Nielsen s Response to BRC Queries on Nov 15 RAMS

Transcription

1 Nielsen s Response to BRC Queries on Nov 15 RAMS Date: 22 January 2016

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3 IELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE TABLE OF CONTENTS Pg No UNIVERSE AND SAMPLE CHANGES We need to look how the change in universes by demos within province is influencing listening. From a quick analysis what we can see is that in the WC LSM 9 and 10 sample dropped by 21%, and the universe by 10% Are the changes in IHS pops that we saw in the TAMS universe update coming through at a national level in terms of the increase in 65+ age group and LSM 1-4? Key to this is to see how the economic downturn is impacting key demos, which will then impact listening Suggest that a rural/urban, Gender, LSM, working FT/PT, household size, age profiles by province across the Sep and Nov waves be run Have the LSM variable changes been implemented in the Nov wave? this could account for differences in LSMs between Sep and Nov? Summary of Nielsen s response to Point 1 Universe and Sample changes LISTENING DIFFERENCES Wave on wave across theses demos look at the key metrics (p7d, M-F, Sat, Sun) Suggest running exclusive listeners for RSG, CapeTalk and KFM in WC to gauge how much of a contribution these channels are making to the decline in overall radio. Something seems amiss with Saturday listening across WC, EC & LP (there could be pattern here) Look to do a non-listener analysis by province comparing the 2 waves which demos have not listened to any radio. From what we ve seen there has been an increase of 9% of the sample who haven t listened, weighted to 19% of the population. Limpopo has had a 63% increase in the nonlistener sample, and a 84% increase in audiences in 000 s. Limpopo demos reflect more LSM 4 5 in the Nov wave with fewer LSM 6, - this is consistent with the economic downturn. This is further validated by the decrease in working FT/PT population by 11%. This would suggest there would be a greater daytime audience available, but the results show a strong decrease in daytime listening. Summary of Nielsen s response to Point 2 Listening differences

4 IELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE TABLE OF CONTENTS Pg No SAMPLING METHODOLOGY / FIELD FORCE CHANGES Can they blow up the sample point map for the WC and Limpopo, so that we can more clearly see wave on wave differences? Has there been any change in the sampling starting points? Have they used different field force (Is this Quest still?) Briefing procedure changes. Field manager changes. Substitution levels wave on wave. Back checks by province wave on wave. Is there a possibility that more non-working main respondents were interviewed as they were more available. Has there been a change in the time of day of interviews ie more in daytime/easy to contact households? Can we look at placement/collection days across days of the week across the interview period this might account for the drop on the Saturday? Summary of Nielsen s response to Point 3 Sampling Methodology/Field Force changes WEIGHTING Have the weights been applied correctly? Have all weighting cells been accounted for? So I think they need to look at the 2 surveys (urban/rural) before they combine them ie the latest urban diaries on their own, the rural component from the earlier wave on its own and then the combined together. I know weighting is probably done once at the end but even in a manual way there has to be a way to separate out the results? Is there a change in the IHS area classifications that may been impacting in the WC in particular? Eg a rural area in the September Wave is reclassified as urban in November. Summary of Nielsen s response to Point 4 Weighting APPENDIX 1 - Analyses to assess impact of population changes Detailed demographics by province APPENDIX 2 - Listener Comparisons (National, N Cape, Free State, KZN, Mpumalanga, Gauteng, North-West) APPENDIX 3 - Nielsen s Detailed Investigations (W Cape, E Cape, Limpopo) APPENDIX 4 - Non-Listener Analyses by demographics (National, N Cape, Free State, KZN, Mpumalanga, Gauteng, North-West) APPENDIX 5 - Global Report REPORT COLOUR KEY Grey = BRC Questions Blue = Nielsen s Response Green = Summary of Response

5 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 1. UNIVERSE AND SAMPLE CHANGES: We would like to address the following questions at this point: 1.1. We need to look how the change in universes by demos within province is influencing listening Suggest that a rural/urban, Gender, LSM, working FT/PT, household size, age profiles by province across the Sep and Nov waves be run. Response: Impact of Universe Update: An annual population update of 1.6% was applied to the November 2015 RAMS release: From to ( adults). Results are comparable to previous RAMS releases, across the year. Impact of Update: Metro areas more than Rural More than half to Gauteng mainly Jhb, Reef, Pta Slightly more to Males Largely 35+ Predominantly Blacks White proportion now smaller Impact by Province: Within province, the impact is so small, that it cannot have a material effect on the Radio data. Even where there were population shifts, these did not always follow the same pattern as the 7-Day movements. Province Previous ulation Current ulation ulation Difference Change 000s 000s 000s % 7-Day Listening Western Cape Down Northern Cape Stable Free State Stable Eastern Cape Down KwaZulu-Natal Up Mpumalanga Stable Limpopo Down Gauteng Up North-West Stable Demographic Analyses Requested The demographic analyses comparing Sep to Nov for detailed demographics, within province, have been run and are included as Appendix 1 in this report. Where population movements within province are against the national trend, these have been flagged. P a g e 1

