being carried forward. Figure 33: Previously Proposed Site Access Configuration Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 60
Figure 34: Final Access Configuration 7.4.2. TRUCK LOADING Early drafts of the concept plan included the existing loading bay access location, which used Othello Avenue to provide truck access to the existing commercial development. Through communication with the City of Ottawa, community concerns with respect to truck access on Othello Avenue have been put forward. To address these comments, a truck loading bay access configuration that allows trucks to access the site from St. Laurent Boulevard has been explored. This option was determined to be feasible using AutoTurn WB-20 Truck Turning Templates. Figure 35 illustrates the WB-20 Turning Template. While this configuration Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 61
Figure 35: Truck Loading Bay WB-20 Turning Template 7.4.3. PARKING GARAGE ACCESS In addition to the previous concerns brought forward by the community, they also raised concerns regarding the addition of traffic from the new residential buildings onto the local road network via Othello Avenue. To alleviate this concern the accesses to the underground parking garage for Building B has been designed to direct traffic onto St. Laurent Boulevard, as shown on the Demonstration Plan. A splitter island has been included at the access to Building A, so that traffic arriving will be directed from St. Laurent Boulevard. Considering the needs and importance of the transit station, access to Buildings C and D will be on the site. The community raised their concerns that this might promote cut-through traffic. Islands at Hamlet have been included in the plan significantly reducing the cut-through potential. The site circulation and access configuration will be further refined and analyzed as part of the Site Plan Approval process, and the accompanying Transportation Impact Study. However, it is important to note at this stage that the site has been designed to encourage the residential traffic to use the Arterial Road system. To facilitate this the buildings have been placed on the site such that the accesses to St. Laurent Boulevard are the obvious routes for commuting and connecting to the City s Transportation Network. To further reinforce this, signage will be placed on site to discourage the use of Othello Avenue, Pleasant Park Road, or any part of the local road network. 7.5. TRANSPORTATION DEMAND MANAGEMENT Transportation Demand Management (TDM) strategies have the potential to be an integral part of a planned development to address and support the City s policies regarding TDM. For this site, the adjacent transit stations are considered very advantageous in lessening the reliance on the private automobile. This was also evident in the analyses conducted for the Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 62
forecasted conditions. The proximity of significant employment and residential uses will also contribute to a high pedestrian mode share. The proximity of dedicated on-road cycling facilities will also contribute to maximizing the bicycle mode split. As well, several other TDM measures could be considered to reduce vehicle use, including: Improving the quality and safety of pedestrian facilities, such as enhanced sidewalks/lighting Ride-sharing programs (e.g. community forum where residents can register/arrange carpooling or on-site parking can be reserved for VRTUCAR cars) Carpool incentives (e.g. reserved preferred parking for carpooling residents and carpool drop-off areas) Providing preferential parking for hybrid or electric vehicles Provide an on-site transit information booth to direct visitors and encourage residents to utilize transit Develop a program to encourage both residents and employees to have transit passes Additional shelter area for transit users On-site change room/shower facilities for any on-site staff TDM strategies are important in encouraging active modes of transportation to/from the site, further lessening the reliance on the private automobile. 8. CONCLUSIONS Based on the foregoing analysis of the proposed development, the following transportation-related conclusions are offered: The existing Study Area signalized intersections are generally operating with good overall LOS (LOS C or better), with the exception of the intersection of St. Laurent Boulevard at Smyth Road / Lancaster Road, which was shown to operate at LOS E during the PM peak hour. The signalized intersections were shown to operate with reasonable delays and acceptable LOS. No upgrades or mitigation measures were proposed to improve existing operations. A Multi-Modal Level of Service was undertaken to examine the existing level of service for all travel modes. Two intersections (Smyth/Russell & Othello and St. Laurent / Transit Access) and two roadway segments (Transit Road, and Othello Avenue) were examined in the MMLoS. The pedestrian, cycling, and truck LOS all provide poor LOS for those modes of travel. This is an opportunity to improve the MMLoS adjacent to the site. Background traffic due to growth beyond the Study Area was accounted for using a 1% background growth rate along the arterial roads in the Study Area. The intersection operational analysis of the Study Area intersections, including the additional traffic to account for background growth for the 2025 and 2031 horizon were with good LOS, again except for the St. Laurent Boulevard at Smyth Road / Lancaster Road intersection, which was shown to operate with overall LOS F. The proposed development is anticipated to change the travel characteristics of the Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre. The amount of commercial development will be reduced by 3,300 m 2, and 547 apartment units and 28 townhouse units, will be added to the property. Additionally, the changes to the site will facilitate a change in the modal share, with a significant increase in transit ridership. The site generated traffic was added to the future background traffic volumes to examine the impact of the subject development on the Study Area road network. The operational analysis of the total future conditions projected that the addition of site traffic has a very minimal impact on the Study Area intersections, and all the site accesses would operate with good LOS. A MMLoS was undertaken to examine how the proposed site and the associated modifications would impact the level of service for all travel modes. The following conclusions are made: Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 63
o o o Conversion of Othello Avenue to a Complete Street, this includes short term and long term configuration for the Hamlet intersection as well as maintaining a jog between the shopping centre access and Chapman Boulevard. The value of this work is estimated to be $3.5M. Conversion of the St. Laurent / Transit loop Signalized intersection to a Roundabout. The estimated cost of this improvement is $3.5M. Additional analysis, design, and costs may be required in order for this improvement to operate properly. Smyth Road / Othello Avenue / Russell Road was shown to improve with the realignment of Russell Road to meet Othello Avenue at a single intersection point as well as the pedestrian level of service improvements. The material cost of this work was estimated to be $1.2M (further research will be required to understand property costs, potential environmental remedy costs, etc.). The off-site improvements and future neighbourhood transportation studies (e.g. origin-destination studies to evaluate cut through traffic) represents a significant financial investment, that will yield significant benefits to the development and the City as a whole. The redevelopment of the Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre represents an opportunity for the City of Ottawa and RIOCAN to collaborate on major improvements, as previously noted. The Demonstration Plan for the redevelopment, as well as site specific issues (Chapman Boulevard, truck / loading location, parking garage operation), have been refined in order to develop good policies for the Secondary Plan. While the City, residents, and RIOCAN have all provided input and endorsement of this plan, it should be understood that issues such as truck access, pedestrian connectivity, parking, bicycle accommodation, and site circulation will be further analyzed and refined as part of future Site Plan Applications and Transportation Impact Studies. Based on the foregoing, the proposed development fits well into the context of the surrounding area, and its location and design serves to promote the use of walking, cycling, and transit modes, thus supporting City of Ottawa policies, goals, and objectives with respect to redevelopment, intensification, and modal share. Therefore, the proposed redevelopment of the Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre is recommended from a transportation perspective. Prepared By Reviewed By 12-05-17 12-05-17 Mark B. Crockford, P. Eng. Transportation Engineer Christopher A. Gordon, P. Eng. Senior Project Manager, Transportation Elmvale Acres Shopping Centre Redevelopment Community Transportation Study 64