Upper and lower limits of 3 RPI factors may help in scheduling

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1 The RPI Report rpiratings.com rpiratings.com rpiratings.com rpiratings.com rpiratings.com December 26, 2011 Vol. 21, No. 4 Upper and lower limits of 3 RPI factors may help in scheduling To many, the RPI is something of a mystery, even to those who spend quite a bit of time studying it. The RPI can be complicated and confusing. A person from one school told me long ago that I would not believe how much time they spent going over it and using it to help with their non-conference scheduling. Another time, a person from a school called up with just one schedule strength question about the RPI. I answered it, and his reply was That s all I wanted to know. It was as if he completely understood all there was to know about the RPI. In the end, the RPI is all about balance. If you play one of the toughest schedules in the country, especially if your team is not in one of the conferences where your conference schedule dictates that you play several top 50 RPI teams every year, you probably will not end up with a very good record, which would preclude a post-season invitation. Likewise, if you schedule nothing but easy wins and have nary a strong team on the docket, 20+ wins alone will not be enough to make the NCAA tournament. The list of teams with 20 or more wins that did not make the tournament is quite long. In fact, 18 teams with 25 or more wins since 2000 did not made the tournament. Each of the three factors that make up the RPI has what I call built-in upper and lower limits, which are numeric limits for each of the three factors that are consistent from year to year and do not vary much above or below those limits. This discussion will concentrate on Selection Sunday numbers. Factor I of the RPI, which is winning percentage, is a good starting point. Winning percentage is the easiest of the three factors to understand. The weighting that was established for the season makes it a bit, but not much more, complicated. The upper and lower limits of Factor I are and because it is theoretically possible for teams to win all of their games, and they can lose all of their games as well. In any given year, the Factor I range is typically from.9500 to The 25% weight makes those numbers.2375 and.0125, respectively. If a team finishes the regular season 33-2, without the weights it will have a winning percentage of 94.3%, and if a team goes 2-30, it will have a winning percentage of 6.3%. Also, remember that weighted wins and losses do not matter if a team has no losses. A team with 8.2 weighted wins and no losses still has a perfect weighted winning percentage because (8.2/(8.2+0)) = Likewise, the same is true for a winless team because that team s winning percentage will be zero no matter what the denominator is (0.0/(any number)) = Schedule strength, or Factor II, may be a bit harder to conceptualize, but its Selection Sunday upper and lower limits are relatively stable from year to year. Factor II numbers usually range from.6500 to.3500, which, coincidentally, is about how the best and worst RPI figures work out. Last season, the best and worst schedule strength numbers in the first issue of The RPI Report were.7816, and.1371, but the best and worst Selection Sunday figures were.6503 (Georgetown) and the worst was There were just 15 schools that had schedule strengths above.6000, and only 12 schools that were below By way of comparison, the best Selection Monday schedule strength for the women last season was.6656 and the worst was The picture is clear: these numbers are very predictable. Factor III, opponents schedule strength or opponents opponents winning percentage, is also very predictable. Typically, Factor III ranges from about.5600 to.4400 from year to year. The best Factor III in the first issue of The RPI Report last season was.6628 and the worst was.3231, compared to Selection Sunday values of.5654 (Syracuse), and the worst was When those are given the 25% weight for FIII, they range from.1414 to.1062, To show how tightly packed Factor III values were for Selection Sunday last season, there were 124 schools that had figures between.5200 and.4800, and 211 fell between.5300 and The bottom line regarding Factor III is that it is not worth worrying about when it comes to crafting non-conference schedules. Simply pretend that it does not exist. How can all of this help in scheduling non-conference games? Wins are a must, because otherwise a team will be going nowhere in March. 140 teams made post-season play in the four tournaments in 2011, meaning that 41% of teams made the cut. Last season 176 teams had Selection Sunday winning percentages above.500, including non-division I games. That leaves only about 35 or teams with winning records that did not make the post-season. Wins may be the main criteria to make a couple of these tournaments, but schedule strength is very important for NCAA tournament, and probably for at-large NIT bids as well. Therefore, non-conference schedules should be designed with the ability of the team in mind. A Collegiate Basketball News publication Serving the college basketball community since 1991

