2019 Super Bowl 53 Betting Guide Rams vs Patriots

Transcription

1 2019 Super Bowl 53 Betting Guide vs Exclusive Prop Betting Stats Team & Player Season Results & Jared Goff Passing Prop Stats Todd Gurley Rushing Prop Betting Stats st, 2 nd, 3 rd, 4 th s Stats * & Alternate s Stats 1 st, 2 nd, 3 rd, 4 th Spread Stats Money Lines & Alternate spread Can t find this at ESPN, Covers, Sportsbook Review! Only Here! All FREE to download as a PDF or visit PropBets.Football for live updates. Player Prop Picks & Score Prediction 1

2 It is the best time of the year! Introduction The Super Bowl is a sports gamblers Christmas. Just like a four your old on Christmas eve it is all I can think about. However, instead of Santa bringing presents, I have a bookie trying to take my money. The bookie is my Grinch. How can I win? Knowledge. The more we know the more likely we are to beat the bookie. In this Super Bowl Betting Guide, you will find over 100 pages of free sports betting information. I hope you use it well. We will even provide you with free prop bet picks & a score prediction. But you should take a look at the data and see if our pick is one you agree with. No touts here. All the information is provided for free in our Super Bowl Betting Guide and on our website PropBets.Football. EXCLUSIVE PROP BET STATS Included are out EXCLUSIVE PROP BET STATS. There is no other website in the world who has this information unless they stole it from us. We tracked every prop bet and every line, to include the alternate lines. That was over 15,000 bets that we tracked just this year in the NFL. prop bet results for: Completions, Interceptions, Touchdown Passes, Passing, Passing Attempts and Rushing. Todd Gurley Stats, Rob Gronkowski Stats, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Sony Michel, James White and more players. You can find ATS results for a game anywhere. But, we have them for each quarter and the half. Not only that, we have money line results and the hardest of betting stat to find. We have the alternative spread line odds, lines and, results. Want more? We also have all the totals for quarters, first half and the game. They include team totals and combined totals. Want more? We also included the alternative half totals and the alternative game totals. ALL FREE. Enjoy and beat that bookie! 2

3 Introduction... 2 New England Kansas City Chiefs Betting Prediction & Prop Bet Picks... 9 Latest Chiefs AFC Championship Betting Trends... 9 New England Prop Betting Preview Julian Edelman WR Chris Hogan WR Phillip Dorsett WR Rob Gronkowski TE James White RB Rex Burkhead RB Sony Michel RB QB Tyreek Hill Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins Chiefs WR Chris Conely Chiefs WR Travis Kelce Chiefs TE Patrick Mahomes Chiefs QB Kareem Hunt Chiefs RB New England Prop Bet Picks Kansas City Chiefs Prop Bet Picks Chiefs Team Prop Bet Picks Los Angeles vs New Orleans Saints Betting Prediction & Prop Bet Picks vs Saints Week vs Saints Conference Championship Preview at Saints NFC Championship Betting Trends Los Angeles Prop Bet Previews Robert Woods WR Brandin Cooks WR Josh Reynolds WR Gerald Everett TE Tyler Higbee TE Todd Gurley RB Jared Goff QB New Orleans Saints Prop Bet Previews

4 Michael Thomas Saints WR Tre Quan Smith Saints WR Ted Ginn Jr Saints WR Benjamin Watson Saints TE Alvin Kamara Saints RB Mark Ingram Saints RB Drew Brees Saints QB Los Angeles Prop Bet Picks New Orleans Saints Prop Bet Picks vs Saints Team Prop Bet Picks vs Saints Betting Predictions: & Spread Betting Stats - Overview Overall Prop Bet Stats Tables Overall ATS Stats Season Overall ATS Stats Season Overall s Stats Season Overall s Stats Season Player Prop Bet Stats Season Player Prop Bet Stats Season Football Betting Tips Top Online Sportsbooks Here are six online sportsbooks that we recommend See a Full List of Online Sportsbook Bonus Codes Here How to Bet in a Sportsbooks First Legal Bet? What are those numbers on the screen? Why the (-110)? Knowing the basic bets Sides Bets Bets Moneyline Bet What is a parlay? How to place your bet How to Bet in at an Online Sportsbooks Fund Your Account

5 How to Bet Online Collect Your Winnings Am I at risk? Why is it tough to gamble online? How to use Bitcoin to Wager How to get started gambling with Bitcoin Get A Wallet Buy Bitcoin Don t have your ID with you? Sending Bitcoins to your wallet Types of Bitcoin Wallets How to buy Bitcoin Sports Betting Affiliate Programs Top Sportsbook Affiliate Programs Football Betting Basics What is a Football Point Spread? Why Football Point Spreads? Some Tips for Point Spread Betting What is a Football s Bet? An example of a totals wager on an NFL game s Betting Tips What is a Football Money Line Bet? Why Bet on the Money Line? Money Line Bet Example Money Line Betting Tips What is a Football Betting Parlay? Simple Parlay Example Money Line Parlay Football Round Robin Parlay Why make Prop Bets on the NFL? It is a relatively simple formula Shop for the Best Betting Line Bet at the Right Time Example of Line Movement: Example of Odds Movement:

6 What is live NFL Betting? Live Betting Lines from Bovada Live Football Betting Strategy Basics Live Betting Lines from Bovada The Middle The Injury Know the Head Coach Look at the Line Play In-Play Betting Exchanges Live Betting Lines from Bovada NFL Live Betting Super Bowl A brief overview of live sports betting What is Live Betting? Why Live Betting Types of Live Betting available for the Super Bowl Super Bowl Live Betting Strategy The First of the Super Bowl KEY NFL MARGIN OF VICTORY NUMBERS MARSHAWN LYNCH RUSHING YARDS TOTAL PASSING YARDS RUSSELL WILSON DOUG BALDWIN TOUCHDOWN LIVE SPORTS BETTING TIPS Football Prop Betting Why make Prop Bets on the NFL? Bovada NFL Betting Odds Using Derivatives for Football Prop Betting Example : Prop Betting Analysis for Super Bowl 50 Using & Peyton Manning About Super Bowl LIII: Future Super Bowl sites: Super Bowl 53 Prop Betting Picks Player Prop Picks New England Sony Michel James White

7 Rob Gronkowski Julian Edelman Chris Hogan Phillip Dorsett Los Angeles Jared Goff Todd Gurley CJ Anderson Gerald Everett Tyler Higbee Brandin Cooks Josh Reynolds Play MyBookie.ag Squares Contest Super Bowl 53 vs Prop Bet Picks & Score Prediction Los Angeles New England Super Bowl: Where, When, Odds Betting Trends New England Betting Preview Los Angeles Betting Preview Super Bowl 53 Betting Predictions BetOnline.ag Bonus Sportsbetting.ag Bonus

8 Los Angeles 27 New England Bets: +3 (-120), Money Line +125, Alt Line -2.5 (+135) at Bovada 58 (-110) at MyBookie, Alt Line 54.5 (+110) at Bovada Super Bowl MVP: Todd Gurley at Bovada See additional late Super Bowl betting predictions on PropBets.Football Super Bowl Online Betting Bonus Tips How to maximize your online sports betting bonus What is BetOnline.ag Bonus Offer? Super Bowl 54 Futures Odds from BetOnline.ag Get your 50% Welcome Bonus frombetonline.ag today Prop Betting Results * Every Bet Player Prop & Team Prop Betting Results from Bovada Prop Bet Stats Player & Team Prop Betting Stats to 171 8

9 New England Kansas City Chiefs Betting Prediction & Prop Bet Picks In Week 6 matchup between Kansas City & New England, the Chiefs lost on the road. Stephen Gostkowski hit a 28-yard field goal as time expired. passed for 340 yards and a touchdown and ran for another score. Rookie running back Sony Michel rushed 24 times for 106 yards and two touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes finished 23 of 36 for 352 yards in his first loss as a starting quarterback, with three of his four TD passes going to Tyreek Hill. With the Chiefs trailing 40-33, he connected with Hill for a 75-yard score that tied the game with just over three minutes remaining. marched the Pats down the field in a series that included a 39-yard completion to Rob Gronkowski to get New England into field-goal range. Last week against the Chargers, the Pats got out to a big early lead in a win. completed 34-of-44 passes for 343 yards and a touchdown. He buried the Bolts early with short passes, most of them to Julian Edelman (9 receptions for 151 yards) and James White (15 receptions for 97 yards). New England scored on each of its first four drives and went to the half with a 35-7 lead. Sony Michel made his postseason debut a memorable one by rushing for 129 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries. New England is 3-3 straight-up in its previous six playoff games as an underdog. New England had been favored in its past 12 playoff games, a streak that dates back to the 2013 AFC Championship Game. The last time the Pats were road dogs was against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in a game they lost The Chiefs were easy winners over Indianapolis last Saturday to end a six-game home playoff losing streak. Patrick Mahomes completed 27-of-41 passes for 278 yards and rushed three times for eight yards and a touchdown. All four of the Chiefs touchdowns came on the ground. Running back Damien Williams rushed 25 times for 129 yards and a touchdown and caught 5-of-6 targets for 25 yards. Tyreek Hill caught 8-of-13 targets for 72 yards and rushed once for a 36-yard touchdown. WR Sammy Watkins (foot) returned with 6 receptions on 8 targets for 62 yards. Over their last two games, the Chiefs defense has allowed just nine total points. The Chiefs defense held the Colts to 263 total yards of offense on Saturday, which was their second-lowest total of the season. Latest Chiefs AFC Championship Betting Trends are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Conference Championships games Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings New England is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England s last 10 games Kansas City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City s last 14 games at home 9

10 New England Prop Betting Preview Julian Edelman WR Julian Edelman remains the lone receiver we can really trust here on the. Edelman led all receivers last week with 13 targets and had a 9 reception 151 yards. Edelman did have a touchdown against these Chiefs earlier this season. He only had 8 targets in that game, but I expect him to get at least 8 if not 10+ this time. Edelman, Julian When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs KC Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving Chris Hogan WR Don t sleep on Chris Hogan this week. The last time he went against the Chiefs he had 4 catches on 4 targets for 78 yards. Hogan, Chris When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs KC Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving

11 Phillip Dorsett WR Phillip Dorsett is a redzone receiver but has yet to put up meaningful yards. Dorsett, Phillip When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs KC Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving Rob Gronkowski TE Last week Rob Gronkowski was used more as a blocker, finishing with just one catch for 25 yards. He might not be the old Gronk but he is in a good spot against the Chiefs. I like him at 4+ receptions & over 55 yards. Gronkowski, Rob When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs KC Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving

12 James White RB Sony Michel ran all over the Chiefs last time and if he gets hot again then there will not be much work for James White, If you like the Chiefs to score a lot then James White is a top pick for receiving yards. If you like the Pats to stay close, then the play is Michel. Receiving When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs KC Rushing When Rushes TDs Rushing Redzone Rushes Rushing vs KC Prop Bet Results When Over Rushing Receiving

13 Rex Burkhead RB Last week Rex Burkhead only had 4 carries but once again vultured a touchdown. Receiving When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs KC Rushing When Rushes TDs Rushing Redzone Rushes Rushing vs KC Prop Bet Results When Over Rushing Receiving

14 Sony Michel RB The Chiefs run defense isn t good, and that s the main case in favor of Sony Michel. I like him to run all over the Chiefs again like he did against the Chargers defense, 24 rushes for 129 yards and 3 touchdowns. Big correlation play. Pats up or close then Michel over on rushing yards. Pats behind then White over on receiving yards. Receiving When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs KC Rushing When Rushes TDs Rushing Redzone Rushes Rushing vs KC Prop Bet Results When Over Rushing Receiving

