El Niño: what it is and what to expect in San Francisco Bay A. O Neill U.S. Geological Survey Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center Santa Cruz
Outline Tropical Ocean and El Niño Impacts beyond the tropics Atmospheric circulation and storms: temperature, wind, waves, precipitation El Niño conditions past and present Resources for weather and storm-related hazard projections
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/images/content/208068main_lanina1_hi.jpg
Neutral conditions Trade winds East cool (upwelling) West - warm water, precipitation http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/three-phases-of-enso.shtml MetEd/UCAR
El Niño conditions Decreased winds Warmer water in east Shift in precipitation Shift in pattern of available heat Shift in atmospheric circulation http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/three-phases-of-enso.shtml
Neutral http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/cwlink/mjo/enso.shtml El Niño http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/nino_profiles.html
Monitoring El Niño El Niño identified and monitored by changes in: Sea Surface Temperature - (SST Anomaly) Temperature at depth Atmospheric surface pressure Wind Precipitation patterns across Equator (OLR) ONI http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/cwlink/mjo/enso.shtml
Oceanic Niño Index El Niño: ONI greater than +0.5 C La Niña: El Niño Neutral La Niña ONI less than -0.5 C http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/cwlink/mjo/enso.shtm
http://iri.columbia.edu; climate.gov El Niño and La Niña
Impacts on Atmospheric Circulation El Niño: Extended Pacific Jet Stream
Impacts on Atmospheric Circulation La Niña: Variable Pacific Jet Stream
El Niño impacts CPC Chance of above/below normal temperature Chance of above/below normal precipitation: March Dave Gatley, FEMA climate.gov, CPC
Wave energy Wave direction Barnard, P., Kaminsky, G., Hansen, J., Allan, J., Ruggiero, P., and Hoover, D. The Impact of the 2009-10 El Niño on West Coast Beaches, AGU 2010 Mean Monthly sea-level anomalies at Los Angeles* Increased water levels 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 1982/83 1992/93 1997/98 2015/16 6 4 2 0 AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR * Data for SEP 2015+ from Santa Monica; tide guage data (https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov);download date 3 Mar 2016.
The Impact of the 2009-10 El Niño on West Coast Beaches. Patrick L. Barnard, George M. Kaminsky, Jeff E. Hansen, Jonathan C. Allan, Peter Ruggiero and Daniel Hoover, AGU 2010 El Niño impacts Accretion Erosion El Niño
El Niño - impacts Aptos, 1983 - Mercury News File Photo) San Lorenzo River, 1982 - Frans Lanting/Corbis California Governor's Office of Emergency Services/Robert A. Eplett. Cowell s Beach, 1982 - USGS
El Niño - impacts SeaCliff Bluffs, 1982 - USGS Great Highway guardrail, 2009-2010 Jeff Hansen
El Niño - impacts A series of photos showing coastal erosion at San Francisco's Ocean Beach, 2010 - PATRICK BARNARD, USGS
Santa Cruz Boardwalk and Twin Lakes beaches: A. O Neill, USGS; A. Foxgrover, USGS El Niño - impacts
Feb 4 th 2016: Mavericks. srfer.co/gv0pz4
OLAF PATRICIA Philip Klotzbach, CSU NOAA
El Niño - impacts MODIS ocean color and phytoplankton. Source: http://climatebits.org; http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=4387&button=recent
El Niño - impacts Pacific Marine Mammal Center http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/pr/health/mmume/californiasealions2013.htm Unusual Mortality Events for Guadalupe Fur Seals; tough year for California Sea Lions - http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/pr/health/mmume/ Pat Wilson, The Marine Mammal Center Unusual number of pup stranded or starving Increase at rescue center
All El Niño Composite: precipitation Impacts All La Niña Composite: precipitation
El Niño - variability MetEd/UCAR NASA Earth Observatory NASA Earth Observatory
Image courtesy NWS Sacramento El Niño - variability
Resources http://nowcoast.noaa.gov/ http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/
Resources http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Open coast Global Global winds and wave models of future climate scenarios Resources Community-level impacts from storm hazards local-scale projections: Regional Tides, regional water levels, circulation, and waves Delft FLOW model explicit, deterministic modeling system to capture relevant physics related to coastal storms Local High resolution hydrodynamics and waves Coastal Storm Modeling System SWAN wave model https://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/coastal_processes/cosmos/ TWL applied onto hi-res DEM Other components: Fluvial discharges (marsh accretion) (vertical land motion)
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) shown in Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) 100-year storm, 0 cm SLR http://data.prbo.org/apps/ocof/ Resources
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/
Main site: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/
Also http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/plot_fsi_hist.pdf
North section north Sierras Other plots and data related to rain and snow: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/snow_rain.html http://cdec.water.ca.gov/