SATURDAY, JANUARY 10, 2015 DERBY COUNTDOWN CLICK AND JUMP TO DESIRED SECTION Sham Stakes CALCULATOR Photo by Nikki Sherman
PREVIEW Sham Preview: Calculator seeks elusive first win By Dan Illman Inaugurated in 2001, the Grade 3 Sham Stakes has produced some notable horses. Belmont Stakes hero Empire Maker finished second in the 2003 edition. Borrego, the eventual winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Pacific Classic, was the bridesmaid the following year. Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo finished third in the 2005 Sham to kick off his 3-year-old campaign. Travers winner Colonel John (1st, 2008), Breeders Cup Dirt Mile champ Tapizar (1st, 2011), BC Sprint winner Secret Circle (2nd, 2012), and two-time BC Dirt Mile victor Goldencents (1st, 2013) also are among the very good horses who competed in the Sham over the years. The Sham probably was more of a Kentucky Derby prep when it was contested at nine furlongs from 2001-10. The trip was shortened to 1 1/16 miles in 2011 and moved to this two-turn, one-mile distance the next season. CALCULATOR (7) likely will wind up as the betting favorite for this year s renewal. While only a maiden, Calculator has kept excellent company, finishing second behind the talented American Pharoah in both the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes. His last two Beyer Speed Figures are lengths faster than anything the rest of the Sham field has ever earned. Calculator s attributes are fairly obvious, but his training schedule has been anything but smooth since the FrontRunner. He was withdrawn from the Breeders Cup Juvenile due to a bruised foot and was forced to miss the Los Alamitos Futurity with an illness. It will be interesting to see if trainer Peter Miller has his charge fully cranked for his first start in almost four months. HERO TEN ALL (8) looks very promising for trainer Jeff Mullins. Second to eventual Los Alamitos Futurity winner Dortmund in his career debut sprinting, Hero Ten All broke through with a professional maiden win around two turns last month. The Rock Hard Ten colt was aided by a solid pace up front but showed some grit by rallying along the inside turning for home. He altered course to the 3 path in midstretch and gamely wore down the leader in the final furlong. Hero Ten All will need quick fractions to upend these, but he should be running hard in the stretch. ROCKINATTEN (3) was purchased privately following an open-lengths win at Gulfstream Park West on Oct. 26. Never off the board from three starts, Rockinatten improved drastically with the addition of blinkers, pressing the pace while three wide before drawing away from his overmatched rivals. It s questionable whether the field he whipped boasted much quality, however, and Rockinatten might have raced on the best part of the track while well off the rail throughout. Rockinatten stretches out around two turns for the first time in the Sham, but he should be up and on the pace under Rafael Bejarano. The gelding is from the female family of Pacific Classic and Pimlico Special winner Student Council. Rockinatten should get the mile, and he will be dangerous if allowed a free pass on the lead. ST. JOE BAY (1) should appreciate getting back to dirt. A romping winner of a $75,000 maiden claimer over this course and distance Oct. 17, St. Joe Bay was far from disgraced when third in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes while sprinting over Del Mar s Polytrack surface Nov. 15. In his most recent outing, St. Joe Bay ran a solid fourth in the Cecil B. DeMille Stakes on grass. St. Joe Bay has some speed. As Calculator s uncoupled stablemate, he could provide some company for Rockinatten at the head of affairs entering the first turn. Miller also trains ROCK SHANDY (5), a maiden winner on turf Nov. 7 and an even third in the Cecil B. DeMille. Rock Shandy s second dam, Queena, was a multiple Grade 1 winner going long on dirt. Perhaps Queena s presence in the pedigree will help him as he switches to dirt for the first time, but he is mostly bred for turf. UNBLUNTED (4) looked good in graduating in a sevenfurlong dash at Santa Anita on Oct. 18 and did not have a good trip when stretched around two turns in the Gold Rush Stakes over the Tapeta surface at Golden Gate Fields. He broke from the far outside in the Gold Rush, was five wide around the first turn and four wide swinging into the stretch. Unblunted had no chance, considering the ground loss. Forgiving handicappers might expect something more resembling his maiden win than the Gold Rush running line. PIONEEROF THE WEST (2), a gate-to-wire winner over Del Mar s Polytrack, makes the same turf-to-dirt move that resulted in a career-best Beyer (77) in a maiden affair at Santa Anita on Oct. 26. The colt is fast from the gate, but he might be best served by tracking the leaders while saving valuable ground. PAPACOOLPAPACOOL (6) tries dirt for the first time. A pacesetting winner at one mile on grass at Santa Anita on Sept. 27, Papacoolpapacool ran a decent sixth in the Cecil B. DeMille. There are some dirt influences on the bottom of his pedigree, and he shows a bullet work over this track.