15 QB and the enter as three-point underdogs in what sets up to be a high-scoring game unless the weather cools things off. The Chargers defense was shredded last week for 343 yards and a touchdown. When these two lasts played the Pats won but only went for 340 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for one as well. The Chiefs rank 12th in pass DVOA but dead last in run DVOA. Passing When Completions Attempts TDs INT All Passes , Red Zone All Passes vs KC Rushing When Rushes TDs Rushing Redzone Rushes Prop Results When Over Completions Attempts TDs INT Pass Distribution Completions Attempts Comp % Avg % Short Right % % Short Left % % Short Middle % % Deep Right % % 15

16 Deep Left % % Deep Middle % % Tyreek Hill Chiefs WR When these two teams met earlier, Tyreek Hill had 7 receptions for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns on 12 targets. In large part this was because the Pats focused on shutting down Kelce. Hill, Tyreek When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets , Red Zone All targets vs NE Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving Sammy Watkins Chiefs WR Last week Sammy Watkins played on 93% of the snaps in his first game back from injury and didn t appear limited at all. Watkins may be the guy if the Pats find a way to cover Hill and Kelce. However, I think he is too hit and miss to put money down on. Watkins, Sammy When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs NE Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving

17 Chris Conely Chiefs WR Chris Conely is an afterthought in the Chiefs offense. However, he is in a good spot for in-play or live betting. I would wait to see how the Pats play the Chiefs in the first quarter. If the Pats have made a commitment to stop Tyreek Hill then Conely is a good in play prop bet on the over for receptions. I know that sportsbooks in Las Vegas are not capable of offering this wager but Bovada does offer it. If do not have an account with Bovada yet, then the banner below or our bonus codes will give you a 50% welcome bonus up to $250. Conley, Chris When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs NE Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving Travis Kelce Chiefs TE The focused on shutting down Travis Kelce last time and Hill made them pay for it. I like them to focus more on Hill this time and make Mahomes throw underneath passes to Kelce. Like him to get 8+ receptions. Kelce, Travis When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets , Red Zone All targets vs NE Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving

18 Patrick Mahomes Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was fairly quiet in last week s win over the Colts, throwing for 278 yards and rushing for a touchdown. The rank league-average against the pass and surrendered 352 yards and four touchdowns to Mahomes earlier this season. The were able to keep Mahomes off the scoreboard in the entire first half of that game, but Mahomes had all four touchdowns in the second half. Passing When Completions Attempts TDs INT All Passes , Red Zone All Passes vs NE Rushing When Rushes TDs Rushing Redzone Rushes Prop Results When Over Completions Attempts TDs INT Pass Distribution Completions Attempts Comp % Avg % Short Right % % Short Left % % Short Middle % % Deep Right % % 18

19 Deep Left % % Deep Middle % % Kareem Hunt Chiefs RB I know he is no longer a part of the team but, he was on the roster the last time these two teams played so it is worth knowing what he did. In week 6 of the 2018 season he had, 10 rushes for 80 yards and 5 receptions for 105 with 1 receiving touchdown. In 2017, the Chiefs blow out the defending Super Bowl champs in a win. Hunt ran 17 times for 142 yards and a rushing touchdown. As a receiver he had 5 receptions for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns. 19

20 New England Prop Bet Picks Using MyBookie.ag odds. MyBookie.ag is available for action everywhere in the US. MyBookie.ag is one of our top NFL sportsbooks that you can bet on from anywhere in the USA online or phone See Sportsbook Reviews. Passing UNDER (-105) Passing Attempts UNDER 37.5 (-105) Completions UNDER 24.5 (-105) Rushing Touchdown YES (+750) Julian Edelman 8+ Receptions (+110) Chris Hogan Receiving UNDER 27.5 (-110) Rob Gronkowski 5+ Receptions (+150) Rob Gronkowski Receiving OVER 42.5 (-125) James White Receiving OVER 52.5 (-140) James White Receptions OVER 5.5 (-185) Sony Michel Rushing OVER 77.5 (-120) 20

21 Kansas City Chiefs Prop Bet Picks Using MyBookie.ag odds. MyBookie.ag is available for action everywhere in the US. MyBookie.ag is one of our top NFL sportsbooks that you can bet on from anywhere in the USA online or phone. See Sportsbook Reviews. Tyreek Hill Receptions UNDER 5.5 (+100) Sammy Watkins Receptions UNDER 4.5 (-110) Sammy Watkins Receiving OVER 58.5 (-120) Travis Kelce Receptions OVER 6.5 (-130) Travis Kelce Receiving OVER 80.5 (-120) Patrick Mahomes Passing OVER (-115) Patrick Mahomes Interceptions OVER 0.5 (-130) Patrick Mahomes Touchdown Passes OVER 2.5 (+100) Chiefs Team Prop Bet Picks I am using several online sportsbooks to get the best price. Since odds can change daily, I would recommend doing a little line shopping. Here are bonus codes to top online sportsbooks. Open an account before the game starts so you can use only the best lines before or during the games. Points OVER 26.5 (-120) MyBookie.ag Longest Touchdown either team OVER 47.5 (-115) MyBookie.ag Touchdowns OVER 2.5 (-150) MyBookie.ag Alternate Game Spread -2.5 (+155) Bovada 21

22 Los Angeles vs New Orleans Saints Betting Prediction & Prop Bet Picks vs Saints Week 9 The reason this game is in New Orleans is that the Saints beat the in Week 9. Michael Thomas caught a late 72-yard touchdown reception and Thomas finished with a club-record 211 yards receiving. Drew Brees passed for 346 yards and four touchdowns Alvin Kamara scored three times, twice on runs and once on a 16-yard catch in the first half. Los Angeles rallied to tie it at 35 with 21 unanswered points in less than 21 minutes, starting with Greg Zuerlein s 56-yard field goal as time expired in the first half. Jared Goff passed for 391 yards and three touchdowns. vs Saints Conference Championship Preview Defensively, Los Angeles allowed 5.1 yards per carry during the regular season. But vs. Dallas, the held the Cowboys to just 50 yards rushing. That was Dallas lowest rushing output of the season, and the fewest yards on the ground L.A. has allowed all year. Defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh was a significant factor in the shutting down the Cowboys ground game as Suh picked up four total tackles. Having cornerback Aqib Talib should help against New Orleans. Talib watched from the sidelines as cornerback Marcus Peters was burnt by Thomas all day. The news wasn t good as an MRI Monday confirmed Saints DT Sheldon Rankins tore his Achilles tendon in Sunday s Divisional Round win. Rankins was a huge presence in the middle of the Saints defense this season, stopping the run and generating pass-rushing heat to the tune of eight sacks. Rankins, the 12th pick in the 2016 draft, out of Louisville, had a breakout year in his third season with eight sacks, 15 quarterback hits, 12 tackles for loss and a forced fumble. He had started 44 straight games, including the playoffs after returning from a broken leg he suffered in his first NFL preseason in Also, Saints left guard Andrus Peat played Sunday despite suffering a broken hand in Week 17 and having surgery during the bye week. Peat had four penalties (including two holding calls). The Saints are 6-0 at the Superdome in the postseason since coach Sean Payton was hired in at Saints NFC Championship Betting Trends Home team is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New Orleans LA is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games LA is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA last 6 games on the road New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games 22

23 Los Angeles Prop Bet Previews Robert Woods WR Robert Woods lead the with eight targets last week. This week the big question is how the will be able to run the ball. I think they will be able to do a better job on the ground and that will eat into Woods targets. Woods, Robert When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets ,219 6 Red Zone All targets vs NO Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving Brandin Cooks WR Brandin Cooks finishing with a 6 receptions 114 yards and one touchdown line on eight targets in his revenge game. There is no reason to think the Saints will be able to do any better against him this time. I don t think he will have as many receptions, but the yardage total should be 65+ yards. Cooks, Brandin When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs NO Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving

24 Josh Reynolds WR Josh Reynolds was held to a single catch last week but he should be expected to see more volume this week as well. Reynolds, Josh When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs NO Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving Gerald Everett TE Tyler Higbee actually saw more targets last week (4) than Gerald Everett (2) and out-snapped him 55 to 34. Everett, Gerald When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs NO Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving

25 Tyler Higbee TE Tyler Higbee actually saw more targets last week (4) than Gerald Everett (2) and out-snapped him 55 to 34. Higbee, Tyler When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs NO Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving

26 Todd Gurley RB Todd Gurley ran for 115 yards and one touchdown on just 16 carries, but it was C.J. Anderson who shined. Rushing for 123 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. Gurley still out-snapped Anderson 45 to 34 and saw more targets in the passing game (2 to 1). A big part of who will get more touches is how close the score is. If you like the Saints to run out to a lead then Gurley getting 5+ receptions is a good bet. If you think it will be close, then Anderson has shown an ability to make tough inside rushes that Gurley would bounce out on. Receiving When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs LAR Rushing When Rushes TDs Rushing Redzone Rushes Prop Bet Results When Over Rushing Receiving

27 Sportsbetting.ag Sportsbook 50% Welcome Bonus 27

28 Jared Goff QB Jared Goff went 15/28 for 186 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions. The committed to the running game and the Cowboys couldn t stop them. The rushed 48 times, and that s why Goff wasn t needed to unleash many passes. When these two met earlier this season with the trailing, Goff threw 40 times for 391 yards and three touchdowns. With the Saints acting as a funnel defense this season (3rd against the run but 22nd against the pass), this feels like a spot where Goff should have tremendous upside. Update, the injury to Sheldon Rankin gives the a chance to run the ball better than last time. I have to like CJ Anderson to get some tough yards in this game and help setup the play action pass. Passing When Completions Attempts TDs INT All Passes , Red Zone All Passes vs NO Rushing When Rushes TDs Rushing Redzone Rushes Prop Bet Results When Over Completions Attempts TDs INT Pass Distribution Completions Attempts Comp % Avg % Short Right % % Short Left % % 28

29 Short Middle % % Deep Right % % Deep Left % % Deep Middle % % 29

30 New Orleans Saints Prop Bet Previews Below you will find regular season stats and player prop betting results. Prop bets are posted as over / under bets so the results will reflect if a player went over the posted number or under the number. Michael Thomas Saints WR Michael Thomas exploded last week for a 12 reception, 171 yard and 1 touchdown game on 16 targets. Thomas was unstoppable in their first meeting with the, with 12 receptions for 211 yards and 1 touchdown on 15 targets against Marcus Peters. However, this week he will be up against Aqib Talib and I expect the to be able to hold down the production for Thomas. Thomas, Michael When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets ,405 9 Red Zone All targets vs LAR Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving Tre Quan Smith Saints WR Tre Quan Smith played on just 30% of the snaps last week (compared to Tedd Ginn s 52%). Smith, TreQuan When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs LAR Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving

31 Ted Ginn Jr Saints WR Tre Quan Smith played on just 30% of the snaps last week (compared to Tedd Ginn s 52%). Ginn, Ted Time Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs LAR Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving Benjamin Watson Saints TE In a close game I like Benjamin Watson to get 3+ receptions and 35+ receiving yards. ** Benjamin Watson is out vs the ** Watson, Benjamin Time Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs LAR Prop Bet Results When Over Receptions Receiving

32 Alvin Kamara Saints RB Last week Alvin Kamara out-carried Mark Ingram 16 to 9 and was out-targeted in the passing game 4 to 2. Alvin Kamara also out-touched Ingram 23 to 10 in their first meeting, with Kamara scoring twice on the ground and once through the air. Given the likelihood that this game remains close, I m siding with Kamara this week. If you are live betting and you see the Saints get to a sizeable lead, then make in game prop bets on Mark Ingram to go over on rushing yards. Receiving When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs LAR Rushing When Rushes TDs Rushing Redzone Rushes Prop Bet Results When Over Rushing Receiving

33 Mark Ingram Saints RB Last week Alvin Kamara out-carried Mark Ingram 16 to 9 and was out-targeted in the passing game 4 to 2. Alvin Kamara also out-touched Ingram 23 to 10 in their first meeting, with Kamara scoring twice on the ground and once through the air. Given the likelihood that this game remains close, I m siding with Kamara this week. If you are live betting and you see the Saints get to a sizeable lead, then make in game prop bets on Mark Ingram to go over on rushing yards. Receiving When Receptions Targets Comp % TDs All targets Red Zone All targets vs LAR Rushing When Rushes TDs Rushing Redzone Rushes Prop Bet Results When Over Rushing Receiving

