Fluidity Trader Chat Room w/cynthia E. - Wednesday, September 17, 2014:

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1 Fluidity Trader Chat Room w/cynthia E. - Wednesday, September 17, 2014: Page Begin Page End Chat Roll Time Wednesday Eastern Time Zone 7:30 *** Hello Fluidity Team Traders Welcome! *** 7:30 *** DAILY TRADE TIP *** *** Sometimes it s best just to go with the flow, or with the critical line. ~ Cynthia E 07:23 Irish: GM all. 07:23 Swordfish: Gm Irish 07:40 Irish: gm SF 07:40 Irish: L :11 Irish: out :47 leftie(rdk): gm 08:53 Carol: gm Irish, SF, RDK, all traders 08:56 lima: gm all 08:57 Carol: gm lima 08:58 lima: hi carol 09:02 Armee: gm all 09:04 Carol: gm Armee 09:04 jjflash: gm everyone 09:05 Carol: gm jj 09:07 jjflash: gm Carol 09:12 alice: morning all 09:13 Carol: gm Alice 09:13 alice: morning Carol 09:14 idoc: gm 09:15 Armee: gm idoc, carol, jj, alice 09:15 jjflash: gm Armee Alice idoc 09:15 forty1973: Good Morning Traders!! 09:16 Cynthia E: Good Morning Traders! We've made to Wednesday already! ;) 09:16 Carol: gm idoc, forty 09:16 Cynthia E: Hope everyone had a nice evening yesterday! 09:17 Carol: gm Cyn 09:17 Cynthia E: Morning Armee, Lima, Irish, JJ, idoc, Toka, Manny, Alice, Forty, and all! ;) 09:17 Irish: GM Cyn 09:17 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 1

2 09:17 jjflash: gm Cyn 09:17 Armee: hi cyn 09:17 Cynthia E: Can you all see the chart? 09:17 idoc: GM everyone 09:17 Irish: yes 09:17 idoc: y 09:17 jjflash: yes 09:17 Armee: yes 09:17 alice: yes 09:17 Cynthia E: Great! 09:18 Cynthia E: Overnight inventory is neutral and centered around yesterday's upper distribution area. 09:18 Armee: cup n handle 09:18 Reed: gm all 09:18 Cynthia E: If price can remain within the upper distribution and sustain the previous balance low at 1988 as support, then that will increase odds for continuation higher today. 09:19 Carol: gm Reed 09:19 Cynthia E: If we do start to see some retracement or profit taking from yesterday's 'net longs', then we will monitor to see just how far that retracement goes. 09:20 Cynthia E: A retest of the lower distribution / the balance high from Fri/Mon around /1979 would definitely not be out of the question. 09:20 Cynthia E: That test to 1979 would be a 61.8% test if you put a fib from the low to yesterday's high at on the 30 min chart 09:21 Armee: yes 09:21 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 2

3 09:21 Cynthia E: On 3600, we are still predominently bullish. 09:22 Cynthia E: Price has retraced and is climbing slowly up the CL, but the LT STO is still firmly in the strong bullish zone, and ERG has turned back higher and moved back above the zero line. 09:22 Cynthia E: Now, that said... be aware that if price just decides to balance or consolidate today within yesterday's upper distribution, that we would quickly turn back here in to a NEUTRAL stance. 09:24 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 3