ANALYSIS Sham Analysis By Dan Illman Distance: one mile on dirt Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 10-4-2-1 Pace scenario Early speed: Rockinatten, St. Joe Bay Pace pressers: Pioneerof the West, Papacoolpapacool Stalkers/midpack runners: Calculator, Unblunted, Rock Shandy Closers: Hero Ten All Pace analysis Expect a moderate-to-fast pace. Rockinatten showed good positional speed in three sprints in south Florida and should be forwardly placed, if not outright on the lead, under Rafael Bejarano. St. Joe Bay, the pacesetter in the Cecil B. DeMille Stakes on turf last time out, switches jockeys to the hustling Martin Pedroza and is another who can be close. Pioneerof the West and Papacoolpapacool both own victories in gate-to-wire fashion but would have to go much faster to grab the front here. Perhaps they ll stalk from the second flight. The probable favorite, Calculator, has good tactical speed and should find himself in midpack. A fast pace would aid his chances as well as those of Hero Ten All, who rallied from last to win his maiden at Los Alamitos. Formulator facts Calculator is not your average maiden. In the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes, he finished ahead of next-out Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red (104 Beyer Speed Figure) and next-out stakes winner Lord Nelson (92 Beyer). Distance has always been the question with Calculator. His sire, In Summation, only wins with 7 percent of his route performers. Although Rockinatten won his maiden by open lengths at Gulfstream Park West, only one of the six runners from that race managed to crack the trifecta next out. That was Starship Explorer, who moved to turf for his 65-Beyer graduation. The Sham Stakes will be Rock Shandy s first race on dirt. His second dam, Queena, was a very successful runner on the main track for Shug McGaughey in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Perhaps those bloodlines will help him handle the new surface. Papacoolpapacool also has a hint of dirt pedigree. One half-sibling, Calvello, received a 94 Beyer on the surface. Another, Dehaven, was stakes-placed on dirt. Selections 1. Rockinatten 2. Calculator 3. Hero Ten All SIXTH RACE Probable Post 3:00 PST 1 Mile. 3-Year-Olds. Sham (Grade 3). Purse: $100,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 7 Calculator...Trujillo E...118...8-5 3 Rockinatten...Bejarano R...118...7-2 8 Hero Ten All...Baze T C...118...4-1 4 Unblunted...Talamo J...118...6-1 1 St. Joe Bay...Pedroza M A...118...8-1 5 Rock Shandy...Espinoza V...118...8-1 6 Papacoolpapacool...Perez F H...118...8-1 2 Pioneerof the West...Nakatani C S...118...12-1
CLOSER LOOK Sham Closer Look ST. JOE BAY This youngster probably has already exceeded expectations. He graduated on this surface, but it was on the drop into a maiden claimer, and he lost a bit of ground in his first start against winners. He got away with the moderate splits last time and still backed up. Trainer Miller is 0 for 5 over the last five years with turfto-dirt runners in graded stakes, but two ran in the money, including Appealing Tale, who was 31-1 and got beat only 1 3/4 lengths. This runner seems on top of his game when sent along early and may have to fight hard for the lead. He needs his very best effort. PIONEEROF THE WEST The connections of this colt thought enough of him to try a stakes race as a maiden in the second start. He was getting to the winner when beaten a length in his only start on dirt but only beat five foes in the maiden win. He was a brief factor last time in the turf stakes but wilted when the real racing began. The sophomore has a right to take to the dirt here since his sire won the Santa Anita Derby and sibling Carlsbad Mountain graduated on this surface at this very distance. Trainer Casse is 1 for 13 over the last five years with turf-to-dirt runners in graded stakes. That runner paid more than $75, and four others ran in the money at odds between 3-2 and 72-1, and the 72-1 shot was beaten only a neck. This racer needs a rebound run, but Nakatani was aloft for the lone win. ROCKINATTEN Dueled into submission in his first two starts, this runner finally broke through last time going seven furlongs and did it going away at Gulfstream Park West. He ran his last furlong in 13.22 seconds. He has been pointed for this