MISSION ZERO FATALITY IN INDIA

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1 International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET) Volume 8, Issue 8, August 2017, pp , Article ID: IJCIET_08_08_089 Available online at ISSN Print: and ISSN Online: IAEME Publication Scopus Indexed MISSION ZERO FATALITY IN INDIA G. Athipathi 1 Doctoral Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Noorul Islam University, Kumaracoil, Thuckalay, Tamilnadu, India S. Nagan Associate Professor, Thiagarajar College of Engineering, Thirupparankundram, Madurai, Tamilnadu, India T.Baskaran Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering, Thiagarajar College of Engineering, Thirupparankundram, Madurai, Tamilnadu, India ABSTRACT On reviewing the statistics of Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, India, it is seen that there is a increase in number of vehicles and s. There is always a relation between growth rate and vehicle growth rate. Normally the roads are being upgraded often depending upon the vehicle carrying capacity of the existing roads and the level of services desired in the proposed up gradation. Many attempt has been made to correlate the rate of increase of growth rate with the rate of Increase of vehicle growth rate. With a Prediction model, s expected to happen in a highway, provided no improvement is made and we can finalize some improvements which can keep the rate in a Project Highway at a desired level. Key words: Growth Rate, Prediction, Costing, Vehicle Growth Rate. Cite this Article: G. Athipathi, S. Nagan and T.Baskaran, Mission Zero Fatality In India, International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, 8(8), 2017, pp INTRODUCTION India has one of the largest road networks in the world. Irrespective of many modes of Transport, Road is the widely used mode of Transport in India. With the development of Road infrastructure, connectivity of all villages with big cities has been ensured due to its flexibility nature. Roads construction has great impact on the economic development of a country. In a developing country like India, road is a harbinger of economic development and prosperity. Road Transport modes have vast potential to achieve economies of scale. Entire transport sector accounts for a share of 6.5 % of India s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in which road transport editor@iaeme.com

2 G. Athipathi, S. Nagan and T.Baskaran alone contributes to 4.8 % of country s GDP. Indian roads carry almost 60 percent of freight and 85 per cent of passengers annually. While National Highways make up only 2% of the overall road network by length, they account for around 40 % of the road freight traffic. 2. ROAD SAFETY As per the recent statistics of the road s in India, Road s according to category of roads as per Road s 2014 published by Ministry of Road Transport & Highways are as detailed below Table 1. Table 1 s According to Road Classification Category of Road Total No of s Fatal s Injuries National Highways State Highways Other Roads Due to the heterogeneous nature of traffic, accidents have become inevitable which are continuously affecting the progressive development of state. The main reasons of the accidents are normally drivers fault, vehicle condition, road condition, climatic conditions etc. many times the causes of s are combination of two or more reasons and cannot be quantified. The reasons such as Vehicle condition and Road condition could be assessed and can be addressed by ensuring the condition of Vehicles with stringent measures (Enforcement) and proper building of roads as per standards or rectifying the non standard locations (Engineering). The driving nature of drivers can be regulated by educating them for defensive driving and penalizing for default (Education & Enforcement) Total No of s Fatal s Injuries 0 National Highways State Highways Other Roads Figure 1 s According to Road Classification s recorded in India are mostly recorded as due to driver fault. For a driver driving in normal condition, his chances of erring are induced by Road conditions, climatic conditions, his personal health and vehicle condition. By providing the proper road safety measures, it would be possible to make the drivers with defensive training drive properly even in worst conditions. On perusal of the table above, it is apparent that during the year from 2004 to 2013, the total no of accidents are in consistent range of about 4% to 7% of total vehicle population as shown in Figure 1. Hence, the relation between could be developed to determine the rate of increase of s editor@iaeme.com

