www.againstthecrowd.co.uk Flat Season 2017 Winning Profiles
Page 1 Key trends point to big-race winners The big-race narrative unfolds across the British flat season in a series of races designed to find the best of the best in specific divisions. The 2000 Guineas and the 1000 Guineas run early in May at Newmarket are designed to find the best of the 3yo milers. The Derby and the Oaks run at Epsom on the first weekend in June are designed to find the best 12-furlong colts and fillies from the classic generation. Later in the season at Doncaster, the St Leger provides an additional test of stamina and sets out to find the best of the 3yo stayers. Races like the Eclipse, the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Arc De Triomphe in France provide top-level G1 races that set the younger horses against their older counterparts and set out to establish the best horses across the generations. These races are difficult to read. All the most talented horses in each division at least those which are fit tend to show up. All the major yards are represented. Every single runner is trying. A horse can run the race of its life in one of these big races and it can still get beaten. So how do we solve these betting puzzles? It s never easy to solve these races but help is at hand in the form of historical evidence. Over the years, specific types of horses tend to come out on top time and time again in the biggest races. The winners tend to share certain characteristics and credentials. They have similar qualifications.
Page 2 They have achieved similar things and met similar yardsticks. Their careers have been constructed around common themes. Their respective campaigns have similar and consistent features. They meet the same broad criterion. They tick the same boxes. They measure up similarly to a wider statistical profile. Conversely, horses that fail to meet the criteria laid down by these long-standing trends tend to fall short. It is very fair to say that trends will not always point you directly to a winner at least not on their own. But they will help you split a field into the horses that fit the winning trends most closely and those who match them least. And that information can help you reach betting decisions. No horse will meet every trend in every race. But we can take a subjective view and weigh up one thing against another. We can figure out which trends we think are most important against what else we know. We might discard some trends. With others, we might forgive a horse for not meeting the criteria for whatever reason. The point I m making is that trends are instructive and can direct and focus the way we look at or go about finding angles on specific races. In this report, you will find comprehensive stats for all the biggest G1 races set to be run across the 2017 flat season the races where year-on-year the trends most frequently remain consistent. I call these documents Winning Race Profiles and they are part of the approach I take to finding value bets in the big races.
Page 3 These Winning Race Profiles are a useful tool. That s why I compile them. That s why I keep them up to date year on year. That s why I use them alongside my other methods in my own analysis of the big races. And that s why I m handing them over to you. They don t represent a magic winner-finding system. It isn t a case of A + B + C + D = winner. But it is good data nevertheless much of which you won t find elsewhere. Take a good look at the key stats for any of the individual races. Isolate those that seem strongest or most important to you. Then measure the horses set to go to post in this season s renewal against that statistical checklist. See how they measure up as potential candidates. It s a very instructive process at the end of which, at the very least, you will have very clear ideas on the strengths and potential flaws in each of the horses set to run. That s the kind of information and insight that large portions of the market are completely unaware of. Considering those are the people you are betting against when the big races get underway, it is clear the information contained in our Winning Race Profiles delivers a very real knowledge edge. What next? There is no standard right or wrong way forward. It is a case of each to his own. Some of my readers back the top scorer on the Profile. That s fine. Other s use the Profiles to identify short-priced horses with flaws so that they can oppose them either by laying them on the exchanges or backing one or more of their opponents. Personally, I use my Winning Race Profiles as a value-finding tool. I am always most interested in the horses that tick a lot of the right Profile boxes but which are being over-looked by the wider market.
