THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot) 9/27/2015 OVERVIEW We were all around it yesterday but couldn t quite connect the dots, as the sequence came back an unlucky A-C-C-A and, of course, in the two legs where the C s won, our A s finished second. The silver lining is the winner of the nightcap saved my bacon, as we had one of our A s go off and win at 12/1, so hopefully some of you cashed win tickets after being knocked out of the P4. Let s see what today s $500K Guaranteed Late P4 has in store for us PICK 4 LEG 1 (R6): Today s sequence begins with an interesting overnight-stakes race, the $75K King Pellinore, a 1-1/4 mile turf affair and it s interesting because of the presence of ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR, a multiple Grade 2 winner who is getting major class relief today. #1 ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR (5/2) should be running in a graded-stakes race, but there isn t one on the calendar for him. He won three races earlier in the year before trying Grade 1 foes in New Jersey. That didn t work out, but he got back to good form in his return to California when running second in the Del Mar Handicap (G2) to a horse who is being pointed to the Breeders Cup Turf (G1). GRADE: A. #2 DANAS BEST (6/1), the first of two D Amato entrants, looked ready to fire his best last time when making his second stateside start and getting some extra distance, but he couldn t quite get it done in the Del Mar Handicap (G2). He ll appreciate the class relief, but he ll have to turn the tables on his foe to the inside. GRADE: A. #3 SOUTHERN FREEDOM (15/1) found classified-allowance foes too hard to handle at Del Mar, and this field isn t any easier than that plus, that was when King Jerry was winning everything, so I m guessing he was fully cranked that day. That said, I do like the way he finished and galloped-out, so he could move forward today. GRADE: C. #4 QUICK CASABLANCA (CHI) (10/1) is a Grade 3 winner over this course, and he has run some pretty big races but he s now 7-years-old, and his two races this year are not up to snuff. Plus, trainer Ron McAnally is currently 0-for-34 this year ouch! GRADE: X. #5 TEXAS RYANO (9/2) improbably needed four tries to clear the N2X hurdle, which he finally did in impressive fashion at Del Mar, but I think that field was a little suspect. He always fires, so you have to include him, but the class test and his closing running style are some things to think about. GRADE: B. #6 CLASS LEADER (12/1) tried our best dirt horses in the Pacific Classic (G1), and that didn t work out for him, but that wasn t surprising because his dirt form was just okay. He s actually bred very nicely for the turf, so I m glad to see Sadler giving it a go on the green. That said, he ll have to move up on the surface switch to beat the favorite in here. GRADE: C. #8 CRUCERO (12/1) is a marathoner, so today s 1-1/4 miles might actually be too short for the winner of the 1-3/4 mile San Juan Capistrano (G3). I wouldn t fault anyone for using him, but I think he s just a grinder who will need the top two to not fire in here. GRADE: X. #9 KULIK LODGE (4/1) had some trouble in the Del Mar Mile (G2) last time, and before that, he ran in a very salty Wickerr, also at one-mile. The best race of his life came at 1-1/8 miles, so maybe today s extra distance will work to his advantage? GRADE: B. #10 BACCELO (BRZ) (30/1) followed up an eighth-place finish in the Wickerr with a near-miss against $62.5K optional-claiming/n2x foes at Del Mar. He was a Grade 1 winner in Brazil before coming here, but it doesn t look like he s been able to match up with our tougher turf horses. GRADE: X.