6 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 1.3. Are the changes in IHS pops that we saw in the TAMS universe update coming through at a national level in terms of the increase in 65+ age group and LSM 1-4? Response: The weighting is applied to the total national sample and the impact of these updates has been described under 1.1. The TAMS Universe is a sub-section of the total sample that has access to mains electricity, a working TV set and lives in private households. TAMS Universe updates reflect the population shifts of private households that have access to at least one working TV set. ulations in the TV Universe tend to be more changeable than those seen in the general South African population, since this Universe is impacted by unique factors such as electrification, disposable income and the purchase of durables. With regard to the 65+ age group, the growth in population at the national level has certainly been in the older age group. The 65+ age group has increased in RAMS (8.3% to 8.7%), in line with the IHS population. The TAMS Universe update also shows the same trend with the 65+s increasing from 7.9% to 9.1%. For LSM 1-4, there is marginal growth (not significant), at the national level: 21.4% to 22.7%. This is mirrored in the TAMS Universe update: 16.7% to 17.3% of households. P a g e 2

7 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 1.4. Key to this is to see how the economic downturn is impacting key demos, which will then impact listening. Response: It is Nielsen s understanding that IHS takes economic factors into account in calculating their estimates of the population update, at provincial level. In the IHS write-up in the AMPS 2015 July 2014-June 2015 Technical Report, it is stated that: All of the demographic model outputs form part of a larger cross-regional model that aims to be entirely internally consistent with the economic, labour, income and development factors of every region in South Africa. Thus, as new data becomes available on any regional or national indicators, the Cohort Component Demographic model is updated and checked for internal consistency. P a g e 3

8 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE LSM changes: Here we will be addressing the following questions: 1.2. From a quick analysis what we can see is that in the WC LSM 9 and 10 sample dropped by 21%, and the universe by 10% Have the LSM variable changes been implemented in the Nov wave? this could account for differences in LSMs between Sep and Nov? Response: The LSM variables were not changed for the November 15 release. There are no significant differences group by group, across the year. (Year Previous) (Current Survey) Looking at the Western Cape specific trends across the year for the grouped LSMs, a stable picture emerges for LSM 1-4, LSM 5-7 and LSM P a g e 4

9 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE In all three cases, the current Nov 15 incidence is identical to Oct 14 (year previous). There is a small decrease for LSM 8-10 from Sept 15 to Nov 15, with a corresponding small increase in LSM 5-7. We saw the same picture from Aug 14 to Oct 14. P a g e 5

10 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE Summary of Nielsen s response to Point 1 Universe and Sample changes A minor population update of 1.6% was applied to the Nov 15 release. Within province, the change was too small to have a material impact on listening. Economic factors would have been taken into account by IHS in calculating these estimates. In general, the same trends are reflected in the TAMS Universe Updates. LSM variables have not been changed for the Nov 15 RAMS release. The RAMS LSM trends are very similar to those seen in AMPS. In the Western Cape, a stable picture emerges across the year, for grouped LSMs, with the small changes seen in the middle and higher groups from Sep 15 to Nov 15 resembling those seen from Aug 14 to Oct 14. P a g e 6

11 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 2. LISTENING DIFFERENCES: 2.1. Wave on wave across theses demos look at the key metrics (p7d, M-F, Sat, Sun) Response: Detailed Listener analyses within province, by demographic, have been run for 7-days, Monday-Friday, Saturday and Sunday. In this section, we will discuss the three provinces that declined significantly (Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Limpopo). Statistically significant differences between the Sep 15 and Nov 15 releases have been flagged in yellow. The National comparison, as well as those for the remaining 6 provinces, are provided in Appendix 2. Please page over for the Western Cape listener comparison. P a g e 7

