Salmon 2050: Drivers of Change Workshop. October 9, 2015 Kenai Peninsula College

Transcription

1 Salmon 2050: Drivers of Change Workshop October 9, 2015 Kenai Peninsula College

2 Thursday Oct. 8 th Introduction - Our Salmon Stories Keynote: Mayor Mike Navarre All art by Lee Post

3 Friday Oct. 9 th All Day Participatory Workshop Agenda: Welcome & Introductions Agency Overview ADF&G Deputy Comm. Charles Swanton, presented by Chief Fisheries Scientist, James Hasbrouck Overview of Agenda & Scenario Building Process Exercise I Describing the Best & Worst Futures for Kenai River Salmon Exercise II - Part 1: Perceptions of Past, Present and Future Exercise II - Part 2: Identify Key Issues / Decisions Lunch Exercise II - Part 3: Identifying Critical Uncertainties Exercise III: Identifying Agents / Actors of Change Break - Gallery Walk Exercise IV - Part 1: Prioritizing Decisions Exercise IV - Part 2: Prioritizing Uncertainties Break Exercise V: Uncertainty - Actor Relationships Thanks & Closing

4 Scenario Process Overview Dr. Jamie Trammell University of Alaska Anchorage

5 What is Scenario Analysis? Method for bringing future considerations into present decisions when prediction is not possible (Schwartz 1996) Scenarios broaden perspectives, open new questions, expose possibilities for surprise, and raise challenges to conventional thinking (Carpenter 2002) A narrative of a possible future, it is not a prediction, but a plausible future that merits consideration

6 Las Vegas

7 Scenario Terms Storyline A narrative description of changes that may take place Drivers of change Factors or conditions which collectively will influence the trajectory, magnitude and speed of changes Uncertainties Characteristics of systems that may be relevant to the focal question, but about which limited knowledge is available or over which there is disagreement about their current or future state Scenario process Identification and evaluation of plausible alternative futures for a region Trends Directional changes that are relevant to the region

8 Scenario Definition A scenario is a hypothetical sequence of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention on causal processes and decision points. ~Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty Years (1967)

9 Alternative Scenarios Cape Cod

10 Describing Best & Worst Futures for List you own statements / descriptors about best and worst futures. Seek to define extremes; be specific, not just more salmon Kenai River Salmon

11 Best Futures for Kenai River Salmon All stakeholders have all species available in a sustainable way User groups work together for sustainable salmon Abundance of salmon! Continued habitat protection and improvement across the watershed Conflicts between stakeholder groups and managers are gone! Runs reflect historic natural trends Genetic stocks recognized and deliberately sustained Integration of human and landscape systems coherent growth Stable freshwater and marine waters in the region (no climate and man made negative impacts) No need to introduce hatchery stocks in the Kenai Watershed is unimpaired no pollution or flow restrictions (predevelopment conditions) Preservation of the salmon culture, economy & food security Sustainable river use across all user groups Human population does not exceed the carrying capacity of the environment Managers are able to develop a long term sustainable plan for salmon

12 Worst Futures for Kenai River Salmon Stocks crash and river closures Reliance only on hatcheries increase Lack of juvenile survival due to climate Loss of public value, more users than change available fish lead to over fishing Loss or ambivalence to salmon culture All salmon gone Static fish management not adaptive Loss of agency funding Invasive species take over Human populations increase in the area which causes stock over Funding for research and exploitation management is cut or doesn t exist Artificially sustained salmon, not a Loss of ability to work with land natural system of diversity owners to enhance and preserve habitat Ice-fields are gone, they are not contributing to hydrology The loss of the federal land / estate Continued, or exacerbated user Uncontrolled and damaging conflict leading to social collapse (Fish development (deforestation / dredging Wars!) / oil gas / development, energy / harbor)

13 Drivers of Change Part 1. Vote your perception score on a scale of 1 (worst) to 10 (best). Perception of 10 years ago: Perception of current reality: Perception of 10 years from now: Perception of 20 years from now:

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18 Alaska Begins its Centennial Year as Sustainable Fishery! Kenai River King Salmon Fishing Season Extended 7 days through Aug. 7, Annual Limit Increased to 4

19 Haiku Kenai Salmon Rock! Salmon culture on the chopping block Give the fish a chance

20 What is an ACTOR? Why is it important to define and understand ACTORS in scenarios?

21 Agents / Actors of Change Typical Actions: What kinds of things does the actor do? Means of Agency: How is it the actor can do whatever it is he/she/it does? Motivation for Action: Why does the actor do whatever it is he/she/it does? Scene of Action: When the actor takes a typical action, what unit of spatial scale is involved? Factor of Increased Agency or Greater Effectiveness: What change would make this actor even more influential in shaping the future?

