Hospitality Outlook Asheville, NC Chad Church STR cchurch@str.com 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
Agenda: 1. United States Industry overview 2. Local Market update 3. Comparable Markets 4. Forecast 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
Total US - Key Statistics Twelve Month Moving Average December 2017 % Change Hotels 53 k Room Supply 1.9 bn 1.8% Room Demand 1.2 bn 2.7% Occupancy 65.9% 0.9% ADR $126.72 2.1% RevPAR $83.57 3.0% Room Revenue $156 bn 4.9%
Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 2000 to December 2017 10 8 Supply % Change Demand % Change Feb 11 7.8% 6 4 2 2.7 1.8 0-2 -4-6 Mar 02-4.7% Sept 09-7.1% -8 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Total United States Occupancy Twelve Month Moving Average 2000 to December 2017 70 65 June 06 63.6 65.9 60 55 Jan/Feb 10 54.5 50 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Total United States Average Daily Rate Twelve Month Moving Average 2000 to December 2017 135 125 126.72 115 105 Sept 08 107.70 95 85 June 01 85.75 75 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Chain Scales Occupancy / ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average December 2017 Occupancy ADR 2.7 2.0 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Total United States Under Contract Pipeline by Chain Scale In Thousands December 2017 In Construction 57.9 Final Planning 40.5 Planning 68.3 76.1 13.4 29 52.1 1.9 3.8 8.6 18 22.4 53.5 62.7 23.9 7.9 14.7 1 1.1 1.9 19.2 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
Agenda: 1. United States Industry overview 2. Local Market update 3. Comparable Markets 4. Forecast 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
Buncombe Co. Hotel Census As of December 2017 Properties (77) 15 21 11 13 5 7 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Independent Rooms (7,694) 1,175 1,437 1,529 762 1,116 1,153 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Independent
Development Activity 19 properties in the active pipeline Either in construction or planning stages Approx. 754 rooms slated for 2018 (~10% of current stock) Element by Westin Holiday Inn & Suites Arden Glo Hotel Best Western Hampton Inn & Suites Biltmore Area The Asheville Foundry Inn, Curio Collection by Hilton Arras The Parisian LaQuinta Inn & Suites
Buncombe County Performance Snapshot Key Performance Indicators Twelve Month Moving Average percentage change December 2015-2017 13.5 Occupancy ADR RevPAR 8.4 7.6 8.9 4.8 1.2 2.5 1.5 2015 2016 2017-1.1
Buncombe County Hotel Class Segments Occupancy/ADR/RevPAR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 2017 vs. 2016 Occupancy ADR RevPAR 2.9 1.6 3.2 0.9 2.2 2.0-0.2-1.2-2.3 Lux/Upper Up Upscale/Upper Mid Midscale/Econ
Buncombe County Performance Snapshot Key Performance Indicators Twelve Month Moving Average December 2017 vs. 2016-77 Hotels - 7,694 Rooms - 92.0% Rooms Sampled 2.5 $153.88 1.5 $112.23 72.9% -1.1 Occupancy ADR RevPAR
Buncombe County Room Nights Available Twelve Month Moving Average 2004-2017 2,800,000 2,700,000 2,600,000 Supply Growth +4.5% 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300,000 2,200,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Buncombe County Room Nights Available & Demand Twelve Month Moving Average 2004-2017 2,800,000 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 Supply Demand Prior Peak: Mar 2007 1.45m 1,000,000 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Demand +3.4%
Buncombe County Occupancy Rate by Month 2016 vs. 2017 2016 2017 78.7 70.0 68.7 74.2 74.3 75.7 81.7 80.7 84.6 83.6 77.4 78.1 78.2 79.6 84.8 83.0 72.6 74.3 71.3 69.8 56.9 57.4 52.3 46.6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Buncombe County Day of Week Occupancy Annual 2013-2016 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 85.4 81.9 69.3 67.3 86.9 88.2 86.5 84.8 83.3 82.5 74.6 73.2 74.1 71.6 72.5 72.4 70.9 71.0 70.5 66.2 66.6 66.0 65.5 62.1 59.2 54.6 57.3 58.4 2014 2015 2016 2017
Buncombe County Average Daily Rate (ADR) by Month 2016 vs. 2017 150 144 144 145 2016 2017 163 163 156 150 156 154 164 157 189 188 164 157 169 162 111 110 118 115 126 120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Buncombe County Occupancy & Average Daily Rate % Change by Month 2017 0.9 2.2 1.0 4.8 0.1 1.8 3.7 3.8 0.3 1.9 0.8 1.8 4.3 4.0 4.2 2.3 2.1-1.9-1.2-1.3-0.6-2.2-5.7 Occupancy ADR -10.8 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
STR and AirDNA Definitions STR Room Demand The number of hotel rooms sold in a specified time period (excluding complimentary rooms) as tracked by STR. Hotel Comparable Studio and one bedroom entire place rentals. AirDNA believes these are the type of listings most likely to compete directly with hotels. Other Types AirDNA entire place room nights less hotel comparable room nights. This would include 2+ bedroom rentals.
