ATC Agribusiness Roundtable - PDF Free Download

ATC Agribusiness Roundtable September 28, 2015 Jay Weiker Vice President National Association of Animal Breeders Certified Semen Services

How Can Turkey Double Milk Production by 2013 1. Increase the total number of purebred and crossbred animals. 2. Increase the rate of genetic improvement and incorporate modern technology. 3. Improve the management and nutrition levels on farm. 4. OR a combination of the above three factors. Let s look at the math.

Double the Milk Production Requires an approximate 6% increase per year from 2012 to 2023 to go from 17 million metric tons to 34 million metric tons of milk produced annually. 35 000 000 Milk Production @ 6% Annual Growth 30 000 000 25 000 000 20 000 000 15 000 000 10 000 000 5 000 000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Cattle Population Increase Modeling Increase the number of purebred cows at a rate of 4% per year. Increase the number of crossbred cows at a rate of 2% per year Decrease the number of domestic breed cattle gradually to a steady population of about 800k. Assume other genetic, management and nutrition levels remain steady. Result: Cow population increases 31% from 5.4 million head in 2012 to 7.1 million in 2023. Interestingly, the cow population in 1991 was 6.1 million head. From 1991 to 2023, the purebred and domestic cow populations flip flop positions. Cross bred cattle increase in numbers by about 1 million. This would require a very large increase in the number of imported purebred cattle or utilization of technology such as gender sorted semen.

Cattle Population Increase Modeling Purebred and domestic flip flop from 1991 to 2023. Crossbred cows increase by about 1 million 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Cow population to sustain 6% annual production growth - 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Purebred Crossbred Domestic

Cattle Population Increase Modeling Purebred and domestic flip flop from 1991 to 2023. Crossbred cows increase by about 1 million 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 Change in Cattle Population to sustain 6% annual production increase - 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Purebred Crossbred Domestic Total Cows

Challenges 1. Increase the total number of purebred and crossbred animals may not be the most efficient and economical method of achieving milk production goals. 2. It will take time and investment to add cows to the national population and continue to make genetic progress. 3. More animals results in additional strain on feed supply, manure and waste management, water & air quality.

Increase Genetic Progress and use Technology Option 2: Model Assumptions Purebred and Crossbred cow population increases by 1% annually. Genetic improvement results in increase in production per cow beginning in 2018. Genetic improvement is accumulative and takes generations. Limited number of generations of improvement in 11 year period. Utilize good genetics on LARGE number of cows to maximize the rate of genetic improvement of the national herd. Utilize imported semen from high value genomic young sire semen from major overseas breeding programs. Incorporate Female sorted semen into breeding program to increase the number of replacement heifers internally. Imported heifers and sorted semen will produce more high quality replacement heifers and allow producers to aggressively cull lower production cows from existing herd. Total cow numbers might not increase much but the average genetic level of the remaining cows will be improved.

Genetic Improvement Requires lower cow population increase 4,000,000 Cow population to sustain 6% annual production increase with genetic improvement 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 - Purebred Crossbred Domestic

Option 3: Improve Management and Nutrition Nutrition can result in rapid improvement in production with cows that have high genetic potential. Higher genetic animals require better management, nutrition and good quality feed ingredients. Better nutrition for low genetic animals will not achieve the same increases in production. When fed more, they usually put on weight. Improving Management, Nutrition, Quality of feed ingredients, genetics improvement, modern technology and live heifer imports, Turkey can achieve the target of double the milk production in 11 years from the same or fewer animals.

Cow population with improved management, nutrition, genetics & technology Change in Cattle Population at -1% annually 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000-1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Purebred Crossbred Domestic Total Cows

Cow population with improved management, nutrition, genetics & technology Change in Cattle Population at -1% annually 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000-1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Purebred Crossbred Domestic

US Dairy Population and Milk Yield 20,224 lbs 4,563 lbs 14 Courtesy of George Wiggans,

The US Holstein Cow 50 years ago 100 years ago 15 Modern Cow

Challenges to Double Meat Production by 2013 1. Lower genetic base to start with for traits that impact production efficiency. 2. Preference for Dual Purpose breeds that slow down genetic progress for either milk or meat production. 3. Limited availability of Angus females to be imported. 4. Health protocol will limit the ability to import good quality heifers or semen from the largest and most efficient breeds in the USA. 5. Improve the management and nutrition levels on farm and incorporate modern technology. 6. Turkey will most likely need to incorporate all of the above to achieve the target. 7. It will be more difficult to achieve beef target compared to milk target due to the different starting point and the health protocol for imported beef genetics from the USA.

How Can Turkey Double Meat Production by 2013 1. Place more emphasis on specialized breeds for beef. Genetic progress for meat production in dual purpose cattle is slower. 2. Incorporate more genetics into the national herd that will result in increased efficiency and total kilograms of meat produced. 3. Change the breed mix with more purebred and crossbred animals. 4. Increase the rate of genetic improvement per animal and incorporate modern technology. 5. Improve the management and nutrition levels on farm. 6. OR a combination of the above three factors. The Math is similar to the dairy models

Doubling Production for Export; Is this the correct goal? Develop a solid domestic price model so producers are profitable. Support free market policies and eliminate subsidies. The goal of doubling milk or meat production with the desire to export this product to neighboring countries requires that the end product is price competitive. If not, it will hit the domestic market and impact pricing.

Market Economics 1. The modeling we just covered addresses the HOW. 2. But is doubling production the right objective?

Efficient conversion of feed into milk or meat The ultimate objective in the bovine business is efficiently converting feed (grass or concentrates) into milk or meat.