34 Drew Brees Saints QB Drew Brees wasn t especially sharp last week against the Eagles, but he came alive later in the game to finish with 301 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. This is a home game for Drew Brees and his massive home/road splits with a 21 touchdown to 1 interception ratio. Brees also shredded this defense at home earlier in the season for 346 yards and four touchdowns. If you look at his prop betting results for the season, you will notice he is a solid under play on both passing attempts and completions. That in large part is caused by the Saints having a lead in games and going run heavy in the second half of games. Passing When Completions Attempts TDs INT All Passes , Red Zone All Passes vs LAR Rushing When Rushes TDs Rushing Redzone Rushes Prop Bet Results When Over Completions Attempts TDs INT Pass Distribution Completions Attempts Comp % Avg % Short Right % % Short Left % % Short Middle % % 34

35 Deep Right % % Deep Left % % Deep Middle % % 35

36 Los Angeles Prop Bet Picks Using Fanduel odds because they are first up. If you are in New Jersey check them out. If not, then go with one of our top NFL sportsbooks that you can bet from anywhere in the USA online or phone. See Bonus Codes. Todd Gurley Rushing UNDER 67.5 (-118) C.J. Anderson Rushing OVER 53.5 (-118) Robert Woods Receiving UNDER 74.5 (-118) Brandin Cooks Receiving UNDER 69.5 (-110) Gerald Everett Receiving OVER 21.5 (-118) Tyler Higbee Receiving OVER 18.5 (-118) Jared Goff Passing Attempts UNDER 36.5 (-112) Jared Goff Completions UNDER 23.5 (-112) Jared Goff Passing UNDER (-108) New Orleans Saints Prop Bet Picks Using Fanduel odds because they are first up Alvin Kamara Rushing UNDER 64.5 (-118) Alvin Kamara Receiving OVER 37.5 (-108) Mark Ingram Rushing OVER 39.5 (-108) Michael Thomas Receiving UNDER 98.5 (118) Tre Quan Smith Receiving OVER 26.5 (-108) Ted Ginn Jr Receiving UNDER 53.5 (-118) Drew Brees Passing Attempts UNDER 36.5 (-112) Drew Brees Pass Completions UNDER 24.5 (-112) Drew Brees Passing UNDER (-118) 36

37 vs Saints Team Prop Bet Picks I am using several online sportsbooks to get the best price. Since odds can change daily, I would recommend doing a little line shopping. Here are bonus codes to top online sportsbooks. Open an account before the game starts so you can use only the best lines before or during the games. Best Online Sportsbook Bonus Codes from PropBets.Football Alternative Spread Los Angeles -2.5 (+165) Alternative Game UNDER 53.5 (+120) Points Saints UNDER 30.5 (-125) Margin of Victory 1-6 points (+400) Margin of Victory 7-12 points (+700) vs Saints Betting Predictions: The first game was a wild shootout with the Saints pulling away early and closing out the game with a victory. A few big changes since then. For the Saints, they have lost a big run stuffer in Sheldon Rankins. Combine that with the emergence of C.J. Anderson and the will have the chance to run the ball in this game. On defense for the, they now have Aqib Talib back and that is a big help. Marcus Peters is burnt toast with a big mouth. Talib can handle Michael Thomas and force the Saints to look elsewhere for big plays. I have the sticking to the running game and going play action later in the game for several big plays. I really like Anderson and both tight ends to get plenty of touches in a ball control offense that will keep the Saints offense off the field. For the Saints, the offense has not been that good down the stretch and even a shaky Eagles defense was able to hold them in check. I like Alvin Kamara as a receiving back but when he gets hit hard trying to run the ball he gets scared and will try and bounce every running play wide. In a lower scoring game than last time, I have the winning a close game that will go down to the final minutes. I am making several bets on the & on both regular and alternate betting lines. If you are going to be making prop bets or alt line bets on the game, then check out our exclusive prop & alt line stats on the previous game between the Saints & 37

38 Bets: +3, ML, 57 Score Prediction: 27 Saints 24 38

39 & Spread Betting Stats - Overview Overall Prop Bet Stats Tables These tables contain the overall results for the seasons to include the playoffs. To see every individual bet, go to the Results at the end of the betting guide. There you will find several thousand individual bets that include the: betting line, betting odds, and the win /loss Overall ATS Stats Season Period Type Win Loss Push Spread nd Spread rd Spread th Spread 9 9 First Spread First Money Line First Alt Spread Game Spread Game Money Line 15 3 Game Alt Spread Overall ATS Stats Season Period Type Win Loss Push Spread nd Spread rd Spread th Spread 6 10 First Spread 12 6 First Money Line First Alt Spread Game Spread Game Money Line 13 5 Game Alt Spread

40 Overall s Stats Season Period Type Win Loss Push Combined nd Combined rd Combined th Combined First Combined First Team LAR 10 7 First Team OP 9 8 First Alternate Game Combined 9 9 Game Team LAR 12 6 Game Team OP 10 8 Game Alternate Overall s Stats Season Period Type Win Loss Push Combined 9 9 2nd Combined rd Combined th Combined First Combined 9 9 First Team NE 10 8 First Team OP 6 12 First Alternate Game Combined 7 11 Game Team NE 10 8 Game Team OP 6 12 Game Alternate

41 Player Prop Bet Stats Season Player Bet Event Over Push Jared Goff Completions 9 8 Interceptions 9 8 Passing Attempts 8 9 Passing 10 7 Rushing 3 5 Touchdown Passes Todd Gurley Receiving 4 12 Receptions Rush & Rec 5 6 Rushing 7 9 CJ Anderson Rush & Rec 0 1 Gerald Everette Receiving 4 3 Receptions 2 4 Tyler Higbee Receiving 4 1 Receptions 1 1 Brandin Cooks Receiving 8 9 Receptions 9 8 Josh Reynolds Receiving 2 4 Receptions 2 4 Robert Woods Receiving 7 10 Receptions 8 9 Overall

42 Player Prop Bet Stats Season Player Bet Event Over Push Completions Interceptions 8 9 Passing Attempts Passing 8 9 Rushing 3 6 Touchdown Passes James White Receiving 7 7 Receptions Rush & Rec 8 3 Rushing 3 3 Rex Burkhead Receiving 1 0 Rush & Rec 2 6 Sony Michel Rushing 6 4 Receiving 0 1 Receptions 0 1 Rob Grondkowski Receiving 5 9 Receptions 4 10 Chris Hogan Receiving 8 10 Receptions Julian Edelman Receiving 9 3 Receptions Phillip Dorsett Receiving 4 4 Receptions 4 4 Overall

43 Football Betting Tips Here we will provide some must knows about football for every level of gambler. There are some basics like How to bet in a sportsbook. That sounds obvious but if you have never been in one it can be intimidating the first time. If you would rather stay home and wager then for you, we have How to Bet Online, which will go through the basics of picking a top online sportsbook and opening an account. For those of you who like to use BTC, we have How to use Bitcoin to Wager. If you have some friends who like to bet on sports and you are interested in becoming a bookie. We have How to Become a Sportsbook Affiliated. This is a great way for you to start your career as a Bookie from anywhere in the USA. In Football Betting Basics, we go over the basic terminology needed to make bets and a basic understanding of betting lines. One of the most important aspects of getting the most out of sports wagering is getting the best line. For that we have a short article on Line Shopping and how valuable it really is. If you are going to be watching the Super Bowl and thinking of making a live or in play wagering then we highly recommend you read our article on, Live Football Betting. To let you know we are not some new meat that just discovered sports betting. We have also included our short bet effective Live Betting Guide from Super Bowl 49. Yes, we have been at it for that long. Look at our name, PropBets.Football. No help would be complete without our Football prop betting guide. With that guide we also included a short article from 2017 on using daily fantasy football information for prop betting. 43

44 Top Online Sportsbooks Don t feel like going to New Jersey or Nevada to wager? Maybe you would rather get a massive welcome bonus than spend your money on a hotel room & your flight? You can now bet from anywhere in the USA on your phone or computer so why not take advantage of that? And let s face it. Compared to online sportsbooks, Las Vegas is stuck in the flip phone era. The mobile & apps available online blow away anything in Las Vegas. Even Fanduel and Draftkings are barely average compared to other online sites. The of course there are the 50% welcome bonus offers & free play offers available. But you could spend your time in traffic or an airport and spend a few grand experience of a Las Vegas trip. Here are six online sportsbooks that we recommend o BetOnline.ag * 50% Welcome Bonus up to $1,000 o Bookmaker * Top Sportsbook for Whales o Bovada * 50% Welcome Bonus up to $250 o MyBookie * 50% Welcome Bonus up to $1,000 o Sportsbetting.ag * 50% Welcome Bonus up to $1,000 o 5Dimes * Top Sportsbook for Professionals See a Full List of Online Sportsbook Bonus Codes Here 44

45 How to Bet in a Sportsbooks Now that there is momentum for legalizing sports wagering it is time to get in on the action. Maybe you have bet online with an offshore bookie or you went to your local sports bar for a little informal wagering but now you want to go to a real sportsbook and make a bet. I will layout the basics from reading a betting line to what you should say to the sportsbook writer. I will also touch on some advanced wagering terms. To get a little deeper in depth on a particular sport I have set up individual betting guides to get you started. First Legal Bet? The first time I walked into a sportsbook in Las Vegas I was just 8 years old so for me walking into a sportsbook is second nature. I should say that you should not do what my grandfather did and take your 8-year-old to a sportsbook. He quickly learned that is not allowed and security had him take me to the cafe and eat while he made his bets. However, I returned as soon as I was legal and played sports betting my occupation as an adult. As a casual sports fan you are most likely a little familiar with the concept of sports betting, but when you walk into a sportsbook for the first time and see a lot of TV s and an enormous electronic board filled with all kinds of numbers it is easy not to know what to do next. All you want to do is put down a $100 on the New York Yankees but how do I do it? You could ask one of those fat guys yelling at the TV or you can read on and walk in with some confidence. What are those numbers on the screen? 103 New York Giants -7.5 (-110) -400, 43.5 o(-110) 104 New York Jets 7.5 (110) 375, 43.5 u(-110) Walk into a sportsbook or look on your phone and you will see something similar to this. Rotation Number: The 103 & 104 are the rotation number and are used for a quick reference for the sportsbook writer to know which team to enter into the computer. It might not seem necessary but with hundreds of games on the board everyday it is impossible for the sportsbook writer to know which number to enter into the computer by just giving him the name of the team. Team Names: Usually next to the rotation number and is how most people look up betting lines. Just look for the team name and to the right of it will be the game betting lines and to the left will be the rotation number. Betting Lines: The next number up is 7.5. For football this will mean 7.5 points. If a minus sign is in front of the number, then that team is favored and is giving the points while no minus sign (they never use a + sign) means the team is the underdog and getting points. 45

