ONS 2013 mid-year population estimates

ONS 2013 mid-year population estimates June 2014 Key findings London s population is estimated to have grown by 108 thousand between mid-2012 and mid-2013 to reach 8.42 million usual residents. Annual births saw their biggest year-on-year drop since the 1970s, falling from 134 thousand to 131 thousand. International flows in and out of London fell to their lowest level for a number of years, but net international migration rose slightly on the previous year to 80 thousand. Domestic migration into London fell by seven thousand compared to the previous year, helping net domestic outflows reach their highest level since the financial crisis at 55 thousand over the year. Natural change accounted for 83 thousand of the overall population growth and migration for 24 thousand. Introduction On 26 th June 2013, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released their 2013 mid-year population estimates (MYE). This Intelligence Unit Update examines the results for London, comparing with results from recent rounds of ONS projections and the GLA s own 2013-round projections. Though superseded by the 2012-based projection, ONS s 2011-based interim projection is included for comparison because it underpins the Department of Communities and Local Government s current household projections. Note on accuracy When interpreting these results, the reader should be aware of the levels of accuracy of different aspects of the data. Data is released by ONS and replicated here at unit-level; however, this precision should not be mistaken for a declaration of accuracy to that level. Estimates of birth and death data are generally accurate and users can expect the estimates to closely represent actual occurrences. However, estimates of population numbers and migration flows are acknowledged to have historically deviated significantly from actuals and it is normal for multiple revisions to these data to take place over the years as improved evidence becomes available. Note on conventions Birth, death and migration data referred to throughout this report are always for periods between consecutive mid-years. However, to simplify the narrative, the data for, e.g., mid-2012 to mid-2013 will be referred to as 2013. GLA Intelligence 1

Total population Figure 1 shows London s projected and estimated population. London s population continued to grow strongly over the year, with the 2013 mid-year estimates giving a total population of 8,416,535; up over 108 thousand from the previous year. This estimated population was lower than that projected by current ONS and GLA projections. The most recent, 2012-based, ONS subnational population projection (SNPP) came closest to the estimate with a projected 2013 population of 8,418,289 (an increase of 110 thousand in the year). Both the 2011- based SNPP (8,459,567, 127 thousand) and GLA Central Trend (8,440,130, 111 thousand [starting from a modified 2011 base]) gave higher total population and growth over the year than shown in these estimates. Figure 1: Total population, London, 2011-2016 Population Millions 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based population projections; ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim); ONS subnational population projections 2012-based; ONS 2011 mid-year estimates; ONS 2012 mid-year estimates; ONS 2013 midyear estimates GLA Central ONS SNPP 2011 based (interim) ONS SNPP 2012 based MYE 2011 MYE 2012 MYE 2013 Population by local authority Table 1 compares the 2012 and 2013 MYE populations for each London local authority with results from several sets of projections: the GLA Central Trend and Capped Household Size SHLAA projections, and the 2011- and 2012-based SNPP. The table shows that 50 thousand of the total growth occurred in Inner London and 58 thousand in Outer London. Tower Hamlets saw the largest growth of any local authority, with an increase of almost ten thousand over the year. Hackney, Barnet, and Hillingdon all saw growth of over five thousand in the same period. Two boroughs, Hammersmith and Kensington and Chelsea, saw falls in population. GLA Intelligence 2

