californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE SUNDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2018 Message Board to My Subscribers Saturday Results Despite inclement weather, off-turf and all that jazz, we met our institutional goal of 70% of the winners yesterday, with a few nice prices like Queen Shelly Ann ($15) and Lightning Dove ($10.20). Poor old Demigoddess came in next to last in the 10 th, poor gal. Horizontal hopes were not fulfilled as the three races we missed foiled that strategy. We will do our best again today to win horizontally, always a super thrill Book Recommendation A very kind subscriber, Chris C., sent me a book that I would recommend to all of you: Cashing Big, by Steve Davidowitz, publisher Daily Racing Form (2016). I just received it so I would be lying to say that I have read the whole thing. But from what I have perused, in a concise 200 or so pages it covers all that you need to know about profitable wagering on the thoroughbreds. It is NOT about handicapping, but hopefully I can help with that. But it presents strategies for the equally important wagering portion of profitable horse betting. I especially like it because one of the authors, at least, agrees with me: the soundest bets are the win bet, the Pick 4, and the Pick 5 (lol). He explains why of course. Thanks Chris. THE BREEDERS CUP- only four weeks away As you know, the Breeders Cup is an annual series of Grade I races featuring the best thoroughbred horses, both of the turf variety and those who race on the main track. It is operated by Breeders Cup Limited, a company formed in 1982. It is so popular that in 2007, it was expanded to a two-day event.
Friday November 2, 2018 features the following Breeders Cup Races: Sentient Jet Juvenile, Juvenile Turf Sprint, Juvenile Turf, Juvenile Fillies Turf, Tito s Handmade Vodka Juvenile Fillies. Saturday November 3 features the following Breeders Cup Races: The Breeders Cup Classic, Longines Turf, Longines Distaff, Dirt Mile, Twinspires Sprint, Maker s Mark Filly & Mare Turf, Filly & Mare Sprint, Turf Sprint, Breeders Cup Mile. I count fourteen races, all of which will be run on the courses at Churchill Downs. Purses range from a minimum of $1 million up to $6 million for the Classic. Needless to say, we will be watching the best trainers, jockeys and equine athletes in the world, in serious action. I have been asked by many to handicap each day s racing as a Special Project. I will prepare my usual detailed analysis for each day, and prior to that I will issue a free Breeders Cup Preview. (Naturally, I will be issuing my usual Santa Anita analyses that week as well- little sleep for the old man.) I will have two tiers of pricing for the Breeders Cup Analyses. Early pricing is $30 for both analyses for both days of racing. To pay $30, one would have to use his/her PayPal account, and pay at PayPal.me/SailorBoston, or mail a check to me. Early pricing is in effect up to October 21, close of business (5 p.m. EDT). After that, both days analysis will cost $40, or you can buy a single day s analysis for $20. Thanks for reading this Corey Nakatani This is not good news for us turf race aficionados- attuned subscriber Mike M. reports that Mr. Nakatani is nowhere near mended, and that he may be contemplating retirement. Mr. Nakatani is 47 years old. I for one hope he mends better than ever, and that he keeps thrilling us with his turf race excellence.
Note: The first post time today is 12:30 pm PDT, 3:30 pm EDT. Note: The first post time today is 12:30 pm PDT, 3:30 pm EDT. Best wishes! Horsecallany It is said by the horse whisperers that horses probably do not recognize their name, as dogs do. However, they can routinely be trained to come when called, and that is likely a product of the fact they do recognize familiar faces and voices. SPECIAL PROJECTS (reprised, new pricing) I just got a special project for Gulfstream for Sunday s race card. I have decided to reduce my price for any special project from $35 to $30. If any of you happens to be going to a track other than our home tracks--- Del Mar, Los Alamitos (briefly) and Santa Anita--- and you want me to handicap that day s races at the foreign track, if you give me a few days notice I may, depending on my personal schedule, be able to handicap that track for you. The only problem is, since it will probably be a one-off analysis (i.e., you will almost certainly be the only buyer) I would have to charge you $30. Which works out to just about minimum wage for me since I will spend
at least four-five hours handicapping and writing, more time proportionately if it is a twelve- race day like Gulfstream often has. Anyway I like to see how my expertise works in other locations, so I am willing to take this kind of thing occasionally on if my schedule allows. Obviously this applies equally if you are simply choosing to BET A FOREIGN TRACK ONLINE for some reason and want a second opinion. Thanks for reading this. The Anatomy of a Longshot- Soi Phet I was asked what made you select Soi Phet as a Likeable Longshot? As you know, that horse was my Likeable Longshot in the 9 th race on the 20th and he paid $ 96.40 for a two dollar bet that Sunday. First, I have a good wagering history with him (he has earned me money). He was moving down precipitously out of graded competition. His string of workouts was impressive still for a ten year old horse. He closes out well. And, his average Beyer rating for races from 2017 to the present (I don t go too far back in the PP s, recent is most relevant as a horse can decline fast, like an NFL running back) was terrific: 90. Frankly, looking at all of that, I don t know what the odds maker/computer was thinking: he was a serious overlay. Thank you odds maker!!! Monday, October 8, 2018 Santa Anita Race Course FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By