4 09:24 DJ: gm Team! 09:24 Reed: yo dj 09:24 Cynthia E: In the bigger picture - after the 3-day test at the 38.2% level - we are now watching to see if enough upward momentum can drive price up and out of the descending channel to resume the intermediate term uptrend started back at :25 Cynthia E: :26 Cynthia E: And on the WEEKLY that yesterday's bounce is reflected in the positive move back above the swing high at So we will monitor that level for support today on any pull back that occurs. (It almost coincides with the upper distribution balance low). 09:26 Cynthia E: We have about 3 mins left to go... Comments or Questions? 09:27 Irish: S :29 DJ: +2 from lp :29 Cynthia E: As we open we are immediately going to be testing a YH breakout! 09:29 Cynthia E: Nice DJ! Congrats! 09:30 Cynthia E: Layla 09:32 Cynthia E: Off the bell here price "looked 'at' the YH and failed" so far. 09:33 DJ: sp :34 Cynthia E: I want to point out here that if you look at the pattern on the we had another 'classic long' in the overnight session (not nearly as clean as the one yesterday). 09:35 Cynthia E: However, trading here immediately this morning puts you in a trade prior to the indicators having a chance to 'cycle' or reset. 09:35 Armee: around the 90? 09:35 xroads: +1 size short 09:35 Armee: :35 Cynthia E: In other words, an immediate long here just puts you in a trade at the TARGET level from the overnight 'classic long'! 09:36 jjflash: target meaning YH cyn? 4

5 09:36 Cynthia E: 09:37 Cynthia E: Yes JJ - here is a chart of what I'm getting at! 09:37 DJ: :37 Cynthia E: Thus - if you do trade here - it is purely a BREAKOUT trade based on YH 09:37 Armee: this took stops out? 09:37 Cynthia E: Correct! 09:38 Armee: wait candloe close? or just a pullback? 09:38 idoc: lp :38 Cynthia E: Better to have CLOSE - then pull back 09:38 DJ: lp :38 Cynthia E: Because what if the candle closes as a strong inverted hammer? 09:38 Cynthia E: Then it negates the breakout move already! 09:38 Armee: yes 09:39 Armee: could come right back down 5

6 09:39 jjflash: lp :39 Armee: but waiting for entry :40 Cynthia E: And we don't HAVE to be in a hurry to trade all the time. There are many opportunities. :) 09:40 Armee: lp :40 jjflash: good point...i'm out BE...I'll wait 09:42 DJ: -1 09:42 jjflash: this stop move breaks the 61.8% short from ATH 09:44 Cynthia E: Here is the pull back to the YC / ONH area 09:44 Cynthia E: Price DID open outside and ABOVE the DAILY descending channel - so we must monitor to see if price can remain above it or if we break back inside it. 09:44 Cynthia E: In fact the LOD so far at was a perfect test to that line 09:45 Armee: line is sand around now cyn? 09:45 jjflash: lp :46 Cynthia E: 09:46 Cynthia E: Here is the DAILY perspective 09:47 Cynthia E: Yes Armee - basically the ONH / WMA area 09:47 Armee: out :47 Cynthia E: Price is holding the YH as support so far 09:47 Cynthia E: Why out Armee? 09:47 Armee: I know early.. 09:47 Cynthia E: No sign at all of 'line in the sand' violation! 09:48 Cynthia E: You did that yesterday as well. 09:48 Armee: true, 09:48 Cynthia E: You are more worried about the reversal and potential loss - then letting the trade work! ;) 09:48 Armee: was watching candle and now higher high at the 09:48 Cynthia E: Which means you aren't accepting the risk when you open the trade 09:48 Armee: no higher high at moment and true was not accepting risk 09:49 Armee: wasn't confident the trade when I went flat 09:49 Cynthia E: Not meaning to pick on you... just helping you refine! ;) 09:49 Armee: of course cyn 09:49 Armee: is why im herer 09:49 Cynthia E: :) 09:50 Armee: thanks cyn 09:50 andy: range targets 2000/ :50 Carol: thx Andy 09:51 Irish: out -.5 6

7 09:51 Cynthia E: Price retesting YH again 09:51 Cynthia E: B period is holding so far with higher value developing. 09:52 Cynthia E: However, failure to remain 'out of balance' to the upside - can start to target the upper distribution balance low, and test of the single print area 09:52 Cynthia E: Be careful and notice here that a CL BREAK will NOT break the overnight swing lows (meaning no break of trend) 09:53 Cynthia E: So far no CLOSE below YH 09:54 Armee: looks like a battle 09:55 Cynthia E: Irish has the binoculars out - he must be playing 'I spy'... lol :) 09:55 Irish: yep. will take that DO test. 09:55 DJ: internals getting more positive 09:56 Armee: gosh..i didn't even look at internal as well while in earlier 09:57 traderken: Irish, target? 09:57 Cynthia E: Good to note Armee! 09:57 Armee: yes noting right now! 09:57 Cynthia E: Now that sideways consolidation at YH that held YH as support is allowing ERG to 'bounce' off it's signal line. 09:58 DJ: 2 minutes 10:00 Cynthia E: B period finished with a very narrow range. Now if C period doesn't start to 1 TF UP and extend, there could be a stronger potential for a retest back to the LOD 10:01 Cynthia E: Poor high on B/C 10:01 jjflash: stop to BE 10:01 Cynthia E: 7