46 Money Lines: The next number up is the money line odds. If you are betting on a team to just win or lose this is the odds on your bet. For the favored Giants you will have to bet four dollars to win one dollar. s Line: The totals or over/under line is the same for both teams and the over or under will usually have a o or u in front of the number. In this case the over is listed with a o(-110). Why the (-110)? This is how the sportsbooks make money. The usual difference is 10 percent, meaning for every $10 you hope to win, you must wager $11. One guy bet $110 to win $100 on the Giants -7.5 while another guy bets $110 to win $100 on the Jets The Giants win the game by a score. Since they won by 11 points the guy who bet on the Giants will cash his ticket for a total of $210. The $110 he bet plus the $100 win. The guy who bet on the Jets just lost $110. That means the sportsbook paid out $100 and took in $110. That $10 is the operating revenue for the sportsbook and is called the juice or the vig. On money line bets the vig comes from the difference in odds on both teams. The Giants were -400 and the Jets were The vig would be the 25 difference between the two odds. Knowing the basic bets No matter the sport, there are basic types of bets. They sometimes go by different names depending on the sport, but they re pretty much the same thing. Sides Bets This is the point spread bet that most people wager on. In football it is given as a number such at the New York Jets -7 points. In basketball the spread can be the Golden State Warriors -14 vs the New Jersey Nets. For this basketball betting line, the New Jersey Nets would be +14 points. The number in this type of bet is the points given to the underdog and taken away from the favorite. The negative number is for the favorite and positive for the underdog. For instance, if the New York Jets is listed at -7 and you bet on them, that means it s not enough for them simply to win the game. They must win by more than 7 points for your wager to be a winner. Even if they win the game, but only by 6 points, your bet would be a loser. Note that if they won by exactly 7 points you wouldn t lose. But you wouldn t win, either. That s called a Push and you simply get your money back. In baseball the side is often called a Run Line and in hockey a Puck Line. In both of these bets the standard line is -1 1/2 runs or goals. For an MLB game if you bet on the Yankees run line (-1.5) then they would have to win by at least 2 runs to win your bet. On the other side of this bet is the chance to take a dog and get 1.5 runs. Of course, your odds or return on your bet will be reduced by doing this but we go deeper into that in our Baseball Betting Guide. 46

47 Bets This is the bet most folks known as the Over/. Bookmakers estimate the total number of points, runs or goals both teams will score combined. The bet is on will the total be either higher or lower than their estimate. The total line is usually set as a half point to prevent ties. In an NFL game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins the total is set at 43.5 points. If the two teams combine for 44 or more points you win but, if they combine for 43 or fewer points you lose. Moneyline Bet This is the simplest bet of all. You simply wager on one team to beat the other. You don t care about margin of victory, you don t care how many total points are scored, all you care about is which team wins. This is how sports wagering began. Just pick the winner and cash your ticket. Why not just stick to this type of betting? The odds. If one team is perceived to be better, then they will have reduced odds. Let s say the Giants are 7-point favorites over the Eagles. This means that if you bet on the Giants, they would have to win by 8 points or more for you to win your bet. Why not just take the Giants on the money line? Because the sportsbook would offer a reduced payout on betting on a favorite. In this case, the Giants would also be -500 on the moneyline. This means for a $100 bet you would only win $20 plus get your $100 back. Not the kind of action most gamblers want. That is one reason you will see a lot of sports bettors who make money line bets will often parlay them. What is a parlay? A parlay is when you tie multiple selections into one bet. Why make a parlay bet? A bigger return than making straight bets. Let s take a look at the difference between a three-team parlay bet and three straight bets: Dallas Cowboys -4.5 (-110) New York Giants -2.5 (-110) New England +7.5 (-110) With this three-game parlay, every single selection that you added to it has to win for you to win your parlay. If any of these games lost, then you lose your entire parlay. If you straight bet each of these games with $110 then each win would return $100. Get all three right and you win $300. A good day. However, if you bet just $100 on all three in a parlay and you get all three right then you win $600. This is why parlay betting is so popular. You can win a lot of money fast. The downside of parlay betting? What if you can two out of the three games right? On straight bets you would have won $200 on your winning bets and lost $110 on your losing bet which would mean a profit of $90 dollars for the day. If you get two out of three right on a parlay bet, you lose it all. Most parlay betting is done with parlay cards that have fixed odds if you win. 47

48 How to place your bet Now it s time to make a bet. You have walked into the book and you know who you want to bet on and how much to bet. The next step is to find your team on the betting board and look up the rotation number. You will need that because you don t want to waste your time standing at the betting window while you and the sportsbook writer try and find the number. The best thing to do is write the number down on paper. In fact, go to the betting sheets with all of the betting numbers on it and grab one and use it as scratch paper for your betting. What is the sportsbook writer expecting from you? The first thing he wants to know is if it is a straight bet or a parlay bet. This is because straight bets and parlay bets are on different screens on his computer and he has to enter your bet on the right screen. If it is a parlay bet and you do not tell him, he will have to start over when you give him the second team. What else does he want to know? That rotation number and the amount you want to bet. Thats about it. He really doesn t care if you re a fan or if you are certain who will win. All he wants to do is take your bet and move the line. When you bet just say something like, straight bet on 104 for $110. That is, it, you are done. Well maybe. If you want a free drink this is the time to ask for a drink toke. You may not get one depending on the sportsbook rules on comps, but this is the time to ask. 48

49 How to Bet in at an Online Sportsbooks The legality of online sports betting is in limbo as to what is sports wagering. Does daily fantasy sports fit in a grey area or is it illegal. The US Government hasn t gone after online sports betting like they did online poker, yet some betting sites have stopped taking US customers as a precaution. There are still quality offshore operations that are willing to take your bets and pay out your winnings. If you want to know how to bet online, then we will tell you the steps necessary but it is up to you if you choose to make the next step. See our sport specific betting guides if you are interested in just learning about one sport. This is not an endorsement of skirting the legal/illegal line of betting online. We are not lawyers and we do not know what jurisdiction you live in. Our goal is to help guide you through the process so if you do decide to wager online you have the best opportunity of succeeding. If you follow these instructions, you ll limit the risk of getting ripped off and increase your risk of getting paid when you win. Fund Your Account The most common options are a wire or a credit card. If you use Western Union or Moneygram, your money should be loaded to your account in an hour. The other option is to use a VISA credit card. It s like shopping online. For online casinos using a credit card is preferable to Western Union and Moneygram because the minimum deposit is lower, and the sites don t charge fees. Please check the fine print on customer deposits. Make sure your jurisdiction is accepted and check for fee waivers based on the amount and type of deposit. How to Bet Online Start small. Get used to the interface and check different online sportsbooks for different odds. If you are going to be gambling everyday then it is worth it to open account at several online casinos and take advantage of different specials. Collect Your Winnings This is the most important thing. You win and now you want to get paid. Each of the online casinos offers different payout options. Read each one and see which one fits your bets. Getting a check in the mail might sound good but these checks are written on non-us banks and your bank may place a long hold on them. Am I at risk? From your government? Always, but that applies to a lot of things besides wagering. If your government decides to go after online casinos like they did online poker sites, then you re going to take a hit. My advice for the risk adverse is to have several accounts so the likelihood of all your money being tied up is lessened. I would also recommend a monthly withdrawal of your funds, so you do not have too much offshore at any given moment. 49

50 Why is it tough to gamble online? The Wire Wager Act and the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA). Basically, the federal laws banning gambling have so far applied to gambling businesses in the United States, not individuals. State laws that do specify that gambling is illegal for individuals have no power to regulate the internet because of the Constitution. Judging by the fact that the feds haven t made any movement toward shutting down online casinos & sportsbooks it looks like the US Government has other priorities. This can always change with a new administration so stay abreast of the news. Remember, when the US Government shut down the poker sites they did not go after individual players, they went after the gambling businesses. Player deposits were frozen for a while but eventually returned. 50

51 How to use Bitcoin to Wager Think about betting on your favorite sports. Now, take the lengthy banking processes out of the picture. Replace it with a simple transaction made with Bitcoins. Welcome to the digital world of online gambling. That s Bitcoin betting in a nutshell. Are you an experienced gambler looking to use Bitcoin or a new one looking for the easiest way to get started? Either way we have a Bitcoin sports betting guide to get you started. How to get started gambling with Bitcoin Get A Wallet A wallet is a place to keep your bitcoin until you spend them. Getting one is easy! Simply go to the app store and download one to your smartphone. Breadwallet: is easy to use, has enhanced security features and is among the most recommended wallets for both Android and ios. Look no further! Blockchain: is widely known and used by Bitcoin professionals. Easy to open and manage online. Buy Bitcoin You can buy Bitcoin instantly with your credit/debit card through a regulated exchange. Regulated exchanges are extremely safe, but they usually require a picture of your ID to create an account. It may take a little while for them to verify your identity, but once that s done you will be able to make instant purchases! The exchanges that have earned high ratings for safety and customer s satisfaction (information subject to change so please verify before opening an account). A good one to start with is Kraken or Coinbase. Don t have your ID with you? You can buy Bitcoin using your Credit Card without supplying any ID through Bitcoin.com, but the funds can take up to 24 hours to arrive in your wallet. You can also view our full list of buying options below. Sending Bitcoins to your wallet Some exchanges will ask for your wallet address before you make a purchase. If not, you ll need to send your Bitcoin from your exchange account to your wallet. Don t worry, it s easy! 1. Select Send Bitcoin in your exchange account 2. Copy & paste (or type) your wallet address into the input field and click Send. Congratulations! 51

52 If you made it this far, you re an official Bitcoin user. You re ready to start spending Bitcoin! Not only on gambling but on a variety of companies that now accept Bitcoin. If you really become a Bitcoin enthusiast, then you can begin online shopping with your Bitcoins or even go to a Bitcoin ATM and withdraw money. Good luck and below is a list of online sportsbooks that accept Bitcoin. Types of Bitcoin Wallets Mobile Wallets: Mobile wallets are downloaded directly to your smartphone from the app store and they usually provide enhanced security features. They also enable QR code capability, which allows for instant payments. Desktop Wallets: Desktop wallets need to be downloaded directly to your computer. They are generally less recommended than mobile wallets because desktops are at a higher risk of being infected by malware that might steal your bitcoins. Some, like those listed below, provide enhanced security features to help mitigate those risks. Online Wallets: Online wallets are accounts that you create online in order to store and manage your bitcoin. These are the least safe of all wallets, as they have a history of being hacked or of disappearing overnight with all of their users bitcoins. Some exchanges provide an online wallet when you create an account to purchase bitcoins, but even these are at risk of being hacked. We recommend sending your bitcoin to a downloaded wallet as soon as they ve been purchased. Paper Wallets: Paper wallets are great for storing large amounts of bitcoin for long periods of time. They are among the safest types of wallet, because they are completely offline and cannot be hacked. To get a paper wallet, you need to generate a wallet address at org or Blockchain.info. Once you have the address, you print it out on a piece of paper with your private key. You can then send bitcoin to this address. Make sure to keep the paper in a place that is safe and dry! A safety deposit box is recommended. Hardware Wallet: These are small devices that you can purchase for the sole purpose of storing and managing bitcoin. They are secure for storing large amounts of bitcoin, but also good for sending and receiving transactions online. They re generally a great option, but only worth the investment if you plan on becoming a big bitcoin user. How to buy Bitcoin Regulated Exchanges: Buying from a regulated exchange is like buying currency from a bank. Regulated exchanges are a safe and simple way to buy your bitcoin online. Most of them require a picture of your ID to make a purchase, but once this is validated, the entire process can be completed within minutes. Peer to Peer Exchange: Peer to peer exchange sites are similar to Air BnB: the site will put you in contact with someone, but the transaction happens between the two of you. LocalBitcoins.com is a good place to find people who are selling their bitcoin around the world. When you purchase from a 52

53 peer, you can potentially buy bitcoin using cash, making it effectively untraceable. Some sellers ask for ID to protect themselves against fraud. Similarly, you should protect yourself by only choosing sellers who have a solid reputation based on past transactions. Read their rating before you buy! Bitcoin ATM: Bitcoin ATMs are easy to use and are extremely safe. You can look for one near you using CoinATMradar.com. If you find one in your area, this is what you should expect: Some machines may ask for ID before allowing you to make a purchase, but others do not. You will need to provide the bitcoin address to which you want to send funds. You will then be asked to insert cash into the ATM. Lastly, you ll need to verify your address and confirm the transaction. Your bitcoin will be sent instantly once this is done. 53