Page 4 I m a contrarian punter. That s the way I play. I ve had good days where I ve backed big winners at big prices. And I ve had plenty of losing days too. I expect those losing days. Losing days are an inevitable consequence of how I play the game. For me it s a long-term affair. In seeking out value bets I aim to back sufficient winners at sufficiently good prices to get ahead of the game over time. How you use the information, and how you seek to apply it in the betting markets, is pretty much up to you. We look at it as our job to load the gun with bullets. Where you point it and when you fire is your business. All I hope is that you find the information useful and if you use it to bag a winner during the 2017 flat season, then so much the better. Let us know how you get on. Best wishes, Nick Pullen May 2017
Page 5 The Profile of a 2000 Guineas winner. The 2000 Guineas is a Group 1 race for 3yo colts and fillies contested over the straight mile at Newmarket. Weights are at a level 9-00. Fillies benefit from the 3lb allowance. The table below highlights the last 10 winners of the 2000 Guineas, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of hurdle runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and trainer. Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Hdl R Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer 2016 Galileo Gold C GB 3 110 5 209 110 85 14/1 Hugo Palmer 2015 Gleneagles C IRE 3 116 6 209 116 83 4/1 F A P O Brien 2014 Night Of Thunder C IRE 3 109 3 21 111 87 40/1 Richard Hannon 2013 Dawn Approach C IRE 3 124 6 203 123 118 11/8 F Jim Bolger 2012 Camelot C GB 3 119 2 196 118 90 15/8 F A P O Brien 2011 Frankel C GB 3 126 5 14 126 124 1/2 F Sir Henry Cecil 2010 Makfi C GB 3 0 1 23 110 45 33/1 M Delzangles 2009 Sea The Stars C IRE 3 112 3 216 112 87 8/1 John M Oxx 2008 Henrythenavigator C USA 3 0 4 252 115 110 11/1 A P O Brien 2007 Cockney Rebel C IRE 3 115 3 238 111 110 25/1 G A Huffer A performance worth 124 on the Racing Post rating (RPR) scale has been good enough to win an average renewal of this race since the turn of the Century. George Washington, Frankel and Dawn Approach are amongst the short list of recent winners who excelled beyond that level in their respective victories. Yards with form Yard followers will be looking in only one direction towards Ballydoyle. The last 39 runners saddled by Aidan O Brien have produced 6 winners and an additional 3 horses that placed. Jim Bolger is 1-2-6. The Hannon outfit 32-1-7. Bloodlines of note Kingmambo s 2 representatives in the race over the last 17 years both won. Galileo s 9 runners have produced two winners and 3 additional place finishes. Progeny of Dubawi have the makings of what could become an interesting record 4 runners to date produced 2 winners and 2 places. Danehill has two winners from his last 6 runners.
Page 6 Market pointers Twelve of the last 17 favorites got turned over but 9 of the last 17 winners did emerge from the top 3 in the market. Just four winners were sent off at odds bigger than 11s since 2000 (Night Of Thunder was a massive outlier in 2014 at 40s). I ve studied the last 17 renewals of the 2000 Guineas and I ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year s field. Here s what I discovered. Key Statistical Pointers All the last 17 winners had won at least one race All were progeny of a sire that had won a G1 when racing All the last 17 winners had appeared at 7f or 8f last time out 16 were progeny of a sire with a Stamina Index figure of 8.8+ (13 were progeny of a sire with a Stamina Index figure of 9.1+) 16 had raced at least twice 16 had a strike-rate of 50%+ 16 had scored a career-best of at least 110 on the RPR scale (all hitting that level at 7f or 8f) 16 had scored career-best RPR in one of last 2 races 15 had won at 7f or 8f (all 15 had a strike-rate of 50%+ at those trips) 15 had been foaled before April 14 had scored an RPR of 85+ on racing debut 14 had raced no more than 5 times 13 had won on racing debut 13 had never finished outside the first 3 13 had already won a Group race 13 had run in a G1 or a G2 13 had won a race worth at least 30k to winning connections 13 had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure ranging from 0.10 to 0.57. get CD figures for this year s runners here
Page 7 12 had been first past the post last time out (Gleneagles had been disqualified last time out. The others had finished 2nd or 3rd) 12 had run in a G1 or a G2 at 7f or 8f 12 of the 13 to race at least 3 times had won at least twice 10 had posted a win in a G1 or G2 race 8 of the last 11 winners were making their seasonal reappearance 8 of the last 11 winners had appeared in a G1 or G2 last time out 6 of the 7 previous winners that had already run at Newmarket had won there None of the last 17 winners had raced beyond 8f None had run on all-weather
