12 Capelin in the Iceland-East Greenland-Jan Mayen area

Transcription

1 372 ICES NWWG REPORT Capelin in the Iceland-East Greenland-Jan Mayen area Summary In May 2014 ICES advised on the basis of precautionary considerations that the initial quota be set at the 50% of the predicted quota, implying an initial quota of t. The quota was revised to t after an acoustic survey in October. The final TAC of t for the fishing season 2014/2015 was set after an acoustic survey in January The total landings in the fishing season 2014/2015 amounted 517 thousand t (preliminary data). Around t were taken in July 2014, t in November 2014 and the rest during the winter months January-March The stock was benchmarked in January New methods for setting a final TAC and an initial quota were established. They will both apply for the next fishing season. Blim was defined during the meeting. The acoustic index of 1 year old capelin from the acoustic survey is of an average size. On the basis of the new prediction model the initial quota in 2015/16 is 54 thousand t. As the capelin increases its weight rapidly over the summer it is recommended that the fishery doesn't start until late autumn Stock description and management units See stock-annex Scientific data The capelin stock in Iceland-East Greenland-Jan Mayen area has been assessed by acoustics annually since The surveys have taken place in autumn (September- December) and in winter (January-February). An overview is given in the stock annex Surveys in autumn 2014 In 2014 the survey took place in the period 16 September-10 October. The survey area extended along the shelf edge off East Greenland from about N to about 65 30' N, as well as Denmark Strait and the continental slope west and north off Iceland (Figure ). Weather conditions during the survey were adverse for the first few days and the survey had to be discontinued several times because of storms but no drift ice was encountered during the survey. Capelin was westerly distributed (as in recent years) and similar to last year capelin was found almost up to 73 N (Figure ). In 2010 the northern limit was 71 N, in ' N, but there was no survey in 2011 (due to strike). Immature capelin dominated south of N, but was now also found north of Iceland. Further north, along the Greenland shelf, older, maturing capelin predominated. The combined index of young capelin (immature at age 1 and 2) in 2014 is at the average of years (Tables and Figure ). The index of young capelin in the autumn surveys has been the basis for the starting quota for many years, see further chapter In this survey around 660 thousand t of mature capelin was measured (Tables ). On the basis of this estimate of the mature stock the Marine Research Institute

2 ICES NWWG REPORT recommended a TAC of 260 thousand t for the fishing season 2014/2015. This recommendation was in accordance with existing HCR and management plan between Iceland, Norway and Greenland Surveys in winter 2015 One survey was conducted in 5 th 30 th January The survey tracks are shown in Figure Survey conditions were for the most part rather difficult. The survey had to be discontinued after 5 days in good recordings because of bad weather and could not be resumed again until 5 days later. The survey had to start again in the Denmark Strait because of uncertainty of migration speed and distance in the meantime. This part of the survey was done January. The migration was not concentrated along the slope as usually but was spread over greater distances resulting in long survey transects and therefore rather slow progress of the survey. On the other hand the migration speed of the capelin appeared rather slow. The main part of the mature capelin was situated from Denmark Strait in the west (from approx W) outside the shelf to the Kolbeinsey ridge (18 W). Further, there were some capelin found in a relatively small area east of Langanes in about N and W. In the most western part of the distribution area mixing of mature and immature capelin was common but was less prominent further east. Age, length and weight disaggregated abundance is shown in table The total biomass was estimated 1071 thousand tonnes where about 970 thousand tonnes were maturing to spawn. On the basis of this estimate of the mature stock the Marine Research Institute recommended a TAC of 580 thousand t for the fishing season 2014/2015. This recommendation was in accordance with existing HCR and management plan between Iceland, Norway and Greenland. Since in year 2010 the autumn surveys have started in September, a month earlier than in previous years. The winter survey 2015 makes the third successful pair of autumn/winter surveys since 2010, as in 2011 there was no autumn survey in September due to a strike and in winter 2014 the survey did not give successful coverage of the capelin spawning stock. The 2014/15 pair gave 47% increase in SSB biomass following the winter survey estimate which is an extreme compared to the 14% and 9% differences of the 2010/11 and 2012/13 pairs respectively Fishery dependent data A preliminary catch quota of 225 thousand t was recommended for the 2014/2015 fishing season. A total of 517 thousand t were caught from the final quota of 580 thousand t in the 2014/2015 fishing season. In July 2014, around 100 nmi southwest off Scoresby, the Norwegian and Danish vessels caught 30 thousand t and 10 thousand t of capelin respectively. Further, in autumn 2014, the Greenlandic fleet caught 5 thousand t in Denmark strait, close to the midline between Iceland and Greenland. The distribution of the winter catches, based on logbooks for the Icelandic fleet, is shown in Figure The beginning of the 2015 winter fishery had a slow start where in weeks 2-4 the fleet was fishing north of the north-eastern Icelandic continental shelf from rather scattered observations of capelin, meanwhile a considerable abundance of capelin was observed further west by a research survey. During the following 3 weeks the fisheries took mainly place much closer to the shore off north Iceland with few casts