8 10:02 Cynthia E: Here is what I'm referring to... 10:02 Cynthia E: Essentially B period this morning stopped the 1 TF DOWN that started late yesterday afternoon. 10:02 Irish: S :03 Cynthia E: And we can see that we have held the J period high (or YH) as support - old resistance has become new support). But, if C period cannot go ahead and continue that break in the 1 TF DOWN and start a nice 1 TF UP pattern - then odds favor a return back inside that balance, and a retest of the upward move. In other words, it becomes more likely that C or D today would stop the 1 TF UP and start 1 TF DOWN again. 10:04 Cynthia E: Does that make sense? 10:04 Reed: yes 10:04 Cynthia E: We kind of just keep right on going from O period to B period and monitor the 'trend' or balance mode from there. 10:04 Armee: yes 10:04 Cynthia E: Great! 10:04 jjflash: +0.5 don't like it 10:05 Cynthia E: Nice mgmt JJ. 10:05 Cynthia E: After the 'look above and fail' back to the YH - there would be greater odds for it to break 10:05 traderken: that's why Irish shorted to retest open, yh 10:05 Cynthia E: And speed of that failure suggests there could have been responsive selling up there 10:06 Cynthia E: Yes Exactly Ken. 10:06 Armee: ahh yes cyn..speed 10:06 Cynthia E: Like xroads - Irish has become quite the contrarian! ;) 10:06 Armee: speed of candle down suggests move can be over 10:06 Cynthia E: Precisely Armee - it is not WHERE highs and lows form but more importantly HOW they form. 10:07 Irish: Its fomc day 10:07 Armee: wow 10:07 Armee: thanks 10:08 Cynthia E: When you see speedy reversals like that - it usually means there were limit SHORTS waiting there to execute. 'Responsive Sellers' 10:08 Cynthia E: Good reminder Irish! Thx 10:08 Armee: also cyn..i like the counter trend plays as well..but..coming back here..i will solely concentrate on CL direction only 10:08 Armee: page cannot be displayed? 10:08 Cynthia E:?? 10:08 Cynthia E: We see your post 10:09 Irish: out :09 Armee: yes weird? why? 10:09 Cynthia E: I have no idea 10:09 Carol: wtg Irish 10:09 Armee: lol 10:09 Cynthia E: Excellent job Irish! 10:09 Armee: nice irish 10:09 alice: gj Irish 10:09 xroads: +2 short 10:10 DJ: wtg Irish 10:10 Irish: 1st close below YH since it broke above 10:10 Cynthia E: Nice job xroads! 10:10 alice: gj X 10:10 Irish: that's wrong, closed at YH 10:10 DJ: nice xroads 10:10 Carol: wtg X 10:10 jjflash: what was the logic of the shorts? histo/level? 10:11 DJ: WMA=YH=HW 10:11 Irish: that big drop candle from 99.5 to on opened at 97 10:12 Irish: and just above resistance at :12 xroads: failure multiple times at highs 10:12 Irish: potential divergences on 3600 and 1400 now. 8