Page 8 The Profile of a 1000 Guineas winner. The 1000 Guineas is a Group 1 contest for 3yo fillies contested over the straight mile at Newmarket. Weights are set at the standard at 9-00. The table below highlights the last 10 winners of the 1000 Guineas, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of hurdle runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and trainer. Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Chs R Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer 2016 Minding F IRE 3 120 5 205 119 108 11/10 F A P O Brien 2015 Legatissimo F IRE 3 107 5 7 111 75 13/2 2 David Wachman 2014 Miss France F IRE 3 112 2 31 114 97 7/1 3 Andre Fabre 2013 Sky Lantern F IRE 3 111 7 18 110 97 9/1 Richard Hannon 2012 Homecoming Queen F IRE 3 106 13 21 109 100 25/1 A P O Brien 2011 Blue Bunting F USA 3 99 3 183 99 83 16/1 Mahmood Al Zarooni 2010 Special Duty F GB 3 117 5 24 117 108 9/2 F Mme C Head-Maarek 2009 Ghanaati F USA 3 85 2 188 87 70 20/1 B W Hills 2008 Natagora F FR 3 0 6 20 117 115 11/4 F P Bary 2007 Finsceal Beo F IRE 3 0 5 204 120 116 5/4 F J S Bolger The average winning Racing Post rating over the last 16 years amounts to 115. Legatissimo, Blue Bunting, Russian Rhythm, Finsceal Beo, Homecoming Queen and Minding are recent examples of winning fillies who bettered that standard. Yards with form As in the 2000 Guineas, Aidan O Brien leads the way when it comes to form in the 1000 Guineas with 3 wins and 6 places from his last 30 runners. Jim Bolger has a decent record. Just 9 runners since 2000 have yielded a winner and 4 additional placed finishes. John Gosden, Saeed Bin Suroor and Sir Michael Stoute merit respect with winners and multiple placed horses over the last 17 years. Two Andre Fabre runners have produced a winner and a place. Mick Channon s last 20 runners have failed to win or place. Bloodlines of note Galileo progeny have run 12 times in this race since 2000 producing a winner and 7 placed horses. Danehill Dancer s last 9 representatives have produced 2 wins. Kingmambo has 2 winners from 3 runners.
Page 9 Market pointers - Just 4 winning favorites since 2000 and just 7 winners coming out of the top 3 in the market stats that provide encouragement for contrarians like me who like to take the front horses on. Nine winners over the period at 10s or bigger make this a race I like to have a good crack at. I ve studied the last 17 renewals of the 1000 Guineas and I ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year s field. Here s what I discovered. Key Statistical Pointers All the last 17 winners had scored career-best Racing Post rating in one of last 2 races 16 were progeny of a sire which had won a G1 or a G2 on the racetrack 15 had scored a best RPR of at least 103 (9 of the last 11 winners had recorded a rating of 108+) 15 had run over 7f or 8f 15 had run between 2 and 7 times 15 had a strike rate of at least 40% 15 had won at least one of their last 2 races 14 had won a race worth 20k+ to winning connections 14 had posted a win at 7f or 8f (11 had strike-rates of 50%+ at those trips) 14 the 15 that had run at least 3 times had won at least twice 14 ran over 7f or 8f last time out 13 had won a Group race (11 had won a Group race as a 2yo) 13 had scored a best Topspeed rating of 95+ 13 had finished 1st or 2nd last time out 13 ran at Group level last time out 13 appeared at Newmarket, Leopardstown or Maisons-Lafitte last time out 13 had scored an RPR of 77+ on racing debut 11 had run in a Group 1 or a Group 2 (9 posting a win)
Page 10 11 of the 12 that had already run at Newmarket had hit the first 2 at the track Just 2 had run in a handicap Just 2 had run on the all-weather Just 2 had run beyond 8f
Page 11 The Profile of an Oaks Stakes winner. The Oaks Stakes is a Group 1 race for 3yo fillies contested over the 12f trip at Epsom. It s the 3rd classic of the flat season, the 2nd purely for fillies and the race is the middle leg of what is known as the Fillies Triple Crown. Weights are set at 9-00. A performance worth 118 on the Racing Post rating scale has been required to win an average renewal of the race over the last 23 years. The table below highlights the last 10 winners of the Oaks Stakes, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of hurdle runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and trainer. Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Hdl R Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer 2016 Minding F IRE 3 119 7 12 121 108 10/11 F A P O Brien 2015 Qualify F IRE 3 102 9 12 105 101 50/1 A P O Brien 2014 Taghrooda F GB 3 103 2 33 108 71 5/1 3 John Gosden 2013 Talent F GB 3 96 3 26 99 76 20/1 Ralph Beckett 2012 Was F IRE 3 0 2 16 99 66 20/1 A P O Brien2 2011 Dancing Rain F IRE 3 99 3 21 103 77 20/1 William Haggas 2010 Snow Fairy F IRE 3 107 7 16 108 106 9/1 Ed Dunlop 2009 Sariska F GB 3 115 3 23 117 95 9/4 F Michael Bell 2008 Look Here F GB 3 94 2 27 98 81 33/1 Ralph Beckett 2007 Light Shift F USA 3 106 5 23 107 104 13/2 3 Sir Henry Cecil Yards with form Aiden O Brien throws plenty of darts 48 across the last 17 renewals and has enjoyed plenty of success with 5 winners and 8 additional placed finishers. Ed Dunlop and Ralph Beckett have trained 2 winners apiece from small representations. John Gosden has trained a winner and 2 placed finishers from his last 10 participants. Bloodlines of note Sadler s Wells tops the list of strongest influences in recent times with 2 winners and 6 placed finishers from his last 20 runners. Cape Cross (1 winner and a place from last 5 runners), Kingmambo (1 winner and 1 place from 3) & Pivotal (1 winner and 2 places from 5) also have the makings of decent records. New Approach won with his first and only runner in 2013. Galileo 2 wins and a place from 23 runners.