3 374 ICES NWWG REPORT 2015 east of the Eastfjords. This is unusual development of the fishery as traditionally, at this time, the fleet would be fishing east and south of Iceland from the spawning migration of capelin. However, it is not until in week 8 that the fleet starts fishing from dense schools of capelin close to shore south-east off Iceland. This migration moved fast westward and was followed by the fishery south of the coast of west-iceland in following two weeks and ended west of Breidafjordur in weeks The landings during winter amounted 417 thousand t (preliminary information). The total annual catch of capelin in the Iceland-East Greenland-Jan Mayen area since 1964 is given by weight, season, and fleet in Table and Figure The catches of the 2014/2015 fishing season amounted 517 thousand t, which is close to the average of catches since the beginning of the fishery. Sampling from commercial catches is not considered to be adequate. From the fishery in winter 24 samples (2331 length measured and age read) were taken by the Icelandic fleet, 14 samples were taken by the Norwegian fleet, but no samples were taken by either the Faroes or the Greenlandic fleet. The Norwegian Fleet took 14 samples during the fishery in July and further 7 samples were taken in Iceland from Danish capelin fishery landed to Icelandic factories in summer The total catches in numbers by age during the summer/autumn since 1985 are given in Table and for the winter since 1986 in Table Similar age distribution was observed in the catches 2015 as in the survey in January Preliminary and final TAC as well as landings for the fishing seasons since 1992/93 are given in Table Growth Seasonal growth pattern, with considerably increased growth rate during summer and autumn has been observed in this capelin stock in a study of the period Where immature fish had slower growth during winter, the maturing fish had faster summer growth that continued throughout the winter until spawning in in March/April, followed by almost 100% spawning mortality (Vilhjalmsson, 1994). Further, examination of the growth of immature capelin at age 1 in autumn to mature at age 2 in autumn the year after in the period showed on average almost 4 fold weight increase during one year (Gudmundsdottir and Thorsteinsson, WD in 2014). This considerable weight increase and seasonal pattern in growth the year before spawning should be taken into account when deciding the timing of the capelin fisheries Methods Since early 1980s the stock has been managed according to an escapement strategy, leaving 400 thousand t to spawning. To predict the TAC for the next fishing season a model was developed early 1990s. These models were not endorsed by the benchmark working group WKSHORT New methods for setting the final TAC and setting an initial quota were endorsed by the benchmark working group WKICE in The working frame is now a stochastic one, similar to the one for the Barents Sea capelin. The total TAC will be given so, that p(ssb < Blim= t) < This method will be applied for the first time in the next fishing season (2015/16). The rationale behind the model of setting an initial quota is to set it low so that there is a minimum risk of it being higher than the final TAC. This method is used for the first