2 KEY TO THE RPI REPORT COLUMNS ALL GAMES RPI INFORMATION RPI Rank - RPI rank as of date listed RPI LW - RPI Rank 1 week ago CH - Change in RPI Rank from 1 week ago NDI W-L - Non-Division I wins and losses Div I W-L - Division I wins and losses W% -Rk - Division I winning percentage and rank FII -Rk - Schedule strength and rank AvRPI ofopp - Average RPI rank of opponents played (another way to measure schedule strength) F3 Rk - Factor III rank, the teams opponents' opponents' D-I winning percentage (the teams opponents schedule strength) RPI - RPI rating which is how the list is sorted numerically Conference Rk - Teams conference rank Conference W-L - Teams conference record RdA - Teams conference road advantage (conference road wins minus conference home losses) NON-CONFERENCE RPI INFORMATION NC W-L - Teams non-conference wins and losses NC Rd W-L - Teams non-conference road wins and losses NonConf Sstr-Rk - Teams non-conference schedule strength and rank NC RPI -Rk - Teams non-conference RPI and rank RECORD VS TEAMS RANKED - Teams won-loss record vs. teams in those RPI ranking categories MISCELLANEOUS INFORMATION Home W-L - Teams all games home wins and losses record Road W-L - Teams all games road wins and losses record Ntl W-L - Teams all games neutral wins and losses record Last 12 - Number of wins in last 12 games St - Teams current winning or losing streak SCORING DATA (ALTERNATES EVERY 3 WEEKS) Off Avg - Teams offensive scoring average Def Avg - Teams defensive scoring average Scor Marg - Teams scoring margin OPPONENTS W_L DATA (ALTERNATES EVERY 3 WEEKS) Opponents W-L - Opponents total W s and L s Opponents % - Opponents W-L percentage STREAKS DATA (ALTERNATES EVERY 3 WEEKS) Best NC - Best (Longest) non-conference winning streak Best Con - Best (Longest) conference winning streak Overall Bst - Best (Longest) overall winning streak Overall Wst - Worst (longest) overall losing streak Cur - Current winning or losing streak CLOSE GAMES Close Losses - Number of games a team has lost by 1, 2, and 3 points (1-2-3) OT W-L - Teams record in overtime games KEY TO CHANCES OF BEING AN AT-LARGE NCAA TOURNAMENT SELECTION IN VARIOUS NON-RPI CATEGORIES This list appears in the Report around the first of February. OK denotes the team has, in general, met the standard for the given column, based on past at-large tournament selections. For NDI games, a 69.8% had 0" means that 69.8% of at-large teams played no non-division I games; OK means they played no such games. For D-I wins, 69.4% had more wins means that 69.4% of at-large teams had more wins than the team in question, and so on. The RPI Ranking Bracket column gives the percentage of at-large teams within the ranking bracket that were selected for the tournament. The RPI Report is published weekly in season, 17 issues per year. Copyright 2011 by Collegiate Basketball News Company. All Rights Reserved. Jim Sukup - Publisher and Editor Fall Creek Road, Indianapolis, Indiana Phone/Fax: (317) ; Web: $ per year via internet access. Any reproduction, by photocopy, fax, or other form, in whole or part, is prohibited except by written consent. Unauthorized reproduction and/or distribution will result in immediate cancellation. The Rating Percentage Index has been used since 1981 to help select at-large teams and seed all teams for the men s NCAA basketball tournament. Data herein duplicates the RPI without input from the NCAA. The three RPI components are: Factor I (25 % of the RPI) is the team's weighted Division I (D-I) winning percentage, excluding non-division I opponents. Factor II (50 %) is the team's opponents' D-I winning percentage (schedule strength) excluding games played against the team in question. Factor III (25 %) is the team's opponents' opponents' D-I winning percentage (the teams opponents schedule strength). The weighted RPI formula is based upon the home, neutral, or road location of the game.