3 Mission Zero Fatality In India 3. RELATION BETWEEN ACCIDENTS AND VEHICLE GROWTH RATE prediction model developed exclusively for the National Highways is proposed to be used understand for the analysis. Prediction model has been developed with number of s to be predicted will be the independent variable with the various parameters such as Road Section and Geometry, Vehicular traffic, adequacy of traffic signs, availability of traffic signals & street lights, average speed of vehicle in the above sections etc as dependent variables. The no of s expected to occur is considered as the Independent Variable, which are contributed by the features of the road as Dependent variables. Specific weightage for each type of s are assigned based on the Cost for the same, to convert all types of s in a single unit. The factors considered for evaluating accident prone locations on road are as Lane configuration L, Presence of Median M, Median Width MW, Safety Barrier in Median SB, Shoulder width/type SW, Service roads SR, Footpath FP, Lighting LT, Road Condition RC, Operating speed with respect to Design speed DS, Traffic signs adequacy TS, Traffic signals TSG, Traffic volume with respect to capacity of road TV, Safety in Major junctions MJ and Fencing F. Using the above factors, an accident prediction model has been developed by regression analysis as detailed below: ACCI= L M-0.09MW+0.781SB-58.5SW-41.40SR-3.46FP LT RC DS+18.8TS-1.39TSG+0.006TV-5.09MJ-0.22F. On perusal of the above model, it is observed that the accident rate could be brought down to a greater extent by improving the shoulder width/type and service roads. As such, it s apparent that, as discussed earlier, improving the shoulder & Service roads, we can reduce the accident rate at a lesser cost since the cost of improvement of shoulder is cheaper than the construction of flyovers and increasing lane configuration. Shoulders are the portion which are constructed adjacent to the main highway black topped portion to hold the same from edge breaking by supporting the same. The standard width of the same varies from 1.50 m to m depending upon the classification of the road. Normally, the shoulders are made of earth or gravel. Sometimes, the same may strengthened by stones which are called as Hard Shoulders or by black topping which is called as Paved shoulders to increase the capacity of the road in urban areas. Service roads are a part of highway constructed parallel to the man highway, constructed with the objective to segregate the local traffic from the main highway for the safety of the road commuters. The normal width of the service road would be minimum of 3.50 m to 7.50 m with a minimum of 5.50 m if the same is executed to cater two traffic in urban reach. The service road will be of same composition of main highway, which will be connected to the main carriageway by proper acceleration & deceleration lane for safety of road users. In order to ascertain the effect of reduction in accident rate due to improvement of shoulders & service roads, the weightage given for the each item of dependent variables are modified to the extent that the improvements are made for shoulders & service roads to reduce the accidents. The details of the weightage given as per the present site conditions and the improvements made for the shoulders & Service roads are prepared individually to ascertain the reduction of the accidents for the following stretches are tabulated below as Table 2, Table 3 and Table 4 respectively. Padalur to Trichy section of NH 45. Thanjavur to Trichy section of NH 67 from Km to Thanjavur to Trichy section of NH 67 Km to editor@iaeme.com

4 G. Athipathi, S. Nagan and T.Baskaran Tiruchi to Thuvarankurichi section from Km 0.00 to Km section of NH-45B. Tindivanam Ulundurpet section of NH 45 from km to Table 2 Prediction of National Highways as per present Road Condition: Variables Stretch A Stretch B Stretch C Stretch D Stretch E L M MW SB SW SR FP LT RC DS TS TSG TV MJ F Total No of s as per Report Total No of s as per Model Accuracy Table 3 Prediction of National Highways as Per Present Road Condition with Improvements to Shoulders Only Variables Stretch A Stretch B Stretch C Stretch D Stretch E L M MW SB SW SR FP LT RC DS TS TSG TV MJ F Total No of s as Per Report Total No of s as Per Model Accuracy editor@iaeme.com

5 Mission Zero Fatality In India Table 4 Prediction of National Highways as Per Present Road Condition with Improvements to Service Roads Only Variables Stretch A Stretch B Stretch C Stretch D Stretch E L M MW SB SW SR FP LT RC DS TS TSG TV MJ F Total No of s as Per Report Total No of s as Per Model Accuracy On perusal of the Table 2, 3 & 4, it is observed that there is certainly a reduction in the accident rate to the extent of desirable level consequent to the improvements to the shoulders & Service road with no improvements to the other features. The abstract of the same are made for better understanding of the effect of improvements to shoulders & service roads in reduction of the accidents and tabulated in Table 5. Table 5 Prediction of National Highways as Per Present Road Condition with Improvements to Shoulders & Service Roads for Better Understanding Stretc h Actual Acciden t as Per Report Actual as Per Existing Conditio n Improvemen ts to Shoulders Only Prediction as per model % of Reduction for Improveme nt to Shoulders Improvemen ts to Service Roads Only % of Reduction for Improveme nt to Service Roads A B C D E On perusal of the above table, it is observed that reduction of rate from 11% to 50% could be achieved, consequent to the improvements to shoulders and 15% to 69% for improvements to the service roads. As such, by making some improvement combinedly for both the shoulders & service roads, accident rate can be brought down or kept under control till next improvement proposal in a highway as desired editor@iaeme.com