9 10:13 Irish: :14 traderken: SOH here until market show it's hand 10:14 idoc: flat -1 10:15 Armee: now cyn 10:15 Irish: nice X 10:15 Irish: thx all 10:15 Cynthia E: Heads up! 10:15 Armee: price between wma and cl 10:15 xroads: u2 Irish 10:15 Cynthia E: Here we are at the CL test, ERG heading down to retest zero 10:16 Cynthia E: Price has not bounced up yet, and ERG hasn't turned white and crossed yet. 10:16 Armee: could be classic long? 10:16 Cynthia E: Would only be 'classic' if retracement got much deeper (look at level of ST STO) 10:16 Armee: yes 10:17 Cynthia E: It would need to be all the way down to center of range or even below green line 10:17 Cynthia E: If everything turns back up here - would just be 'continuation' long... not 'classic' long 10:17 Armee: yes 10:17 Armee: would need another close above 94.50? 10:18 Cynthia E: Correct Armee - with confirmation from ERG cross 10:18 Armee: correct 10:18 Cynthia E: For now Armee - what we essentially see is an upside breakout failure! 10:19 Cynthia E: Our 'balance or bull flag range' is the ONL to the YH. 10:19 Armee: yes 10:19 Cynthia E: Price moved above the YH - consolidated - couldn't remain - and therefore, came back into that range. 10:19 Cynthia E: So now we are just back in the 'balance zone' 10:19 Armee: yes 10:19 xroads: very low confidence for 3 quarters of an hour in, 3pt value area, 4pt range 10:21 Armee: continutation starting? 10:21 Armee: but erg not even close 10:22 Cynthia E: Armee - ERG isn't close because the 'continuation' as you are calling has only made it to the CENTER of today's range between the LOD and HOD 10:22 Armee: got it 10:23 traderken: we tested ONH, could test YC, ONL or consolidate 10:24 traderken: or retest today's hi 10:24 xroads: alarming 91,97, going outside for morning air :) 10:24 Cynthia E: Nice xroads - enjoy! 10:27 Cynthia E: Again - if traders were aggressive - the LONG continuation entry here would be at the identified S level at the LOD / CL level. So traders would have been long from the retest toward the 93/94 area - with a stop below the break of CL. 10:27 Cynthia E: Otherwise we must wait on the close back above YH and the ERG confirmation. 10:27 jjflash: yes 10:28 jjflash: the conservative trade 10:28 Cynthia E: And always be aware that ANY time price is coming back up to a swing high (in this case the HOD) - that a DIVERGENCE SHORT is always possible if price fails to breakout to a new higher high. 10:28 Cynthia E: Time change coming up again - 1 min 10:29 jjflash: there appears to be a divergence on the erg right now if one looks at a trend line slope 10:29 Cynthia E: EXACTLY jj!!! 10:29 jjflash: from yesterday 10:29 Cynthia E: If price turned DOWN right now - we would have a lower high from yesterday's high - we'd also have another 'lower high' in the ERG just from the HOD. 10:29 Cynthia E: So actually 2 mini divergences. 10:31 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 9

10 10:31 Cynthia E: Here is the larger divergence JJ is reporting 10:32 jjflash: and the fact that price went higher with the erg slope down cause the divergence between erg and price 10:33 Cynthia E: Yes that is called a divergence - if price had actually made a lower high rather than a higher high - it would be called a 'hidden divergence' 10:33 Irish: why is it marked overnight? Looks like its b/w YH and HOD. 10:33 jjflash: yes 10:33 Cynthia E: Because it encompasses the overnight range or time frame 10:35 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 10

11 10:35 Cynthia E: And here is the mini-divergence I was referring to... 10:35 Cynthia E: That if price started to turn lower NOW as it is doing - that the ERG would reject the signal line (rather than cross it) while price made a 'lower high' - mini hidden divergence! 10:36 Cynthia E: This is WHY we WAIT for the ERG crosses! 10:36 Cynthia E: D period just broke the 1 TF UP started in C period by trading 2 ticks below the C period low 10:37 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 11