54 Sports Betting Affiliate Programs Love sports? Want to make money off of a 100 billion dollar plus industry? It is fun to make money betting but there are other ways to make money off of the sports betting industry. There are sites that pick winners, that give unique stats, that have inside information on players. But, how do you monetize these sites? Sports betting is now legal outside of Nevada in the USA and this NFL season it will be the number one topic on all sports shows. That is millions of dollars in free advertising. However, most people are unaware of a very important point about online sports wagering in the USA? That outside of Nevada, New Jersey, Delaware and, Mississippi. There will likely not be an opportunity to make a bet on sports from an onshore sportsbook. That means that most of the country will either have to travel every weekend or they will bet from home with an offshore sportsbook. What does this mean for you? A chance to make big bucks as a Sports Betting Host. You will work just like a Las Vegas casino host expect that you will be working online. You will recommend which online sportsbook a customer should bet with and get paid for your referrals. Get started now with these top online sportsbooks. Just click on the links below for more information on how to get started today!! Top Sportsbook Affiliate Programs WebPartners Affiliate Prorgam See commissions & sportsbooks CommissionKings Affiliate Program See commissions & sportsbooks Earn money on the Super Bowl, March Madness, NBA, College Football, Soccer and even cricket. Learn the business and grown your own program. 54

55 Football Betting Basics How to bet on football. Every year people lay billions of dollars in football bets without the most basic understanding of how to bet on football. Our guide to football betting covers the basics of what is a money line and what is a point spread. Below we cover the most common football bets. What are the bets and what are the strategies you need to know to get started betting on the NFL & College Football? 1. What is a point spread? 2. What is a money line? 3. What is a game total? 4. What is a parlay bet? What is a Football Point Spread? The theory with point spreads is that you re not actually betting on which team will win the game, you re betting on which team will cover the spread. The favorite has to win by at least a certain number of points for a wager on them to payout and the underdog can lose the game but still cover the spread. To put it simply. The favorite will have points deducted from its final score and the underdog will have points added to its final score. Once the points are added/removed, the winner will be decided. Here s an example of a point spread on an NFL game between the Raiders and the Bronco. The Raiders are 6-point underdogs. This means that they will be getting 6 points added to their final score. The Broncos are -6 points which means that they will have 6 points deducted from their final score. You can choose to bet on the Raiders and get the points or on the Broncos and give the points. Most point spread bets have odds set at This means that you will need to bet $110 to win $100. This is how the sportsbooks make their money. If you have two people betting on opposite sides. One bets $110 on the Raiders +6 and the other bets $100 on the Broncos -6. The Broncos win by 7. This means the guy who bet on the Raiders loses his $110. The guy who bet on the Broncos wins $100 & gets his $110 back for a total of $210. Since both guys bet $110 the total bet was $220 & the total payout was $210. The profit for the sportsbook was $10. Why Football Point Spreads? Some games are expected to be close. However, there are also games that are expected to be blowouts. The point spread has a way of leveling out the expected outcome of a game. In a college football game Alabama might be playing Tulsa. Everyone knows Alabama is the better team and will easily win so why watch the game? What if I gave you Tulsa and 42 points? Now are you interested? This is the essence of the point spread. To make as many games as possible interesting to football fans. The more games that are interesting the more action on the games. 55

56 Some Tips for Point Spread Betting Handicapping does not require a degree in mathematics. If you watch the games and get a feel for how teams will perform that gut instinct can payoff. I am not dismissing math. Some basic research can help. How do teams do on the road vs at home. How have they done against the spread so far. The sportsbooks aren t perfect, but they are good at what they do. If you are betting on 15 or 20 games each week you are not betting on football you are playing the lottery. We will go over some basics in parlay betting later that might help you out if you like to bet on a lot of games. Never buy into the hype. The most obnoxious hype machine in sports is ESPN. They have an endless amount of talking heads. Every week they will try to outdo each other in sucking up to whoever is hot and castigating whoever is down. The only reason to listen to them is to get an understanding of what the public will hear. Look at betting on college football. The NFL gets the most attention and the most action. This means a sportsbook manager can take a big loss if he puts out a bad NFL line. However, in college football there is less bet so a lose line will not create the same risk. Winning a bet on San Jose State vs San Diego State counts just as much as winning the Monday Night Football game. I am not saying to ignore the NFL. I just like that there are 50+ college football games up each week and I only have to find two or three soft lines to make money. What is a Football s Bet? The most common bets on the NFL are point spread and total wagers. You ll want to consider other wagers, however there is money to be made from sticking to just these two. Regardless of how many different types of wager you end up betting on. These are the two you should begin with. s wagers are also known as over/under bets, which is perhaps a better description of what they are. Quite simply, they involve betting on whether the total number of points scored in a game will be over or under a posted number. An example of a totals wager on an NFL game. Let s say the are playing the Saints. The sportsbook has a total of 44.5 points. This means the combined score of BOTH teams is added together to make a total and decide who won the bet. If the final score is 28 & Saints 24. The total combined score is 52 points and it will go over the total. s are like point spreads in that the odds are usually -110 on each side. It is not uncommon to see odds at -120 because heavy action on one side forces the sportsbook to adjust the odds. s Betting Tips One good thing about totals betting is that every NFL game will have a totals number posted. That in itself helps out. If you like a game, then you know there will be a bet available. Just like betting on the point spread there is room for a gut reaction in totals betting. If you look at the line and you think it is completely wrong. This is a chance to make some money. Maybe the sportsbook has 39.5 points listed and you like both offenses to score a lot. Then there is a chance to bet the over. 56

57 Time to do a little shopping. Not for clothes but for the best line. It is not uncommon for one sportsbook to have a total of 40.5 and another might have If you ve decided to be the under, then there s a clear advantage in betting under 40.5 rather than What is a Football Money Line Bet? The money line is the easiest wager in sports. Betting the money line for a football game is simply betting on which team you think is going to win. There is no point spread involved. Whichever team you select has to win outright for a wager to be successful. In the unlikely event of a tie, your bet will be returned. In most football games there is a favorite and an underdog. Very occasionally there are games where the two team are completely evenly matched, but for the most part one team is favored over the other to win. Why Bet on the Money Line? Why not just bet on the favorites? Well, the sportsbooks reduce the payouts or odds for a favorite. When we went over point spreads the odds were set at -110 for both teams. On money line bets it is rare for both teams to be at The favorite will usually take more money bet to get the $100 win. Money Line Bet Example For an example lets have the Cowboys playing the Giants. The Cowboys are -6 points, so they are the favorites. The Giants are +6 points, so they are the underdogs. Instead of betting on the points I decide I want to bet on the Giants to win the game outright. The money line odds for this game are the favored Cowboys -400 and the underdog Giants This means a $100 bet on the Giants would win $300 & get my $100 bet back. On the other side if I took the Cowboys at A $100 bet would only win $25. You can see the advantage of betting on the underdog s money line. Of course, if the Cowboys win the game by 3 points. I would lose a bet on the money line that I would have won if I had taken the points. So, be careful. They are a dog for a reason. Money Line Betting Tips There is one spot I like to bet the money line on NFL games. That is if the point spread is less than 3 points. If a team is an underdog getting 2.5 points, I will take them on the money line. The reason is that most games in the NFL are decided by 3 points or more. Instead of taking a team at +2.5 at I will take them on the money line at Be selective and only bet when you have justified reasons to do so. If you like several favorites but do not like the low payouts of a money line bet. Take a look at our parlay betting section to see how you can make more money betting on favorites on the money line. What is a Football Betting Parlay? A parlay bet combines several bets for a bigger payout. The more teams you take on a parlay bet the bigger the payout. The problem with this is the more teams you have the more likely you are to lose. In most parlay bets you only need to get one wrong to lose the whole bet. 57

58 The most common type of parlay bet is the points spread with a total bet on the same game. Simple Parlay Example An example of this bet would be a game between the and Falcons. The Falcons are 7-point favorites and the total is set at If you like the and the over. Then the parlay bet would bet +7 & over If you are right on both and each has odds of Then your win on a $100 bet would bet $260 plus your $100 bet back. Not bad. betting $100 and winning $260. Of course, if either bet is wrong the parlay is a loser. This means the final score could be 23 & Saints 14. This would be a loser because the total is only 37 points. Money Line Parlay As I mentioned earlier. Betting on the money line favorites can produce winners but not a lot of money. Remember betting on the Cowboys at -400 on the money line means that a $100 bet on them would only win $25. Now, money line parlay bets can bump this up. What if two favorites were both on the money line. Then betting them on the parlay would win $125 on a $100 bet. Of course, if either favorite loses then you lose the bet. Football Round Robin Parlay What if you like 6 games? Betting them all on a parlay would have a big payout. However, if just one team did not cover then the whole bet is lost. I have seen many parlays go down in flames when a bettor got 4 out of 5 or 5 out of 6 right. There is a way to bump up the return and minimize the risk. It is called a round robin parlay. A round robin breaks down the parlay bet into several smaller bets. If I like 6 games and I round robin my parlay by 2 s. I am making 15 different bets on one betting ticket. I would be taking every two-team combination of parlay bet. By breaking it down like this it will minimize the losses because all I need is for 2 teams to cover to get some of my money back. Of course, the down side is that if I am right on all 6 games I will not win as much. But, remember if I am right on all 6 games. I will still win 15 two team parlays. The same thing can be done for round robin parlays on 3, 4, 5 teams. A good insurance move is to bet the 6 teams on a round robin of 5. This would mean you are making 6 five team parlay bets so if one team does not cover. You would still win with 5 out of covering. Why make Prop Bets on the NFL? Why are some prop bets considered easier than side/totals bets on NFL games? The Sportsbooks often offer props as a marketing tool rather than as a means of profit. Think of how many times you have heard of some crazy prop bet on the news. That is free advertising for the casino. Because of the large number of prop bets offered on NFL games there really isn t the time available to spend on each one. Think of it, the line maker still has other sports to put up lines on like the NHL, NBA, MLB etc. That is why prop bets are more a formulaic practice than actual line making. How is a line made for the over/under betting on how many passing yards a quarterback will have? 58

59 It is a relatively simple formula. The average passing yards per game multiplied by (opposing defenses average passing yards allowed after / the leagues average passing yards allowed) Of course, this alone can be misleading if the quarterback had one huge passing game and distorted the average passing yards per game. This is why the median must be developed. The median is the middle number of passing yards by the quarterback. If there is an even number of games, then add the two middle numbers together and divide by two. After that compare the medium to the mean to determine which is a more accurate portrayal of the quarterback s performance. An example of the medium and the mean for a quarterback from s passing yards for the first 5 games of the 2015 season. 312 yards 275 yards 358 yards 466 yards 288 yards The mean is 339 (this is the total number of yards divided by the number of games). The median is 312 (this is the number in the middle of the range of numbers). A quick analysis is needed to decide which is better: mean or median? If we see that he had 466 yards because he was in a shootout with the Bills and was forced to throw the entire game, it explains why the average (mean) is higher. But both are relatively close. For the year averaged 298 per game. Now you have a guide to look at when the number comes out for your prop bet. The next step would be to take either the medium or the mean and complete the formula by the defense allowed part of the formula. For some this will seem like quite a bit of math, but the important point is this is about all the sportsbook manager will do when it comes to setting a line. With over 70 prop bets on your average NFL game and hundreds available on playoff games this quick calculation is all he has time for. He will offset the lack of a true line by adding to the vig (often -115 / -115), and reduced betting limits. The reduced limits and general lack of action does one more thing to the line. It can move the line with far less money being bet on one side. For example, someone bets $500 wager Manning to throw for less than 280 yards at The line might move to (-105 / -125). The move will depend on how much action there is on the line. Because these lines are often automated and do not require the sportsbook manager to set the line. All he has to do is approve the computers line move. The important thing to take away is there will be many variations in the line at different books. This is unlike the side/total which is heavily bet and tends to settle within a point. 59