6 G. Athipathi, S. Nagan and T.Baskaran 4. ZERO FATALITY The cost of fatal accidents are having the major effect on the economy of the country. On perusal of the updated cost of accidents as on 2011, fatal accidents contribute to the major loss in the total share of the accident costing, which is apparent from the Table 6 below. Sl. No. Table 6 Updated Cost of s as on 2011 as Per WPI Type of accident Cost of s 1990 Updated for 2011 Since the fatal accidents account for major loss, the concept of having zero fatality that is being adopted in most of developed countries has been renamed as project vision zero. With the model developed by us, we could able to predict the accident expected to occur in the near future presuming no major improvements & maintaining the same condition it is as of today. With the accidents predicted, we need to arrive a solution for forecasting the required improvement in next five years. As already decided, the idea is there shall be no fatal accidents. Every highway project stretch has a pattern of accidents and the composition & nature of accidents are almost same over a period of years. Table 7 and 8 shows the composition of accidents in two stretches of National Highways where accidents are reported to be more for the past three years. Table 7 pattern in Trichy Padalur Section of NH 45 Table 8 pattern Tindivanam Ulundurpet Section of NH Fatal Serious injury (grievous) Minor injury Car damage Two wheeler Bus Truck Fatal Grievous Injury Minor Injury Vehicle Damages Nos % Nos % Nos % Nos % Fatal Grievous Injury Minor Injury Vehicle Damages Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % On perusal of the Tables 7 & 8, it is observed that the accidents are more or less similar over a period of time. We can fix the composition of accidents for the above two stretches as detailed in Table editor@iaeme.com

7 Mission Zero Fatality In India Sl No Stretch Table 9 Average Composition of s for Two Stretches Tindivanam Ulundurpet Section of NH 45 Trichy Padalur Section of NH 45 Fatal Composition of s in % Grievous Minor Injury Injury Vehicle Damage With the above data, we can predict the composition of the accidents for the above two stretches with the accident predicted in the above two stretches as mentioned in section 5. From the above, we could ascertain the number of accidents category wise such as Fatal, grievous, minor injury & vehicle damage. With the predicted accidents, we could calculate the accident severity index and the same for the above two stretches are tabulated in Table 10. With the above data, we can determine the composition of the s expected to occur in Trichy Padalur section of NH 45 till 2025 and tabulated in Table 11. Table 10 No of s in Tindivanam Ulundurpet Section of NH 45 Growth Rate Total No of s in Tindivanam Ulundurpet Section of NH 45 Fatal Grievous Minor (@ Injury Injury 14%) (@17%) (@50%) Vehicle Damage (@19%) Index 14% 17% 50% 19% Growth Rate Table 11 no of accidents in Trichy Padalur Section No of s in Trichy Padalur Section Total Fatal Grievous Injury Minor Injury Vehicle Damage Index 5% 12% 43% 40% editor@iaeme.com

8 G. Athipathi, S. Nagan and T.Baskaran Growth Rate No of s in Trichy Padalur Section Total Fatal Grievous Injury Minor Injury Vehicle Damage Index As per our target of this project for aiming zero fatalities, it can be presumed that the there shall be no fatalities in future and the same is considered as grievous and the composition of the accidents are modified accordingly. The Table 11 has been modified accordingly for the desired accident severity index in Trichy Padalur section presuming that there shall be no fatalities and reproduced as Table 12. On a quick look at the above table, we could understand that with the reduction in the fatalities, there would be a huge reduction in accident severity index even though the total number of accidents are same. Similarly, as per our target of this project for aiming zero fatalities, it can be presumed that the there shall be no fatalities in future and the same is considered as grievous and the composition of the accidents are modified accordingly. The table 4.6 has been modified accordingly for the desired accident severity index in Tindivanam Ulundurpet section presuming that there shall be no fatalities and reproduced as Table 12 with the above data, we can predict the composition of the accidents for the Tindivanam Ulundurpet section as mentioned in above. From the above, we could ascertain the number of accidents category wise such as Fatal, Grievous, Minor injury & Vehicle damage. With the predicted accidents, we could calculate the accident severity index and the same for the above stretch are tabulated in 12 Growth Rate Table 12 Desired No of s in Trichy Padalur Section Index Desired No of s in Trichy Padalur Section Vehicle Fat Grevious Minor Damag al Injury Injury e Total 0% 17% 43% 40% Desired Index (Assumin g No Fatal s ) editor@iaeme.com