4 ICES NWWG REPORT time during this working group, for setting the initial quota for the fishing season 2015/16. See WKICE (ICES, 2015) and the Stock Annex for the capelin in the Iceland-East Greenland-Jan Mayen area Reference points During WKICE (ICES, 2015) Blim of t was defined. No other reference points are defined for this stock State of the stock The objective of the existing HCR for the stock is to leave 400 thousand t for spawning (escapement strategy). It is estimated that 460 thousand t were left for spawning in spring 2015 (Table and ). The acoustic indices of recruits are considered to be close to an average size Short term forecast Figure (taken from WKICE 2015, stock-annex) shows the relation between the index of immature capelin from an autumn survey and the estimated final advice for the fishing season starting a year later (see stock-annex). An initial quota is set on the basis of precautionary considerations (blue line). The risk of setting an initial quota exceeding the final TAC is considered very low. By using the acoustic indices on immature capelin at age 1 and immature at age 2 from autumn 2014 (Table and figure ) the predicted TAC for the fishing season 2015/2016 is estimated as t and the initial quota as t (table ) (Medium term forecasts) 12.9 Uncertainties in assessment and forecast The uncertainty of the acoustic estimates of the stock depends largely on the uncertainty of the echo abundance. The CV for the mature biomass was estimated by bootstrapping the SSB biomass values within the rectangles and strata used in the acoustic assessment. In the autumn 2014 survey the CV was estimated as 0.19 for the mature stock and 0.12 in the winter 2015 survey. This fishing season there is a discrepancy between the estimate of the mature stock according to the acoustic surveys in autumn and winter, but these surveys are used to revise/set the TAC. The winter survey gives 47% higher mature stock, than the autumn survey, but both surveys are considered to have covered the mature stock. In the fishing seasons 2010/11 and 2012/13 the ratio between the corresponding pairs were 14% and 9% respectively. The uncertainty when calculating the stock size by a deterministic method used so far is the value of M. A fixed value of M=0.035/month has been used, but it may be too low according to WKSHORT The acoustic survey in September-October 2014 had a good coverage of the spatial distribution of the capelin stock. The uncertainty of the immature capelin estimate is considered low with a CV of The numbers of immatures are used as input in the prediction model.

5 376 ICES NWWG REPORT Comparison with previous assessment and forecast For the fishing season 2014/2015 an initial quota of 225 thousand t were set. The final TAC was 580 thousand t. The landings were 517 thousand t. According to the HCR 400 thousand t shall be left for spawning. It is assumed that around 460 thousand t spawned in spring 2015 as not all quota was taken Management plans and evaluations In June 1989 Greenland, Iceland and Norway signed a management plan. It has been revised several times since then, most recently in The fishery is managed according to a two-step management plan which requires a minimum spawning-stock biomass of 400 thousand t by the end of the fishing season. The first step in this plan is to set a preliminary TAC based on the results of an acoustic survey carried out to evaluate the abundance of immature (age 1 and age 2) part of the capelin stock about a year before it enters the fishable stock. The preliminary TAC is set at 2/3 of the predicted TAC, calculated on the condition that 400 thousand t of the SSB should be left for spawning. The second step is based on the results of another survey conducted during the fishing season for the same year classes. This result is used to revise the TAC and set the final TAC, still based on the condition that 400 thousand t should be left for spawning. ICES has not evaluated the management plan with respect to its conformity to the precautionary approach Management considerations The fishing season for capelin has since 1975 started in the period from late June to July/August (when surveys on the juvenile part of the stock the year before has resulted in the setting of a preliminary catch quota). At that time the availability of plankton is at its highest and the fishable stock of capelin is feeding very actively over large areas north of Iceland between Greenland and Jan Mayen, increasing rapidly in size, weight and fatness. By late September/beginning of October this period of rapid growth is over. The growth is fasted the first two years, but the weight increase is most in the year before spawning. Taken into account the large weight increase in the summer before spawning (section 12.4) it is clear that more catches are gained by the same effort if the fishery starts late autumn instead of summer. This is also supported by information for the Barents Sea capelin, but is has been shown for that stock that fishing during autumn would maximize the yield, but from the ecosystem point of view a winter fishery were preferable (Gjøsæter et.al., 2002). As the biology of these two capelin stocks is similar and their effect on the ecosystem too, this is considered to be valid for the Icelandic capelin too. Seasonal variation of fat content is also observed. During the summer period, the fat content rises from approximately 5% to 20% in late autumn before spawning (Figure , Engilbertsson et. al. 2012). In the following fall and winter the fat content slowly declines, until the spawning migration begins in early January where the fat content drops drastically from about 15% to 5% in mid-april. Immature capelin has much lower fat content, usually less than 3-4%. During the summer and autumn, survey results show often overlap between juveniles and adult capelin. It has been reported by fishermen that while fishing with pelagic trawl in such areas, the catches are often poorer than expected from echo signals than

