National Survey Results 18 General Election Likely Voters Political Environment, Trends & Analysis October 18 John McLaughlin On the web www.mclaughlinonline.com
Part One Political Environment 2
Direction: United States Time Series 80 70 Right Direction Wrong Track 43 0 3
70 0 43 Direction: United States Right Direction Wrong Track DK/Ref. 7 East 39 55 Midwest 41 48 South 45 49 West 45 Cont. Obama Pols. 16 80 Change Direction 74 Approve Trump 82 12 Disapprove Trump 5 88 Approve GOP Majority 82 13 Disapprove GOP Majority 14 81 Favorable Trump 84 11 Unfavorable Trump 6 88 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 13 82 Vote Pres. 16 Trump 81 13 Vote Cong. 18 GOP 78 16 Vote Cong. 18 DEM 13 83 Vote Cong. 18 UND 27 49 Republican 80 16 Democrat 16 79 Independent 35 53 Liberal 23 74 Moderate 32 57 Conservative 70 24 No College Degree 41 College Graduate 45 White 48 45 African- American 23 69 Hispanic 34 57 Under 55 39 52 Over 55 48 48 Married 53 42 Single 36 57 Men 45 Women 37 54 R W 4
Generally Speaking, would you like President Donald Trump and Congress to? Continue the policies of President Obama OR Change direction and move away from the polices of President Obama Time Series 70 Continue Change Direction 46 44 0 5
70 0 Generally Speaking, would you like President Donald Trump and Congress to? Continue the policies of President Obama OR Change direction and move away from the policies of President Obama 44 46 Continue Obama Policies Change Direction DK/Ref. Cont. Change East 44 48 Midwest 36 South 46 45 West 49 Cont. Obama Pols. 0 0 Change Direction 0 0 Approve Trump 14 81 Disapprove Trump 74 12 Approve GOP Majority 16 80 Disapprove GOP Majority 69 21 Favorable Trump 13 82 Unfavorable Trump 75 13 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 80 8 Vote Pres. 16 Trump 86 Vote Cong. 18 GOP 11 86 Vote Cong. 18 DEM 78 Vote Cong. 18 UND 34 33 Republican 13 84 Democrat 79 Independent 36 46 Liberal 80 14 Moderate 46 36 Conservative 15 80 No College Degree 44 44 College Graduate 44 48 White 35 55 African- American 78 Hispanic 62 31 Under 55 48 Over 55 39 53 Married 39 52 Single 52 Men 42 51 Women 45 42 6
Job Rating: Donald Trump Time Series 70 Approve Disapprove 48 7
70 0 48 28 21 12 38 APP. Strongly Smwt DISAPP. Smwt Strongly DK/Ref. Job Rating: Donald Trump 2 App. Disapp. East 43 56 Midwest 49 48 South 51 47 West 46 51 Cont. Obama Pols. 15 84 Change Direction 86 13 Approve Trump 0 0 Disapprove Trump 0 0 Approve GOP Majority 90 9 Disapprove GOP Majority 17 83 Favorable Trump 97 2 Unfavorable Trump 5 95 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 12 87 Vote Pres. 16 Trump 93 6 Vote Cong. 18 GOP 88 11 Vote Cong. 18 DEM 12 87 Vote Cong. 18 UND 37 52 Republican 88 11 Democrat 17 81 Independent 43 54 Liberal 22 76 Moderate 39 57 Conservative 78 21 No College Degree 48 College Graduate 49 White 55 44 African- American 17 76 Hispanic 37 62 Under 55 45 52 Over 55 53 47 Married 57 Single 58 Men 52 46 Women 45 53 8
Opinion: Donald Trump Time Series 70 Favorable Unfavorable 47 9
70 0 47 25 Opinion: Donald Trump 22 11 39 FAV. Very Smwt UNFAV. Smwt Very NO OPIN. 4 Fav. Unfav. East 42 57 Midwest 47 49 South 49 47 West 47 49 Cont. Obama Pols. 14 85 Change Direction 84 14 Approve Trump 94 5 Disapprove Trump 2 95 Approve GOP Majority 88 11 Disapprove GOP Majority 15 83 Favorable Trump 0 0 Unfavorable Trump 0 0 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 87 Vote Pres. 16 Trump 91 7 Vote Cong. 18 GOP 87 11 Vote Cong. 18 DEM 11 87 Vote Cong. 18 UND 33 49 Republican 87 12 Democrat 15 82 Independent 41 52 Liberal 22 77 Moderate 36 57 Conservative 78 21 No College Degree 46 49 College Graduate 48 White 54 43 African- American 18 74 Hispanic 35 62 Under 55 43 52 Over 55 52 47 Married 56 41 Single 39 57 Men 51 45 Women 43 53