Page 12 Market pointers Fancied horses have won their fair share of renewals over the last 2 decades 13 of the last 23 winners came out of the front 3 in the market. But this race can produce shocks too and I am never afraid to play contenders at big prices. Seven of the last 23 winners were sent off at double-figure SPs as were plenty of placed horses. I ve studied the last 23 renewals of the Oaks Stakes and I ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year s field. Here s what I discovered. Key Statistical Pointers All the last 23 winners had run at least twice on a racecourse All had appeared at some stage during the last 5 weeks All had won a race All had made the first 3 in a Listed or Group race All had produced an RPR of 95+ at 8f or further 22 of the last 23 winners had 16+ points in their Dosage Profile (19 had 20+ points). Check the Dosage Profiles for this season s runners here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/ 21 had a winning strike rate of 33% at trips of 8f+ 20 had won over trips of 7f or 8f as juveniles (2 others had finished 2nd at that kind of trip as a 2yo) 19 of the last 23 winners had scored their career-best RPR last time out 19 had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure that fell between -0.15 to 0.63. Get the figures for this year s field here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/ 18 had appeared no more than 6 times (16 no more than 5 times) 18 had won at least 33% of races contested 18 had finished 1st or 2nd last time out (incl. 11 of last 13 winners) at Listed level or better 18 had not finished outside the first 2 during the current season
Page 13 15 of the 16 that had raced at least 3 times had already scored an RPR of 103+ 14 of the 15 to race at 10f+ had produced their best RPR at that trip 10 of the last 13 winners had made the first 2 in a Class 1 race at 10f or 11f 8 of the 10 to race at least 4 times had already recorded a career-best Topspeed figure of 101+ Just two of the last 23 winners had won a race at a sprint trip
Page 14 The Profile of a Derby Stakes winner. The Derby Stakes is perhaps the most famous turf event run in Britain. It is a Group 1 race for the 3yo colts and fillies run over the 12f trip at Epsom and represents the middle leg of the Triple Crown. Weights are set at 9-00. Any fillies that go to post get the 3lb allowance. Over the last 23 years it has taken a performance worth 125 on the RPR scale to win an average renewal of this race. The table below highlights the last 10 winners of the Derby Stakes, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of hurdle runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and trainer. Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Chs R Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer 2016 Harzand C IRE 3 110 3 55 118 65 13/2 3 D K Weld 2015 Golden Horn C GB 3 118 3 23 123 110 13/8 F John Gosden 2014 Australia C GB 3 119 4 35 122 106 11/8 F A P O Brien 2013 Ruler Of The World C IRE 3 109 2 23 112 99 7/1 3 A P O Brien 2012 Camelot C GB 3 121 3 28 121 109 8/13 F A P O Brien 2011 Pour Moi C IRE 3 113 2 28 118 100 4/1 2 A Fabre 2010 Workforce C GB 3 108 2 23 114 110 6/1 3 Sir Michael Stoute2009 2009 Sea The Stars C IRE 3 121 4 35 124 123 11/4 2 John M Oxx 2008 New Approach C IRE 3 0 7 14 125 126 5/1 2 J S Bolger 2007 Authorized C IRE 3 116 3 16 121 120 5/4 F Peter Chapple-Hyam Yards with form Aiden O Brien is never short of high-class ammunition and this is the one race he is always trying to win firing 63 bullets since 2000. That firepower has brought him 5 winners and 11 placed finishers over the period. John Oxx is sparing with his entries but successful with 2 of his last 4 runners winning. Sir Michael Stoute s last 13 runners produced 3 wins and 3 places. John Gosden s last 12 runners have produced a win and 2 places. Bloodlines of note As with the Coronation Cup it is progeny of Montjeu which have excelled in recent times with his last 23 runners producing 4 winners and 2 places. His own sire, Sadler s Wells, had done very well before him. Galileo, another son of Sadler s Wells, has produced 3 winners and 6 places from his last 31 runners. Sea The Stars has produced a winner and a placer from his 4 runners to date.