12 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE Western Cape Listener Comparison: Western Cape 7-day listening has declined significantly from 71.0% in Sep 15 to 66.1% in Nov 15. Interestingly, this decrease is completely proportionate across demographics, resulting in a November listener pool that has the identical demographic profile to that in September. Only Saturday audiences had a significant community change, with a bigger decline coming from the Small Urban/Rural sector. This demographic consistency validates the sampling, fieldwork and processing procedures in these two releases. P a g e 8

13 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE NIELSEN S DETAILED INVESTIGATION INTO THE WESTERN CAPE LISTENING DECLINE The first analysis of the data revealed the Western Cape Listening decline from Sep 15 to Nov 15 release. Nielsen immediately initiated an investigation and presented the findings at the RAMS Scrutiny meeting in November This full presentation is included as Appendix 3 in this report. Here is a summary of the findings: Listening is significantly down for 7 Days, Mon-Fri and Saturday Impact areas are Cape Town and Rural Commercial listening has declined significantly Demographic profiles of listeners are comparable samples are representative Flooded ratio is comparable : 2.76 Repertoires are stable : 1.8 stations Listening days remain at 4.9 Time Spent Listening has grown by 6 minutes ¼ Hour listening curve follows the national pattern, with slightly lower early morning and early afternoon levels, with same day shape Eventful fieldwork period fires, floods, bad weather, student protests, new DA leader Possible seasonal impact of Jan-Jun Rural sample Wave 2 was a low period for Cape Town it is again part of this release Separate Phone-Back Survey Nielsen phoned back a random sample of a 107 Cape Town Diarykeepers in mid-november to verify that: - they had been visited by the interviewer - they had indeed not listened to the Radio in their Diary interview period. The full report is included on page 26. P a g e 9

14 WESTERN CAPE 7-DAY TREND WITH EVENTS 2015 had a much higher incidence of fire/flood type events that could have impacted on listeners lifestyles. Reported damage was extensive. - Postponed fieldwork in affected suburbs (Scarborough, Hout Bay, Fish Hoek, Consantia, Tokai) to ensure no impact on Diary quality. Flood Fire NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE P a g e 10

15 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE Eastern Cape Listener Comparison: Eastern Cape 7-day listening has declined significantly from 80.3% in Sep 15 to 77.1% in Nov 15. There were no significant demographic movements from Sep 15 to Nov 15 in the Eastern Cape. Again the smaller November listening pool has an identical demographic profile to that in September, reinforcing the reliability of the survey procedures. P a g e 11

16 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE NIELSEN S DETAILED INVESTIGATION INTO THE EASTERN CAPE LISTENING DECLINE At the same time as the Western Cape investigation, Nielsen also undertook an investigation into Eastern Cape listening, also presented at the RAMS Scrutiny meeting in November This full presentation is included as Appendix 3 in this report. Here is a summary of the findings: Listening is significantly down for 7 Days and Saturday Mon-Fri is also down, Sunday listening is stable Both Commercial and Community listening is down significantly Demographic profiles of listeners are comparable even with new Rural sample Flooded ratio is identical : 2.44 Repertoires are identical : 1.7 stations Listening days are unchanged at 5.1 Time Spent Listening is up by 4 minutes ¼ Hour listening curve is almost identical to the previous Rural curve, with Sunday having higher late morning levels Possible seasonal impact of Jan-Jun Rural sample Eastern Cape Commercial Radio has high loyalty and exclusivity loss in a dominant station would result in a smaller pool of listeners Feud over Mandela s Qunu Estate, New King of the Xhosa nation sworn in at Nqadu Great Place P a g e 12

17 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE Limpopo Listener Comparison: Limpopo 7-day listening has declined significantly from 89.7% in Sep 15 to 81.0% in Nov 15. Again the smaller November listener pool has a very similar demographic profile to that in September, reinforcing the reliability of the survey procedures. The only difference is in the LSM 8-10 group, which has decreased in line with the total population profile of the province, with the population update. This is a small portion of the total Limpopo audience (4%) and could be economically related to all the strike activity in the province. P a g e 13

18 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE NIELSEN S DETAILED INVESTIGATION INTO THE LIMPOPO LISTENING DECLINE Nielsen also undertook an investigation into Limpopo listening trends and presented findings at the RAMS Scrutiny meeting in November This full presentation is included as Appendix 3 in this report. Here is a summary of the findings: Listening is significantly down across the week Both Commercial and Community listening is down significantly across a number of stations Demographic profiles of listeners are almost identical with new Rural sample Flooded ratio is almost identical : 2.57 Repertoires are down : 1.7 stations Listening days are unchanged at 5.2 Time Spent Listening is substantially down by 43 minutes ¼ Hour listening curve is at a lower level across the day but keeps the same day shape Possible impact of very eventful fieldwork period: Strike action at various Platinum mines; Municipal action; Malamulele municipal unrest/closure of trading operations; Lead up to Julius Malema court case; ANC by-elections; Ongoing worker problems at Medupi Power Station; ANC recalls two mayors from Mogalakweni and Blouberg A number of high loyalty stations have declined loss in a dominant station would result in a smaller pool of listeners P a g e 14