way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day s analysis and you will receive the next racing day s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you. Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h For only $2 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty calendar-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day for a calendar month. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather elegant summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders just look after Today s Free Selections below to see how to order, and thank you
THE FOLLOWING ARE TODAY S FREE SELECTIONS : Races 1-3 Note- for newcomers: here is the definition of a Likeable Longshot : it is a horse whom we do not expect to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other mitigating factors which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this longshot might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even I am sure you get the idea now don t bet the house but it makes an excellent beer money, as in Bud Light, bet! Note: Likeable Longshots are not available in this free version of californiawinning.com s analysis. To view Likeable Longshots please go to californiawinnig.com and click on Today s Full Racing Card and follow the process indicated. You will be glad you did, my subscribers are way ahead on the Likeable Longshots--- we just had a $75 winner recently, $75 for $2!!! *****please see below Note to all bridge jumpers : The world s best jockey, King of the Stakes, the very selective Mike Smith, has one and only one mount today: It sjustanillusion, one of only five entries in the 5 th Race, The Anoakia, Six Furlongs, Main Track. As for me, I think I will bet a million dollars that that horse shows up oops, I don t have a million darn RACE 1: Colormemoney is in the hearts and minds of the odds maker(s)/computer as the ML favorite, as he won one of five races at race distance ( RD ) and hit the board in the other four such races, she has a top-tier trainer and looms large. Gringo Star gets a notch of class relief, has won two of nine races on the main track, both sprints, and hit the board in seven of nine such races, and he carries a very talented apprentice with a hefty five-pound weight allowance, much like getting
a head start in this race. Don t Stalk Me is the top 2018 earner, he won two of three races at RD and hit the board in the third, he also carries our second or third best rider to boot (I go Stakes Smith, Prat, then Van Dyke). Likeable Longshot: (There is one for this race, and there are several likeable longshots today, but these are not available in the free selections you can view those and the rest of today s free analysis by following the directions below to pay $5 for Today s Full Race Card OR $20 for a 30 day subscription ) RACE 2: Rested Air Jockey hit the board in two of three dirt sprints, sports a string of excellent workouts, and benefits for the first time from the Espinoza parallax. Well-rested Big Barrel placed here is his sole effort at RD, he will be in the hunt. Sir Eddie is a turf sprinter who placed in four of six tries, and he just raced here one week ago, strangely enough he is the ML favorite. Likeable Longshot: (There is one for this race, and there are several likeable longshots today, but these are not available in the free selections you can view those and the rest of today s free analysis by following the directions below to pay $5 for Today s Full Race Card OR $20 for a 30 day subscription ) RACE 3: Lob City (ML 12/1) benefits from class relief, spends most of her racing career (about 2/3) at RD, and wins 20% of the time at RD, she is almost always in the scrum and looks good in this spot. Dizzy Diva moves down a smidgen and has never missed the board at RD, her rider/trainer
duo is top-notch with the ubiquitous, undersung Talamo aboard. If You Like It is the ML favorite, as she has won a heady seven of nineteen races at RD, and she nearly always battles to the end, she will make her presence known. Likeable Longshot: (There is one for this race, and there are several likeable longshots today, but these are not available in the free selections you can view those and the rest of today s free analysis by following the directions below to pay $5 for Today s Full Race Card OR $20 for a 30 day subscription ) ***** NOTE: IF THIS IS YOUR FIRST SUCH REQUEST, YOU CAN EMAIL ME AT fryer08057@yahoo.com, WITH THE CODE HORSIES AND I WILL SEND YOU TODAY S FULL ANALYSIS FREE OF CHARGE THANK YOU See instructions below on how to buy today s card, or to subscribe for a mere $20 for thirty days of race analysis ***** californiawinning.com All rights reserved You can buy today s full analysis for $5, or, Why not subscribe now, it s less than $1 per day far less than what you pay for The DRF or Racing Digest and more informative to boot, since they do not provide a graded handicap and far less than the touts charged for their card when this track opened on December 25, 1934 So, for Today s Full Race card for the mere sum of $5, or, better yet, to subscribe for 30 calendar days analysis for only $20, go to californiawinning.com, click on Today s Full Race Card and pay through your PayPal account (or use a credit card or debit card), OR, if you have a PayPal account, for an easier one-click process go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment
Today s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you. Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss and the latest one, What If It Rains on Race Day?