12 10:38 Cynthia E: Now all periods are mostly overlapped, so we are fully 'in balance' until price attempts another upside breakout or starts to retrace lower into Tuesday's range. 10:38 Cynthia E: Now we do have stronger odds that a CL BREAK would become a successful trade here because we have had 2 upside breakout failures above the YH 10:39 Armee: this considered candle close below? 10:39 Armee: CL? 10:39 Cynthia E: Of course the CL BREAK is still NOT breaking the ONL swing lows (trend) and we have the YC just below 10:39 Cynthia E: Closed right on it 10:40 Armee: yep 10:40 Cynthia E: The focus Armee is that your line in the sand on the top side is a resistance retest of the ONH 10:40 Armee: agree 10:40 Cynthia E: If you accept that risk or understand that risk - then you can trade it. The TARGET here would actually be the ONL (rather than the YC) - the YC is just likely to cause bounces and possibly a retest back to the ONH. 10:41 Cynthia E: The reason that the ONL would be the actual target is because with the 2 failed upside auctions price likely to retest those SWING LOWS 10:41 Cynthia E: It is a TREND issue - not a 'reference' issue. 10:43 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 12

13 10:43 Cynthia E: Here is the scenario 10:44 Cynthia E: Comments or questions? 10:44 Cynthia E: Here is the bounce back to the bottom side of the WMA and the ONH 10:44 Cynthia E: Notice here that we are still just testing the t 10:44 Cynthia E: oops 10:44 Cynthia E: the TOP side of the CL while ERG has just now made it down to the ZERO line 10:45 Cynthia E: NOW!!!!! Armee - do you see why ERG didn't reflect the retracement as complete? 10:45 Armee: yes 10:45 Cynthia E: You were saying the continuation was taking off without the ERG - but in reality price had just made it back to the center of today's LOD / HOD range - and the consolidation wasn't complete so ERG wasn't showing it to you! 10:46 Armee: ahh yes 10:46 Cynthia E: And NOW look at the position of the ST STO 10:46 Armee: was pointing that out 10:46 Armee: yes 10:46 Cynthia E: So NOW, if price happened to bounce big and close back up over the YH with a bounce here in ST STO and ERG - the pattern would be much more 'clean' yes? :) 10:47 Cynthia E: And otherwise, we are just still sitting here within Tuesday's upper distribution - 'in balance' 10:47 Armee: oh yes 10:47 Cynthia E: Does that make sense? 10:47 Cynthia E: Perfect! 10:47 Cynthia E: But!!! 10:47 Cynthia E: What do you think the odds are for that bounce after 2 upside breakout failures? 10:48 Armee: not good 10:48 Cynthia E: See that is where CONTEXT comes into play and histogram analysis becomes helpful 10:48 Cynthia E: It is a matter of putting all the pieces of the puzzle together in your mind, and then thinking about them all together. 10:49 Armee: got it 10:49 Cynthia E: So - what would you actually want to see to CONFIRM an upside breakout here again - what price confirmation do you need? 10:49 jjflash: close above YH 10:50 Armee: price over WMA with cross ERG around YH 10:50 Cynthia E: nope - not quite 10:50 jjflash: breakout of HOD 10:50 Cynthia E: focus on TREND Armee - no indicator references - what does PRICE need to do? 10:50 Reed: no break below :50 Cynthia E: nope - almost jj 13

14 10:50 Cynthia E: Hint! 10:50 Armee: break over 96 again? 10:50 Cynthia E: Have we been making higher lows or lower highs? 10:51 Armee: lower highs 10:51 jjflash: close above :51 Cynthia E: Right! 10:51 Armee: 95.25? 10:51 Cynthia E: So what do we need to SEE? 10:51 Cynthia E: YES Armee!!! Ding Ding Ding 10:51 Armee: higher highs 10:51 jjflash: erg crossing at that point 10:51 Armee: lol 10:51 Armee: after few times.. 10:51 Cynthia E: To STOP the current intra-day short term DOWNTREND in progress - we need to make a HIGHER high rather than a new LOWER high! 10:51 Armee: but price over constitutes change 10:52 Cynthia E: So we need to break the swing high at :52 Cynthia E: Correct! 10:52 jjflash: I need glasses...idoc!!!! 10:52 jjflash: my 5s look like 6s 10:53 Armee: lol 10:54 Cynthia E: 10:54 Cynthia E: Here is what I'm getting at.. does everyone see this? 10:55 Armee: yep 10:55 Armee: channel down 10:55 Armee: lower highs 10:55 Cynthia E: Obviously yesterday was a big uptrend and the overnight session made some more swing lows 10:55 Cynthia E: But this morning we have been making a DOWN channel (correct Armee) 10:55 Cynthia E: So before any UPTREND could possibly start - we first have to actually STOP the downtrend... 10:55 Cynthia E: Yes? 10:56 Cynthia E: So what I'm trying to get you all to KEY into is that if you are going to WAIT for the 'conservative trade' 10:56 Armee: yes 10:56 Cynthia E: If you are going to wait for the ERG cross - then you need to KNOW what it is the cross is trying to confirm for you! 10:56 Armee: yes 14