3 THE CBN RPI NUMERICAL RANKINGS THROUGH GAMES OF SUNDAY, DECEMBER 25, 2011 << ALL GAMES RPI INFORMATION >> NONCONFERENCE RPI INFORMATION RECORD VS TEAMS RANKED: MISCELLANEOUS INFO SCORING DATA CLOSE GMS RPI RPI NDI DivI SchdStr AvRP F3 Conference NC NCRd NonConf NonConf Top Home Road Ntl L Off Def Scor Losses OT Rank LW Ch Team W-L W-L W % -Rk FII -Rk ofop Rk RPI Rk W-L RdA W-L W-L SStr-Rk RPI -Rk W-L W-L W-L 12 St Avg Avg Marg W-L Syracuse W Duke W Southern Miss W Connecticut W Northern Iowa L Louisville W Seton Hall W UNLV W Marquette W North Carolina W Baylor W Gonzaga W Long Beach St L Creighton W Ohio W Murray St W Minnesota W Alabama W Iona W Kansas St W Michigan St W Saint Joseph's W Ohio St W Kentucky W Kansas W Temple W Wisconsin W Harvard W Wichita St W Virginia W Denver W Florida W Lamar L West Virginia L Davidson L Oklahoma W Northwestern L Marshall W Vanderbilt W St. Mary's W Norfolk St W Mississippi L Illinois L Col. Charleston W Colorado St W Indiana St W Florida St L Dayton W Georgetown W Michigan W Missouri W Saint Louis W Indiana W Cleveland St W Miami-FL W Virginia Tech W Arizona W San Diego St W LSU W Mississippi St W BYU W Iowa St W N.C. St W Xavier W California L Memphis L Fairfield L Pittsburgh L Purdue W Bucknell W South Dakota St W Oral Roberts W Va. Commonwealth W Wagner W TCU W New Mexico W New Mexico St W UW-Green Bay W

4 << ALL GAMES RPI INFORMATION >> NONCONFERENCE RPI INFORMATION RECORD VS TEAMS RANKED: MISCELLANEOUS INFO SCORING DATA CLOSE GMS RPI RPI NDI DivI SchdStr AvRP F3 Conference NC NCRd NonConf NonConf Top Home Road Ntl L Off Def Scor Losses OT Rank LW Ch Team W-L W-L W % -Rk FII -Rk ofop Rk RPI Rk W-L RdA W-L W-L SStr-Rk RPI -Rk W-L W-L W-L 12 St Avg Avg Marg W-L North Dakota St L Georgia W Robert Morris W Duquesne W Massachusetts W UW-Milwaukee L Villanova W Texas L UCF L Colorado W Richmond L Belmont W St. Bonaventure W Lehigh L Oregon W Kent St L Middle Tennessee W Charleston So W Stanford L Wyoming W Drake W Wake Forest W Arkansas W Mercer W La Salle W Weber St W Loyola-Maryland L Nebraska W Nevada W Maryland W South Alabama W Oakland L Missouri St L Butler W Washington St W Washington W Oklahoma St L Yale W UC Santa Barbara L UMKC L Valparaiso L UNC Wilmington L Long Island W UNC Asheville L Eastern Wash L Charlotte L Buffalo L Providence W Columbia W Cal Poly L American L Southern Cal L Drexel W Northern Colo L Boise St L Oregon St W Santa Clara L Florida Atlantic L Akron W North Florida W Georgia Tech L James Madison W Arkansas St L Old Dominion W Western Illinois W Manhattan L Pennsylvania W Western Michigan W Elon L Holy Cross W Portland St L Maine W USC Upstate W South Florida L Geo. Washington L Mississippi Val L Texas-San Ant W Coppin St L Utah St W Coastal Carolina L

