Frandsen Publishing Presents Favorite ALL-Ways TM Newsletter Articles Handicapping Honest Pace Races The Opposing Pace Gap Method Introduction The pace match-up scenario of all races can be categorized as either FAST EARLY, LONE EARLY, HONEST or SLOW. These are called Race Pace Shapes in ALL-Ways Software. The pace match-up scenario in HONEST Pace races, by definition, will not cause either a fast pace or a slow pace to the 2 nd Call. Early ( E ) and Early Presser ( EP ) horses generally have an edge in HONEST Pace races, particularly in sprints. But, many high odds top 4 finishers are late running Presser ( P ) and Sustainer ( S ) horses. HONEST Pace races are also generally influenced the most by the prevailing track bias compared to other Race Pace Shapes. HONEST Pace races are the toughest races to handicap, at least to do so profitably and a substantial majority of all races are HONEST Pace races. On the other hand, a key to consistent and long term profitable play is to learn how to handicap and play, or pass, HONEST Pace races. This article discusses a solid way to approach this that we call The Opposing Pace Gap Method. Caution: As you read this article, you may initially think This is too simplistic. But, after you look at the examples, you will likely think This is powerful. The key benefit is the process itself and how it helps organize your handicapping. All past ALL-Ways Newsletters, as well as a Major Topic Index, are posted on both the BRIS and Frandsen Publishing Web sites and they are always free. Also, articles already published as part of the Favorite ALL-Ways Newsletter Article series are posted in the Newsletter Section on the Frandsen Publishing Web site and they are free as well. See the links at the end of this article. Race Pace Shapes For a detailed discussion of Race Pace Shapes, we refer you to the ALL-Ways Favorite Article titled Race Pace Shapes. Several years ago, Frandsen Publishing first
introduced the concept of categorizing races to be run into four different Race Pace Shapes. Three of these Pace Shapes, namely FAST EARLY, LONE EARLY and SLOW, lend themselves very nicely to pace oriented handicapping decisions. Good closers often win FAST EARLY races. A LONE EARLY horse often runs away from the field. Late runners with the best early pace ratings often unexpectedly find themselves on or near the early lead and go on to win SLOW races. This brings us to the fourth Race Pace Shape, namely HONEST races. These races are designated by ALL-Ways software as E-EP or EP-EP races. E-EP races have one horse with an E running style and one or more horses with an EP running style. EP-EP races have no E runners and two or more horses with an EP running style. These are called HONEST Pace races because the pace match-up will not cause either a fast or slow pace to the second call. Here are some important points to keep in mind about HONEST Pace races: The majority of races have a HONEST Race Pace Shape. E and EP runners generally have a slight edge, particularly in sprints. HONEST Pace Shape races can be significantly influenced by a strong track bias, more so than the other Race Pace Shapes. HONEST Pace Shape races are the toughest races to handicap... at least to handicap profitably. A significant percentage of HONEST Pace races should not be bet. They should be passed. WOW! HONEST Pace races make up the majority of races, they are difficult to handicap and a substantial percentage of them should be passed. So why bother? Well, FAST EARLY, LONE EARLY and SLOW Pace races will present you with some very nice high paying horses. But, in our opinion, a key to consistent and long term profitable play is to learn how to handicap and play, or pass, HONEST Pace races. We are going to show you our favorite way of handicapping these races. We call it The Opposing Pace Gap Method. The Opposing Pace Gap Method for playing HONEST Pace races HONEST pace races are very prone to having a combination of the best early running horses and the best late running horses dueling it out down the stretch run for the top finish positions, more so than the other Race Pace Shapes. This Opposing Pace Gap
Method takes advantage of this characteristic. The method is simple and very fast to use. If it seems a little too simplistic as we explain the method, stick with it. It really is very effective. Start by drawing two small columns on your handicapping reports/notes. One column is for early running horses ( E and EP horses) and the other column is for late running horses ( P and S horses). Some Clarification For this Opposing Pace Gap Method, when we refer to, we are referring to a significant difference between two horses based on your overall, comprehensive handicapping evaluation of the horses. It is not necessarily based on just a single handicapping factor rating for the horses. The is based on your judgment. This will become clear as you review the examples that are coming up. Let s first work on the early running horses. Write down the name of the best early running horse (say Horse A ). It will generally be the early running horse rated the highest by ALL-Ways software. Next write down the name of the next best early running horse (say Horse B ). If these first two horses are very close in ability and you have a hard time choosing one or the other as your top pick, then write s name directly under and go on and look for the third best early running horse (say Horse C ). However, if is clearly superior to or is clearly better suited to the match-up of today s race, then leave a blank line under before writing s name down. This blank line is the. The key here is to keep writing down the early running horses directly under each other until you identify a before the next horse. Then, if there are any early horses remaining, you write down the next horse after the Gap and move on to late running horses. Now, just repeat the process for late running horses. Keep writing down late running horses until you identify the before the next horse. Then write down the next horse after the Gap. There will be times when the early running horses are just plain not going to figure in the race at all. In this case, put the Gap at the top of the list and put the best early horse after the Gap. The same situation can also apply to the late running horses. However, it will not happen to both early and late running horses in the same race. Of course, ALL-Ways software will make this process pretty easy because it helps identify the best horses and it will show you each horse s running style.