15 10:56 Cynthia E: The purpose of the ERG cross is that it SHOULD coincide with the BREAK of trend or a signal that the market is starting to reverse. 10:57 andy: time change 10:57 Cynthia E: If it doesn't then you know you have greater odds for an additional divergence rather than a break in the trend 10:58 Cynthia E: And as long as price continues to make lower lows and highs intraday - then nothing has changed 10:58 xroads: and UNCH too :) 10:58 Cynthia E: Exactly xroads! ;) 10:59 Cynthia E: While we were talking there - price rejected at the ONH and the WMA as resistance, and we have closed back below CL again (but as xroads points out we have come right down to the YC. 10:59 Cynthia E: And ERG dropped below ZERO 10:59 Armee: which is really still in range 11:00 Cynthia E: Correct because we still haven't started taking out the larger time frame swing lows (the overnight lows) 11:00 Armee: since price broke lower would we need to change the to 94.50? 11:00 Cynthia E: No 11:00 Armee: direction change? 11:00 Cynthia E: don't micro-manage it - the prominent swing highs are still the HOD and :00 Armee: ahh ok 11:02 Cynthia E: As mentioned pre-market - notice how today's consolidation has taken CL back to flat 11:03 Cynthia E: Great job Ken and xroads! Love those SMILES! 11:03 Armee: FOMC 2pm EST? 11:03 Irish: correct 11:04 Armee: ty irish 11:04 Cynthia E: Ken is starting to really get it down! I am seeing a lot of SMILES there day after day - that Fortitude Test must be coming along nicely! 11:04 Armee: confirm again..smile is 3pts? 11:04 Cynthia E: Yes 11:04 Armee: ok 11:05 Cynthia E: Armee - you can right click on your name and turn on your blue arrow for 'flat' - use the green arrow for long, and red arrow for short. Then once you have your +3 you can put your SMILE on! ;) 11:05 Armee: thanks 11:05 traderken: only 2nd week but getting it down. Got beat up last Thur b4 contract change but closed week pos. 11:05 Cynthia E: There we go! Nice! 11:06 Armee: half a point? 11:06 Cynthia E: Excellent Ken! Great to hear it! 11:06 Armee: nothing..lol 11:07 traderken: scalp to YC, 3 and done for :07 Cynthia E: Now price is consolidating between the ONH and the POC 11:07 Cynthia E: Outstanding Ken! Great job! ;) 11:08 jjflash: sp very tight stop 11:09 idoc: just read your post above jj lol 11:10 traderken: JJ, we are above today's top down channel 92.5 was support 11:10 xroads: Dalton's video from last night is available and well worth watching 11:10 jjflash: is that you idoc or iooc 11:11 idoc: haha 11:12 idoc: make your font bigger for a quick fix lol 11:12 Armee: bye all 11:12 Cynthia E: Have a great day Armee! See you tomorrow 11:13 traderken: good one idoc 11:13 Armee: yes cyn..thanks! 11:13 xroads: spec long near UNCH, as long as we maintain yesterday's PBL just below 11:14 Irish: taking a break, see you around 2pm. For those who won't be here, have a great atternoon and see you tomorrow. 11:16 Cynthia E: Have a great day Irish - see you tomorrow! 15

