Coastal Adaptation to Sea level Rise Patrick Cunningham

Coastal Adaptation to Sea level Rise Patrick Cunningham 1

Muskie School of Public Service University of Southern Maine Portland, Maine Samuel Merrill, PhD President COAST developer Paul Kirshen, PhD Senior Technical Consultant Climate Science Copyright 2013 Blue Marble Geographics 11

Twenty Years in Business 200,000 + Users, Every Country, Surveyors, GIS Analysts, Planners, Engineers, Students, Software Developers GIS Software Development The Geographic Calculator, Global Mapper, GeoCalc SDK, GeoCore SDK, and Global Mapper SDK Professional Services Training Copyright 2013 Blue Marble Geographics 15

It is Difficult to Shift into Action Mode: 1) Consequences appear far off in time. 2) Cost-benefit relationships are ambiguous. 3) Possible actions are complex. 4) Doing nothing is far, far easier. Copyright 2013 Blue Marble Geographics 17

There are only four options: 1) Do nothing (usually = remain in denial) 2) Fortify assets 3) Accommodate higher water levels 4) Relocate assets >> COAST is a tool and approach to help evaluate costs and benefits of these options. Copyright 2013 Blue Marble Geographics 20

Data for Modeling Army Core of Engineers Depth Damage Functions (based on Flood and Insurance claim data) NOAA and Local tidal and storm data Sea level rise curves (from the literature and/or stakeholder selected) Vulnerable asset selection Adaptation action selection (from fortify/accomodate/relocate for that vulnerable asset) Assessors' Tables Geospatial data like LIDAR or other elevation layer, parcels, imagery, etc. Copyright 2013 Blue Marble Geographics 27

Some Project Sites Completed or Underway East Machias/Falmouth, Maine Old Orchard Beach, Maine Portland, Maine Hampton/Hampton Falls/Seabrook, New Hampshire Cambridge, Massachusetts Duxbury/Marshfield/Scituate, Massachusetts Groton/Mystic, Connecticut Kingston, New York Oxford, Maryland Copyright 2013 Blue Marble Geographics 29

COAST Results The model will then tell you the dollar damage predicted for a particular-sized storm in a given year, in 3D maps and calculate the cumulative expected damage from all predicted storms out to that year. Copyright 2013 Blue Marble Geographics 40

Next Steps in the COAST Process 5. Select candidate adaptation actions to protect from sea level rise and storm surge, staged over time, and estimate costs of each action. Copyright 2013 Blue Marble Geographics 41

A Range of Vulnerable Assets: Economic output Public health impacts Displaced persons, vulnerable demographics Natural resources values Cultural resources values Community impacts Infrastructure (transportation, energy, facilities, telecommunications) Copyright 2013 Blue Marble Geographics 48

Possible Adaptation Actions: Hard or Soft Revetments Sea walls Jetties Levees Subway tunnel plugs Automatic floodgates Geotextile tubes Beach nourishment Dry flood-proofing Wet flood-proofing Increasing freeboard (now or later) Zoning changes Rolling easements Buyouts Copyright 2013 Blue Marble Geographics 49

Joint Proposal: Catalysis Adaptation Partners with Parsons Brinckerhoff Establishing the Proper Design Height of Protection Measures For the NYCT 207 th Street Yard Copyright 2013 Blue Marble Geographics 57

Setting of Design Height must take into account: Probabilities of Tidal Stage when Surge Occurs during the Tidal Cycle (At high or low tide?) Probabilities of Surge Levels ( How many feet should be added to the normal tide height?) Predictions of Sea Level Rise into the Future (2042, 2062 or 2100?) Design Life of the Protection Measure (30, 50 or 100 years?) Value of Protected Assets and Avoided Cumulative Expected Damages over Design Life The COAST tool applied by Catalysis Adaptation Partners will insure that costs for various protection heights are weighed against probabilities of flood heights and costs of predicted damages, including each of these factors. Copyright 2013 Blue Marble Geographics 58

North Hampton, NH Coastal Area 59

North Hampton, NH Selected Public Assets and Thresholds Asset 100 Yr. High SLR Low SLR Flood Seabrook WW Treatment Plant 9.8 now now Hampton WW Treatment Plant 9.8 now now Hampton Police Station 8.2 now now Hampton Sewage Pump Station 6.6 now now Seabrook Middle/Elem. School 14.8 ~2080 >2100 Hampton High School 23.0 >2100 >2100 NextEra Nuclear Power Plant 19.7 >2100 >2100 60