race and seems to have taken to the local surface. This also is a private sale, as Niall Brennan and Ralph Nicks owned him for the first three starts. His sire was a proven dirt router. His dam was unraced, and this is her first to run. Three exited the Sept. 19 race to graduate next out, and the winner repeated in a $75,000 grass stakes with a 68 Beyer Speed Figure. Trainer O Neill, who won this race in 2013 with Goldencents, is 2 for 14 over the last five years with sprint-to-route runners in graded stakes, and two ran second, one beaten a head. This invader might like it here. UNBLUNTED Proven locally, but the stakes debut last time leaves much to be desired. He was caught wide when stalking last time but just had nothing left late. Sire was a proven router, as was his dam, but the three siblings who attempted to route were out of the money nine times combined. Trainer McCarthy, a former assistant to Todd Pletcher, knows a little about this race. His trainee Ravel won in 2007 and was also going from synthetic to dirt. Trainer is also 1 for 4 with synthetic-to-dirt runners over the last five years. This colt must improve off the last effort. ROCK SHANDY This runner will be making his first start on dirt and has a right to love it, as his sire won multiple Grade 1 races routing on dirt. His dam lost twice, and the two siblings who routed on dirt were out of the money in both of those attempts. With three runners in here, trainer Miller will need to instruct his riders as to the preferred way for the race to unfold. There is room for improvement here, but this sophomore might need the race of his life. PAPACOOLPAPACOOL Here is another who has raced on turf exclusively. His sire won routing on the synthetic but was eighth in his only dirt attempt. His dam was a proven router and also dropped Calvello, who won multiple routes on dirt and banked almost $400,000. This racer showed talent from Day 1 and was far from disgraced in his stakes debut, when beaten less than a length. And a nice horse beat him last time, as Conquest Typhoon had already won a Grade 2 at Woodbine and has earned more than $350,000. Trainer Mullins is 3 for 37 over the last five years with turf-to-dirt runners, and 14 others ran in the money. If one figures that the racer just needed his last race, one could build a case for a move forward. CALCULATOR Talented but still a maiden, this colt was aiming for the Breeders Cup Juvenile but was forced to miss it with a sore foot, and then an illness kept him out of the Los Alamitos Futurity. The two races that catch the eye are the losses to American Pharoah, who very well could be named the top juvenile male of 2014 at the Eclipse Awards on Jan. 17. And he finished in front of Texas Red, who won the BC Juvenile. The fourth-place finisher in his last took a $101,000 stakes here next out. As far as stamina is concerned, his sire was a pure sprinter but was beaten a nose going 1 1/16 miles. His dam was unraced, and the lone sibling took one sprint. He has trained forwardly for this, including the best-of-32 work last Sunday, which was two ticks faster than the next-best work on the tab, a 1:12 gate move. If he can repeat either of his last two Beyers, he ll be a handful. HERO TEN ALL Considering that this colt was off slowly and was beaten by a nice horse in his debut, that race was not all that bad. The winner of his debut went on to take a $75,000 optional claimer and then got up by a head in the Los Alamitos Futurity with a 91 Beyer. And three runners exited the opener to graduate next out. Trainer Mullins can keep them going good once they are thriving, as he has won with 19 percent of his last-out winners over the last five years. The concern is the post, as he could be compromised being out this far. Brian Mulligan