Table 1: Total population, local authority, 2012 and 2013 MYE 2012 MYE 2013 GLA Trendbased Central GLA Capped SHLAA 2013 ONS SNPP 2011-based ONS SNPP 2012-based Camden 224,962 229,719 228,398 226,696 231,149 228,255 Kensington & Chelsea 155,930 155,594 155,706 160,033 159,011 155,680 Westminster 223,858 226,841 226,597 225,860 230,302 226,946 City of London 7,604 7,648 7,993 7,993 8,614 7,849 Central 612,354 619,802 618,693 620,583 629,076 618,731 Hackney 252,119 257,379 256,623 255,980 251,923 255,707 Hammersmith & Fulham 179,850 178,685 181,002 186,376 182,995 179,693 Haringey 258,912 263,386 263,081 262,797 262,506 262,472 Islington 211,047 215,667 215,904 214,460 215,142 215,482 Lambeth 310,200 314,242 313,827 313,323 311,012 314,020 Lewisham 281,556 286,180 285,998 285,695 286,331 285,634 Newham 314,084 318,227 323,393 324,688 318,369 319,657 Southwark 293,530 298,464 298,442 299,304 303,859 297,955 Tower Hamlets 263,003 272,890 271,137 271,116 270,262 269,821 Wandsworth 308,312 310,516 311,835 315,704 315,171 311,072 Rest of Inner 2,672,613 2,715,636 2,721,243 2,729,444 2,717,570 2,711,512 Inner 3,284,967 3,335,438 3,339,936 3,350,026 3,346,646 3,330,243 Barking & Dagenham 190,560 194,352 195,562 196,449 196,094 194,434 Barnet 363,956 369,088 369,993 375,833 370,688 369,821 Bexley 234,271 236,687 236,533 235,392 237,794 236,276 Brent 314,660 317,264 320,197 319,187 316,607 317,166 Bromley 314,036 317,899 317,350 316,510 318,378 317,083 Croydon 368,886 372,752 373,088 373,088 371,005 372,709 Ealing 340,671 342,494 344,874 343,828 347,428 344,080 Enfield 317,287 320,524 322,426 319,083 324,773 321,956 Greenwich 260,068 264,008 262,779 268,530 258,689 262,960 Harrow 242,377 243,372 245,867 244,506 247,795 245,045 Havering 239,733 242,080 242,562 244,423 243,676 241,969 Hillingdon 281,756 286,806 287,540 284,803 285,286 286,406 Hounslow 259,052 262,407 264,269 260,851 264,371 263,447 Kingston upon Thames 163,906 166,793 166,410 165,027 169,331 166,811 Merton 202,225 203,223 205,444 204,005 210,344 204,864 Redbridge 284,617 288,272 289,849 287,386 293,541 289,755 Richmond upon Thames 189,145 191,365 191,345 190,107 193,512 191,551 Sutton 193,630 195,914 196,447 194,834 196,935 196,130 Waltham Forest 262,566 265,797 267,660 266,139 266,673 265,583 Outer 5,023,402 5,081,097 5,100,194 5,089,979 5,112,921 5,088,046 Total 8,308,369 8,416,535 8,440,130 8,440,005 8,459,567 8,418,289 Source: ONS 2012 and 2013 mid-year estimates; GLA trend-based Central variant population projections; GLA capped SHLAA population projections; ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim) and 2012-based GLA Intelligence 3

Births, deaths and natural change Births Figure 2 shows estimated and projected births in London. Both GLA and ONS projected the annual number of births to continue rising until at least 2016, reaching at least 139 thousand (GLA). However, the 2013 mid-year estimates show that the number of births fell to 131,011 from over 134 thousand the previous year. This is the largest year-on-year fall in London s annual births since the 1970s and a change in what has been an upward trend throughout the 2000s (bar a pause during 2008-09). Figure 2: Births, London, 2002-2021 150,000 140,000 Births 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 Past births GLA Central GLA Central updated fertility ONS SNPP 2011 based ONS SNPP 2012 based MYE 2013 Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based population projections; ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim); ONS subnational population projections 2012-based; ONS mid-year estimates Table 2 shows birth estimates by local authority for 2012 and 2013, as well as projected births for 2013 from GLA and ONS projections. 26 of the 33 authorities saw a reduction in births from the previous year, with the biggest falls occurring in Barnet (364), Camden (224), Wandsworth (209), and Newham (207). The only significant rises in births occurred in Tower Hamlets (95), Harrow (90), Barking and Dagenham (69), and Hackney (62). GLA Intelligence 4