19 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE COMPARISON OF LISTENING AMPS VERSUS RAMS Although comparing different data sources is a good way of validating data, we do not recommend that AMPS radio is compared with RAMS for these two reasons: The Methodology differs between AMPS and RAMS Three general questions on radio listening are included in the AMPS survey to provide data for inter-media comparisons. The methodology is Recall across a 4-week, 7-day and Yesterday period. RAMS uses a 7-day Diary method for its currency. Listening is filled in as and when it occurs. A recall methodology tends to inflate larger/well-known station brands and usual stations listened to, and underestimate smaller stations and those listened to more infrequently. The extent of these differences varies by demographic, culture and lifestyle. From a research perspective, one cannot therefore compare these two different measures each has its own place. Release Periods for AMPS and RAMS differ The AMPS release reflects a 12-month Rolling national sample, with an identical fieldwork period span for both Urban and Rural. The RAMS release reflects a 6-month period but this differs between Urban and Rural. Urban data is rolled, like AMPS, across a 6-month period and includes the latest 3-month fieldwork period. Rural data is not rolled and is pulled in, in totality, when the 6-month fieldwork matures. The AMPS and RAMS releases therefore reflect different fieldwork periods and cover different time frames. P a g e 15

20 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 2.2. Suggest running exclusive listeners for RSG, CapeTalk and KFM in WC to gauge how much of a contribution these channels are making to the decline in overall radio. Response: Here are the stations in the Western Cape with the highest exclusive listenership. Depicted on the chart are the current (Nov 15) exclusive percentage, the previous (Sep 15) exclusive percentage and the difference in thousands across these releases. Western Cape Total Commercial 7-Day listening declined by from Sep to Nov Even though the RAMS survey is not a panel whereby station gains and losses can be properly quantified, the survey gives us an estimate of the potential maximum impact that the bigger exclusive stations could have on the total commercial listening decline. One often finds that when a High Exclusive station declines, lost listeners switch off completely and become Non-Radio listeners. The Western Cape top 8 exclusive stations could have contributed a potential maximum of of the commercial loss (45%). The bulk of this decrease comes from RSG ( ). Interestingly, we are also seeing increases in exclusivity for some of these more exclusive stations in this release: Umhlobo Wenene FM (+6%) and Heart 104.9FM (+19%). The fact that some stations increase while others decrease, provides comfort that there is no systematic bias in the data. P a g e 16

21 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 2.3. Something seems amiss with Saturday listening across WC, EC & LP (there could be pattern here) Response: In our investigation below, we have not found anything methodologically amiss with Saturday listening. Saturday is handled in the same way as any other day, so it would not have a different methodological impact. Saturday listening for the country as a whole, has been trending downwards across the year with the different releases. In the Nov 15 RAMS release, Saturday audiences declined in Western Cape, Eastern Cape and Limpopo and grew in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. Saturday audiences also declined significantly in Oct 14 (year previous) and Sep 15. Saturday Listening movements are two-directional in terms of demographics impacted, even across province and community size from a research perspective, this is reassuring as it confirms no systematic bias in the data. In the Western Cape, Saturday audiences have been steadily declining from the Jun 15 release. Here is a summary of the Western Cape Saturday and Sunday audience movements from Sep 15 to Nov 15: P a g e 17

22 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE Looking at Saturday, a number of stations are down, some are stable and one is in fact up, release on release. Only 3 stations that declined on a Saturday, have also declined on a Sunday. A number are stable on a Sunday and Heart and Kfm have in fact grown their audiences. What is interesting about the different Saturday/Sunday audience movements, is that the identical methodological issues would impact on both equally. The RAMS Diary is placed on the day of the AMPS CAPI interview. The Diarykeeper is instructed to start filling in their Diary the next day, so that it measures a full day. The Diary is specifically collated by the interviewer, on placement, to start with the correct day. The CAPI placement days are closely monitored week-by-week, with targets per week, by province. These weekly reports are sent to Client. Here are the three completed placement fieldwork reports for the first 3 waves of These were all completed on time, according to schedule. P a g e 18