1/14 2/14 3/14 4/14 5/14 6/14 8/14 9/14 /14 11/14 1/15 2/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 12/16 1/17 2//17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /18 Generic Ballot: U.S. Congress Time Series Democrat Republican Undecided 46 44 0 11
70 0 44 GOP Generic Ballot: U.S. Congress 46 29 31 8 7 5 Def. Prob. Lean DEM Def. Prob. Lean UND. GOP DEM. UND. East 43 51 6 Midwest 43 16 South 46 47 7 West 43 46 11 Cont. Obama Pols. 11 81 8 Change Direction 83 7 Approve Trump 81 12 7 Disapprove Trump 80 Approve GOP Majority 87 3 Disapprove GOP Majority 13 78 9 Favorable Trump 82 11 7 Unfavorable Trump 80 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 5 89 6 Vote Pres. 16 Trump 89 5 6 Vote Cong. 18 GOP 0 0 0 Vote Cong. 18 DEM 0 0 0 Vote Cong. 18 UND 0 0 0 Republican 93 6 1 Democrat 6 89 5 Independent 37 38 24 Liberal 16 78 5 Moderate 29 53 18 Conservative 82 14 5 No College Degree 42 45 13 College Graduate 47 47 6 White 53 37 African- American 81 9 Hispanic 33 59 8 Under 55 41 47 11 Over 55 48 44 8 Married 53 39 8 Single 37 53 Men 42 7 Women 39 49 12 12
Job Rating: GOP Majority in Congress Time Series 70 Approve Disapprove 51 41 0 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /18 13
70 0 Job Rating: GOP Majority in Congress 41 14 27 51 18 33 APP. Strongly Smwt DISAPP. Smwt Strongly DK/Ref. 7 App. Disapp. East 57 Midwest 41 South 42 West 42 Cont. Obama Pols. 15 80 Change Direction 73 23 Approve Trump 78 17 Disapprove Trump 8 85 Approve GOP Majority 0 0 Disapprove GOP Majority 0 0 Favorable Trump 78 17 Unfavorable Trump 9 85 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 12 81 Vote Pres. 16 Trump 79 16 Vote Cong. 18 GOP 82 15 Vote Cong. 18 DEM 9 86 Vote Cong. 18 UND 13 47 Republican 81 16 Democrat 12 81 Independent 33 54 Liberal 24 74 Moderate 27 59 Conservative 71 25 No College Degree 38 51 College Graduate 46 White 48 45 African- American 16 73 Hispanic 31 63 Under 55 51 Over 55 43 51 Married 51 43 Single 34 Men 45 49 Women 38 52 14
1/15 3/15 4/15 5/15 6/15 7/15 8/15 9/15 /15 11/15 1/16 2/16 3/16 5/16 11/16 12/16 1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /18 Would you say you most favor a smaller government with fewer services or a larger government with many services? Time Series 70 Smaller Larger 51 31 15
70 0 51 Job Rating: Would you say you most favor a smaller government with fewer services or a larger Donald Trump government with many services? 31 18 Smaller Gov't Larger Gov't DK/Ref. Smaller Larger East 47 38 Midwest 57 23 South 46 34 West 56 29 Cont. Obama Pols. 36 47 Change Direction 71 18 Approve Trump 67 21 Disapprove Trump 37 42 Approve GOP Majority 66 22 Disapprove GOP Majority 41 41 Favorable Trump 67 Unfavorable Trump 37 42 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 31 47 Vote Pres. 16 Trump 70 17 Vote Cong. 18 GOP 73 17 Vote Cong. 18 DEM 33 47 Vote Cong. 18 UND 37 19 Republican 69 18 Democrat 35 47 Independent 51 26 Liberal 31 55 Moderate 46 27 Conservative 72 17 No College Degree 51 28 College Graduate 52 35 White 56 26 African- American 28 43 Hispanic 48 39 Under 55 47 34 Over 55 57 26 Married 57 29 Single 47 34 Men 28 Women 43 33 16
Part Two Issue Analysis 17
