Cycling and risk. Cycle facilities and risk management
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1 Cycling and risk Cycle facilities and risk management
2 Failure to recognize possibilities is the most dangerous and common mistake one can make. Mae Jemison, astronaut 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 2
3 What we ll talk about today Some policy context Cyclists as VRU s User needs & cycle facilities So What works? A human-centered perspective Concluding thoughts 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 3
4 Some policy context 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 4
5 Accommodating all road users 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 5
6 The role of policies & guidelines Policies & guidelines: A valuable tool Often based on legacy science Not necessarily current Don t account for some key issues: Active transportation modes Changing community priorities The need for flexibility 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 6
7 Emerging knowledge Cycling facilities: Non-traditional A shifting target Require flexibility The challenge: Dealing with road user expectancy Anticipating and identifying risk elements 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 7
8 Three key things to remember Context sensitive solutions: Can support a level of design flexibility Need to be defensible A policy commitment: Willingness to compromise functionality An underdeveloped cycling culture: Education & enforcement changes needed 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 8
9 The 3 E s of Safety and Cycling Engineering: Emerging knowledge Necessary but not sufficient Enforcement: Effective only when present Significantly lacking Education is absent 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 9
10 2 more E s Encouragement: Building mode share Perceived risk The comfort factor Evaluation: Learning from experience 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 10
11 Cyclists as VRU s 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 11
12 Vulnerable road users Pedestrians Adults Children & young adults Seniors Persons with disabilities Cyclists Various levels of expertise In-line skaters, skateboarders etc. 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 12
13 2007 Canadian collision stats 65 fatalities 425 serious injuries 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 13
14 Trends 2003 to 2007: No clear trends 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 14
15 Some York Region patterns (1) Total cycling collisions: Year Numbers of Accidents Total 247 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 15
16 Some York Region patterns (2) Collisions by type: Accident Type Numbers of Accidents Percentage Non-Fatal Injury % Property Damage Only 56 23% Fatal Injury 5 2% Other 8 4% Total % 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 16
17 Some York Region patterns (3) Where collisions happen: Accident Location Numbers of Accidents Percentage At Intersection and Intersection Related % Midblock 39 16% Near Private Driveway 30 12% At Railway Crossing 1 0.5% Other 1 0.5% Total % 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 17
18 Some interesting Dutch numbers 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 18
19 Pop quiz: What s the Risk? 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 19
20 Pop quiz: What s the Risk? 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 20
21 The tip of the iceberg Most statistics reflect on-road crashes Exclude: Paths, parking lots, driveways etc Falls & other non-collision events A US 3-state study: 70% of injuries did not involve a motor vehicle 31% were injured in non road locations 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 21
22 Cyclists most at risk Younger riders most vulnerable: years old: highest fatality & injury rate Rideouts from driveways & intersections Riding in wrong direction Crossing midblock Deaths of cyclists 25+ increasing: More riding (exposure) 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 22
23 For all bicycle/vehicle collisions One-third on local streets 75% with speed limit < 60km/h Alcohol involvement: One-third of fatal crashes 24% of cyclists killed: >0.08 Older cyclists, weekends, nighttime 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 23
24 Primary crash factors Wrong-way riding Sidewalk riding Presence of driveways Night bicycle riding The dooring problem Cyclists not obeying TCD s Crashes involving children 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 24
25 User needs & cycle facilities 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 25
26 All users are not created equal Advanced riders Basic adult riders Children 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 26
27 Space needs 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 27
28 Other needs Smooth Surface Connectivity 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 28
29 Cycling collision vectors (1) Traffic volumes Operating speeds Intersection complexity Parking Grades 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 29
30 Cycling collision vectors (2) Edge conditions Roadside Driveway frequency Pavement width constraints 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 30
31 Cyclists, traffic, and speed High volumes reduce cyclist comfort In heavy traffic cyclists need space: To pass To take avoidance action To be passed safely 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 31
32 Cyclists, traffic, and speed (2) Speed critical to bikeability & 32 km/h 5% 48 km/h 45% 64 km/h 85% fatal 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 32
33 The question of separation (1) Key influencing factors: Speed of motorized traffic; Intensity of motorized traffic; Functional class: Arterial, major collector; Minor collector, local. Intensity of cycle use: Growing into higher level facilities 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 33
34 The question of separation (2) The Dutch philosophy: The best situation for cyclists; The entire traffic situation is relevant; There are multiple possible solutions 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 34
35 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 35
36 Implications One size does not fit all; There are overlapping solutions: Context is important Cycle infrastructure can evolve; As cycling grows, facility needs change Start smart & evolve Sustainability is the key Network-level consistency critical 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 36
37 A key observation Increasing road segment complexity: May increase conflicts; May violate road user expectancies; May increase potential for error; Will increase intersection challenges; Road safety implications 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 37
38 So What works? 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 38
39 Statistical studies Very little reliable data Complexity & variety of treatments Non-transferability of European experience Difference in cycling culture Perception and fact are important 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 39
40 One recent Canadian review (UBC) Comprehensive literature review Some general conclusions: Clearly marked bike-specific facilities provide improved safety over on-road cycling with traffic or off-road with peds & other users Marked bike routes/lanes reduce injury & crash rates by half 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 40
41 One recent Canadian review (2) Some general conclusions (cont): Roundabout safety still a question Illuminate nighttime cycle routes Well maintained surfaces essential Under-reporting of crashes an issue Our understanding is still primitive 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 41
42 A human-centered perspective 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 42
43 It depends on what you measure Subjective feelings of comfort & safety are important to cyclists Affect Stress levels; Likelihood of modal choice; Likelihood of route choice; Cyclists seek to minimize stress 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 43
44 What we know about design Positive influences: Bike lane or paved shoulder Increasing width of bike lane or shoulder Increasing width of curb lane Presence of residential development 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 44
45 What we know about design (2) Negative influences: Increases in traffic volume Increases in vehicle speeds Presence of on-street parking Other negative factors: Presence of large trucks & buses Vehicles turning right into driveways Vehicles pulling into/out of on-street parking 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 45
46 Another perspective Danish study: Subjective vs. objective safety Inconsistencies exist between the two Reinforces to some degree findings of Canadian work Highlights ambiguity and inconsistency of evaluations 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 46
47 Concluding thoughts 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 47
48 Concluding thoughts (1) Cycle facilities: an emerging technology Reliable evaluations rare Safety trends distinguishable Design guidance still weak Human centered approach critical Risk management essential Identify early warning signs Monitor & evaluate Road safety failures are temporal 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 48
49 Concluding thoughts (2) The design process: Network-level consistency important Road user expectations Network continuity Consistent planning framework essential Document the process: ensure defensibility Multidisciplinary approach needed: Design, traffic engineering, human factors Enforcement, education, awareness 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 49
50 Concluding thoughts (3) The design process (continued): Don t ignore interactions/tradeoffs Check network effects: safety impacts leach spatially Explicitly evaluate safety North American cycling culture is still nascent: Follow the 5 E s Wayfinding is a missing link: An important driver/cyclist cue 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 50
51 Concluding thoughts (4) Use the sustainable approach: Don t temporize: commit & build Safety gains from growing presence Early successes nourish growth in use Education & encouragement are key Match facilities to growing use: Start simple, build in flexibility, adapt Early network connectivity is important Monitor, learn, and ACT.. 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 51
52 A last piece of advice Move FORWARD 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 52
53 Thanks John B. L. Robinson McCormick Rankin Corporation 6/11/2010 York Regional Council Cycling Workshop 53
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