Table 2: Births, local authority, 2012 and 2013 2012 2013 MYE 2012 MYE 2013 GLA Trendbased Central ONS SNPP 2011-based ONS SNPP 2012-based Camden 3085 2,861 2,971 3,150 3,165 Kensington & Chelsea 2064 1,909 1,977 2,517 2,143 Westminster 3008 2,832 2,973 2,820 3,010 City of London 56 71 54 63 82 Central 8,213 7,673 7,974 8,550 8,401 Hackney 4445 4,507 4,458 5,630 4,725 Hammersmith & Fulham 2716 2,599 2,626 3,331 2,750 Haringey 4190 4,150 4,160 5,001 4,302 Islington 2945 2,945 2,963 3,367 3,121 Lambeth 4833 4,645 4,797 5,744 5,105 Lewisham 4940 4,951 5,050 5,418 5,018 Newham 6467 6,260 6,545 7,889 6,567 Southwark 5028 4,908 5,100 5,668 5,256 Tower Hamlets 4710 4,805 4,823 5,119 4,829 Wandsworth 5478 5,269 5,490 5,831 5,630 Rest of Inner 45,752 45,039 46,012 52,996 47,303 Inner 53,965 52,712 53,987 61,545 55,703 Barking & Dagenham 3797 3,866 3,962 4,079 3,757 Barnet 5650 5,286 5,703 6,083 5,576 Bexley 3160 2,972 3,145 3,262 3,126 Brent 5312 5,170 5,431 6,493 5,240 Bromley 4139 3,981 4,138 4,164 4,104 Croydon 5790 5,747 6,017 6,220 5,592 Ealing 5727 5,687 5,823 6,518 5,683 Enfield 5017 4,966 5,094 5,801 5,115 Greenwich 4598 4,564 4,635 5,267 4,665 Harrow 3530 3,620 3,630 3,742 3,452 Havering 2933 2,926 2,966 3,019 2,884 Hillingdon 4459 4,390 4,609 4,545 4,429 Hounslow 4671 4,512 4,723 4,874 4,482 Kingston upon Thames 2306 2,213 2,338 2,323 2,346 Merton 3507 3,474 3,499 3,577 3,501 Redbridge 4769 4,706 4,917 4,791 4,553 Richmond upon Thames 2980 2,826 2,924 3,050 2,934 Sutton 2835 2,639 2,776 2,757 2,734 Waltham Forest 4892 4,754 4,934 5,738 4,813 Outer 80,072 78,299 81,263 86,304 78,985 Total 134,037 131,011 135,249 147,850 134,689 Source: ONS mid-year estimates 2012 and 2013; GLA trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS subnational populations projections 2011-based (interim) and 2012-based GLA Intelligence 5

Deaths Figure 3 shows estimated and projected annual deaths in London. The 2013 MYE showed the second consecutive rise in deaths after a long run of falling numbers, increasing to 48 thousand from 47 thousand in 2012. This rise was less than that projected by both current GLA and ONS projections. Figure 3: Deaths, London 2002-2021 60,000 58,000 56,000 54,000 52,000 Deaths 50,000 48,000 46,000 44,000 42,000 40,000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Past deaths GLA Central ONS SNPP 2011 based ONS SNPP 2012 based MYE 2013 Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based population projections; ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim); ONS subnational population projections 2012-based; ONS mid-year estimates GLA Intelligence 6

Natural change Natural change, the difference between births and deaths, saw a fall in London from 86 thousand in 2012 to 83 thousand in 2013, marking the end of a decade-long run of increases. This fall arises from the combination of a decrease in the number of births and an increase in deaths. Figure 4: Natural change, London, 2002-2021 110,000 100,000 90,000 atural change 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Past natural change GLA Central ONS SNPP 2011 based ONS SNPP 2012 based MYE 2013 Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based population projections; ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim); ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim) and 2012-based; ONS mid-year estimates GLA Intelligence 7

Migration International migration Estimated international migration, both to and from London, fell in comparison to the 2012 estimates. The number of in-migrants fell from 176 thousand to 170 thousand (Figure 5); a drop of over 6,300 and a level lower than that seen at any point in the last decade. Out-migrants (Figure 6) also fell, from over 107 thousand to 90 thousand; a drop of almost 17 thousand. This was the lowest estimated outflow since 2004. Net international migration (Figure 7) rose from 69 thousand in 2012 to 80 thousand in 2013. Figure 5: International in-migration flows, London, 2002-2016 Flow 230,000 220,000 210,000 200,000 190,000 180,000 170,000 160,000 150,000 140,000 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim) and 2012-based; ONS mid-year estimates Past ONS data GLA Central SNPP 2012 based SNPP 2011 based (interim) MYE 2013 GLA Intelligence 8

Figure 6: International out-migration flows, London, 2002-2016 140,000 130,000 120,000 Flow 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim) and 2012-based; ONS mid-year estimates Past ONS data GLA Central SNPP 2011 based (interim) SNPP 2012 based MYE 2013 GLA Intelligence 9

Figure 7: International net migration flows, London, 2002-2016 120,000 110,000 100,000 Net flow 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim) and 2012-based; ONS mid-year estimates Past ONS data GLA Central SNPP 2012 based MYE 2013 SNPP 2011 based (interim) Table 3 shows net international migration estimates by local authority for 2012 and 2013, as well as projected net flows for 2013 from GLA and ONS projections. This shows a small (250 person) fall in net inflow to Outer London and a large (11 thousand) rise in net inflow to Inner London. The biggest change in estimate from 2012 to 2013 was in Hammersmith & Fulham, where a 2,500 net outflow became a small inflow. Tower Hamlets and Westminster saw increases in net inflows of almost two thousand each. Greenwich, Hillingdon and Harrow saw the largest reductions of net inflows at 749, 666, and 541 respectively. GLA Intelligence 10