#11 FLAMBOYANT (FR) (30/1) has yet to win a race since he won his stateside debut last April. He ran some nice races as a 3-year-old, but he hasn t quite trained on with four very poor races this year (though with some excuses). I ve always thought he had ability, but he s going to need to turn back the clock to have an impact here. GRADE: C. #12 ABBEY VALE (IRE) (8/1), the second D Amato runner, is definitely talented, but he s had some physical issues. He hasn t been seen since April, but the good news is: he fires fresh. The post is no bargain, but I do think he is a fit with these, provided he s happy, healthy, and ready to fire fresh. GRADE: B. LEG 2 (R7): Today s second leg is a $40K optional-claiming/n1x contested at 6.5-furlongs, and I happen to think this is a very tricky race. #1 PAPA TURF (8/1) is a check earner, but he hasn t been able to clear this condition in several tries. The rail draw forces his hand, and that s not a good thing. GRADE: X. #2 DISTINCTIVE B (8/1) took forever to break his maiden, and when he did, it came against $20K maiden-claimers but he sure did it in impressive time. He then easily cleared the starter-allowance hurdle before being derailed at this level at Del Mar but his fourth-place finish as the tepid 7/2 favorite really wasn t that bad. I like the way this horse finishes his races. GRADE: C. #3 SIR SAMSON (5/1) ran third in the 7-furlong San Vicente (G2) against fellow 3-year-olds before getting thrown to the wolves in the 8.5-furlong San Felipe (G2). He hit the shelf after that and now returns in a much more realistic spot. Will he be fit off the Los Al works? GRADE: C. #4 SKELTON PASS (5/2), a 3-year-old, was claimed for $62.5K off of Carla Gaines by John Sadler, who promptly ran him against MSWs, where he crushed. I don t typically like to back horses like this for two reasons: beating maidens is not the same as beating winners; second, Gaines doesn t give anything away, so I wonder if this guy has a physical issue waiting to rear its ugly head. That said, it s hard to ignore his last race. GRADE: B. #5 VEGAS STRIP (20/1) was all-out to break his maiden at Los Al, going 5.5-furlongs last year. He s been off since last November, and even though Baffert is lethal off this kind of layoff, this guy has been training with the D-string at Los Al. GRADE: X. #6 TANNERSMYMUSCLE (30/1) has solid finishing ability, but his best races have come against Cal-breds while getting a weight break. His three races at this level were pretty blah, especially when you consider the fact that they came at a time when Kruljac was winning a lot of races. GRADE: X. #7 UNBLUNTED (15/1), a 3-year-old, is a first-time gelding, and I m glad for that because something needed to be done to shake things up after two really bad races at Del Mar. But if you key off his June 11 race at Santa Anita, you can make a case for him at a huge price. GRADE: C. #8 GUNS LOADED (6/1) got run off his feet at Del Mar when he was eligible for the ship-and-win bonus not a good sign, since he had to be fully cranked that day. He now drops from the $80K optional level to today s $40K. That class relief should help wake him up, especially since he has races that fit here, as well as several solid works coming into this race. GRADE: A. #9 LOOK TWICE (6/1) was ill-spotted last time in the Pirates Bounty, running against the likes of Big Macher after just one maiden win. That reeked of OPS owner picked spot. Now this 3-year-old is where he belongs. His maiden-breaker was very professional, and there is upside here. GRADE: A. #10 ALL RUN (8/1) made his first start for Baltas a winning one by capturing a starter-allowance at Del Mar. He won pretty easily, pressing a slow pace and drawing off against weaker competition. Today the waters get deeper. GRADE: X. #11 GANGNAM GUY (8/1) is now 2-for-3 since joining the Hollendorfer barn. Before that he was 1-for-20. They don t call him King Jerry for nothing! That said, this guy s starter-allowance win and his Cal-bred win don t stack up against what he s facing today. GRADE: X.
