Demographic Trends and Enrollment Forecasts

Palo Alto Unified School District Demographic Trends and Enrollment Forecasts Shelley Lapkoff, Ph.D. Lapkoff & Gobalet Demographic Research, Inc. November 13, 2007

Today s Presentation District-wide Enrollment Forecast Types of Enrollment Migration Trends/Grade Progressions Births and Kindergarten Enrollments New Housing Forecast Results

Enrollment Categories VTP students SDC students: in district and out-of-district Other out-of-district Students from new housing Remainder students from existing PAUSD housing

Migration and Housing Turnover (Cohort Survival)

Start with today s students by grade, then age the students one grade K 1 2 3 4 etc. 1 2 3 4 5 etc. some students leave, others enter

Grade Progression Differences of Residents between Fall 2006 and Fall 2007 Excludes Students from New Housing Number of Students 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 K>1 1>2 2>3 3>4 4>5 5>6 6>7 7>8 8>9 9>10 10>11 11>12 Grade Progressions

Grade Progression Differences of Residents between Fall 2006 and Fall 2007 Excludes Students from New Housing Number of Students 120 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 5-year Average K>1 1>2 2>3 3>4 4>5 5>6 6>7 7>8 8>9 9>10 10>11 11>12 Grade Progressions

Grade Progression Differences of Residents between Fall 2006 and Fall 2007 Excluding Students from New Housing Number of Students 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 K>1 1>2 2>3 3>4 4>5 5>6 6>7 7>8 8>9 9>10 10>11 11>12 Grade Progressions

150 100 50 0-50 -100 Elementary Grade Progressions Residents Only, Excluding Students from New Housing Grades K to 4 into Grades 1 to 5 81>82 82>83 83>84 84>85 85>86 86>87 87>88 88>89 89>90 90>91 91>92 92>93 93>94 94>95 95>96 96>97 97>98 98>99 99>00 00>01 01>02 02>03 03>04 04>05 05>06 06>07 Years Number of Students

Kindergarten Enrollment and Birth Trends

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Number of Births to PAUSD Residents Based on Zip Code Birth Data; Excludes Stanford Births 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year of Birth Number of Births

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Number of Births to PAUSD Residents Based on Zip Code Birth Data; Excludes Stanford Births Fall 2008 K Cohort 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year of Birth Number of Births

Resident Kindergarten Enrollment Excluding Stanford Kindergartners Excluding Students from New Housing, VTP and SDC Students 800 Number of Children 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year of Kindergarten Enrollment

Births Compared to Kindergarten Enrollment Excluding Stanford Births and Stanford Kindergartners Excluding Students from New Housing and SDC Students 800 700 Number of Children 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Births Comparison K Year of Kindergarten Enrollment

115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% Kindergarten-Birth Ratio 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year of Enrollment Kindergartners / Births 5 Yrs Prior Source of Birth Data: Zip Code Births available from the State

115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% Kindergarten-Birth Ratio 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year of Enrollment Kindergartners / Births 5 Yrs Prior Source of Birth Data: Zip Code Births available from the State

Kindergarten-Birth Ratio Low, Medium, and High Assumptions Kindergartners / Births 5 Yrs Prior 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source of Birth Data: Zip Code Births available from the State Year of Enrollment

Enrollment Impact of New Housing

Forecasts of Students from New Housing Multiply Number of Housing Units by the Student Yield Student Yield is the average number of students per housing unit

2007 Enrollments and Student Yields in Recently-Constructed Housing Unit Count # Students in 2007 Yield Stanford West Apts 628 166 0.26 Oak Ct. Apts 53 44 0.83 Summerhill SFUs 27 7 0.26 Summerhill Condos 66 1 0.02 Opportunity Center 18 16 0.89 800 High Street 60 6 0.10 Arbor Real-SFU 11 9 0.82 Arbor Real-TH (U/C) 20 10 0.50 Arbor Real-Condo (U/C) 17 3 0.18 Arbor Real - Future* n.a. 7 Vantage/940 E. Meadow (U/C) 9 3 0.33

2007 Enrollments and Student Yields in Recently-Constructed Housing Unit Count # Students in 2007 Yield Stanford West Apts 628 166 0.26 Oak Ct. Apts 53 44 0.83 Summerhill SFUs 27 7 0.26 Summerhill Condos 66 1 0.02 Opportunity Center 18 16 0.89 800 High Street 60 6 0.10 Arbor Real-SFU 11 9 0.82 Arbor Real-TH (U/C) 20 10 0.50 Arbor Real-Condo (U/C) 17 3 0.18 Arbor Real - Future* n.a. 7 Vantage/940 E. Meadow (U/C) 9 3 0.33

2007 Enrollments and Student Yields in Recently-Constructed Housing Unit Count # Students in 2007 Yield Stanford West Apts 628 166 0.26 Oak Ct. Apts 53 44 0.83 Summerhill SFUs 27 7 0.26 Summerhill Condos 66 1 0.02 Opportunity Center 18 16 0.89 800 High Street 60 6 0.10 Arbor Real-SFU 11 9 0.82 Arbor Real-TH (U/C) 20 10 0.50 Arbor Real-Condo (U/C) 17 3 0.18 Arbor Real - Future* n.a. 7 Vantage/940 E. Meadow (U/C) 9 3 0.33

Future Housing Developments Specific projects, as indicated in the report (e.g. Classic Communities, JCC/Build, Elks Lodge) ABAG RHNA Regional Housing Needs Allocation Palo Alto may be required to zone more land for residential low to moderate income housing. However, housing does not actually need to be built; land must be zoned for residential use.

Enrollment Forecasts

Forecast method: Start with regular, resident enrollments Age students one year at a time Add (or subtract) migrants Add students from new housing Estimate kindergarten enrollment Add interdistrict, SDC, and VTP students

Elementary Enrollments Current enrollment is 4,974 Forecasts for 2012-13: Low: 4,798 Medium: 5,278 High: 5,667

6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Elementary Enrollment Forecasts (All Students Included) 1978 2005 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2008 2011 6th grade moves to middle school Year Number of Students

Middle School Enrollments Current enrollment is 2,552 Forecasts for 2012-13: Low: 2,602 Medium: 2,771 High: 2,810

3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Middle School Enrollment Forecasts (All Students Included) 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 6th grade moves to middle school Year Number of Students

High School Enrollments Current enrollment is 3,584 Forecasts for 2012-13: Low: 3,838 Medium: 4,070 High: 4,299

6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 High School Enrollment Forecasts (All Students Included) 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 Year Number of Students

Summary/Conclusions Families with children have always moved into Palo Alto, but during the last six years migration has increased substantially, especially among families with pre-school and elementary children. The Medium forecast assumes the recent high migration continues indefinitely. If these high migration trends continue, Palo Alto will experience substantial enrollment increases. Students from housing built in the 2000s now number 270. By 2012, the number of students from post 2000 housing is projected to be about 600, which includes only known housing projects.

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