6 ICES NWWG REPORT when fishing in areas where there is only adult capelin. That might indicate greater escapement of juveniles through meshes. The effect of such escapement on the fish is unknown Ecosystem considerations Capelin is an important forage fish and its dynamics are expected to have implications on the productivity of their predators (see further in section 7.3). Capelin is the main single item in the diet of Icelandic cod and a key prey to several species of marine mammals and seabirds and also important as food for several other commercial fish species (see e.g. Vilhjálmsson, 2002) Regulations and their effects Over the years the fishery has been closed during April - late June and the season has started in July/August or later, depending on the state of the stock. Areas with high abundances of juvenile age 1 and 2 capelin (on the shelf region off NW-, N- and NE-Iceland) have usually been closed to the summer and autumn fishery. It is permissible to transfer catches from the purse-seine of one vessel to another vessel, in order to avoid slippage. However, if the catches are beyond the carrying capacity of the vessel and no other vessel is nearby, slippage is allowed. In recent years, reporting of such slippage has not been frequent. Industrial trawlers do not have the permission to slip capelin in order to harmonize catches to the processing. In Icelandic waters, fishing with pelagic trawl is only allowed in limited area off the NE-coast (fishing in January) to protect capelin juveniles and to reduce the risk of affecting the spawning migration route. A regulation calling for immediate, temporary area closures when high abundance of juveniles are measured in the catch (more than 20% of the catch composed of fish less than 14 cm) is enforced in Icelandic waters, using on-board observers Changes in fishing technology and fishing patterns Variable amount of the catches have been taken with pelagic trawl through the fishing seasons. Total landings in 2015/16 amounted 517 kt (preliminary numbers) (88% purseseine, 12% pelagic trawl). Discards are considered negligible Changes in the environment Icelandic waters are characterized by highly variable hydrographical conditions, with temperatures and salinities depending on the strength of Atlantic inflow through the Denmark Strait and the variable flow of polar water from the north. Since 1996 the quarterly monitoring of environmental conditions of Icelandic waters shows a rise in sea temperatures north and east of Iceland, which probably also reaches farther north and northwest, as well as on the spawning grounds at South- and Southwest Iceland. It has been put forward in the 2000s that this temperature increase, may have led to displacements of the juvenile part and the spawning areas of the capelin stock (Vilhjálmsson, 2007). The acoustic surveys in autumn 2010, partly confirmed this, but major part of the spawning still takes place on the usual grounds. More detailed environmental description is in section 7.3.

7 378 ICES NWWG REPORT Recommendations A considerable difference was evident between SSB estimates from autumn and winter acoustic surveys during this fishing season, meanwhile both surveys are believed to have a good coverage of the maturing stock component. Hence, it is recommended that it should be evaluated if and then how the SSB estimates from autumn and winter surveys should be weighted in the future when final TAC is defined. Studies of optimal harvesting of capelin should be conducted and presented to the NWWG. These estimates should take account of growth, mortality and gear selection in relation to the timing of the fishery (as recommended by WKICE 2015). The NWWG should initiate a review of the role of capelin in the Icelandic Sea ecosystem and in particular whether the population size and growth of capelin predators shows a response to changes in capelin abundance (as recommended by WKICE 2015) Special request ICES got the following request from the Coastal States of the capelin in the Iceland- East Greenland-Jan Mayen area: Capelin in East Greenland, Iceland and Jan Mayen area was benchmarked by ICES in January this year and consequently the basis for the TAC advice was changed to a new PA approach. I assume therefore that ICES in May will provide advice in accordance to the new approach. As you are aware, the coastal states of this stock, namely Greenland, Iceland and Norway, manage the stock according to an agreement where the main element are an escapement target and an initial TAC of 2/3 of the final TAC. The coastal states appreciate the work conducted at the benchmark and aim to follow this new approach, however, the present management agreement is likely not revised according to the benchmark before later this year. On behalf of the coastal states, Greenland, Iceland and Norway, I therefore kindly request ICES in its May 2015 advice to provide a catch option according to the present management agreement. Short term by the old rule WKSHORT (ICES, 2009) rejected the model that had been used since 1991 for predicting a quota for the next fishing season. The main reasoning was the value of M=0.035 per month, which is considered too low. Another issue identified by the WKSHORT was the intercept. The model predicts a quota for a fishing season starting in June in year Y, based on indices from autumn survey in year Y-1 and from winter survey in year Y, with the restriction that t have to spawn 1 April in year Y+1 (Gudmundsdottir and Vilhjálmsson, 2002). This means that the spawning stock biomass has to be estimated around 18 months later than the estimates of the juveniles are obtained. An initial quota for the fishing season was then set as 2/3rd of the predicted quota. Since 2011 additionally two other methods have been used to explore the SSB one and a half year after the survey takes place in autumn. Based on the results from the models an initial quota could only be set twice; for the 2011/12 and 2014/15 fishing seasons. Then more caution was also applied, namely 1/2 instead of 2/3 of the predicted quota was set as an initial quota. Like in the last years the three methods will be explored. Projection model. Based on the results from the acoustic surveys in autumn 2014 and from winter 2015 the new data was added to the time-series. Input data is given in table and