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24 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE Interviewers are instructed to spread their interviews evenly across the week. This is closely monitored, wave by wave. Traditionally, Sunday placements can be lower, due to religious and cultural reasons. This table shows the day spread for the Western Cape placements in the Nov 15 release: RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 DAY OF INTERVIEW W Cape infs 1763 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Methodologically, Saturday is not handled differently to any other day. Therefore, different Saturday station trends would reflect reality. P a g e 20

25 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE In Limpopo, both the Jun 15 and Nov 15 surveys saw a decline, coming from the new Rural Samples. Here is a summary of the Limpopo Saturday and Sunday audience movements from Sep 15 to Nov 15: Both Saturday and Sunday movements are very similar, station by station. Again, we see a mixed bag of movements with Capricorn positively against the trend. Here is the Day Spread for Limpopo placements in the Nov 15 release: RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 DAY OF INTERVIEW Limpopo infs 719 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday P a g e 21

26 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE Eastern Cape Rural Saturday listening declined in the Nov 15 survey. It grew significantly in the Jun 15 release. On a Saturday, the Eastern Cape decline is due to Umhlobo Wenene and trufm. The majority of stations are stable, with an increase for Ukhozi FM. Umhlobo Wenene comprises over one-third of total Eastern Cape Saturday listening and traditionally is a high exclusive station. Sunday listening in the Eastern Cape is slightly up, with the majority of stations stable, release on release. With the same methodology, the Saturday and Sunday movements are quite different. Below is the Day spread for Eastern Cape placements in the Nov 15 release: RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 DAY OF INTERVIEW E Cape infs 1750 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday P a g e 22

27 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 2.4. Look to do a non-listener analysis by province comparing the 2 waves which demos have not listened to any radio. From what we ve seen there has been an increase of 9% of the sample who haven t listened, weighted to 19% of the population. Limpopo has had a 63% increase in the non-listener sample, and a 84% increase in audiences in 000 s. Response: Detailed Non-Listener analyses within province, by demographic, have been run, comparing Sep 15 to Nov 15. In this section we will discuss the three provinces that declined significantly (Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Limpopo). Statistically significant differences between the two releases have been flagged. The National comparison as well as those for the remaining 6 provinces are provided in Appendix 4. Western Cape Non-Listener Comparison: The proportion of non-listeners in the Western Cape has grown significantly from 29.0% to 33.9% from the Sep 15 to the Nov 15 release. Looking at the detailed demographic composition of non-listeners, it would appear that the increase follows the same proportions as September. The only significant change is in community size where Large Urban Non-Listeners have significantly decreased and Small Urban/Rural Non-Listeners have increased. The drop in listening in the Nov 15 release is in the Rural area. The fact that the other demographics for non-listeners have maintained the same proportions, validates the sampling, fieldwork and processing procedures used in this release. P a g e 23

28 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE Eastern Cape Non-Listener Comparison: In the Eastern Cape, the proportion of non-listeners has increased from 19.7% in Sep 15 to 22.9% in Nov 15. This increase is spread in September proportions for Gender and Age, but is concentrated in the Black population group, in Small Urban/Rural areas and LSMs 1-4. Umhlobo Wenene FM is the main contributor it is a high exclusive station with a very strong loyalty factor. A drop for Umhlobo could result in a complete radio switch-off. P a g e 24

29 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE Limpopo Non-Listener Comparison: Here we will be addressing both questions 2.4 and Look to do a non-listener analysis by province comparing the 2 waves which demos have not listened to any radio. From what we ve seen there has been an increase of 9% of the sample who haven t listened, weighted to 19% of the population. Limpopo has had a 63% increase in the non-listener sample, and a 84% increase in audiences in 000 s Limpopo demos reflect more LSM 4 5 in the Nov wave with fewer LSM 6, - this is consistent with the economic downturn. This is further validated by the decrease in working FT/PT population by 11%. This would suggest there would be a greater daytime audience available, but the results show a strong decrease in daytime listening. Response: The proportion of non-listeners in Limpopo has increased significantly from 10.3% in Sep 15 to 19.0% in Nov 15. Due to the large rural component of this province (95%), LSM 1-4 has the biggest change, followed by LSM 5-7. This large rural component has also resulted in the unemployed sector showing the greater impact. As seen in the Western Cape results, Limpopo s non-listeners have grown in the same demographic proportion as the Sep 15 RAMS non-listeners in the province. This also confirms no systematic bias in the data and indicates a real change in listening, possibly as a result of events during the fieldwork period (strike action at various Platinum mines, municipal action, strikes at Medupi Power Station). P a g e 25