Table 3: Net international migration, local authority, 2012 and 2013 2012 2013 MYE 2012 MYE 2013 GLA Central ONS SNPP 2011 ONS SNPP 2012 Camden 5,185 4744 4,213 3,319 3,464 Kensington & Chelsea -1,311-170 -379-555 -821 Westminster 5,599 7546 3,204 1,841 2,445 City of London 210 193-37 274 217 Central 9,683 12,313 7,001 4,879 5,305 Hackney 1,420 2021 1,531 2,026 1,112 Hammersmith & Fulham -2,505 41-327 63-1,505 Haringey 3,972 4860 4,363 4,544 3,747 Islington 4,337 3848 3,675 3,067 3,150 Lambeth 2,695 3267 2,043 3,220 1,935 Lewisham 2,618 2407 2,193 2,902 2,053 Newham 6,829 7151 10,930 11,728 9,749 Southwark 3,279 3541 4,250 6,378 3,594 Tower Hamlets 5,026 7013 4,311 5,321 4,240 Wandsworth -1,594 102-436 1,247-1,093 Rest of Inner 26,077 34,251 32,534 40,497 26,982 Inner 35,760 46,564 39,536 45,376 32,287 Barking & Dagenham 1,571 1403 2,234 2,535 1,943 Barnet 3,905 3912 3,586 4,006 3,421 Bexley 499 516 729 806 679 Brent 2,874 4021 5,493 7,223 4,281 Bromley 480 348 532 710 504 Croydon 1,479 1141 1,672 2,064 1,708 Ealing 1,749 2383 2,868 4,396 2,556 Enfield 1,886 1933 2,796 3,150 2,548 Greenwich 2,567 1818 2,378 2,334 2,302 Harrow 1,694 1153 2,229 2,826 2,049 Havering 266 271 415 424 372 Hillingdon 3,499 2833 2,884 2,698 2,596 Hounslow 2,831 2994 3,649 4,506 3,546 Kingston upon Thames 2,138 1827 1,939 2,041 1,929 Merton 50 177 1,113 2,907 994 Redbridge 2,377 2049 2,053 2,392 2,420 Richmond upon Thames -226 139-37 80-144 Sutton 292 330 302 445 305 Waltham Forest 3,273 3706 3,683 4,046 2,976 Outer 33,204 32,954 40,518 49,588 36,984 Total 68,964 79,518 80,054 94,964 69,271 Source: ONS mid-year estimates 2012 and 2013; GLA trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS subnational populations projections 2011-based (interim) and 2012-based GLA Intelligence 11

Internal migration Out-migration from London to other parts of the UK (Figure 9) fell slightly, from 255 thousand in 2012 to 252 thousand in 2013; a drop of 3,500. This fall in outflows was more than matched by a larger reduction in domestic in-migration (Figure 8) over the same period, with flows falling from 107 thousand to 91 thousand. Net domestic outflows from London (Figure 10) rose from 51 thousand in 2012 to 55 thousand in 2013. Figure 8: Internal in-migration flows, London, 2002-2016 210,000 205,000 200,000 195,000 Internal flows 190,000 185,000 180,000 175,000 170,000 165,000 160,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Past ONS data GLA Central MYE 2013 Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS 2013 mid-year estimates; ONS internal migration flows (2002-2011) GLA Intelligence 12

Figure 9: Internal out-migration flows, London, 2002-2016 300,000 280,000 260,000 Internal flows 240,000 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Past ONS data GLA Central MYE 2013 Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS 2013 mid-year estimates; ONS internal migration flows (2002-2011) GLA Intelligence 13

Figure 10: Net internal migration, London, 2002-2016 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20,000 40,000 Net flow 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Past ONS data GLA Central SNPP 2012 based MYE 2013 SNPP 2011 based (interim) Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS 2013 mid-year estimates; ONS internal migration flows (2002-2011) Table 4 shows net internal migration estimates by local authority for 2012 and 2013, as well as projected net flows for 2013 from GLA and ONS projections. The biggest changes from 2012 were seen in Westminster and Lambeth which saw increases in net outflows of 3,136 and 2,017 respectively. Bexley saw an increase in net inflow of 1,109 and Kensington & Chelsea and Redbridge saw reductions in their net outflows of 980 and 869. GLA Intelligence 14