Page 15 Market pointers Eighteen of the last 23 winners came out of the front 3 in the market which tells you the market is good at calling this event. That said plenty of big-priced horses run into places and it is always worth looking at so-called outsiders from Ballydoyle they hit the frame much more frequently than their prices suggest they should. I ve studied the last 23 renewals of the Derby Stakes and I ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year s field. Here s what I discovered. Key Statistical Pointers 22 of the last 23 winners had scored 100+ on the RPR scale (16 of the last 18 winners had produced an RPR of at least 118) 22 had raced at least twice 22 had raced no more than twice during the current season 21 of the last 23 winners had won at 7f+ as a 2yo (Ruler Of The World and Harzand are the exception. The first didn t run as a juvenile. The latter just once.) 21 had a winning strike rate of 50%+ 21 had not been outside first 2 that season 21 had scored best RPR last time out 20 had raced within the last 5 weeks 20 had at least 20 points in their Dosage Profile 20 debuted at 7f+ as a 2yo 20 had raced no more than 5 times 20 had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure that fell between -0.10 to 0.54. 19 had won last time out 18 had scored 82+ on debut as a juvenile 18 had scored at least 99 on the Topspeed scale 18 of the last 23 winners had appeared at Newmarket, Leopardstown, Chester or York last time out 16 had a Dosage Profile with a DI figure of 1.15 or lower. Get the figures for this year s field here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/
Page 16 16 of the 18 previous winners to race 3+ times had scored an RPR of 118+ 15 of the 16 previous winners to have raced at 10f+ had produced a win at that trip 12 of the last 15winners had already appeared at G1 or G2 level (10 registering a win) 11 of the last 13 winners had contested a G1 or G2 last time Just 3 of the last 23 winners had raced below Pattern level during the current season.
Page 17 The Profile of an Eclipse winner. The Eclipse Stakes is a G1 race contested over the right-handed 10f trip at Sandown. The race is open to horses aged 3yo+ and represents the first opportunity of the season for the 3yo generation to meet their elders at the top level. The 3yo runners carry 8-10. The older horses shoulder 9-07. Fillies and mares get the standard 3lb allowance. The table below highlights the last 10 winners of the Eclipse Stakes, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of hurdle runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and trainer. Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Chs R Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer 2016 Hawkbill C USA 3 110 7 16 112 93 6/1 2 Charlie Appleby 2015 Golden Horn C GB 3 126 4 28 127 116 4/9 F John Gosden 2014 Mukhadram H GB 5 119 12 17 123 114 14/1 William Haggas 2013 Al Kazeem H GB 5 126 11 17 124 115 15/8 F Roger Charlton 2012 Nathaniel C IRE 4 126 7 266 127 120 7/2 2 John Gosden 2011 So You Think C NZ 5 126 8 17 129 117 4/6 F A P O Brien 2010 Twice Over H GB 5 123 18 17 125 119 13/8 F Sir Henry Cecil 2009 Sea The Stars C IRE 3 124 5 28 124 123 4/7 F John M Oxx 2008 Mount Nelson C GB 4 0 7 18 120 114 7/2 2 A P O Brien 2007 Notnowcato H GB 5 122 17 17 126 103 7/1 3 Sir Michael Stoute Yards with form You need a quality horse to win what is the 10th richest G1 race run in Britain. Over the last 17 years Aidan O Brien has had more of the right ammunition than anybody else. His last 28 runners in the race have produced 5 wins and 6 placed finishes. Sir Michael Stoute s last 15 runners produced 2 wins and 5 placed finishes. John Gosden has produced two winners and a placed finisher from his 9 participants in the race since 2004. Market pointers going with one of the front two in the market would have found the winner in 9 of the last 11 renewals. Only two horses have won at a price of 12s or bigger over the last 17 years. Fifteen of the last 17 winners were sent off at 8s or shorter. I ve studied the last 17 renewals of the race and identified the key statistical signposts that will point us to the best-qualified contenders in this year s field. Here s what I found.