LEG 3 (R8): Today s featured race is the $200K City of Hope Mile (G2), an 8-furlong turf prep for the Breeders Cup Mile (G1) and while I doubt any of these can hang with the best milers in the world, it s still a neat race. #1 POSHSKY (12/1) is in very good form right now, but he s tried graded-stakes company before to no avail. GRADE: X. #2 HOT HOT HEAT (20/1) makes his first start for D Amato, after running at Woodbine. This former claimer tried Grade 2 company last time and was destroyed. This seems like a very tough spot for his So Cal debut. GRADE: X. #3 BIG CAZANOVA (15/1) will look to wire the field, but he hasn t been the same horse since synthetics disappeared from So Cal. I will say that I like him better on turf than on dirt, but I d have to think someone will run him down. GRADE: X. #4 SILENTIO (15/1) has always been one of my favorite-looking horses: he s just a gorgeous animal but he s also seen better days, with his last win coming way back in 2013. If he can turn back the clock, he s a threat, but it s very tough to look past his recent poor form and the long layoff. GRADE: X. #5 TWENTYTWENTYVISION (5/1) is in very good form right now with three wins and two seconds in his last five starts. He had the lead in the Eddie Read (G1) at 1-1/8 miles but was overtaken by a better horse no shame there. He shows up for work every time and looks a logical fit in here. GRADE: B. #6 TALCO (FR) (5/2) won the Shoemaker Mile (G1) back in June and then just missed in the Del Mar Mile (G2), running second with an eventful trip. He s another one who fires every time, and I see no reason why he won t again today. GRADE: A. #7 AVANZARE (3/1) beat TALCO (FR) in the Del Mar Mile (G2), closing strongly into a slow pace. He s another who should fire again today. GRADE: A. #8 BIG BANE THEORY (5/1) won this race last year, beating the foe to his inside, but he s been winless since. He also hasn t been seen since February. That said, he has fired fresh before and his very best efforts put him in the frame today. GRADE: B. #9 ALERT BAY (4/1) won the Mathis Brothers Mile (G2) here last December in fact, he has three wins in four tries over this course. He s just a really cool horse, acting on all surfaces and at all distances. I do find it curious, however, that Tyler ends up on the D Amato runner instead of this guy, who he won with twice before last winter. GRADE: C. LEG 4 (R9): After three awesome races, we were bound to get a low-level race thrown into the mix! Today s nightcap is a $30K maiden-claimer for 2-year-olds contested at one-mile on the main-track. #1 STORM QUEST (8/1) had a horror trip in his debut when breaking slowly from the rail and being forced to steady. Unfortunately, he gets the rail again, but at least today he gets a much better gate jock in Baze. I d give him another shot for a trainer who does better second-out anyway. GRADE: C. #2 KEEPIN IT LUCKY (12/1) keeps dropping down the class ladder, and even though I like Molly Pearson with young horses, this one has failed to make an impact at all. Perhaps the 7-pound bug girl will help on the stretch-out? GRADE: X. #3 FREAKING FRECKLES (30/1) has been gelded after showing no signs of life in three starts. If you believe that s enough, have at it but I ll watch one. GRADE: X. #4 SUGAR BUZZ (2/1) ran better than looked in his debut, where he checked in fourth after closing on a speed-friendly track and he was claimed by O Neill. Bejarano rides. Look out. GRADE: A.
#5 WASTE IT WISELY (12/1) also continues the drop down the ladder after four pretty bad efforts. You can be a little more forgiving of the last race, though, since he broke slowly from the rail against better. GRADE: X. #6 AFLEET DOMINATION (5/2) ran two even races against straight-maidens and now gets the drop today. He looks like a major contender here. GRADE: A. #7 PALAMON (9/2), the first Miyadi runner, improved from start one to start two, and now this son of Ghostzapper gets to stretch out, which is a very good move for Miyadi. He looks a little sneaky. GRADE: B. #8 NUSRET (6/1) pressed a slow pace and weakened, but that came off a layoff, so you can forgive it. He s been favored in both of his starts, so he must look good in the mornings. Expect Perez to try and take them the whole way. GRADE: B. #9 CHIEF WARRIOR (20/1) also stretches out, but he hasn t shown anything in his first two races. The seven-pound weight break will help, but I don t think that s enough. GRADE: X. #10 SHOT IN THE DARK (30/1), the second Miyadi runner, also stretches out after two poor sprint races. He ll have to work out a good trip from a tough post. GRADE: X. SUGGESTED WAGER With several A s at 6/1 on the morning-line, I m willing to spend the $118 to play the full matrix because the payout should be nice if we can hit it. If you want to keep it under $50, you can play the All A Entries and A s with One B for $40. Whatever you choose to do, always remember: only play what you re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drfbets-ticketmaker. (SCROLL DOWN FOR TODAY S TICKETMAKER MATRIX.)