9 Mission Zero Fatality In India On a quick look at the above table, we could understand that with the reduction in the fatalities, there would be a huge reduction in accident severity index even though the total numbers of accidents are same. Now, with the above desired level of accident severity, we could analyse and explore the various options that could be done to keep the accident rate at a desired level with the accident prediction model already developed. As per the accident model developed, we can keep all the variables same and by changing the values of one or two variables, we can bring the accident rate to the desired level. The exercise has been done in Trichy Padalur section of NH 45 as detailed in Table As per the below table, it can be understood that by doing some improvements only to the service roads and maintaining the other variables in the condition same at present, we can control the accident severity index to a greater extent. Service roads shall be constructed to ensure that fatal accidents are kept under control. By calculating the requirement of the service road, we can estimate the cost to be incurred to reduce the accident rate and a suitable preventive action can be taken by stake holders. Types of Variables Table 13 Trichy Padalur Section Value Adopted in 2011 Value to be Adopted in 2020 for No Improvements Value to be Adopted in 2020 No of Lanes in Each Direction Presence of Median Median Width Presence of Barrier If Any If the Median Width Less Than 1.20 m Shoulder Width Service Road Raised Foot Path for Pedestrians Lighting Rood Condition Design Speed Traffic Signs Traffic Signals in Major Junctions Traffic Volume Major Junctions Fencing for No Improvement Desired Total No of s as Per Model Accuracy FINDINGS s play a key role in finalsing the improvements required to be done for a Project Highway during augmentation. There is an increase in vehicle growth rate with respect to the increase in Population growth rate editor@iaeme.com

10 G. Athipathi, S. Nagan and T.Baskaran Even though there are various reasons for the s occurring, the increase Growth rate is directly influenced by the vehicle growth rate. With determination of the growth rate, we can have a forecast of the s expected to occur. Based on the above, the loss that would be incurred due to the s by costing. As such, any improvement shall be considered after taking in to the account of rate in addition to the existing parameters. REFERENCES [1] Dinesh Mohan, Road s in India, IATSS Research, Vol. 33 No.1, [2] Pawan Deshpande, Road Safety and Prevention in India: A Review, International Journal Advanced Engineering and Technology, Vol. V/Issue II/April-June, 2014, pp [3] Raj V. Ponnaluri, Road Traffic Crashes and Risk Groups in India: Analysis, Interpretations, and Prevention Strategies, IATSS Research, Vol. 35, (2012), pp [4] A. Veeraragavan, & R. R. Dinu, Random Parameters Models for Prediction on Two Lane Undivided Highways in India, Journal of Safety Research, [5] Rakesh Kumar Singh & S. K. Suman, National Institute of Technology, Patna, Analysis and Prediction Model on National Highways, International Journal of Advanced Engineering Technology Vol. I, Issue 2, [6] Rokade S., Singh K., Katiyar S. K. and Gupta S., Development of Prediction Model, International Journal of Advanced Engineering Technology, E-ISSN , Vol. I/ Issue III/, 2010, pp [7] J P Fletcher, C J Baguley, B Sexton and S Done, Road Modelling for Highway Development and Management in Developing Countries: Main Report: Trials in India and Tanzania by J P Fletcher, C J Baguley, B Sexton and S Done. Project Report No: PPR095 Department for International Department, DFID, Transport laboratory, United Kingdom. [8] Pramadavalli, Road Models for Large metropolitan cities of India, IATSS Research, Vol. 29, No.1, 2005, pp. 57 to 65 [9] Dahee Hong, Jeonghyun Kim, Wonchul Kim, Youngkyun Lee & Hoon Chul Yang, Development of Traffic Prediction Models by Traffic and Road Characteristics in Urban Areas, Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol. 5, 2000, pp [10] Dahee Hong, Youngkyun Lee, Jeonghyunkim, Hoon Chul Yang & Wonchulkimon, Development of Traffic Prediction Models by Traffic and Road Characteristics in Urban Areas, Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol. 5, 2005, pp [11] James L.Pline (Edr), Traffic Engineering Hand Book, Institute of Transportation Engineers, Washington DC, USA, [12] Nicholas T. Garber, Lester A. Hoel, Traffic and Highway Engineering, Revised Second Edition, ITP, California, USA, [13] Kadiyali, L.R., Traffic Engineering and Transport Planning, Khanna Publishers, Delhi, [14] Papacostas C.S., Prevedouros, Transportation Engineering and Planning, Third Edition, Prentice Hall of India, New Delhi,2002 [15] John D. Edwards, Jr. P.E, Transportation Planning Handbook, Institute of Transportation Engineers, Prentice Hall Publication, Washington D.C., USA,1999. [16] Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, Road s, [17] Government of Tamilnadu, Statistical Handbook for the State of Tamilnadu in editor@iaeme.com

11 Mission Zero Fatality In India [18] Jasvinder Singh, Mahipal Singh, Anil Baliram Ghubade and Manjinder Singh Analytical Hierarchy Process for Road of Motorcycle in India: A Case Study. International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology, 8(7), 2017, pp [19] Pooja Sikdar, Prof. Ahsan Rabbani, Prof. N.K. Dhapekar. Hypothesis of Data of Road s in India-Review. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, 8(6), 2017, pp [20] Government of India, Planning commission, NewDelhi, The Working Group Report on Road Transport for Eleventh Five Plan. [21] National Highways Authority of India, Road Forms editor@iaeme.com