Page 18 Key Statistical Pointers All the last 17 winners had raced at least 4 times 16 had won at least 3 races All the previous winners to have raced at least 10 times had won at least 4 times 16 had a winning strike rate of 33%+ (12 were operating at 40%+) 16 had raced between 2 and 4 times during the current season 16 had scored 119+ on the RPR scale 14 had scored an RPR of 119+ last time out 15 scored career-best RPR in one of last 3 races (13 in one of last 2) 9 of the last 11 winners had scored RPRs of 123+ at 10f to 12f 12 of the last 17 winners had scored RPRs of at least 118 in 2 or more of last 3 races 15 of the last 17 winners had scored 113+ on the Topspeed scale 15 had contested at least two G1 races (one of those that hadn t had won the single G1 race he had contested) 9 of the 10 previous winners to race 10+ times had run in 4+ G1s 15 of the last 17 winners had won at least one G1 15 had appeared in a G1 last time out (11 posting a top 3 finish) 14 of the 16 to run during current term had been 1st or 2nd in at least one G1 16 of the last 17 winners had raced in the last 30 days (either at the Royal meeting or Epsom) 13 had contested 33% of career races at G1 level 11 had won a G1 between 8f and 10f 13 had won a race worth 115k+
Page 19 14 had contested races worth 100k+ that term (11 had contested multiple such races) 12 had finished 1st or 2nd in at least 2 races worth 100k+ at some point in career Just one of the last 16 winners had raced beyond 12f Just one had won a Group race at a sprint trip
Page 20 The Profile of a King George winner. A real treat for racing fans is the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes taking place at Ascot. The King George is the most prestigious open-age flat race run in Great Britain the second-most-valuable after the Derby and the list of previous winners reads like a who s who of middle distance racing. It s a G1 race for horses aged 3yo+ and is contested over the 12f trip. The 3yo runners carry 8-09 whilst the older horses carry 9-07. Fillies and mares get a 3lb allowance. Any 4yo runners from the southern hemisphere get a 4lb allowance. The table below highlights the last 10 winners of the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of hurdle runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and trainer. Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Chs R Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer 2016 Highland Reel C IRE 4 119 14 35 122 107 13/8 F A P O Brien 2015 Postponed C IRE 4 118 11 35 121 110 6/1 Luca Cumani 2014 Taghrooda F GB 3 116 3 50 118 100 7/2 2 John Gosden 2013 Novellist C IRE 4 119 7 34 121 105 13/2 A Wohler 2012 Danedream F GER 4 128 13 27 128 128 9/1 P Schiergen 2011 Nathaniel C IRE 3 115 5 36 120 103 11/2 John Gosden 2010 Harbinger C GB 4 123 8 35 129 117 4/1 2 Sir Michael Stoute 2009 Conduit C IRE 4 125 11 21 127 119 13/8 F Sir Michael Stoute 2008 Duke Of Marmalade C IRE 4 0 12 38 130 118 4/6 F A P O Brien 2007 Dylan Thomas C IRE 4 0 14 38 130 117 5/4 F A P O Brien Yards with form You need a quality horse to win what is the 10th richest G1 race run in Britain. Over the last 17 years Aidan O Brien has had more of the right ammunition than anybody else. His last 28 runners in the race have produced 5 wins and 6 placed finishes. Sir Michael Stoute s last 15 runners produced 2 wins and 5 placed finishes. John Gosden has produced two winners and a placed finisher from his 9 participants in the race since 2004. Market pointers the market has proved adept at calling this prestigious race in recent times. Twelve of the last 17 winners were sent off in the front 2 of the market but it is worth bearing in mind that 3 of the last 4 editions of the race have been won by horses breaking this trend.