16 11:18 Cynthia E: As we know - it is very typical for the market to confine itself to a very narrow range ahead of the FOMC meeting. 11:18 Cynthia E: or announcement rather... 11:18 Cynthia E: So it is highly possible that price will now just consolidate between the ONL and the YH until FOMC time. 11:26 Cynthia E: Balance becoming stronger - CL / WMA getting closer to overlapping. 11:27 Cynthia E: Great lesson today on detail of understanding trend relative to ERG indicator. 11:27 Cynthia E: Thanks for all the great questions guys! 11:27 Cynthia E: Are there any follow up questions on any of that info before I head out today? 11:28 Reed: Good lesson. Thanks, Cyn 11:29 jjflash: yes 11:30 Cynthia E: F period is now open right in the center of today's narrow balance range. 11:30 Cynthia E: Question jj? 11:30 jjflash: slow day and consolidating. But the short I took (higher risk) was because we closed below CL, erg below zero and retest of HW/WMA with very tight stop. I plan to take profit (if any ) before YC retest. Is this ill advised in consolidation? 11:32 Cynthia E: The trade or taking the profit? 11:32 jjflash: the trade 11:33 Cynthia E: Not necessarily... you are trading with today's intraday trend (which is down) - you just need to have a clear idea of where the stop is and be fully aware the the prevailing short term trend ( or trend one time frame higher than what you are trading is UP). 11:33 Cynthia E: As long as you are clear on your objective and understand where you are wrong and do not hesitate to exit - you are fine 11:33 jjflash: +2 11:33 jjflash: it worked 11:33 Cynthia E: And there ya go! ;) 11:33 DJ: nice jj 11:34 Cynthia E: Nice work - nice patience! ^2 11:34 alice: way to go Carol 11:35 Cynthia E: And here is the look below the YC and the POC. 11:35 jjflash: thx all 11:35 alice: gj jj 11:35 Cynthia E: And we do now have a new clear 'lower high' at 1994 now 11:36 Cynthia E: The new stair step resistance for retest would now be the opening low or B period low at Remaining below there would keep pressure lower. Moving back above there would start to be perceived as a successful bounce off the POC. 11:36 Cynthia E: Any other questions? 11:37 jjflash: thx have a good day 11:37 Carol: thx and bye Cyn 11:37 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 16

17 11:37 Cynthia E: Here is the histo update! 11:38 Cynthia E: thx jj and Carol! 11:38 Cynthia E: Everyone have a fantastic afternoon - enjoy the FOMC at 2:00! 11:39 Cynthia E: Reminder: I personally have a very strict rule to be FLAT at the moment of the actual announcement (virtually any and every stop around current price at the time usually gets hit)! If you get lucky and win big today - you are rewarded for bad behavior and it will usually come back to bite you during the next announcement. Just FWIW! :) 11:40 Cynthia E: Have a great afternoon! See you all tomorrow! 11:40 Cynthia E: Ciao! 12:42 xroads: +1 size off ONL, and last trade 12:44 xroads: hung in my spec long by 2 ticks, added, but leaving the stop where it is 12:44 Carol: wtg X 12:44 alice: gj X 12:46 xroads: nice smiles Carol and Alice 12:47 alice: thx X 12:47 Carol: thx 12:52 xroads: 1tf still lower w/ poor low, looks likely I will get stopped out, I will just step out basically b/e and call it a day, I don't like this positionally in front of the fed 12:55 alice: I'm out too..bye 12:55 xroads: I think it will spike on the fed, but probably take tight stops like mine, then have no idea what second reaction will be 12:56 xroads: bye alice 12:58 Carol: bye Alice 13:05 xroads: often wrong :) 13:07 xroads: holding the single prints from F is key 13:07 xroads: I think 17