5 << ALL GAMES RPI INFORMATION >> NONCONFERENCE RPI INFORMATION RECORD VS TEAMS RANKED: MISCELLANEOUS INFO SCORING DATA CLOSE GMS RPI RPI NDI DivI SchdStr AvRP F3 Conference NC NCRd NonConf NonConf Top Home Road Ntl L Off Def Scor Losses OT Rank LW Ch Team W-L W-L W % -Rk FII -Rk ofop Rk RPI Rk W-L RdA W-L W-L SStr-Rk RPI -Rk W-L W-L W-L 12 St Avg Avg Marg W-L Tulane L Vermont W DePaul W Iowa W UTEP W Notre Dame W Fresno St W San Francisco L Auburn L UAB W Montana W Rice W Morgan St W Campbell L CS Bakersfield W Penn St W Albany W Wright St W Eastern Michigan L Boston U L Western Carolina W UCLA W George Mason W Tennessee Tech W Texas-Arlington W Central Michigan L South Carolina W Eastern Illinois L Jackson St L Princeton L Tennessee St W CS Fullerton W Cincinnati W Bradley L Loyola-Chicago W S.C. St L Eastern Kentucky L La.-Lafayette W IPFW L Furman L Quinnipiac W East Carolina W Bowling Green W Tulsa L New Jersey Tech L Pacific L Texas Southern L Western Kentucky L Loyola Marymount L East Tenn. St L Air Force L Illinois St W Texas Tech L Cornell L Northwestern St L Youngstown St L Ball St L N.C. Central W Morehead St W Wofford L Portland L Delaware L Arizona St L Tennessee-Martin L Northeastern L Presbyterian W Niagara L Clemson L Houston W Louisiana Tech L Central Arkansas L Colgate L Savannah St W Idaho L UC Riverside W New Hampshire L North Texas L Boston College W Fla. Gulf Coast W Evansville W

6 << ALL GAMES RPI INFORMATION >> NONCONFERENCE RPI INFORMATION RECORD VS TEAMS RANKED: MISCELLANEOUS INFO SCORING DATA CLOSE GMS RPI RPI NDI DivI SchdStr AvRP F3 Conference NC NCRd NonConf NonConf Top Home Road Ntl L Off Def Scor Losses OT Rank LW Ch Team W-L W-L W % -Rk FII -Rk ofop Rk RPI Rk W-L RdA W-L W-L SStr-Rk RPI -Rk W-L W-L W-L 12 St Avg Avg Marg W-L Winthrop L Lafayette L Fordham W Houston Baptist W Lipscomb L Nicholls St L Texas A&M L IUPUI W Stetson L Miami-OH L Alabama A&M L Florida Int L McNeese St L Troy L Seattle L Pepperdine L Texas St L Kennesaw St W Ark.-Pine Bluff L Tennessee W N.C. A&T L Sacred Heart L Stony Brook L Detroit W Appalachian St W Austin Peay L St. Francis NY L Alcorn St L Toledo L Cent. Conn. St L Georgia St W Rider W Hofstra W Rhode Island L Rutgers W St. John's W Canisius L SMU W SE Missouri St W Illinois-Chicago L CS Northridge L Hawaii W South Dakota L Utah Valley L UC Irvine L High Point W Marist L VMI L Longwood L St. Peter's L Prairie View L Gardner-Webb L Northern Arizona L Siena W Louisiana-Monroe L San Diego L Delaware St L Jacksonville St L Radford L Sam Houston St L Md.-East. Shore L Monmouth L Chicago St L Texas-Pan Am L Howard W Georgia Southern L Bethune-Cookman L St. Francis PA L UALR L UNC Greensboro L Utah L Chattanooga L Jacksonville L Samford L Brown L Montana St L Sacramento St L Texas A&M-CC L The Citadel L Southern Ill L

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