Page 21 I ve studied the last 17 renewals of the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes and I ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year s field. Here s what I discovered. Key Statistical Pointers All the last 17 winners were aged 3- or 4-years-old All had registered a best RPR of 118+ (scored at trips between 10f and 12f) All had appeared in a G1 or G2 over 10f to 12f last time out All had scored an RPR of at least 114 last time out (12 had scored 120+) All had been off the track at least 3 weeks 16 had raced between 5 and 15 times on the flat 15 had appeared in races worth 200k+ to winning connections (11 at least twice) 15 had raced within the last 6 weeks 14 were bred in Ireland 14 had a winning strike rate of 40%+ 14 had a strike rate of 50%+ at trips between 11f and 13f 14 had scored a career-best RPR in one of last 3 races 13 had won a G1 or G2 during the current season 13 had scored best Topspeed figure in one of last 4 races 13 had not finished outside the first 3 in any race that term 13 had won at least 2 of their last 4 races 12 of the 16 winners for which figures exist had scored 110+ on the Topspeed table 13 had finished 1st or 2nd last time out 13 had run in at least two G1 races (the other 4 had either won a G2 or won the only G1 they d appeared in)
Page 22 13 had won a G1 (12 in one of last 3 G1 races they d contested) 12 had won a G1 at trips between 10f and 12f 11 of the 13 to race 6+ times had won a race worth more than 100k to winning connections Just one had raced outside Class 1 level during the current term 5 of the 7 previous winners to race 10+ times had scored 127+ The 8 previous winners with Ascot experience had produced a top 3 finish at the track
Page 23 The Profile of St Leger winner. The St Leger Stakes is a G1 race contested by 3yo colts and fillies over Doncaster s extended 14f trip. Weights are set at the standard 9-01. Fillies qualify for the 3lb allowance. The table below highlights the last 10 winners of the St Leger, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of hurdle runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and trainer. Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Chs R Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer 2016 Harbour Law C GB 3 102 5 65 105 79 22/1 Laura Mongan 2015 Simple Verse F IRE 3 108 6 44 108 86 8/1 3 Ralph Beckett 2014 Kingston Hill C GB 3 120 6 70 123 116 9/4 F Roger Varian 2013 Leading Light C IRE 3 110 5 85 111 96 7/2 F A P O Brien 2012 Encke C USA 3 112 5 24 115 99 25/1 Mahmood Al Zarooni 2011 Masked Marvel C GB 3 109 6 65 114 95 15/2 John Gosden 2010 Arctic Cosmos C USA 3 111 7 46 114 111 12/1 John Gosden 2009 Mastery C GB 3 111 7 25 115 112 14/1 Saeed Bin Suroor 2008 Conduit C IRE 3 112 7 46 114 105 8/1 Sir Michael Stoute 2007 Lucarno C USA 3 113 7 25 120 113 7/2 2 John Gosden Yards form Quite a few yards have a strong track-record in this event. Aidan O Brien s 37 participants since 2000 have produced 4 winners and 7 placed horses. John Gosden s last 13 runners produced 3 wins and 2 places. Sir Michael Stoute s last 17 runners produced a win and 5 placed efforts. Bloodlines of note Galileo last 25 runners have produced a winner and 9 additional placers. Market pointers 7 of the last 9 renewals were very kind to contrarian punters with the winners sent off at odds ranging from 15/2 to 25/1. I ve studied the last 17 renewals of the race in depth (I ve also looked at specific aspects of the last 33 renewals) and there are some strong statistical themes to draw which will help us find solid candidates for bets in this year s renewal. Here s what I found.
Page 24 Key Statistical Pointers All the last 17 winners had posted their top on the RPR scale in one of last two races (12 last time out) All 17 had raced at least 3 times during the current season All 17 had been off the race track for at least 3 weeks 16 had scored their best RPR at 12f to 14f 16 had raced over 12f or beyond (11 posting wins) 16 of the last 17 winners had raced at least 5 times 16 had won at least two races 15 had raced no more than 5 times during the current season 15 had a winning strike rate of 25%+ 14 had won a race during the current season 14 had gone at 12f or beyond at least twice but it is worth noting that 12 had not raced beyond 12f 14 had scored career-best Topspeed figure in one of last 2 races 14 had appeared in a G1 or G2 over 12f (12 registering a finish in the first 3) 14 of the last 17 winners had registered a career best RPR of 114+ 12 of the last 17 winners appeared at York or Goodwood last time out 10 had already appeared in at least one G1 race 27 of the last 33 winners were progeny of a sire with a Stamina Index figure of 10.3+ 24 of the last 33 winners had a Dosage Profile with a DI figure in the range of 0.52 to 1.07 25 of the last 33 winners had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure in the range of -0.19 to 0.38 32 of the last 33 winners had 16+ points in their Dosage Profile (27 had 20+ points) Just 3 had appeared in a G1 or a G2 race at a trip short of 10f