30 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE NON-LISTENERSHIP INVESTIGATION Introduction: Due to concerns regarding the drop in radio listening levels evidenced in the November 2015 data, Nielsen has conducted qualitative investigation into the reasons for not listening to radio in the Western Cape. In addition, Nielsen investigated lower listening levels in the rural areas of the Eastern Cape and Limpopo, the two other regions of concern. Methodology: Respondents who claimed not to have listened to the radio during the week of Diary placement were re-contacted telephonically to ascertain the reasons for this. A short backcheck questionnaire was designed which covered: Whether or not respondents have a radio at home or in the car Whether they ever listen to the radio at home or elsewhere Their reasons for not listening to the radio during the dates of Diary placement Whether or not they listened to the radio the week prior to the checkback and, if so, to which stations. Non-listeners in Cape Town from RAMS Waves 2 and 3 were re-contacted from 25 November 8 December For the rural areas of the Eastern Cape and Limpopo, non-listeners from RAMS Waves 1 and 2 were re-contacted from 25 November to 4 December Results: Cape Town: 107 successful backcheck calls were made. 106 respondents verified that they had filled in the Diary (1 could not remember), and that they had indeed not listened to the Radio during their Diary interview period. The major reasons given for not listening during the fieldwork period were: Didn t have time/too busy with work/studies/church/other things (37%) Don t listen to the radio prefer reading/ watching TV/ movies/playing music (17%) Don t have a radio (15%) 81% of these non-listeners claimed to have a radio in the home and or in the car. 81% of non-listeners have ever listened to the radio. At the time of backchecks, 36% of those contacted did not listen to the radio during the re-contact week. Eastern Cape Rural: 74 successful backcheck calls were made. All these respondents verified that they had filled in the Diary, and that they had indeed not listened to the Radio during their Diary interview period. The major reasons given for not listening during the fieldwork period were: No time/ was busy/ busy at school/ studying (32%) Don t have a radio/ no radio in the house (14%) No reason/no specific reason (12%) Don t like listening to the radio (7%) 78% of these non-listeners claimed to have a radio in the home and or in the car. 80% of non-listeners have ever listened to the radio. At the time of backchecks, 43% of those contacted did not listen to the radio during the re-contact week. P a g e 26

31 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE Limpopo Rural: 47 successful backcheck calls were made. All these respondents verified that they had filled in the Diary, and that they had indeed not listened to the Radio during their Diary interview period. The major reasons given for not listening during the fieldwork period were: Busy with exams/ schoolwork/ studying (18%) No radio at home/ don t have a radio (11%) Busy with work/ working nightshift (9%) Very busy/no specific reason (9%) 87% of these non-listeners claimed to have a radio in the home and or in the car. 96% of non-listeners have ever listened to the radio. At the time of backchecks, 32% of those contacted did not listen to the radio during the re-contact week. Summary A total of 228 successful backcheck calls were made. 227 of these confirmed that they had filled in the Diary (only 1 could not remember). All 227 confirmed that they had indeed not listened to the Radio during the fieldwork period. P a g e 27

32 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE Summary of Nielsen s response to Point 2 Listening differences Extensive demographic analyses, within province, for Listeners and Non-Listeners have been examined. For the three provinces with significant declines in listenership Western Cape, Eastern Cape and Limpopo the demographic profiles of both Listeners and Non-Listeners are in almost identical proportions Sep 15 to Nov 15. This confirms the reliability of all the survey processes from sampling, to fieldwork, to processing. The phone-backs to non-listeners in the 3 affected provinces 99% of these respondents confirmed that they had filled in their Diary and not listened during their Diary fieldwork week. Analysis of High-Exclusive Western Cape stations revealed that these could have contributed some 45% to the overall decline in Commercial listening, with the bulk of this coming from RSG. With regard to Saturday listening, the same survey methodology is applied across the week. While there have been total Saturday declines in some provinces, Sunday listening has in fact increased. P a g e 28