60 Shop for the Best Betting Line Would you pay $500 for a phone on ebay when the same phone is for sale at $400 on Amazon? It happens all the time in sports betting. Every day I see people bet on a team at -7 in their favorite sportsbook when another book is offering the same team at It is not just the off numbers but key numbers like; 3,4,6,7, and 10 are routinely different. In College Football the lines are more likely to be different than on an NFL game. If you are going to Las Vegas and you are going to bet a parlay. Then do yourself a BIG favor and pick up the parlay cards. There will be line movement between when the cards come out on Thursday and kickoff on Saturday or Sunday. What really drove this home for me is I hit a six-team parlay because of line shopping. I had one team on my parlay bet that had the line move from +4.5 down to +3 off the board. However, on one parlay card (thanks Harrah s) they had the parlay card out with a I took the time to round robin off the bet by (3,4, 5) and it paid off big with a six for six when they lost by four points. If you are betting online, it only takes a few seconds to see if there is a line difference. Bet at the Right Time The public will usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites and the over. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from the public on favorites. While this obviously will not happen in every game it is one-way professionals use to help the ROI. Lines movements are something you should get used to following. Example of Line Movement: Line opens at: Redskins vs Cowboys 6.5 (-110) Line Change: Redskins vs Cowboys -7 (-110) The Cowboys are favored by 6.5 points and the odds are (-110). This means the Cowboys would need to beat the Redskins by 7 points or more to cover. The (-110) means you need to bet $110 to win $100. On the other side you could take the Redskins +6.5 at (-110). If the Redskins win the game straight up or lose by 6 or fewer points. The Redskins cover the bet. The line change was to 7 points. This means that if you bet on the Cowboys, they would need to win by 8 or more points to win your bet. The Redskins would either need to win straight up or lose the game by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread. If the Cowboys win the game by exactly 7 points the game would be a push and all straight bets would be refunded. If there is a lot of early action on the Cowboys, then the sportsbook has a choice to make. They can either change the line or the odds. On key numbers (3,4,6,7) they are more likely to change the odds than the number. 60

61 Example of Odds Movement: Redskins (+100) vs Cowboys -6.5 (-120) The (-120) changes the odds on the game while keeping the line the same. In this situation you would need to bet $120 to win $100 if you take the Cowboys. If you take the Redskins a $100 bet would net you a $100 win. If the money still is going on the Cowboys, then the next move is likely to be the betting number (6.5). 61

62 What is live NFL Betting? Instead of traditional sports betting options that must be bet prior to the game or between halves or quarters live betting allows players to bet with updated odds updated constantly. In an NFL game the odds can change on every play. Live Betting Lines from Bovada Live betting opens up a large number of wagering opportunities that are not available in any other forms of betting. Bettors will be able to wager on the outcome of a drive, or individual play, and player prop bets that are updated constantly. Such as, Cam Newton passing yards for the game will be adjusted up or down based on what he has done so far in the game. If he is off to a slow start, then then over under for passing yards in the game will be adjusted downward. Also, more traditional forms of way wagering, such as point spreads and totals will be updated as the game unfolds, allowing players to bet with updated odds. These can include first half totals, game totals and even quarter totals and sides Betting on the outcome of a drive, like will the Broncos score a touchdown on this series will refresh after each play with updated odds. If the quarterback gets sacked for a 5-yard loss, making it 3rd and 8, the odds will increase. This is just one of the bets offered on a typical live betting menu during an NFL game. Live Football Betting Strategy Basics Live Betting Lines from Bovada Top Online Sportsbook offer from Sportsbetting.ag to build your bankroll 50% First Deposit Bonus The Middle A middle is a gambler taking advantage of a change in the line to get both sides of a game. In nonlive betting this would mean going to two different books or making a halftime bet if he got the right odds. An example would be if he got the Arizona Cardinals at +7 before the game and the game had a halftime score of Arizona 14 Denver 10. If the bookmaker, then placed a halftime line of the Broncos -5 in the second half. He could take the Broncos and be able to win both bets. Final score the Broncos win the game by more than 1 point he wins the halftime bet. Final score the Cardinals win the game or lose by less than 7 points he wins pre-game bet. If the Broncos win by 6 points (20-14) then he wins both bets. This bet is one I will do if I want to lock in a profit and I can get key numbers; 3,4,6,7,10. 62

63 Applying to live football betting. This is easier to do with live betting than it is with halftime betting. The reason is the bookmaker will have this strategy in mind when he is laying a second half line. He does not want to lock in a profit for a lot of big players so he will try to offer a line that might not be right in his expectation as to what will happen in the second half, but it will prevent middling. In live betting it is a computer program that sets the bets and it is working on an algorithm based on what will be needed to get equal action of both sides of this particular bet and not the action on the whole game. The Injury You might expect the live lines to be taken down when an injury occurs. In football, other than to a quarterback the lines are not brought down or suspended because of injury. This is where a little pregame research can go a long way. I have made significant money off of this. An area I like to research is the defensive backs. A situation I look for is a team that has several injuries to the reserve defensive backs or maybe one starter. This does not seem like such a big deal and will not move the line before the game. But I have found that if a team is already thin in the secondary and then loses a couple of more players. This will not only alter the ability of the defense to defend the pass but will also alter the offensive play calling. In one game I knew that both backup safeties were hurt, and the team had a guy off the practice squad and another they had waived earlier in the year and these were the only backup safeties they had. Well, both starts got nicked and when they went down the deep passes were wide open. It doesn t happen often but there are certain positions to look at the will alter a game plan and not alter the line. When I am making live bets, I always look at the starting and reserve defensive backs and offensive tackles. If I know a team has no depth at offensive tackle and I see a starter lying on the ground holding his knee It is time to look at the under and a side bet on the other team Know the Head Coach Some teams can get out to an early lead and then poor it on (New England ) and other teams will get out to a big lead and become so conservative that they let the other team back into the game (Kansas City Chiefs). Why, it is the head coach. Andy Reid is famous for this. In fact, I like him as a head coach. He is predictable. When the Chiefs get a lead in the first half, I like to take the other team and the points. Conversely, when the get a lead. and the will go for the kill and run it up. This is one of the keys to live betting and why it is different than traditional football betting. It is far more intense, and the gambler must be focused on one game. The head coach alone is not in charge of everything. I also like to know the tendencies of the offensive and defensive coordinators. Will the defense go into a prevent formation? If so, this is a good time to make a prop bet on the opposing quarterback passing yardage total. Yes, these types of prop bets are still available all game long so understanding coaching strategy is a money maker. Look at the Line Play Most people will focus on the quarterback or watch the ball on the first two series of the game. I like to focus on the offensive and defensive lines. These guys will tell me what strategy will and will not be successful. If I see the offensive line protecting the quarterback, then he will be able to take several 63

64 reads on what is available downfield. I have also seen offensive lines getting pushed around and I know it will be a long day for that quarterback. When the Broncos played the Seahawks in the Super Bowl it was obvious in the first quarter that Manning was going to get a beat down. In-Play Betting Exchanges A betting exchange is a wagering platform where peer to peer betting takes place. The world s largest betting exchange is betfair.com. Explaining the concept of betting exchanges is rather simple. A gambler can log in and choose to bet a team. In order to make his bet he needs a gambler to bet on the other side. Live Betting Lines from Bovada At betting exchanges in-play wagering is incredibly popular. During a game you can continue to either back or go against teams. The huge advantage to this form of wagering, often called bet trading, is that bettors only pay commission on their net win for each market. So, for example, if through a series of live bets, you lose $1500 on Green Bay and win $1800 on their opponent Arizona, your profit is $300; this is the amount you pay commission on. Betting exchanges are far more popular in Europe than they are in the US. One reason for this is that for an exchange to work it needs to have a large network of online gamblers. In the US, the ban on interstate sports wagering has prevented this from taking place. That is why the US customer is more familiar with spread betting 64

65 NFL Live Betting Super Bowl 2015 I have already published my predicted score for the Super Bowl and the Prop Bets that I will be wagering on before the game. The next Super Bowl Betting strategy is on the newest and fastest growing area of sports betting. Live Sports Betting. I will break down how I think the game will unfold and what Live Bets I will be looking to make. The Seattle Seahawks and the New England are both successful teams and as such they will remain true to the game strategies that got them to the Super Bowl. My job, and it is how I make a living. Is to use these patterns to make money wagering on the outcome of the game, a quarter, a drive, a play, and prop bets on individual players. First, an overview of Live Sports Betting and then my NFL Live Betting Strategy for the Super Bowl. A brief overview of live sports betting What is Live Betting? The traditional sports betting options are sides, totals, and prop bets. Live sports betting contains the same bets but with the opportunity to bet all game long. Prior to live betting most bets would be made before the game with some limited offers at the end of each quarter or half time. Live betting allows players to bet with odds updated after every play. Bettors will be able to wager on the outcome of a drive, or individual play, and have a host of other propositions offered by online sportsbooks. Of course, the more traditional forms of way wagering, such as point spreads and totals will be updated during the game. Betting on the outcome of a drive, like will the score a touchdown on this series will refresh after each play with updated odds. If the quarterback gets sacked for a 6-yard loss, making it 2nd and 16, the odds will increase. This is just one of the bets offered on a typical live betting menu during an NFL game. Why Live Betting Live betting offers players a chance to break the game down to individual plays or drives instead of placing a bet at the beginning of the game and watching helplessly as the bet goes bad. Live betting increases the action. Why wait 3 or 4 hours it takes to watch a full NFL Game. Proposition bets on a drive or bets on each individual play will be back into your account in a few seconds once your bet ends. If you choose the wrong side and it is obvious in the first half. Live betting allows you to jump back in the game. If you notice something you can take advantage of it. Is a safety getting beaten but the receiver dropped the pass? Then you can expect the team to throw deep again and you can bet on the receiver. Did a team s best run stopper just get hurt? You can make a prop bet on the running back rushing yard totals. If you are going to watch the game, then become a part of the action. 65

66 Types of Live Betting available for the Super Bowl Point Spreads This is the most popular bet on football. Wager on a team covering a given point spread. For example, if the New England were given a spread of +3.5 in the Super Bowl, they d need to lose by less than three points or win the game in order for their bettors to win. Money Line Bets With a money line (straight-up) bet, you re only wagering on which team will win the Super Bowl. However, there s always a favorite so odds are attached to each team to keep betting equal on both sides. For example, if the Seattle Seahawks were the underdog, you might win $2.20 for every $1 wagered; meanwhile, those betting on the favorite would get $1.60 for every $1 bet. With this year nearly even odds. Wait until a team takes the lead then the other side should be plus on the money line. Over/s Wagering on the combined score of both teams. So, if the over/under on the game was 47.5, you could either bet on the two teams scoring more or less than this amount. Prop Bets The number of prop bets is increasing every year. For example; on you can bet on the number of passing yards, number of touchdowns, interceptions, and many more. The same is true of Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and almost every player on the field. There are also team prop bets on field goals, sacks, penalties, turnovers, and more prop bets added every day. These prop bets will be updated during the game. See my Katy Perry Prop Bet example. Super Bowl Live Betting Strategy I have been using live betting (in play betting) to make money on the NFL. In fact, I find that live betting is easier to do than traditional betting before the game. If I am going to watch the game, then live betting allows me to adjust to injuries and my knowledge of the team and the coaching staff. The First of the Super Bowl How to get started. I will be making bets before the game (See my Super Bowl Score Prediction), but I will be setting aside 50% of my game bankroll for bets made during the game. The are a slight favorite (-1) for the game. This mean that all of the key numbers (3,4,6,7) are not available. In my prediction I have the getting an early lead. Looking at the history of both New England and Seattle it is far more likely that the will jump out to a touchdown lead than the Seahawks. However, this strategy works for either team. Based on the live game odds of previous NFL games. If a team jumps out to a touchdown lead the odds should adjust by about 4 points in the first quarter. Not enough for me. I fully expect one team to be up by 10 points in the first half. Again, it does not matter which team it is. In the Green Bay vs Seattle game when the Packers went up The Live Betting Lines had the Seahawks at +7.5 points. When the Packers went up 16-0, the lines went to Seahawks The lines increased more than the 3 additional points because it was later in the game. It is not just the number of points a team trails by but also the amount of time for the team to make a comeback. 66