Page 25 The Profile of an Arc winner. The Prix De L Arc De Triomphe is the World s third richest turf race behind the Melbourne Cup and the Japan Cup. Think of this as an international championship race for the best middle-distance horses on the planet. The race is a G1 contest for horses aged 3yo+. Geldings are excluded. The 3yo runners carry 8-11. The older horses shoulder 9-05. Fillies and mares benefit from the 3lb allowance. The trip is 12f around the right-handed Parisian track. The table below highlights the last 10 winners of the Arc De Triomphe, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of hurdle runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and trainer. Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Chs R Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer 2016 Found F IRE 4 0 18 22 122 113 6/1 A P O Brien 2015 Golden Horn C GB 3 0 7 22 132 116 9/2 2 John Gosden 2014 Treve F FR 4 0 6 21 131 115 11/1 Mme C Head-Maarek 2013 Treve F FR 3 0 2 21 120 115 9/2 Mme C Head-Maarek 2012 Solemia F IRE 4 0 9 21 112 100 33/1 C Laffon-Parias 2011 Danedream F GER 3 0 9 28 124 103 20/1 P Schiergen 2010 Workforce C GB 3 0 4 71 129 128 6/1 Sir Michael Stoute 2009 Sea The Stars C IRE 3 0 8 29 138 132 4/6 F John M Oxx 2008 Zarkava F IRE 3 0 5 21 124 123 13/8 F A De Royer-Dupre 2007 Dylan Thomas C IRE 4 0 17 29 131 130 11/2 A P O Brien Yards pointers Andre Fabre is the main man when it comes to this race. Horses trained by him have won 7 of the renewals contested since 1987. He s had 2 winners and 9 frame finishers since 2000 from a representation of 30 runners. Alain De Royer-Dupre is another French handler with a strong record 2 wins and 3 frame finishers from his last 20 runners. Aiden O Brien always targets this race with plenty of ammunition. His 38 runners since the turn of the century have produced two winners and 5 place finishers. Market pointer It s been a mixed bag over the last 17 years. Nine of the last 17 winners came out of the front 3 in the market. Two of the last 6 winners were complete shocks Danedream and Solemia being sent off at 20s and 33s respectively. Plenty of big priced runners have made the frame in recent years encouragement for punters like me who appreciate a bet at a price.
Page 26 Age-related thoughts Just 3 of the last 53 Arc winners were older than 4. The 3yos have won 33 of the last 53 renewals whilst the 4yos have won 17. Sixteen of the last 17 renewals were won by horses aged 3 or 4. As is the case with the wider record the edge lies with the 3yo horses in recent times. As a group, they have won 11 of the last 17 renewals and produced an additional 16 top-3 finishes from 120 runners. Compare that to the record of 4-year-old runners. They have produced 5 wins and 11 top-3 finishes from 95 runners over the same period. Breeding matters Horses bred in 5 different countries have won at least one of the last 17 renewals of the Arc but the edge has been with the Irish-bred horses. As a group, they ve won 9 Arcs and produced an additional 12 top-3 finishers from 86 runners since 2000. American-bred horses are in the process of producing good figures. The last 16 to go to post have scored a win and 4 top-3 finishes. Japanese horses have produced 3 places from 14 runners since 2000. I ve studied the last 17 renewals of the Arc De Triomphe and there are some clear statistical pointers that will alert you to the strongest contenders and the best bets in this season s renewal. Here s what I found: Key Statistical Pointers All the last 17 winners had won at least 2 races (all those that had raced 6+times had won at least 4 races) All had raced at G1 level (15 at least twice) All had run in a G1 race that season (14 in at least 2) All had run over 12f at G1 level (14 had won and the 3 that hadn t had finished 2nd or 3rd at least once) All the last 17 winners had raced at G1 or G2 level over 10f to 12f last time out All had been off the track at least 3 weeks 16 of the last 17 winners had raced at least 6 times 16 had a strike rate of 33%+ (13 had won 50%+ of races contested) 16 had raced at least 3 times during the current season (12 had raced no more than 5 times that term) 16 had scored a best of 120+ on the Racing Post rating scale 16 had already won a G1 race 16 had won a race worth at least 100k to winning connections
Page 27 15 had raced within the last 5 weeks 15 had won at least twice during the current season (12 won last time out) 14 had raced no more than 12 times 14 had scored a best Topspeed rating of 113+ 14 had won a G1 that season (11 winning the last G1 race they d contested) 13 had appeared at Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out 13 scored career-best RPR in one of last two races 12 had scored career-best RPR at 11f or 12f 12 had scored an RPR of 124+ at the 12f trip 12 had scored an RPR of 120+ last time out 11 of the last 16 winners of the race when run at Longchamp had experience of the track (10 had won there) Fillies and mares as a group have won 6 and produced an additional 9 top-3 finishers from 60 runners since 2000