8 ICES NWWG REPORT Data from the acoustic surveys in 2004, 2005, and 2011 were not used as they are not considered to be valid due to different reasons, but the main reason being lack of coverage due to drift ice in E-Greenland waters. The updated regressions are shown in Figure By applying this method a zero index for age 1 gives million at age 2 (intercept of 19.44), resulting in a SSB of 280 thousand tonnes at spawning time one and a half year after the survey is conducted and using long term average mean weight at age. The residuals from the regression indicate that the regression performs better at medium and high values than at low values, as then the observed values lie all below the fitted line, which makes it questionable if the regression can be used at low values. This year the index of 1 year old is at the lower range of the zone where the regression is considered to behave better. In the last two years the predictor in regression 2 was in the lower range, contributing to the SSB only with 30 thousand tonnes in last year and nothing the year before. This time the predictor is higher than in the two preceding years, however well below the average. This method estimates the SSB to be almost 920 thousand t in spring 2016 if no fishery takes place (Table ). The contribution of the younger year class is 784 thousand t and the older year class 132 thousand t. Based on this model the predicted TAC for the fishing season 2015/2016 is 519 thousand t. According to the management plan 2/3 rd of it is allocated as an initial quota, that is 346 thousand t. If the same ratio is used as in the last two times this method was applied, then the initial quota would be set as ½ of the predicted quota, resulting in an initial quota of 260 thousand t. The predictor in regression 2 describes the total number of two years old in the stock in autumn Y (2014) (the number of mature and immature at age 2). The immatures are taken as the measured number of immature capelin at age 2 in the acoustic autumn survey. The mature part is however derived by projecting the number mature at age 3 in the winter survey backwards in time to autumn and adding the catches of the same year class taken before the survey. There is then a relation between the total number of capelin at age 2 in autumn to the mature number at age 3, a year later. By using this relation then higher number at age 2 gives higher number mature at age 3 (even though they are already dead). With the negative intercept, low values provide negatively to the SSB! This year the biomass derived from the winter survey was 47% higher than the autumn survey. Theoretically the autumn survey could have been used for setting a final the TAC. Therefore it was decided to explore how the model would estimate the SSB in 2016 if only values from the autumn survey were applied. Applying these values the SSB in 2016 is estimated to be 800 thousand t, whereas the contribution of the younger year class is 776 thousand t and the older year class 23 thousand t. (0 index gives ~260 thousand t). Based on this model the predicted TAC for the fishing season 2015/2016 is 401 thousand t implying an initial quota of 267 thousand t (2/3rd of predicted catch) or 200 thousand t (1/2 of predicted catch). So depending on whether the results from the acoustic surveys in autumn or in winter are used, the estimate of the SSB differ of 116 thousand t, thereof stem 109 thousand t from the older year class. The use of the regression for the older age group must be considered questionable. Using only the contributions from the younger age group the SSB in 2016 would be around 780 thousand t.

9 380 ICES NWWG REPORT 2015 Zero intercept regressions. An alternative procedure to the one above, is to make the regressions go through the origin (figure ). For low indices the residuals have similar pattern as in the projection model, but in the opposite direction. Bigger changes are observed in the residuals for higher indices. This zero intercept regression causes less problems at low index values. For the older age group the regression gives slightly higher values that in the projection model. This method estimates the SSB in spring 2016 to be 863 thousand t if no fishery takes place (675 thousand t for age 2 and 188 thousand t for age 3). (Table ). The high number at age 3 (already dead) in the survey in winter 2015 mean high number at age 2 last autumn, which again mean higher number of mature fish at age 3 next autumn! Simple forward projection. By using a standard ICES procedure (a simple forward projection) it is assumed that the indices are absolute. A natural mortality of M=0.035/month is used, but this assumption of M was, among other things, the reasoning for not endorsing the projection model by WKSHORT 2009 as it was considered too low. This method doesn't involve specific issues when index is low. By assuming no fishery on juveniles in 2014/15 and 2015/16 this method gives a SSB of 626 thousand t in spring 2016 (Table ). Summary. The three methods above estimate the SSB in 2016 to be in the range from thousand t if no fishery takes place (Table ). According to the management plan 400 thousand t have to be left for spawning. This means that approximately thousand tonnes are left for fishing. An initial quota is then calculated on that basis. Due to uncertainties in the projection model and the approach for calculating the TAC, it has been suggested that the fishery should not be opened until after an acoustic survey (in autumn/winter) if the predicted TAC < 500 thousand t (Gudmundsdottir and Vilhjálmsson, 2002).