Road to the 2015 Kentucky Derby DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK... WINNER...BEYER...1ST... 2ND... 3RD...4TH Sept. 6... Iroquois... 1 1/16M... Churchill Downs...Lucky Player... 82... 10...4... 2...1 Sept. 27... FrontRunner... 1 1/16M... Santa Anita...American Pharoah... 101... 10...4... 2...1 Oct. 4... Breeders Futurity... 1 1/16M... Keeneland...Carpe Diem... 93... 10...4... 2...1 Oct. 4... Champagne... 1M... Belmont...Daredevil... 107... 10...4... 2...1 Oct. 5... Grey... 1 1/16M (S)... Woodbine...International Star... 66... 10...4... 2...1 Nov. 1... BC Juvenile... 1 1/16M... Santa Anita...Texas Red... 104... 10...4... 2...1 Nov. 22... Delta Downs Jackpot... 1 1/16M... Delta Downs...Ocho Ocho Ocho... 90... 10...4... 2...1 Nov. 29... Remsen... 1 1/8M... Aqueduct...Leave the Light On... 90... 10...4... 2...1 Nov. 29... Kentucky Jockey Club... 1 1/16M... Churchill Downs...El Kabeir... 94... 10...4... 2...1 Dec. 20... Los Alamitos Futurity... 1 1/16M... Los Alamitos...Dortmund... 91... 10...4... 2...1 Jan. 3... Jerome... 1 mile 70 yds... Aqueduct...El Kabeir... 95... 10...4... 2...1 Jan. 10... Sham... 1M... Santa Anita... 10...4... 2...1 Jan. 17... Lecomte... 1M 70 yds... Fair Grounds... 10...4... 2...1 Jan. 19... Smarty Jones... 1M... Oaklawn Park... 10...4... 2...1 Jan. 24... Holy Bull... 1 1/16M... Gulfstream... 10...4... 2...1 Feb. 7... Withers... 1 1/16M... Aqueduct... 10...4... 2...1 Feb. 7... Robert B. Lewis... 1 1/16M... Santa Anita Park... 10...4... 2...1 Feb. 14... El Camino Real Derby... 1 1/8M (S)... Golden Gate... 10...4... 2...1 Feb. 16... Southwest... 1 1/16M... Oaklawn Park... 10...4... 2...1
Kentucky Derby Championship Series DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK...1ST... 2ND...3RD...4TH Feb. 21... Risen Star... 1 1/16M... Fair Grounds... 50... 20... 10...5 Feb. 21... Fountain of Youth... 1 1/16M... Gulfstream... 50... 20... 10...5 March 7... Gotham... 1 1/16M... Aqueduct... 50... 20... 10...5 March 7... Tampa Bay Derby... 1 1/16M... Tampa Bay Downs... 50... 20... 10...5 March 7... San Felipe... 1 1/16M... Santa Anita... 50... 20... 10...5 March 14... Rebel... 1 1/16M... Oaklawn... 50... 20... 10...5 March 21... Spiral... 1 1/8M (S)... Turfway... 50... 20... 10...5 March 22... Sunland Derby... 1 1/8M... Sunland Park... 50... 20... 10...5 March 28... Florida Derby... 1 1/8M... Gulfstream Park... 100... 40... 20...10 March 28... UAE Derby... 1 3/16M... Meydan... 100... 40... 20...10 March 28... Louisiana Derby... 1 1/8M... Fair Grounds... 100... 40... 20...10 April 4... Wood Memorial... 1 1/8M... Aqueduct... 100... 40... 20...10 April 4... Santa Anita Derby... 1 1/8M... Santa Anita... 100... 40... 20...10 April 11... Arkansas Derby... 1 1/8M... Oaklawn Park... 100... 40... 20...10 April 11... Blue Grass... 1 1/8M... Keeneland... 100... 40... 20...10 April 18... Lexington... 1 1/16M... Keeneland... 10... 4... 2...1
Kentucky Derby 2015 Point Standings (through Jan. 7) NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS EARNINGS 1... El Kabeir... John Terranova... 21... $330,792 2... Carpe Diem... Todd Pletcher... 14... $660,000 3... Texas Red... Keith Desormeaux... 12... $1,136,000 4... International Star... Mike Maker... 11... $130,979 5... Ocho Ocho Ocho... Jim Cassidy... 10... $660,000 6... Mr. Z... D. Wayne Lukas... 10... $473,326 7... American Pharoah... Bob Baffert... 10... $360,000 8... Daredevil... Todd Pletcher... 10... $300,000 8... Dortmund... Bob Baffert... 10... $300,000 10... Leave the Light On... Chad Brown... 10... $240,000 11... Lucky Player... Steve Asmussen... 10... $96,481 12... Upstart... Rick Violette... 6... $300,000 13... Bold Conquest... Steve Asmussen... 6... $72,176 14... Conquest Typhoon... Mark Casse... 4... $311,827 15... Imperia... Kiaran McLaughlin... 4... $163,804 16... Calculator... Peter Miller... 4... $120,000 17... Firing Line... Simon Callaghan... 4... $100,000 NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS EARNINGS 19... Nasa... John Servis... 4... $40,000 20... Far Right... Ron Moquett... 2... $115,906 21... The Truth or Else... Kenny McPeek... 2... $76,000 212... Hashtag Bourbon... Kellyn Gorder... 2... $74,117 23... Keen Ice... Dale Romans... 2... $55,000 24... Hollywood Critic... Barbara Minshall... 2... $35,528 25... Eagle... Neil Howard... 2... $21,902 26... General Bellamy... William Mott... 2... $20,000 27... The Great War... Wesley Ward... 1... $170,702 28... Lord Nelson... Bob Baffert... 1... $84,571 29... Danny Boy... Dale Romans... 1... $55,544 30... Saratoga Heater... Al Stall, Jr... 1... $50,000 31... Bench Warrant... John Sadler... 1... $30,000 32... Tough Customer... Wayne Catalano... 1... $25,000 33... Classy Class... Kiaran McLaughlin... 1... $20,000 34... Ackeret... Kiaran McLaughlin... 1... $13,000 35... Flashaway... John C. Oxley... 1... $8,999 18... Frosted... Kiaran McLaughlin... 4... $80,000