22 Salmon in the Kenai - Key Actors Alaska Dept. of Fish & Game Alaska Dept. of Natural Resources (Div. of Parks) Kenai Peninsula Borough Kenai Watershed Forum USFWS Kenai Wildlife Refuge

23 1. Alaska Board of Fish 2. Alaska State Legislature Potential / Emerging Actors 3. Cook Inlet Aquaculture Association 4. Cook Inlet Keeper 5. Kenai Area Fisherman s Coalition 6. Kenai / Soldotna Chamber of Commerce 7. Kenai Peninsula Fisherman Association 8. Kenai River Sport Fishing Association 9. Kenaitze Indian Tribe 10. Oil and Gas Industry 11. Real Estate Developers/Agents 12. United Cook Inlet Drift Association 13. DEC 14. South Central Dip-netters Association 16. Kenai Guide Association 17. DNR - DMLW & Div. of Agriculture (Invasive) 18. Local F&G advisory committees 19. KRSMA 20. FERC 21. City of Kenai 22. City of Soldotna 23. Bureau of Land Management 24. Corps of Engineers 25. NOAA Marine Sanctuaries 26. Park Service Cultural Landscape Set-Asides 27. CIRI 28. Kenai Peninsula Fish Habitat Partnership

24 AK State Legislature AK Board of Fish Kenai/Soldotna Chamber of Commerce City of Kenai Kenaitze Indian Tribe Oil & Gas Industry AK Dept. of Environmental Change City of Kenai

25 List key ISSUES / DECISIONS facing Kenai River Salmon should we? A. Further refine harvest management, considering individual stocks and genetic diversity (20) B. Limit the use of salmon (change gear types / lottery) C. Continue to allow public lands to be converted to private D. Allow for fish farming / ranching / stocking for recreation E. Increase user education regarding resource/fish management (20) F. Allow for commercial resource extraction in anadromous streams (Chuitna) (20) G. Favor natural process over human development (3) H. Allocate sufficient water to protect salmon habitat (20) I. Completely change the allocation regulation structure / process J. Consider local knowledge in decision making (3) K. Start planning for an oil spill or oil gas disaster on fresh water / river emergency response specific to the use of dispersants

26 List key ISSUES / DECISIONS facing Kenai River Salmon should we? L. Acknowledge an Alaska native subsistence priority for salmon M. Establish drainage laws specific to Alaska (3) N. Consider an uncertain climate future and management decisions (53) O. Make habitat conservation a priority (38) P. Allow large scale land use (roads, dams, deforestation, etc.) (9) Q. Balance quality of user experience with user access (22) L. Allocate more funding address resource management needs (13) M. Continue to focus on in-river management or expand to a more global management (4) N. Promote interagency cooperation / MOU to create a watershed plan that will pool resources, funding and planning processes (25) O. Encourage fall fishing for spawned out salmon

27 List key ISSUES / DECISIONS facing Kenai River Salmon should we? 1. Consider an uncertain climate future and management decisions (53) 2. Make habitat conservation a priority (38) 3. Promote interagency cooperation / MOU to create a watershed plan that will pool resources, funding and planning processes (25)

28 List key UNCERTAINTIES facing Kenai River Salmon Will? A. We repeat lower 48 decisions resulting in loss of salmon (7) B. Changes in the state tax structure raise revenues for fisheries management C. Maintain traditional cultural values in the increasingly modern world (4) D. People make salmon a higher priority (17) E. We over reach the Kenai user carrying capacity (12) F. Increase of privatization of river access decrease the amount of people fishing in the Kenai A. We experience another catastrophic event that may affect salmon (ex. EVOS/Fukishima) B. Branding and marketing affect the salmon culture of valuing salmon ( Alaska Playground ) C. New economic pressures or decisions be in direct competition for salmon protection (70) D. Consensus increase among salmon stakeholders (12) E. Participation in the personal user fishery continue to increase (19) F. *Where* will development occur

29 List key UNCERTAINTIES facing Kenai River Salmon Will? M. More international agreements that will protect local salmon returns (10) N. Salmon prices decrease O. Climate warming results in: loss of freshwater habitat, increased stream temps, increase sedimentation, changing hydrological regimes, increase invasive species, increase disease (146) P. Fish availability decrease due to marine by catch Q. Fish availability decrease due to changing marine conditions, acidification currents (62) R. Population in south central Alaska increase (10) affect on fish culture T. Increase in contamination require consumption advisories U. Increase in global or local salmon farming increase the demand for wild salmon (8) V. More demand for the resources by land use changes and population changes result in more demand for the fish resources (34) W. Population increase result in a sport fisherman user days increase (450,000 up to?) (18)

30 List key UNCERTAINTIES facing Kenai River Salmon Will? 1. Climate warming results in: loss of freshwater habitat, increased stream temps, increase sedimentation, changing hydrological regimes, increase invasive species, increase disease (146) 2. New economic pressures or decisions be in direct competition for salmon protection (70) 3. Fish availability decrease due to changing marine conditions, acidification currents (62) 4. More demand for the resources by land use changes and population changes result in more demand for the fish resources (34) 5. Population increase result in a sport fisherman user days increase (450,000 up to?) (18) 6. Participation in the personal user fishery continue to increase (19)

31 Actor Uncertainty Relationships Table 1: Cumulative scores of whether a given uncertainty would greatly hinder (negative numbers) or help (positive numbers) the actors ability to be effective at what they do. Bold indicates the primary actor-uncertainty scores.

32 Alternate Futures Framework

33 Thank you to everyone and their agencies who were able to participate in this workshop. And to those who helped put it on: Facilitators: Kitty Farnham Lee Post (Graphic)