1 Summary of Travel Trends Findings from the 2017 NHTS Nancy McGuckin, Travel Behavior Analyst Anthony Fucci, Westat
2 A BIG thank you to: FHWA Team: Danny Jenkins, FHWA Stacey Bricka, Macrosys Tim Reusher, ORNL Westat Team: Janice Machado Shawn McCloskey Shelly Brock
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 3 Critical Method Differences: 2009 NHTS 2017 NHTS RDD Landline Sample Frame Mail-out/Telephone Recruit Usable household requires 50% of adults to complete Self-reported trip distances Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing only (CATI) Address-based Sample Frame Mail-out/Mail-back Recruit Usable household requires 100% of members 5+ to complete Network-coded shortest path rip distances Self-report on a Web-based Retrieval with CATI option
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 4 Short story on method effects (so far): Trip rates by age, sex, urban/rural, income, purpose, etc. all seem to track with previous trends--they continue to decline. There may be some effect here due to self-reporting more research is needed. Trip distance was collected differently and may need an adjustment to be comparable. This effects VMT and PMT trends. More research is needed. Transit is a bit high while vehicle trip rates are a bit low we don t know why yet. FHWA has funded research on this. Walk and bike may have a break in trends analysis due to a change in trip definition, and possibly underreporting of short non-purposeful trips. More research is needed.
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 5 Trip Rates Immobile Rates/Zero Trip Reports Trips per Traveling Person Trip Distance Transit & Walk
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 6 Trip rates by age, sex, urban/rural, income, purpose, etc. all seem to track with previous trends--they continue to decline. The declines are from trips for shopping and errands. Trends in Person Trips by Purpose, 1990 to 2017 3.8 4.3 4.1 3.8 1.0 0.4 1.7 1.1 0.4 2.0 1.1 0.4 1.8 1.0 0.4 1.6 3.4 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.0 Daily Trip Rate Estimate Other Social and Recreational School/Church Shopping and Errands To or From Work 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 7 Immobile Rates are high: Many more people are reporting no travel on the travel day. There may be some effect here due to self-reporting more research is needed.
Percent of Weighted Respondents Reporting Zero Trips 2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 8 Zero Trip Reports are significantly different by method: 30.0% Trends in Immobile Rates by Age and Method of Retrieval CPO_Web LL_Web CPO_CATI LL_CATI Margin of Error 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% <16 16-29 30-44 45-54 55+ Total
Person Trips per Day 2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 9 Trips per traveling person are significantly lower for all but older travelers: 6.00 Trends in Trips per Traveling Person 5.00 1995 4.00 2001 3.00 2.00 1.00 2009 2017 Margin of Error - 16-30 31-44 45-60 61-75 76+ All Age Group
Per Capita Vehicle Miles per Day 2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 10 Trip distance was collected differently and may need an adjustment to be comparable. This effects VMT and PMT trends. A suggested adjustment was part of STT, but does not make a significant difference. 50 Average Daily VMT by People in Different Age Groups 1990 40 1995 30 2001 2009 20 2017 10 Margin of Error 0 16-24 25-34 35-44 45+ 16-24 25-34 35-44 45+ Urban Rural
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 11 Transit trips are unaccountably high Primarily because of higher estimate of subway use and transit commutes. FHWA has funded research on this. Margin of Error
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 12 Walk and bike trips may also not be comparable due to a change in trip definition, and possibly under-reporting of short non-purposeful trips. More research is needed. Margin of Error
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 13
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 14 The number of people in nonmetro areas has remained about the same since 1980 population growth has gone to metro areas 66.2 84.5 Number of People in Metropolitan and Non- Metropolitan Areas (in millions) 65.9 Metro 63.0 57.1 113.5 140.2 169.4 Non-Metro 56.0 192.7 55.4 59.5 226.0 249.3 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: 1950 through 2000, " Demographic Trends in the 20th Century", Census Special Reports, by Frank Hobbs and Nicole Stoops, 11/1/2002, 2010 added by author from American Factfinder
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 15 The population is aging: Percent of the US Population by Age Group Ages 65 and older Ages 35-64 Ages 20-34 Ages 5-19 The aging of baby boomers means that within just a couple decades, older people are projected to outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history. By 2035, there will be 78.0 million people 65 years and older compared to 76.4 million under the age of 18. US Census Bureau, March 13, 2018 Jonathon Vespa, Release Number: CB18-41 1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 16 About 61.3 percent of the 2017 NHTS Sample Were Workers (BLS estimate is 60.4 in 2017) Number of People aged 16+
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 17 Long term trends in other travel-related factors:
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 18 Household Travel Person Travel Special Topics