Examples of the Opposing Pace Gap Method Now, we are going to look at some examples. Before we do, however, it is important to understand the concept behind this approach. First and foremost, this is not intended to be a mechanical system of play. Instead, it is intended to be a method of organizing your thoughts when confronted with the often tough task of handicapping HONEST Pace races. The concept is simple. The race is going to be won by either the best early running horse or the best late running horse. And, very often the place horse will have a running style just the opposite of the running style of the winning horse. Again, remember that this is not a mechanical system. So, how you actually play each of these scenarios will depend on the specific circumstances and match-ups in the race. And, you would, of course, only make specific wagers if the probable payoffs indicate a value play. Example A: This is a one or two horse race. If A is clearly superior to F in this race, then you may want to bet A to win, an A/F straight Exacta and/or an A/F/BG Trifecta (a $4 bet for a $2 Trifecta). If the F horse is the superior horse, just reverse A and F. If A and F are close, then you may want to bet both A and F to win, an AF/AF Exacta box and/or an AF/AF/BG Trifecta ($8). (Continued)
Example B: Horse H This is the most common chart you will see, so we will spend a little more time on it. It shows a one, two or three horse race. These three different scenarios will be handled quite differently. First, if A is clearly superior in this race, you may want to bet A to win, an A/FG Exacta and/or an A/FG/BFGH Trifecta ($12). Second, if the F and G horses are superior to the A horse, then you may want to bet both F and G to win, a FG/AFG Exacta and/or a FG/AFG/ABFGH Trifecta ($24). The third scenario is if horses A, F and G are all about equal. In this case, looking for value plays is crucial. Most likely, one of the horses will be an underlay and the other two will be overlays. You may want to bet both overlay horses to win. In most cases it is best to avoid the temptation to play a three horse Exacta box. Instead, bet the individual Exacta combinations that are value plays. We would be inclined to not bet the Trifecta unless the crowd s favorite figured to finish off-the-board or one of these horses was a long shot and we were very confident it would finish in-the-money. In this case, we would look to key either horse A, F or G in the win and place positions. The Trifecta wager might look something like this: A/FG/BFGH and FG/A/BFGH ($24). See the ALL- Ways Favorite Article titled The Very Best Way We Know to Play the Trifecta for suggestions on how to bet the Trifecta. (Continued)
Example C: Horse C This is another two horse race. But, in this case, the two primary win candidates are both early running horses ( E and/or EP ). If the off-odds are satisfactory, you may want to bet both A and B to win, an AB/AB Exacta box and/or an AB/AB/CF Trifecta ($8). One point of caution: If both the early running horses are E horses, there is a strong possibility that only one of the E horses will finish well and the other will be off-the-board. Example D: Horse C Horse H This is a two or four horse race. If A and B are clearly superior in this race to F and G, then you might bet A and B to win and an AB/ABFG Exacta. We would not play the Trifecta unless the crowd favorite figures to finish off-the-board or we are very confident a long shot will finish in-the-money. If all four of the top horses (A, B, F and G) are relatively equal in this race, we would pass the race. If we cannot narrow the probable winner down to three horses or less, we generally will not play the race. (Continued)
Example E: Horse H Horse I Horse J This is an interesting one. This indicates there is no meaningful between the late running horses. If A is the superior horse in this race, we would bet A to win and we would play selected combinations of A/FGHIJ Exacta tickets. We would play those with probable payoffs indicating good value. We would not play them all. We would most likely pass the Trifecta unless the crowd favorite figures to finish off-the-board. If A is not superior in this race to the late runners, we would most likely pass the race. Example F: Horse C Horse D Horse H Horse I This one is easy. There are six horses we are having a hard time separating. This might be a good opportunity for a 10 cent Superfecta. But, more often than not, we would sit this one out. Summary Hopefully, this Opposing Pace Gap method will help you sort through HONEST Pace races. It will help determine which wagers to make and how best to structure them. And, it will help make it clear when you should pass an HONEST Pace race. Winning horseplayers do not play every race. Knowing when to pass a race is as important to profitable play as is picking winners.
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