33 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 3. SAMPLING METHODOLOGY / FIELD FORCE CHANGES: 3.1. Can they blow up the sample point map for the WC and Limpopo, so that we can more clearly see wave on wave differences? Response: The sample point maps for Cape Town, Limpopo and Eastern Cape, blown up to size, follow this page. Two surveys are plotted for each area. For Cape Town, we have used two discreet Urban samples, Jun 15 and Nov 15. For Eastern Cape and Limpopo, the Sep 15 and Nov 15 samples are compared. These surveys had different Rural samples. The sample spread follows the population density in each case. Both plotted samples compare well and show comprehensive coverage of the region. P a g e 29

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37 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 3.2. Has there been any change in the sampling starting points? Response: For both Urban and Rural samples, a Random Start Fixed Interval Technique is used to draw the actual sampling points. In the case of the Urban sample, place names together with number of sampling points required, are fed into the Nielsen GeoFrame Address Register. The computer then calculates the sampling interval and generates a random start, consistent with this interval. To illustrate that different random starts are drawn, we pulled 5 samples in Kempton Park, all with the same sample size. The plotted map follows. The fact that the sampling points are differently spread for each of these 5 samples, verifies that different starting points are being chosen. P a g e 33

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39 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE For the Rural Sample, a two-stage process is followed: Stage 1 is the selection of places to be sampled within the province and this is done using a Random Start Fixed Interval Technique. We have looked at the starting points for Limpopo Rural across the last 4 discreet Rural samples. The following random starting points were generated: Survey Random Start First Sampling Point July December 2012 January June 2013 January June 2014 January June Letaba non-urban Letaba non-urban Messina non-urban Messina non-urban The second stage is the selection of GPS coordinates from the Nielsen GeoFrame. This would be random across the non-urban area selected above. P a g e 35

40 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 3.3. Have they used different field force (Is this Quest still?) Response: Fieldwork was not outsourced for the contract/extended contract period. Nielsen has a dedicated in-house Field team for media audience research. The team is drawn from the best interviewers and must have at least 6 months working experience on other projects, before being considered for AMPS/RAMS. The table below summarises the number of core versus new interviewers who conducted the fieldwork for Eastern Cape, Western Cape, Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng for the 2014/2015 RAMS releases Wave Wave Wave Wave 4 FIELDWORK WAVES 2014 Wave Wave Wave Wave Wave 3 Eastern Cape Core Interviewers New Interviewers Total Resigned Western Cape Core Interviewers New Interviewers Total Resigned Limpopo Core Interviewers New Interviewers Total Resigned KwaZulu-Natal Core Interviewers New Interviewers Total Resigned Gauteng Core Interviewers New Interviewers Total Resigned The Western Cape field force was expanded in 2015 to better cope with survey flow. A common core of interviewers was, however, retained. Note: Quest is used for TAMS recruitment only. P a g e 36

41 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 3.4. Briefing procedure changes. Response: There were no changes made to the way in which briefings were conducted in 2014 and 2015 compared to previous years. Briefing AMPS/RAMS 2014A: Briefings were done in Johannesburg, Durban and Cape Town in January 2014, in the week before the start of fieldwork. The Nielsen Senior Research Executive personally briefed the field interviewers and field supervisors/managers on the changes made for the AMPS 2014A and Jan-Jun 2014 RAMS Diary. Nielsen Client Service was also present at the Johannesburg briefing to provide input on questions from interviewers. A SAARF representative accompanied the Research Executive to all the briefing sessions. Each interviewer receives a detailed instruction booklet for AMPS and RAMS. This booklet also contains summaries of all changes made to the survey. Briefing AMPS/RAMS 2014B: At the end of June 2014, debriefing sessions were held for the 2014A surveys in Johannesburg, Durban and Cape Town. A short briefing of the changes for AMPS/RAMS 2014B was held after the debriefing sessions. This is the standard briefing procedure. Briefing AMPS/RAMS 2015A/B: As 2015 was essentially a repeat of the 2014 survey (with the exception of print, radio and TV lists) it was agreed with SAARF that a face-to-face briefing in Johannesburg would be adequate and that the Media Field Lead would travel to all branches to brief the interviewers and managers/supervisors. The Nielsen Research Executive conducted the briefing in Johannesburg and accompanied the Media Field Lead to Cape Town. The AMPS/RAMS 2015A debriefing was conducted in Johannesburg in July The 2015B questionnaires were identical to 2015A, with updated media lists. Additional briefings/training sessions 2015 The Media Field Lead made additional trips to the Pretoria and Cape Town branches mid-year to re-train/re-brief the interviewers on the survey procedures. Before Wave 4 commenced, the Media Field Lead visited all branches to follow-up on any field issues. P a g e 37

