Austroads National Risk Assessment Model (ANRAM) Chris Jurewicz, ARRB
Overview Context What is ANRAM? How it is used? Severe crash risk estimation ANRAM Toolkit Next steps 2
Context Diminishing blackspots Only a third of fatal crashes occur at blackspots Casualty crashes scattered on rural and LGA roads Blackspot treatments alone cannot reach strategy goals Emerging need for proactive approach Crash risk assessment since the late 1980s (e.g. RSAs) Austroads >10 year investment in research Confidence in identification of crash risk National Road Safety Strategy 2011-20, First Actions 3
What is ANRAM? Australian National Risk Assessment Model A consistent method for the whole country Based on Australian crash data, speeds & traffic For all jurisdictions, state and local government Fatal and serious injury crash focus, proactive & reactive. Outcome of a 4-year Austroads research project Collaboration with irap 4
Uses of ANRAM Identify FSI crash risk across the road network Prioritise routes and road sections Target priority crash types, e.g. intersection Develop treatments and programs Measure progress towards Safe System infrastructure 5
Severe crash risk estimation Run-off-road Head-on Intersection Pedestrian Other 6
FSI crash risk analysis ANRAM Toolkit
FSI crash risk analysis ANRAM Toolkit ANRAM FSI Predicted FSI Observed FSI
FSI crash risk analysis ANRAM Toolkit Estimate FSI crash reductions from treatments Create road improvement treatment programs Estimate BCRs Section, route, network, state- and nation-wide programs 9
Next steps Trials by jurisdictions feedback and refinement Nationwide implementation Incorporation into AusRAP/ViDA tools Funding programs based on risk assessment Direction of development to be coordinated by ANRAM Steering Group and Technical Working Group
Thank you Chris Jurewicz ARRB chris.jurewicz@arrb.com.au 11
12
Strategic Approach NZ example Recognises roles of different approaches, e.g. big projects vs. mass action treatment plans Importance of Safety Maintenance and safety gains through asset management and technology improvements ANRAM quantifies benefits for all approaches 13
Road attributes Observed FSI crashes Crash type Run-off-road Head-on Intersection Pedestrian Other SRS Network average SRS = WF x f(aadt, L) = Predicted FSI crashes EB ANRAM FSI crashes 14
Severe crash risk prediction 15
16 The risk algorithm Divided into crash types: - Run-off-road Run-off-road SRS - Head-on - Intersection - Pedestrian - Other Star Rating Score (SRS) SRS - Run-off LOC Driver-side SRS - Run-off LOC Passenger-side Lane w idth Curvature Run-off-road SRS Quality of curve Delineation Shoulder rumble strips Road condition Grade SRS - Run-off LOC Driver-side SRS - Run-off LOC Passenger-side SRS - Head-on LOC Street lighting Sight distance Parking (side friction) Traffic calming Lane w idth Curvature Quality of curve Delineation Shoulder rumble strips Road condition Grade Roadside severity - driver-side offset Roadside severity - driver-side feature Paved shoulder w idth driver-side External flow influence - AADT per lane Traversability - median traversability Lane w idth Curvature Quality of curve Delineation Shoulder rumble strips Road condition Grade Roadside severity - passenger-side offset Roadside severity - passenger-side feature Paved shoulder w idth passenger-side External flow influence - AADT per lane Lane w idth Curvature Quality of curve Delinaeation Centreline rumble strips Road condition Head-on severity - median type External flow influence - AADT per lane Head-on SRS Traversability - median traversability Roadside severity - driver-side offset Grade ANRAM SRS SRS - Head-on Overtaking Differential speed limits Roadside severity - driver-side feature Number of lanes Head-on severity - median type Paved shoulder w idth driver-side Grade External flow influence - AADT per lane (opposing) Intersection type Intersection quality Grade Street lighting External flow influence SRS - Intersection - AADT per Skid resistance lane / grip Sight distance Traversability - median traversability Intersection SRS Chanellisation - splitter and median islands Speed management / traffic calming Intersection severity - intersection type External flow influence - intersecting road volume Access points SRS - Property Access Service road Access point - severity External flow influence - default flow Pedestrian SRS Refer to the next figure Other SRS = (Intersection SRS + Head-on SRS) / 2 Lane w idth Presence of user - along Pedestrian along provision - driver-side Curvature Curve quality Curvature Sight distance Lane w idth Delineation Grade SRS - Along driver-side Road condition Speed management / traffic calming Quality of curve Parking (side friction) inc. footpath driver-side Shoulder rumble strips Street lighting Pedestrian along provision - driver-side (severity) External flow influence - through vehicle flow per lane Delineation SRS - Along Presence of user - along Pedestrian along provision - passenger-side Curvature Curve quality Shoulder rumble strips Sight distance Lane w idth Delineation SRS - Along passenger-side Grade Road condition Speed management / traffic calming Road condition Parking (side friction) inc. footpath passenger-side Shoulder rumble strips Street lighting Pedestrian along provision - passenger-side (severity) External flow influence - through vehicle flow per lane Grade Roadside severity - passenger-side offset Presence of user - crossing Number of lanes Median type Pedestrian crossing facitlities - though road Pedestrian crossing quality - through road Intersection type Intersection quality Pedestrian SRS SRS - Crossing through road Pedestrian fencing (inc crossing) Street lighting Sight distance Parking (side friction) Traffic calming Pedestrian crossing facitlities - though road (severity) External flow influence - through vehicle flow per lane Roadside severity - passenger-side Presence of user - alongfeature Number of lanes (side road) Median type (side road) Pedestrian crossing facitlities - side road Pedestrian crossing quality - through road Paved shoulder w idth passenger-side Intersection type / access point SRS - Crossing side road Intersection quality Pedestrian fencing (inc. side road crossing) External flow influence - AADT per lane Pedestrian crossing facilities - side road (severity)
FSI crash risk analysis ANRAM Toolkit
Application of Safety Performance Functions ANRAM computational flow diagram High Predicted FSI Mean FSI SRS Weighting Factor > 1 Mean Predicted FSI SRS Weighting Factor ~ 1 Low Predicted FSI SRS Weighting Factor < 1
Who should use ANRAM? Road safety policy analysts and managers Funders of road safety Infrastructure program managers Regional and local government engineers Auto clubs, e.g. RACV 19