10 ICES NWWG REPORT References Engilbertsson, V., Óskarsson, G.J. and Marteinsdóttir, G. (201). Inter-annual Variation in Fat Content of the Icelandic Capelin. ICES CM 2013/N:26. Gjøsæter, H., Bogstad, B., and Tjelmeland, S Assessment methodology for Barents Sea capelin, Mallotus villosus (Müller). ICES Journal of Marine Science, 59: Gudmundsdottir, A., and Vilhjalmsson, H Predicting Total Allowable Catches for Icelandic capelin, ICES Journal of Marine Science, 59: Gudmundsdottir, A., and Sigurdsson, Th Growth of capelin in the Iceland-East Greenland- Jan Mayen area. NWWG 2014/WD:29. ICES Report of the Benchmark Workshop on Icelandic Stocks (WKICE), January, ICES Headquarters. ICES CM 2015/ACOM:31. Vilhjálmsson, H. (2007). Impact of changes in natural conditions on ocean resources. Law, science and ocean management 11, 225. Vilhjalmsson, H The Icelandic capelin stock. Capelin, Mallotus villosus (Müller), in the Iceland Greenland Jan Mayen area. Rit Fiskideildar, 13: 281 pp.

11 382 ICES NWWG REPORT 2015 Table Capelin. Acoustic assessment of capelin in the Iceland/Greenland/Jan Mayen area, by r/v Arni Fridriksson 16/9-10/ (Numbers in millions, biomass in tonnes).

12 ICES NWWG REPORT Table Icelandic Capelin. Abundance of age-classes in numbers (109) measured in acoustic surveys in autumn. Year Mon Day age1 age1 age2 age2mat age3 age3mat age4 age5 imm mat imm mat imm Mat mat mat ) ) The number at age 1 was from survey earlier in autumn Scouting vessels searched for capelin. r/s ÁF measured. No samples taken for age determination. Estimated to be < 50 thous. tonnes Only limited coverage of the traditional capelin distribution area.

13 384 ICES NWWG REPORT 2015 Table Icelandic Capelin. Mean weight (g) of age-classes measured in acoustic surveys in autumn. (imm=immature, mat=mature). See footnotes in table Year Mon. age1 Age1 age2 age2 age3 age3 age4 age5 Imm. Mat. Imm. Mat. Imm. Mat. mat mat

14 ICES NWWG REPORT Table Icelandic Capelin. Assessment of mature capelin in the Iceland/EastGreenland/Jan Mayen area, by r/v Arni Fridriksson in January 2015 (Numbers in millions, biomass in tonnes). Age Length W Numbers Biomass Total Total N* Total B (tt) Average W (gr) Average L (cm) %N

15 386 ICES NWWG REPORT 2015 Table Capelin. The international catch since 1964 (thousand tonnes). Winter season Summer and autumn season Year Iceland Norway Faroes Greenland Season total Iceland Noway Faroes Greenland EU Season total Total , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

16 ICES NWWG REPORT Winter season Summer and autumn season Year Iceland Norway Faroes Greenland Season total Iceland Noway Faroes Greenland EU Season total Total * * *preliminary, provided by working group members.

17 388 ICES NWWG REPORT 2015 Table Icelandic capelin. The total international catch of capelin in the Iceland-East Greenland-Jan Mayen area by age group in numbers (billions) and the total catch by numbers and weight (thousand tonnes) in the autumn season (August-December) since Year age 1 age 2 age 3 age 4 Age 5 Total number Total weight

18 ICES NWWG REPORT Table Icelandic capelin. The total international catch of capelin in the Iceland-East Greenland-Jan Mayen area by age group in numbers (billions) and the total catch by numbers and weight (thousand tonnes) in the winter season (January-March) since Year age 1 age 2 age 3 age 4 age 5 Total number Total weight

19 390 ICES NWWG REPORT 2015 Table Initial quota and final TAC by seasons. Fishing season Initial quota Final TAC Landings 1992/ / / / / / / / / / / / / /06 No fishery /07 No fishery / /09 4 No fishery /10 No fishery /11 No fishery / /13 No fishery /14 1 No fishery / ) The final TAC was set on basis of autumn surveys in the season. 2) Indices from April 2003 were projected back to October ) The initial quota was set on a basis of an acoustic survey in June/July ) No fishery was allowed, t was assigned to scouting vessels. 5) Preliminary landings.