Table 4: Net internal migration, local authority, 2012 and 2013 2012 2013 ONS SNPP MYE 2012 MYE 2013 GLA Central 2011 ONS SNPP 2012 Camden -2298-1736 -2470-178 -2349 Kensington & Chelsea -2256-1276 -1082-956 -811 Westminster -3202-6338 -2212 1260-1417 City of London -38-193 51 282-3 Central -7,794-9,543-5713 408-4,579 Hackney 134-239 -880-4348 -1242 Hammersmith & Fulham -1862-2943 -547-2354 -699 Haringey -3621-3492 -3848-4910 -3337 Islington -1614-1126 -901-1239 -936 Lambeth -716-2733 -1268-4467 -2037 Lewisham -1445-1195 -1574-1905 -1335 Newham -8359-8007 -8686-14201 -9290 Southwark -2190-2253 -3424-3476 -3113 Tower Hamlets -1668-932 -897-2655 -1334 Wandsworth -1467-1624 -335-2064 -500 Rest of Inner -22,808-24,544-22361 -41,618-23,823 Inner -30,602-34,087-28074 -41,210-28,402 Barking & Dagenham -552-258 -384-818 -478 Barnet -834-1732 -713-1182 -736 Bexley -264 845 42 438 213 Brent -4191-4922 -4683-9983 -5428 Bromley 1467 2046 677 1683 1125 Croydon -754-624 -1081-2598 -893 Ealing -4201-4404 -2891-4997 -2908 Enfield -1620-1676 -940-1511 -905 Greenwich -1432-871 -2211-4238 -2403 Harrow -1902-2352 -1468-1342 -1301 Havering 785 1470 1279 1796 1333 Hillingdon 107-297 -498-478 -427 Hounslow -1943-2752 -2050-3137 -2121 Kingston upon Thames 21-53 -699 1031-277 Merton -674-1459 -803-554 -663 Redbridge -2182-1313 -122 716 36 Richmond upon Thames 252 496 324 1078 794 Sutton 739 756 838 1235 1001 Waltham Forest -3879-3840 -2960-4683 -3209 Outer -21,057-20,940-18,343-27,548-17,247 Total -51,659-55,027-46,418-68,758-45,649 Source: ONS mid-year estimates 2012 and 2013; GLA trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS subnational populations projections 2011-based (interim) and 2012-based GLA Intelligence 15

Total net migration and churn Total net migration (Figure 11) rose slightly on the 2012 figure, up to 24 thousand from 17 thousand, but remains significantly lower than the recent highs seen since the financial crisis. Total migration churn (Figure 12, the sum of in and out gross flows) stood at 709 thousand for the year, the lowest level seen since 2002 and down ten percent on the high point of 2007. Figure 11: Total net migration, London, 2002-2016 80,000 60,000 40,000 Net flow 20,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20,000 40,000 Past ONS data GLA Central SNPP 2012 based MYE 2013 SNPP 2011 based (interim) Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS mid-year estimates; ONS internal migration flows (2002-2011) GLA Intelligence 16

Figure 12: Migration churn, London, 2002-2013 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 Migration churn 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Domestic churn International churn Total churn ONS mid-year estimates; ONS internal migration flows (2002-2011) GLA Intelligence 17

Glossary Central London Consists of four authorities: Camden, Kensington & Chelsea, Westminster, and the City of London. Rest of Inner London Consists of ten authorities: Hackney, Hammersmith & Fulham, Haringey, Islington, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham, Southwark, Tower Hamlets and Wandsworth. Inner London Consists of the 14 authorities which make up of Central London and the Rest of Inner London. Outer London Consists of 19 authorities: Barking & Dagenham, Barnet, Bexley, Brent, Bromley, Croydon, Ealing, Enfield, Greenwich, Harrow, Havering, Hillingdon, Hounslow, Kingston upon Thames, Merton, Redbridge, Richmond upon Thames, Sutton, and Waltham Forest. For more information please contact Monica Li, GLA Intelligence Greater London Authority, City Hall, The Queen s Walk, More London, London SE1 2AA Tel: 020 7983 4889 e-mail: monica.li@london.gov.uk GLA Intelligence 18 Copyright Greater London Authority, 2014