Top Priority of President Trump and Congress Time Series 1/17 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /1 Rep Dem Ind Lib Mod Con App. 8 s DJT Disapp. Men Women DJT ECONOMIC 45 54 46 47 42 45 48 48 47 43 44 46 45 43 45 47 45 28 55 53 56 52 33 58 44 47 Creating Jobs 33 37 32 32 28 28 31 28 32 29 29 32 28 26 28 31 28 13 33 37 34 34 16 19 37 28 28 Reducing Taxes 12 17 15 15 14 18 17 15 14 15 15 17 17 17 18 18 15 22 16 22 18 15 14 22 17 19 SECURITY 33 37 37 38 39 36 34 35 36 39 36 38 35 37 56 27 29 24 54 52 23 38 36 Nat l Sec./Terror 23 18 24 24 24 27 25 22 23 23 28 26 25 21 24 23 22 27 19 14 12 18 29 25 17 18 22 Building Wall/Mexico 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 4 4 6 4 6 6 8 8 9 7 8 16 3 6 4 4 16 15 1 11 6 Stop/Mideast Refugees 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 3 5 6 9 2 7 5 5 7 2 7 5 Tear up Iran Nuke Deal. 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 3 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 REPEAL/REPLACE OBAMACARE 16 11 15 11 12 12 9 11 12 9 9 9 9 15 4 8 5 8 12 13 5 9 9 D.K./REFUSED 6 5 7 6 5 5 4 7 6 6 7 5 6 8 8 7 8 9 2 14 15 9 4 2 14 9 9 18
Most Important Issue 3/17 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 9/18 /18 Rep Dem Ind Lib Mod Cons App. DJT Disapp. Wo- Men DJT Men CONOMIC 38 38 37 36 37 38 37 36 34 36 35 35 35 34 33 32 38 29 36 35 34 34 35 33 Improving the Economy 14 13 13 14 13 11 14 12 12 14 12 12 11 13 13 12 14 8 13 12 13 11 13 11 12 Jobs/Unemployment 12 11 12 8 9 11 7 8 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 8 9 7 7 7 8 Wasteful Gov t pending 8 6 6 7 8 7 8 9 7 7 6 7 8 7 8 7 5 7 7 5 6 8 7 7 Reduce Budget/Deficit 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 5 7 4 5 6 6 5 6 4 Hold Line/Taxes 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 OCIAL 29 24 25 29 27 29 29 28 27 29 27 27 28 23 26 42 32 22 38 32 29 Protect Medicare 14 12 11 13 14 16 12 13 12 13 15 11 16 11 12 14 12 21 22 13 9 13 15 Reform Healthcare 7 6 7 9 9 11 9 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 8 9 11 8 Improving Education 8 6 7 6 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 7 7 2 7 9 2 4 9 8 6 ECURITY 17 24 22 19 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 17 19 18 19 32 14 8 15 31 32 6 17 Fix Immigration 3 6 4 4 4 5 5 4 6 7 6 7 6 9 7 8 15 4 5 4 6 14 14 2 9 7 Nat l Sec./Terror 9 11 11 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 9 7 14 3 5 2 5 14 12 3 8 7 Defeat/Destroy ISIS 5 8 8 5 6 6 4 5 2 2 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 2 4 4 5 2 3 3 ONESTY/ NTEGRITY/D.C. 11 13 13 12 13 12 14 17 14 15 16 15 17 16 14 15 17 19 12 12 11 18 11 17.K./REFUSED 3 4 3 4 3 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 4 3 2 2 4 2 4 2 1 3 2 4 19
Current Opinion of the U.S. Economy Time Series NOT RECESSION 3/17 4/1 7 5/1 7 8/1 7 /17 11/17 12/17 1/1 8 2/1 8 3/1 8 4/1 8 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /1 8 Re p De m Ind Lib Mo d Cons App. DJT Disapp. DJT Wo Me me n n 54 54 54 61 58 62 64 64 64 65 62 66 67 66 65 65 64 81 56 57 54 79 77 54 71 58 Getting Better 34 31 34 34 38 41 43 42 36 42 38 41 44 72 18 32 21 29 66 68 14 46 35 Getting Worse 19 23 24 26 24 25 23 21 22 26 26 26 24 29 24 22 24 9 38 25 39 25 13 8 25 24 RECESSION 35 33 34 29 27 26 27 23 23 26 23 22 25 25 24 23 13 29 28 27 28 14 16 27 Getting Better 22 22 19 17 17 16 13 14 14 13 13 13 14 13 14 14 12 11 14 14 14 12 11 Getting Worse 13 11 14 11 14 11 13 13 13 9 11 11 12 3 17 14 19 14 4 3 21 7 15 D.K./REFUSED 11 13 12 11 12 11 9 13 11 12 11 11 9 11 12 6 16 15 11 18 7 7 15 9 15 15 GETTING BETTER GETTING WORSE 57 53 51 53 54 57 56 53 48 53 56 51 54 57 52 82 29 46 31 43 76 82 24 58 46 32 32 38 38 38 36 36 34 32 36 36 33 36 32 36 12 55 39 58 39 17 11 61 33 39 D.K./REFUSED 11 14 12 11 12 11 9 13 11 12 11 11 9 11 12 6 16 15 11 18 7 7 15 9 15 Net Diff. 25 21 12 13 13 18 18 24 24 17 8 16 23 11 19 26 16 69-26 6-26 5 59 71-37 25 7