20 ICES NWWG REPORT Table Icelandic capelin. The estimated number (billions) of capelin on 1 January since 1979 by age and maturity groups. The total number (billions) and weight (thousand tonnes) of the immature and maturing (fishable) stock components and the remaining spawning stock by number and weight ( March) are also given. Age Age Age Age Age Age Number weight Year Juv. Imm. Mat. Mat. Mat. Mat. Imm. Mat. Imm. Mat. SSN SSB * 17.2* * * * 3.0* * * * preliminary

21 392 ICES NWWG REPORT 2015 Table Icelandic capelin in the Iceland-East Greenland-Jan Mayen area since the fishing season 1978/79. (A fishing season e.g. 1978/79 starts in summer 1978 and ends in March 1979). Recruitment of 1 year old fish (unit 109) are given for 1 August in the beginning of the season. Spawning stock biomass ( 000 t) is given at the time of spawning at the end of the fishing season. Landings ( 000 t) are the sum of the total landings in the season Season (Summer/winter) Recruitment Landings Spawning stock biomass 1978/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 83* /15 61* 517* 460* * preliminary

22 ICES NWWG REPORT Table Rationale Catches (2015/2016) Basis Predicted final TAC t Black regression line, see figure Initial quota, precautionary considerations t Blue line, see figure

23 394 ICES NWWG REPORT 2015 Table Icelandic capelin. Input data for old short term predictions. Abundance at age in numbers (billions). Age1.ac and Age2.imm.ac are measured in acoustic surveys in autumn, September-October. *back* are numbers 1 August, derived from stock projections from winter surveys in January-February. Year Age1.ac Age2.imm.ac Age2.back.mat Age2.back.tot Age3.back.mat

24 ICES NWWG REPORT Table Icelandic capelin. Mean weight at age in autumn, used in the short-term projections. Year age2 age

25 396 ICES NWWG REPORT 2015 Table Icelandic capelin. Outlook for 2015/2016 based on old prediction model. Method Rationale Landings 2015/2016 Basis SSB 2016 Projection model Zero catch 0 No fishing 920 Projection model only younger age group Zero catch 0 No fishing 784 Projection model - all data from autumn survey Zero catch 0 No fishing 800 Zero Intercept Regression Zero catch 0 No fishing 863 ICES Short Term Forecast Zero catch 0 No fishing 626 Projection model Management plan 519 Bescapement 400

26 ICES NWWG REPORT Figure Icelandic capelin. Cruise tracks, relative density and distribution of capelin during an acoustic survey by r/v Arni Fridriksson during 16 September - 10 October 2014

27 398 ICES NWWG REPORT 2015 Figure Icelandic capelin. Indices of immature 1 and immature 2 years old capelin from acoustic surveys in autumn since Figure Icelandic capelin. Survey tracks of r/s Arni Fridriksson during January 2015.

28 ICES NWWG REPORT Figure Icelandic capelin. Distribution of the catches in the fishing season 2014/15 based on data from logbooks of the Icelandic fleet. Figure Icelandic capelin. The total catch (in thousand tonnes) of the Icelandic capelin since 1963/64 by season.

29 400 ICES NWWG REPORT 2015 Figure Estimated final advice according to the proposed stochastic HCR against the measured number of immature capelin ~15 months earlier. The lines indicate the final TAC (unbroken) and the preliminary TAC (broken) when it is set using a Utrigger (red vertical line) of 50 billion immature fish and a cap on the initial TAC of 400 kt. (The figure is taken from the stock-annex, WKICE 2015).

30 ICES NWWG REPORT Regression 1 (black line) and prediction interval showing relation between acoustic index at age 1 and mature capelin at age 2 one year later. Blue line is the zero intercept regression. Regression 2 (black line) and prediction interval showing relation between total number of capelin at age 2 and mature capelin at age 3 one year later. Blue line is the zero intercept regression. Relation between total number at age 2 and 3 in the stock in year Y and mean weight for capelin at age 2 a year later. Relation between total number at age 2 and 3 in the stock in year Y and mean weight for capelin at age 3 a year later. Figure Regressions used in old short-term model.