67 Why will I jump on either side once all of my key numbers are met? These two teams have a history of making comebacks. Just look at the second half of the Packers vs Seahawks or the Ravens vs. These teams make the best offensive second half adjustments in football. The Seahawks tend to be very conservative in the first half and open things up if needed in the second half. Take a look at the last-minute win the Seahawks had against the Panthers during the regular season. Both teams think they can win on the final drive of a game and both are right. KEY NFL MARGIN OF VICTORY NUMBERS As you can see from this chart containing the margin of victory for the last 10 years of NFL games. 27.9% of games are decided by 3 points or less. 34.6% by 4 points or less. 45.1% by 6 points of less and 56.6% by a touchdown or less. These are for all games. Add in two exceptional quarterbacks and the likelihood of a close game are magnified. Any chance, and I mean any chance I get to take either side at +7.5 or more. I will make the bet. This is the strategy I used for the NFC Championship game and it rewarded me with the Packers +8.5 and the Seahawks at MARSHAWN LYNCH RUSHING YARDS Most people don t think of prop bets as part of Live Sports Betting but, I love these bets. Currently the total rushing yards for Marshawn Lynch according to Bovada.lv is 92.5 yards with the over at I like the over for the game, but I will be waiting to bet on it. The chart below contains part of the reason. What most people do not understand about odds is it has nothing to do with what the bookmaker thinks will happen. He is trying to guess what will get bets on both sides. Most people do no research so they will just double what happened in the first half. A look at his history (and last week) show that Lynch is a far better runner in the second half than the first half. My bet will be made toward the end of the second quarter when the second half and adjusted game prop bets are available. Advice have your computer or phone ready for the second half prop bets with about 4 minutes to go in the first half. If you are looking at a prop bet on touchdowns. Wait until the middle of the third quarter when he becomes the battering ram for the Seahawks TOTAL PASSING YARDS RUSSELL WILSON Russel has been a slow starter this year? Not if you look at the passing yards. Yes, he has toned down the passing yards in the second half because Seattle was ahead. That is what is so misleading just looking at the numbers by quarter. In the second half the Seahawks will open it up if they are behind. The current odds from Bovada.lv for Russell Wilson passing yards in the Super Bowl are yards at -125 for the over. Since I expect the Seahawks to open it up because they are trailing at the half you might think I would bet the over. No, I will be taking the under. I expect the Seahawks to lean on Lynch in the second half. Even when they are trailing. Russel might get the second half touchdown passes but Lynch will be the second half weapon of choice for Seattle. I don t expect Wilson to break 200 yards for the game. I will be betting the under before the game and look for Wilson to make a couple of passes in the second quarter to drive up his total yards above the currently offered. If it does go up then I will be betting more on the under. I hope Wilson does 67

68 complete a few long passes in the second quarter so I can jump on the adjusted line and hammer the under. DOUG BALDWIN TOUCHDOWN This is a bet I will make at halftime. If Seattle Wide Receiver Doug Baldwin does not score a TD in the first half, I will take him to get a touchdown in the second half. The Seahawks love to run Lynch in the second half of games and most people will be betting on him to get the touchdowns. But I like the play action to Lynch once the Seahawks are inside the 20-yard line. Look at his numbers this year. For this bet, have your online sportsbook account open and ready to make a fast bet. In the second half with the Seahawks in the Patriot red zone, jump on Baldwin to score. Before the game Bovada.lv has a Baldwin touchdown at LIVE SPORTS BETTING TIPS First thing to do is have at least one online sportsbook. Actually, I recommend that you have more than one. Different sportsbooks have different odds on the same event. Why take the +5 when you can get them at +6? Also, not every book offers the same prop bets. There are times when a bookmaker s website may be slow, and you don t want to miss a bet while you are waiting for the site to reload. If you are new to a sportsbook there are bonus offers to get you started. Why not use their money to build your bankroll? 68

69 Football Prop Betting New to prop betting? Have you made other bets before? Prop betting is no different than any other bet. This guide is to provide you the basics of prop betting so you can start out having fun (winning is fun). Props bets are often viewed as amateur wagers rather than a way to make any serious money. The phrase prop bet is short for proposition bet. The proposition bet can actually be on any outcome at all. In football betting, props are bets that are not directly related to the final outcome of the game. Prop bets must be handicapped just other bets to be successful. Football props in particular can be profitable because of the large number of props on a game and the time to research the lines. If you play daily fantasy football, then you are already familiar with the type of research you will need to do to be successful making football prop bets. I always suggest you start small until you are familiar with prop betting and then always bet within your bankroll. Why make Prop Bets on the NFL? Why are some prop bets considered easier than side/totals bets on NFL games? The Sportsbooks often offer props as a marketing tool rather than as a means of profit. Think of how many times you have heard of some crazy prop bet on the news. That is free advertising for the casino. Because of the large number of prop bets offered on NFL games there really isn t the time available to spend on each one. Think of it, the line maker still has other sports to put up lines on like the NHL, NBA, MLB etc. That is why prop bets are more a formulaic practice than actual line making. How is a line made for the over/under betting on how many passing yards a quarterback will have? Bovada NFL Betting Odds It is a relatively simple formula. The average passing yards per game multiplied by (opposing defenses average passing yards allowed after / the leagues average passing yards allowed) Of course, this alone can be misleading if the quarterback had one huge passing game and distorted the average passing yards per game. This is why the median must be developed. The median is the middle number of passing yards by the quarterback. If there is an even number of games, then add the two middle numbers together and divide by two. After that compare the medium to the mean to determine which is a more accurate portrayal of the quarterback s performance. 69

70 An example of the medium and the mean for a quarterback from s passing yards for the first 5 games of the 2015 season. 312 yards 275 yards 358 yards 466 yards 288 yards The mean is 339 (this is the total number of yards divided by the number of games). The median is 312 (this is the number in the middle of the range of numbers). A quick analysis is needed to decide which is better: mean or median? If we see that he had 466 yards because he was in a shootout with the Bills and was forced to throw the entire game, it explains why the average (mean) is higher. But both are relatively close. For the year averaged 298 per game. Now you have a guide to look at when the number comes out for your prop bet. The next step would be to take either the medium or the mean and complete the formula by the defense allowed part of the formula. For some this will seem like quite a bit of math, but the important point is this is about all the sportsbook manager will do when it comes to setting a line. With over 70 prop bets on your average NFL game and hundreds available on playoff games this quick calculation is all he has time for. He will offset the lack of a true line by adding to the vig (often -115 / -115), and reduced betting limits. The reduced limits and general lack of action does one more thing to the line. It can move the line with far less money being bet on one side. For example, someone bets $500 wager Manning to throw for less than 280 yards at The line might move to (-105 / -125). The move will depend on how much action there is on the line. Because these lines are often automated and do not require the sportsbook manager to set the line. All he has to do is approve the computers line move. The important thing to take away is there will be many variations in the line at different books. This is unlike the side/total which is heavily bet and tends to settle within a point Using Derivatives for Football Prop Betting If you remember the housing market crash, you probably heard a lot about derivatives on the news. Many football propositions are derivatives. That means that one line derives from another. An example of a derivative is a prop bet on which team will score first. This is a derivative of the game s first half point spread and total. In fact, so much so that all you need to solve it is figure out what the betting line predicts for the half time score and then plug it into the following formula -100 X ( Favorite first half score / dog first half score) = First score line Let s take the and the Broncos for this one. The first half line is currently. Broncos First Spread -2.5 and a total of 22 70

71 The formula is; -100 X (12.5 / 10) = -125 The fair odds for which team will score first would therefore be -125 / Broncos The current line has the at -130 to score first and the Broncos at 100. This sportsbook has a wide vig on the prop and makes it not worth betting. This can be frustrating to do all of the work and then find the book has put up a sucker s line. That is one reason I have accounts at five different books. Once I have done the research it only takes a couple of minutes to find the best line. Example : Prop Betting Analysis for Super Bowl 50 Using & Peyton Manning A fuller example of how to make your own line for a prop bet. I will use the 2015/16 AFC Championship game between the New England and Denver Broncos. Let s start with the stats. Average Passing : 298 (Median 293) Peyton Manning Average Passing (9 games) 263 (Median 266) Average Passing Allowed: 241 Broncos Average Passing Allowed: 200 League Average Passing Allowed: 244 We then did the following calculations, using the formula we showed you earlier. For we have 298 yard average x (200 / 244) = For Peyton Manning we have 263 yard average x (241 / 244) = We then did the following calculations, using the formula we showed you earlier. Now take an actual line (remember the lines can vary a lot of one book to another because it does not take much action to move a line) Passing over / under -115 So we handicapped at 244 yards and the sportsbook has him at 290 yards. The next step I take is to divide the two. I have with 16% fewer yards than the book. As a general rule I like my passing yards to be +10% before I will make a bet. But, I am not done. The next step is to look at any variable that can alter the outcome. First is the weather. Rain/snow are not bothersome, but a heavy cross wind can cause several errant passes and take away the deep pass. The next thing I look at are injuries. Is an offensive tackle hurt? Are the wide receivers healthy? How about the defensive backs? 71

72 Super Bowl 53 vs Overview What: Super Bowl LIII (Super Bowl 53) Who: NFL AFC champion vs. NFL NFC champion When: Sunday, Feb. 3, 2019 Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Ga. Time: Kickoff 6:30 p.m. Eastern TV: CBS Streaming: CBS Radio: Westwood One Betting Odds: See below Future Super Bowl sites: About Super Bowl LIII: 2020: South Florida, Hard Rock Stadium, Super Bowl : Tampa Bay, Raymond James Stadium, Super Bowl : Los Angeles, Los Angeles Stadium, Super Bowl 56 72

73 Player Prop Picks New England Super Bowl 53 Prop Betting Picks The last time went against a Wade Phillips defense was the AFC Championship game vs the Denver Broncos. His stats for the game were 27 of 56 for 310 passing yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. In the game was hit more times than he was in any game that season. Phillips was been going against Belichick for over 20 years now and he understands how to limit. He will crowd the line of scrimmage and dare to go deep. That was why the signed Josh Gordon to be a deep threat. With him gone the do not really have much of a deep threat and it will show in this game. Passing UNDER (-115) MyBookie Passing UNDER (+110) Bovada Touchdown Passes UNDER 2.5 (-125) MyBookie Touchdown Passes UNDER 2 (+115) Bovada Interceptions OVER 0.5 (-125) Bovada Sony Michel The can t stop the run!!! Really? Against the Saints Mark Ingram had 9 rushes for 31 yards and Alvin Kamara had 15 yards on 8 rushes. The will be able to control the line of scrimmage and slow down Sony Michel. Oh, and in that game against the Broncos. The leading rusher for the was with 13 yards. Sony Michel Rushing UNDER 80.5 (-115) Bovada Sony Michel Rushing UNDER 77.5 (-105) MyBookie 73

74 James White The can be run on by power backs but White isn t one. Also, the defense will emphasize taking away the short pass and that will limit the effectiveness of White. He will be a good outlet receiver for receptions but not for a lot of receiving yards. James White Rushing UNDER 15.5 (-105) MyBookie James White Rushing UNDER 19.5 (-120) Bovada Why line shop? Look at these next two and bet at MyBookie James White Rushing & Receiving UNDER 76.5 (-115) Bovada James White Rushing & Receiving UNDER 78.5 (+105) MyBookie Rob Gronkowski I have a lot of under bets on the wide receivers, but I have some over bets on Gronk. He will be going against the type of defense he is made to beat. The last time he went up against the type of defense Phillips will use to slow down. Gronk had 8 receptions for 144 receiving yards on 15 targets. The targets are the key as the Wade Phillips will send his guys after hard to knock him down as much as possible. Yes, there will be several inaccurate passes but there will be enough targets that Gronk will break at least one deep pass. 2 weeks rest and some medication should bring out the young Gronk for one last time. Let me explain my bets. Do not bet at Bovada because they have a lesser return at -150 than the -130 at MyBookie. Also, look at the odds at BetOnline.ag (my favorite prop bet sportsbook for betting overs) they have 69+ which means if it lands on 69 it is a win. They also offer several odds on the same event as you see below. Rob Gronkowski Receiving OVER 54.5 (-150) Bovada Rob Gronkowski Receiving OVER 54.5 (-130) MyBookie Rob Gronkowski Receiving 69+ (+112) BetOnline Rob Gronkowski Receiving 84+ (+170) BetOnline 74