Portland, ME Back Cove, Area 66

Back Cove, Portland Maine 67

2100, high sea level rise and mean higher high water 68

(R. Obrey.) Whole Foods1/9/10 at high tide 69

The Old Port, 10/11 at high tide (M. Craig) 71

Marginal Way and Cove St., 9/10, New Moon J. Piribeck 73

Marginal Way and Cove St., 9/10, New Moon J. Piribeck 74

The Old Port, 3/10 at high tide (D. Yakovleff) 75

Now the Portland Case: The four options: 1) Do nothing 2) Fortify assets 3) Relocate assets 4) Accommodate higher water levels 76

Sea Level Change (inches) Projection of Sea Level Rise from 1990 to 2100 79 71 63 55 47 40 32 24 16 8 0 Copyright 2013 Blue Marble Geographics 79 Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. PNAS 106, 21527 21532.

2050, high sea level rise, 100 year storm COAST ASSET DATA Flood Depth = 6.149 ft Estimated Damage = $9,850,023 FEATURE ATTRIBUTES LAYER = Unknown Area Type ELEVATION = -0.0000085 OBJECTID_2 = 1 OBJECTID = 1369 Id = 0 CBL = 023 E002 LEAD_CBL = 023 E002 no_cbl = cbl Shape_Leng = 1152.8652 dissolve = 0 Shape_Le_1 = 1152.8652 OBJECTID_3 = 5336 ID_1 = 577749 HTEACCT = 3376 CBL_1 = 023 E002001 LANDID = 66415 DESC_ = BUILDING VALUE YEAR = 12 PRIORITY = 2 VALUE = 2704100 EXEMPT = GISCBL = 023 E002 ADJ_CURVAL = 2704100 ADJ_VALUE = 15846240 ADJUSTMENT = current value + 103,400 sq. ft * $127.10/sq. ft GISCBL_1 = 023 E002 PARID = 023 E002001 GISCBL_12 = 023 E002 BLDG_DESC = RETAIL - MULTI OCCUPANCY BLDG_CLASS = 2 BASEMENT = STORIES = 0 Shape_Le_2 = 1152.8652 Shape_Le_3 = 1152.8651 Shape_Area = 64598.031 Copyright 2013 Blue Marble Geographics 82

Back Cove, Portland, Maine Adaptation Costs and Cumulative Expected Damages, through 2050. SLR Scenario Adaptation Damages Adaptation Cost Total Cost & Damage Percent from SLR Only No SLR No Action $373,814,977 $0 $373,814,977 0.00% No SLR Back Cove Levee $3,595,485 $103,000,000 $106,595,485 0.00% V&R 2009 High No Action $436,335,109 $0 $436,335,109 0.03% V&R 2009 High Back Cove Levee $8,169,001 $103,000,000 $111,169,001 1.36% V&R 2009 Low No Action $405,435,010 $0 $405,435,010 0.03% V&R 2009 Low Back Cove Levee $5,643,428 $103,000,000 $108,643,428 1.96% Copyright 2013 Blue Marble Geographics 83

Back Cove, Portland, Maine Adaptation Costs and Cumulative Expected Damages, through 2100. SLR Scenario Adaptation Damages Adaptation Cost Total Cost & Damage Percent from SLR Only No SLR No Action $868,893,372 $0 $868,893,372 0.00% No SLR Back Cove Levee $8,719,621 $103,000,000 $111,719,621 0.00% V&R 2009 High No Action $1,134,925,448 $0 $1,134,925,448 25.20% V&R 2009 High Back Cove Levee $102,291,952 $103,000,000 $205,291,952 279.54% V&R 2009 Low No Action $1,077,527,562 $0 $1,077,527,562 0.01% V&R 2009 Low Back Cove Levee $27,255,870 $103,000,000 $130,255,870 0.41% Copyright 2013 Blue Marble Geographics 86

Elsewhere in Maine Under discussion 87

Coastal Adaptation to Sea level Rise Patrick Cunningham 101