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: HOUSEHOLD TRAVEL 19 Trends in Household-Based Travel 10.5 9.7 8.9 9.5 8.6 5.7 6.4 6.0 5.7 5.1 3.8 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.7 Daily Person Trips per Household Daily Vehicle Trips per Household Daily Person Trips per Person Daily Vehicle Trips per Driver 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017 Margin of Error
Annual Person Trips per HH 2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: HOUSEHOLD TRAVEL 20 Middle- and higher-income households report lower trip making: 6,000.0 Trips per HH by HH Income 5,000.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 - All LESS THAN $15,000 $15 to $24,999 $25-$34,999 $35-$49,999 $50-$74,999 $75-$99,999 $100,000 AND OVER 1990 1995 2001 2009 est. 2017 est. Margin of Error
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: HOUSEHOLD TRAVEL Household VMT trends show significant declines in errands and social/rec between 2001 and 2017: Trends in Total Household Vehicle Miles of Travel (HH VMT) 6000 Trends in HH VMT for Shopping 25,000 5000 20,000 4000 15,000 3000 10,000 2000 5,000 1000 0 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017 0 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017 Trends in HH VMT for Errands Trends in HH VMT for Social Recreational 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 0 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017 0 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017
Per Capita Vehicle Miles per Day 2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: PERSON TRAVEL 22 VMT for the younger people (16-34) in urban areas was the same as 2009: Average Daily VMT by People in Different Age Groups 50 40 30 1995 2001 20 2009 10 2017 0 16-24 25-34 35-44 45+ 16-24 25-34 35-44 45+ Urban Rural
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: PERSON TRAVEL 23 Since 1995, trip-making has declined significantly for all ages except over 65 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.2 2.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.5 2.8 3.4 4.5 4.2 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 Total Under 16 16 to 20 21 to 35 36 to 65 Over 65 1995 2001 2009 2017 Margin of Error
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: PERSON TRAVEL 24 Trends in VMT and PMT by Gender Trends in Vehicle and Non-Vehicle Miles of Travel per Day by Gender 45.0 16.4 Vehcile Miles Non-Vehicle Miles 40.9 39.5 35.7 14.0 17.2 19.0 x.x Total PMT/Day 31.5 32.8 14.7 16.8 28.6 26.9 22.3 16.7 16.8 16.0 2001 2009 2017 2001 2009 2017 Men Women
Annual Person Trips per Person 2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: PERSON TRAVEL 25 Men and women s travel rates have declined about the same amount: 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 Shopping and Errands Social and Recreational School/Church 200 0 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017 Men Women To or From Work
Number of Deliveries to the Household 2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: SPECIAL TOPICS The number of home deliveries to US households from on-line shopping doubled: 9 Number of Deliveries in Last 30 Days by Life Cycle 2009 and 2017 NHTS 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 All No Kids Kids 5-15 Kids 16-21 2009 Deliveries 2017 Delivieres Margin of Error
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: SPECIAL TOPICS 27 Everyone is shopping on-line more, and growth is notable in 65 and older: Percent of People with Deliveries from On-Line Shopping in the Last 30 days 100% 90% 80% 70% 3.5 3.6 2.7 4.0 3.5 3.0 2009 60% 50% 2.1 2.1 1.7 2.4 2.5 2.0 2017 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 67% 67% 59% 53% 51% 43% 43% 44% 0.7 46% 35% 37% 31% 34% 25% 18% 6% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Total 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 x.x Mean Deliveries in last month
Commute Travel Temporal Distribution Vehicle Use and Availability 28
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: Commute Travel The average commute in 2017 took 27.5 minutes (one-way) compared to 24,2 minutes in 2009. An average worker who travels to and from work five days a week spent 33 more minutes a week commuting in 2017 compared to 2009. U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 201 National Household Travel Survey. URL: http://nhts.ornl.gov.
Percent of Vehicle Trips 2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION 30 No real signs of peak-spreading the 2017 commutes are more peaked than previous 4.5% Distribution of Vehicle Trips by Trip Purpose and Start Time 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Midnight 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Noon 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Start Hour Commute Shopping & Errands School&Church Social&Recreational
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: VEHICLE USE AND AVAILABILITY 31 Autos are currently half the fleet, SUVs a growing share: Number of Vehicles by Type, in millions 144 165 176 201 211 223 xx=total Household Vehicles (millions) Motorcycle/Moped Pick-up 120 Van SUV Auto 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: VEHICLE USE AND AVAILABILITY 32 Newer vehicles are less likely to be autos: Distribution of Newer Vehicles by Vehicle Type Vehicles 2 Years Old or Newer Van, 4.3% Pick-Up, 11.7% Other, MotorCycle, 0.9% 1.8% Car, 46.4% SUV, 34.8%
2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends 33 Questions? Comments?