18 13:12 xroads: it's seems to be setting up to spike lower 13:12 xroads: there is no sign, buying tail, that the auction to the down side is done, but timing is always the question 13:13 Irish: L on look at ONL and fail 13:13 Irish: :15 xroads: volume trails say you are right, each test to ONL is lower volume 13:16 xroads: I took the first test for +1 size, but not repeating the same trade 13:16 Irish: nice 13:17 Irish: Looking for a test of B low/hw if it gets a littlle squeeze pre-fomc 13:18 Irish: G high is and H failed to look and I looked below and failed so far. 13:21 xroads: and 1tf down still in effect 13:37 Irish: 2 tick excess at extremes of profile 13:43 xroads: yes and the 1tf, nice 13:47 Irish: out :48 xroads: very nice 13:48 xroads: good patience 13:49 Irish: thx, just wanted something for my effort so I could be out before 2pm 13:50 xroads: yep 13:52 Carol: wtg Irish 13:52 Irish: thx Carol 13:53 Irish: size has really thinned out on this bounce 13:56 xroads: I was chatting with LA Little on that trade, he has his trading system working on short timeframes for himself, but not offering yet, the 5min was confirming on volume trails and what he calls retest and regenerate 13:58 xroads: he would probably take profits right here 13:58 Irish: I know I would 13:58 xroads: :59 Irish: yep, right near DO/YH 14:00 xroads: on the basis of taking the top of the large 5min bar that is the swing point low, again a retest regenerate lower point 14:01 xroads: wow look at the volatility 14:01 xroads: and volume 14:03 xroads: just as ordered 14:04 andy: :) 14:05 andy: leaning the right way for a change 14:05 Carol: wtg Andy 14:06 andy: 15 pt bar 14:08 Irish: Yellen conference at 2:30pm 14:08 xroads: took some options base of spike 83ish, out half at the POC, 91-ish 14:09 xroads: risk free 14:09 Irish: excellent 14:09 andy: DOM is thin 14:10 Carol: gj X 14:12 xroads: can Yellen kill it :) 14:12 Irish: good one 14:24 xroads: I was keying off the spike holding, and chatting with LA about his read, of course he is much more conservative like good traders should be on Fed volatility, LOL 14:25 xroads: andy what was your call on high, 2000? 14:25 andy: yes 14:25 xroads: here we are :) 14:26 andy: I wud fade level. but not giving any back today :) 14:28 xroads: I am always swinging for the fences on my specs, but at least made it risk free, probably should have taken 2000 though :), like you won't give back on contracts 14:28 andy: paper bot highs on first impulse, not sure that means anything 14:30 andy: thanks again X on link, I needed a little tuneup from Jim :) 14:32 xroads: it's really one of his best, I think 14:32 xroads: looking for C to hold, as swing point high 14:35 xroads: just a psychological thing, I trade options much less emotionally, no idea why 18

19 14:39 xroads: test of VAH here as well 14:43 xroads: if we go lower and I don't get stopped out b/e on the last half, I will look for a place to reload, swinging for the fences, LOL 14:44 Irish: failure of L to follow thru on outside period during K is bearish. 14:45 ctp: Went short at and jumped out with a quick 2 points... this would have been a good one to just let run. 14:45 Carol: wtg ctp 14:46 Irish: still 15 min and Yellen still speaking, anything can happen 14:46 xroads: 91.5 is the target I think, often wrong 14:50 xroads: wrong, I reloaded above the POC 14:51 xroads: so I am committed, that is pretty much my line in the sand 15:01 Irish: DS 99 15:03 xroads: took 1/2 again 2000-ish 15:05 Irish: out -2 15:05 xroads: with the excess that may be it for the day, but I will press remainder and stop out b/e 15:06 Irish: nice work X 15:07 Irish: that's it for me today, see you all tomorrow 15:08 andy: cya, paper still buying 15:13 livechat: h 15:25 xroads: I hedged short contracts on the second test high to lock in, if it messes with me overnight by constantly testing highs, I will probably get shaken out 15:28 xroads: or my b/e if this spill continues, my best outcome is a range between 15:28 xroads: cu'll tomorrow 15:29 ctp: Nice... just picked up another quick 2 points short from :29 xroads: gj 15:29 ctp: Think I'm gonna call it a day before I give any away. 15:29 ctp: See you all tomorrow. 15:29 xroads: :), me too End of Chat Roll for Wednesday, September 17,