Buncombe County Room Nights Demand Airdna & STR Monthly 2015-2017 320,000 Hotel Comparable Other Types STR - Hotel Total 280,000 240,000 74% 200,000 160,000 94% 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 4% 2% 2015 2016 2017 Source: Airdna & STR 19% 7%
Buncombe County Room Nights Demand Airdna & STR Monthly 2015-2017 320,000 280,000 Hotel Comparable STR - Hotel Total 240,000 200,000 160,000 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 98% 2% 2015 2016 2017 91% 9% Source: Airdna & STR
Airdna Hotel Comparable Room Nights Booked Monthly - 2017 14,655 12,018 11,698 11,867 12,205 7,090 8,258 9,165 10,186 4,554 4,748 147 170 229 275 296 340 388 377 396 473 407 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source: Airdna
Airdna Hotel Comparable Rooms vs. STR Occupancy Monthly - 2017 Airdna STR 83.6 80.7 83.0 74.2 75.7 78.1 79.6 74.3 68.7 67.7 65.5 62.5 59.3 61.8 60.9 57.4 55.1 57.4 56.0 46.6 42.2 36.6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source: Airdna & STR
Total Occupancy (AirDNA Hotel Comparable and STR) Monthly - 2017 67.9 73.3 74.4 79.4 82.4 76.8 78.2 81.4 72.6 56.6 46.1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source: AirDNA & STR
Airdna Hotel Comparable vs. STR ADR Monthly - 2017 Airdna STR 113 118 126 115 120 111 163 164 156 156 150 144 121 121 120 121 119 121 188 127 125 164 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source: Airdna & STR
Airdna Hotel Comparable vs. STR ADR % Change Monthly vs. Last Year - 2017 9.4 Airdna STR 6.0 2.2 2.5 2.2 0.9 4.8 3.5 0.1 4.9 3.7 3.8 1.4 0.3 2.5 2.4 1.9 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.0-0.6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source: Airdna & STR
Agenda: 1. United States Industry overview 2. Local Market update 3. Comparable Markets 4. Forecast 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
Comparable Markets Supply % Change Total Year 2015-2017 4.4 4.5 2015 2016 2017 4.1 4.9 1.7 2.0 2.5 1.5 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 Buncombe Savannah Charleston Greenville Chattanooga -0.4
Pipeline Current Supply / New Supply 2018-2019 Market/Submarket 2015 % Growth 2017 % Growth 2019 Charleston, SC 18,957 7.5% 20,383 15.2% 23,484 Savannah, GA 14,979 3.5% 15,507 14.6% 17,769 Austin CBD, TX 8,704 11.5% 9,705 21.1% 11,752 Buncombe County, NC 6,966 10.5% 7,694 19.6% 9,205 Cary/South Raleigh, NC 4,966 9.9% 5,459 10.5% 6,034 Brentwood/Franklin, TN 4,787 6.9% 5,116 23.0% 6,294 Mount Pleasant/Isle Of Palms, SC 2,907 17.5% 3,416 26.4% 4,318
Supply % Change 2017 vs. 2015 All United States Submarkets 45.0% 35.0% 25.0% 15.0% Asheville 10.6% 599 of 643 5.0% -5.0% -15.0%
Comparable Markets Demand % Change Total Year 2015-2017 2015 2016 2017 10.7 5.2 5.6 5.2 6.5 3.4 3.3 2.2 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.4 0.3 Buncombe Savannah Charleston Greenville Chattanooga
Comparable Markets Absolute Occupancy Total Year 2015-2017 2015 2016 2017 72.8 73.7 72.9 71.8 70.8 71.0 73.5 74.6 75.3 72.1 73.1 74.7 65.3 65.4 66.9 Buncombe Savannah Charleston Greenville Chattanooga
Comparable Markets Absolute ADR Total Year 2015-2017 $153.88 $150.07 $139.43 2015 2016 2017 $141.44 $136.80 $132.23 $116.40 $114.86 $109.95 $101.67 $98.25 $92.01 $93.56 $89.48 $84.88 Buncombe Savannah Charleston Greenville Chattanooga
Comparable Markets ADR % Change Total Year 2015-2017 2015 2016 2017 8.4 7.6 8.8 9.7 6.8 2.5 4.5 5.2 3.5 3.4 3.5 5.6 5.4 4.6 1.3 Buncombe Savannah Charleston Greenville Chattanooga
Comparable Markets Weekday Occupancy Total Year 2016-2017 2016 2017 68.5 68.3 67.1 67.4 71.7 73.2 72.7 74.2 60.9 62.6 Buncombe Savannah Charleston Greenville Chattanooga
Comparable Markets Weekday Occupancy Total Year 2016-2017 86.5 84.5 2016 2017 80.0 80.1 81.5 80.7 74.2 76.0 76.5 77.6 Buncombe Savannah Charleston Greenville Chattanooga
Agenda: 1. United States Industry overview 2. Local Market update 3. Comparable Markets 4. Forecast 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2017F 2018F Outlook 2017 Forecast 2018 Forecast Supply 2.0% 2.2% Demand 1.7% 2.0% Occupancy -0.3% -0.2% ADR 2.8% 2.8% RevPAR 2.5% 2.6%
Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2017F by Chain Scale 2017 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (% chg) Luxury -0.4% 2.5% 2.1% Upper Upscale -0.2% 2.5% 2.3% Upscale -1.1% 2.5% 1.3% Upper Midscale -0.7% 2.3% 1.6% Midscale 0.1% 2.4% 2.5% Economy 0.0% 2.7% 2.7% Independent -0.3% 3.0% 2.7% Total United States -0.3% 2.8% 2.5%
Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2018F by Chain Scale 2018 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (% chg) Luxury -0.2% 3.0% 2.8% Upper Upscale -0.1% 2.8% 2.7% Upscale -0.7% 2.5% 1.7% Upper Midscale -0.6% 2.5% 1.9% Midscale -0.2% 2.5% 2.2% Economy -0.1% 2.3% 2.3% Independent -0.2% 2.8% 2.7% Total United States -0.2% 2.8% 2.6%