75 Julian Edelman Going back to the AFC Championship game when he had 7 receptions on 13 targets for only 53 and no touchdowns makes sense here. The have to take away the short passing game that Edelman excels at and there is a tradition of officials letting players get away with a little more in the Super Bowl. Julian Edelman Receptions OVER 7 (-125) Bovada Bet at MyBookie instead of Bovada * better odds Julian Edelman Receiving UNDER 84.5 (-115) Bovada Julian Edelman Receiving UNDER 82.5 (+110) MyBookie Chris Hogan I don t have much faith in Chris Hogan in this game. I have the game a little lower scoring than most people and I have the defense taking away the short passing game. Make this bet at MyBookie for better odds Chris Hogan Receiving UNDER 40.5 (-115) Bovada Chris Hogan Receiving UNDER 39.5 (-105) MyBookie Phillip Dorsett The will be after and they will be taking away the short and intermediate passing lanes. This will leave the deep pass available and Dorsett is a good bet to get one big catch, but I don t have him getting a lot of receptions. Phillip Dorsett Receiving OVER 32.5 (+100) MyBookie 75

76 Los Angeles Jared Goff Jared Goff against the Saints in the NFC Championship game was 24 of 40 for 295 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. I really like him to get plenty of passing attempts because of the ability to slow down the rushing game. Jared Goff Passing OVER (-115) Bovada Jared Goff Passing OVER (-115) MyBookie Jared Goff Passing OVER 309+ (+100) BetOnline Jared Goff Passing Attempts OVER 37 (-115) Bovada Jared Goff Passing OVER 37.5 (-120) MyBookie Todd Gurley Todd Gurley is old? Todd Gurley has lost it? Todd Gurley is injured? Well, he might be hurt but this is the Super Bowl and he is a team player. That means he will do what he needs to. If it takes a shot in the knee to fill no pain for a day, then he will do it. I am all over Gurley in this game. Who has shredded the recently? Kareem Hunt. If he was still with the Chiefs, they would have beaten the Pats in the AFC Championship game. The last two games Hunt had against the Pats his lines were. In 2018, 10 rushes for 80 yards with 5 receptions for 105 yards. In 2017 he had 17 rushes for 148 yards with 5 receptions for 98 yards. See a pattern? Todd Gurley is better than Hunt and he will shred the slow linebackers. I am all over Gurley in the game. Todd Gurley Rushing OVER 66.5 (+115) MyBookie Todd Gurley Rushing OVER 88+ (+127) BetOnline Todd Gurley Receptions OVER 3.5 (-115) MyBookie Todd Gurley Receptions OVER 3.5 (-115) MyBookie Todd Gurley Receptions OVER 3.5 (-115) Bovada Todd Gurley Receptions 5+ (+131) BetOnline Todd Gurley Receptions 6+ (+254) BetOnline 76

77 Todd Gurley Receiving OVER 30.5 (-125) Bovada Todd Gurley Receiving OVER 35.5 (-105) MyBookie Todd Gurley Receiving 46+ (+138) BetOnline Todd Gurley Super Bowl MVP +800 MyBookie Todd Gurley Super Bowl MVP Bovada CJ Anderson Since I have Todd Gurley coming back to life in this game it leaves little production for CJ Anderson. CJ Anderson Rushing & Receiving UNDER 55.5 (-115) Bovada CJ Anderson Rushing UNDER 49.5 (-140) Bovada CJ Anderson Rushing UNDER 49.5 (-145) MyBookie Gerald Everett Just like Tyler Higbee, the short middle of the field will be available, and Gerald Everette will be able to take advantage of it. Gerald Everette Receiving OVER 24.5 (-115) Tyler Higbee I like him here. The Pats defense is designed to take away the deep pass and force Goff to be patient. The Pats linebackers are also better against the run than the pass. It won t take a lot of receptions for him to go over the total. Tyler Higbee Receiving OVER 21.5 (-120) Bovada Tyler Higbee Receiving 37+ (+121) BetOnline 77

78 Brandin Cooks Will Brandin Cooks get revenge for being traded away? It will be difficult against a defense designed to take away the deep pass. However, he should still get plenty of targets and that will add up to going over on receptions. Brandin Cooks Receptions OVER 5.5 (+120) MyBookie Brandin Cooks Receptions OVER 5.0 (-125) Bovada Josh Reynolds Josh, you are no Cooper Kupp. But I like the volume he should get here and that should rack up some decent yardage. Josh Reynolds Receiving OVER 49.5 (-115) Bovada Josh Reynolds Receiving OVER 45.5 (-130) MyBookie Josh Reynolds Receiving 51+ (+110) BetOnline Josh Reynolds Receiving 66+ (+140) BetOnline Play MyBookie.ag Squares Contest 78

79 Los Angeles 2019 Super Bowl 53 vs Prop Bet Picks & Score Prediction The made it to the Super Bowl following one of the worst blown calls in NFL history in the NFC Championship game almost two weeks ago. Lucky to be here? They were the number two seed in the NFC. In 2018 the (15-3 SU, ATS, 9-9 O/U) averaged 32.9 points per game ranking second in the NFL And, don t forget that despite all of that scoring the best player is an interior defensive lineman tackle Aaron Donald. The best way to beat is to get pressure up the middle and to the can definitely do that because of Donald and fellow standout defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. The held Dallas to 22 points in the divisional round before mostly keeping Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints in check in their overtime win in the NFC Championship game. The also have cornerbacks Aqib Talib back and he can cover anyone on New England s roster man-to-man, thereby freeing up their front seven to get after early and often. are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. are ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win. are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. New England The are in a Super Bowl? In 2018 New England (13-5 SU, 11-7 ATS, 7-11 O/U) looked a little down at the midpoint of the season but once again came on strong late. This season the are better balanced on both sides of the ball in ranking fourth in scoring (27.2 ppg) and seventh in points allowed (20.3 ppg). The are playing their best offensive football of the season at just the right time, having scored 37 points or more in each of their last three games dating back to their regular season finale. Super Bowl: Where, When, Odds When: Sunday, February 3, 2019 at 6:30 PM ET Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia TV: CBS Live Stream: NFL Live Super Bowl LIII Odds: New England -2.5 / : 58 Tip The odds vary so shop around 79

80 Betting Trends New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England s last 6 games when playing LA LA is ATS in its last 7 games at home LA is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA s last 5 games at home dog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. New England Betting Preview didn t have a GOAT game, going 30-for-46 for 348 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. The ranked 9th in pass DVOA but 28th in run DVOA. This looks like a good spot to use Sony Michel to rack up the yards on the ground. That is exactly what the did against the Chiefs 32nd ranked run defense, rushing 48 times. has at least 40 passing attempts in his last four Super Bowls. Against the Falcons he had an incredible 62 passing attempts. However, that has driven by the being down a lot and having no choice but to pass on every down. The are running the ball more and they may just ride Sony Michel and keep the offense off of the field. Sony Michel is averaging 26.5 rushing attempts in the playoffs with five rushing touchdowns. The one thing he isn t is a great receiving back so if the Pats are down, he will not be on the field. James White is the receiving back and if the Pats find it difficult to run in the game he is also trusted by. His history of big games in the playoffs cannot be ignored. I don t expect Rex Burkhead to be a factor in the Super Bowl. I know he rushed 12 times last week for two touchdowns, but I consider that to be more of a fluke than any trend. Is Rob Gronkowski back? Last week he had a team high 11 targets and ended the game with 6 receptions for 79 yards and no touchdowns. I really like him in this spot. If you read my prop bet picks you will know that against the type of defense Wade Phillip runs, the tight end is in a great position to get yards. Against Phillips and the Broncos defense in the AFC Championship game he had over 140 receiving yards. Julian Edelman, saw 10 targets last week and had 7 receptions for 96 yards and no touchdowns. The will try and stop by taking away the quick passes that Edelman feasts on. I don t like him to have a big game against this defense. Phillip Dorsett should get Marcus Peters, ranked #95 by PFF and Chris Hogan should see Aqib Talib, ranked #20 by PFF. Last week Dorsett was in on 37% of the plays and Hogan was in on 74%. The will really feel the loss of Josh Gordon in this game. I know Hogan had a 6 reception for 128 receiving yards and one touchdown game in last year s Super Bowl, but the defense should be able to contain him with Talib covering him. 80

81 Los Angeles Betting Preview Jared Goff didn t have a great game but he made the plays he needed to for the victory. Goff finished with 25 completions on 40 passing attempts for 297 yards, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. The defense ranked 14th in pass DVOA and 19th in run DVOA. If there is one big question mark on the game it is Todd Gurley. In the NFC Championship game he played on just 32 of the 69. He rushed only four times for 10 yards and a touchdown. He also caught just one of his three targets. C.J. Anderson rushed 16 times for 44 yards and caught his lone target while playing on 37 of the 69 snaps. If you read my prop bet picks on Todd Gurley then you will know that I have full faith he will return and be the running back we are used to seeing. Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods, both may have a tough time against a defense that will take away the big play. Just look at what they did to Tyreek Hill and you will see that they can scheme to takeout any receiver. I really do not expect much from Brandin Cooks who should see a lot of Stephon Gilmore (ranked #1 by PFF). Robert Woods should see J.C. Jackson in the slot (ranked #51 by PFF) and Josh Reynolds will have Jason McCourty (ranked #14 by PFF) on him. The defense has the ability to shut down the wide receivers. So, where will Goff get his yards? The combination of Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett have combined for 612 receiving yards and five touchdowns this season. The allowed 11 touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, tied with Cincinnati for the most in the league. Last week Everett played on 68% of the snaps while Higbee played on 57% of the snaps. I like both to go over on receiving yards as the will be able to take advantage of the linebackers and that will help them control the ball on offense. Super Bowl 53 Betting Predictions Who will win? More important. Who will cover the Super Bowl? Both of these teams went to overtime to get here and I have this as another game that will go down to the end to be decided. The betting line has gone back and forth between the as a 2.5- or 3-point favorite. If you are in Las Vegas betting, then and you want to bet on the I would wait until all of the Los Angeles crowd gets to Las Vegas on Saturday and they should get the line to +3 (-110) for the. I will be betting with online sportsbooks who offer a full line of prop bets and alternate lines on my phone. All of the talk about Belicheck has glossed over the point that he will be going against the offense, but it will be his offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. I have a big edge to defensive coordinator Wade Phillips in this matchup. Will Belicheck be able to slow down the offense? Yes. Will Phillips be able to slow down the offense? Yes. I have a relatively low scoring Super Bowl going to the fourth quarter. The two players who will make the difference and be the deciding factor? Todd Gurley and Greg Zuerlein. If you want to know what Todd Gurley can do against the Pats, take a look at what Kareem Hunt did against them. Why Greg Zuerlein? The man does it again and closes out a victory with a late field goal. 81

82 BetOnline.ag Bonus Sportsbetting.ag Bonus Los Angeles 27 New England 24 Bets: +3 (-120), Money Line +125, Alt Line -2.5 (+135) at Bovada 58 (-110) at MyBookie, Alt Line 54.5 (+110) at Bovada Super Bowl MVP: Todd Gurley at Bovada See additional late Super Bowl betting predictions on PropBets.Football 2019 Super Bowl Online Betting Bonus Tips How to maximize your online sports betting bonus The best bonus offer for the Super Bowl is from BetOnline.ag but if you already have an account you probably think you can t get another welcome bonus. You are wrong. If you do not have an account with BetOnline.ag you can actually double your welcome bonus AND other bonus offers below. 82