Do you approve or disapprove of repealing and replacing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare? -Time Series- 70 Approve Disapprove 51 41 21
70 0 Do you approve or disapprove of repealing and replacing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare? 51 APP. 33 19 41 15 26 Strongly Smwt DISAPP. Smwt Strongly DK/Ref. 7 App. Disapp. East 48 Midwest 41 South 52 West 53 39 Cont. Obama Pols. 24 71 Change Direction 83 13 Approve Trump 85 11 Disapprove Trump 19 71 Approve GOP Majority 85 13 Disapprove GOP Majority 27 65 Favorable Trump 86 11 Unfavorable Trump 21 71 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 23 69 Vote Pres. 16 Trump 86 9 Vote Cong. 18 GOP 85 11 Vote Cong. 18 DEM 22 71 Vote Cong. 18 UND 38 37 Republican 86 11 Democrat 26 66 Independent 44 45 Liberal 29 66 Moderate 43 45 Conservative 78 18 No College Degree 49 42 College Graduate 54 White 57 37 African- American 29 57 Hispanic 43 47 Under 55 48 43 Over 55 55 39 Married 59 34 Single 45 48 Men 55 39 Women 48 42 22
Part Three Social Media Usage 23
Do you follow Donald Trump on Twitter, Instagram and/or have you like his page on Facebook, meaning his posts show up on your newsfeed? - Time Series- 35 TOTAL Follow/Twitter Like/Facebook Follow/Instagram 25 25 15 5 0 15 12 7 4/17 5/17 8/17 /17 11/17 12/17 1/18 2/18 3/18 4/18 5/18 6/18 7/18 8/18 9/18 /18 24
Do you follow Donald Trump on Twitter, Instagram and/or have you like his page on Facebook, meaning his posts show up on your newsfeed? 80 70 0 25 12 15 7 75 FOLLOW Facebook Twitter Instagram NONE Follow/ Like Trump Not Follow Approve 76% 39% Disapprove 22% 59% Follow None East 26 74 Midwest 18 82 South 70 West 21 79 Cont. Obama Pols. 19 81 Change Direction 33 67 Approve Trump 39 61 Disapprove Trump 11 89 Approve GOP Majority 42 58 Disapprove GOP Majority 12 88 Favorable Trump Unfavorable Trump 11 89 Vote Pres. 16 Clinton 14 86 Vote Pres. 16 Trump Vote Cong. 18 GOP 39 61 Vote Cong. 18 DEM 13 87 Vote Cong. 18 UND 13 87 Republican 41 59 Democrat 17 83 Independent 16 83 Liberal 25 74 Moderate 16 84 Conservative 33 67 No College Degree 24 76 College Graduate 25 74 White 26 74 African- American 16 84 Hispanic 26 74 Under 55 31 69 Over 55 17 83 Married 27 73 Single 25 75 Men 28 72 Women 21 79 25
From the following list, which social media networks do you use? Tot Rep Dem Ind Lib Mod Cons App. DJT Disapp. DJT Under 55 Over 55 Men Women Facebook 80 78 81 80 82 82 76 80 81 82 76 73 85 Twitter 31 35 37 31 28 33 31 41 19 32 31 Instagram 35 42 33 46 37 25 31 49 17 Google+ 27 26 31 25 31 21 28 27 32 21 26 28 Pinterest 29 31 26 33 27 29 29 32 26 13 43 Linked-In 24 26 25 28 21 25 24 24 26 22 26 23 Snapchat 19 18 21 18 25 14 19 31 4 16 22 WhatsApp 9 15 6 17 9 6 9 11 14 4 11 9 Reddit 9 7 9 11 7 8 13 4 8 Tumblr 8 7 9 8 13 7 6 6 12 2 9 7 Periscope 2 2 3 1 4 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 2 Other 3 1 4 5 4 3 2 2 4 2 4 3 3 None 8 9 6 8 6 7 7 7 5 12 11 5 26
18 Likely General Election Voter Profile Party Total Age Total Race Total Republican 33 18-29 15 White 71 Democrat 36-17 African American 12 Independent 31 41-55 25 Hispanic 11 Ideology 56-65 23 Asian 4 Liberal 26 Over 65 Gender Moderate 39 Male 47 Conservative 35 Female 53 27
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