42 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 3.5. Field manager changes. Response: At branch level, the field supervisors functionally organise the work at the branch. The managerial role is assumed by the dedicated Media Field Lead and the Field Operations Lead who effectively manage the branch from Johannesburg. This is achieved through daily telephonic contact as well as frequent personal visits. These roles have been filled by the same people for the past 5 years, providing consistent and experienced management for the Media Field branches. Movement at supervisory level does occur more regularly this has always been the case. The consistent flow across the fieldwork period, as well as the meeting of targets by individual provinces, demonstrates that the supervisory function is working well. All the QC checks on the data are handled from the Johannesburg branch. This includes checkbacks which are deliberately separate from the field supervisory function. Any redo s are completed before the data is released. P a g e 38

43 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 3.6. Substitution levels wave on wave. Response: The table below summarises the proportion of the samples for the last 4 RAMS releases that were substituted for reasons such as outright refusal, security and no contact after 4 calls have been made. Province SUBSTITUTES JUN 15 SEP 15 NOV 15 Western Cape Northern Cape Free State Eastern Cape KwaZulu-Natal Mpumalanga Limpopo Gauteng North-West Total Nielsen has always openly disclosed our substitution figures. We have very strict substitution procedures in place and substitution is carefully monitored throughout fieldwork. Any urban substitution that occurred 1km or further from the original address, is investigated. If it is found that the interviewer has not followed the procedures, the questionnaire is rejected and redone. Substitution levels by interviewer are tracked and if they are found to be on the increase, the interviewer is investigated. Even though our Field division has consistently implemented new procedures for obtaining original interviews, the success rate has decreased slightly over time, due to security concerns. P a g e 39

44 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 3.7. Back checks by province wave on wave. Response: Contractually Nielsen must perform at least 15% back checks on completed work. The Back-check summaries below for the Sep 15 and Nov 15 RAMS releases reflect that more than the required 15% call-backs have been done for each province: 21% for Sep 15 and 24% for Nov % back checks are done on suspect work and on interviewers that are new to the survey. Also indicated in the summaries below are the number of questionnaires that were re-done as a result of either check-backs or other internal quality checks. These were redone prior to data release. P a g e 40

45 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 3.8. Is there a possibility that more non-working main respondents were interviewed as they were more available. Response: The proportion of employed Diarykeepers in Nov 15 (45.0%) is almost identical to the Sep 15 (44.8%) percentage. Employment status comparisons, by province, are provided in Appendix 1. There are no significant differences in any province. P a g e 41

46 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 3.9. Has there been a change in the time of day of interviews ie more in daytime/easy to contact households? Response: The AMPS survey is a 4-Call survey: initial call + 3 call-backs at different times of the day and on different days of the week. The first call is done after 5pm on a weekday or on the weekend. This is strictly applied in urban areas to maximise the chance of the interviewer making contact with someone at home. If the required respondent (according to the grid) is available, he/she is interviewed. The fourth call (or substitute call) is done on a different day to all 3 previous calls, and must be in the evening or over a weekend, unless the interviewer has made an appointment with the respondent. The table below summarises the successful calls by time of day for the Sep 15 and Nov 15 RAMS releases. Time of Day 9am 1pm Call 1 Successful Call 2 Successful Call 3 Successful Call 4 Successful Sep 15 Nov 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Sep 15 Nov pm 5pm pm 6pm pm or later There has not been a change in the contact times of households, wave on wave. No changes were made to the Callprocedures. There is no concern on Nielsen s side that more easy to contact households were interviewed for the Nov 15 release. P a g e 42

47 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE Can we look at placement/collection days across days of the week across the interview period this might account for the drop on the Saturday? Response: Contractually, Nielsen must ensure that placements are spread across the days of the week, and interviewing must be spread across the fieldwork period. Sunday placements can be lower, due to religious and cultural reasons. The table below shows the percentage of placements done for the Sep 15 and Nov 15 RAMS releases by day of week. Sep 15 % Nov 15 % Monday Tuesday The Sep 15 and Nov 15 Diary placement proportions across the week are very similar Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Respondents start filling in their diaries on the day after the placement, so that it measures a full day. Methodologically, Saturday is not handled differently to any other day. The placement days are closely monitored week-by-week, with provincial weekly targets. Fieldwork Progress Reports are sent to Client weekly. Three complete 2015 reports are included in the response to Question 2.3. P a g e 43

48 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE Summary of Nielsen s response to Point 3 Sampling Methodology/Field Force changes Samples have been plotted for the provinces with listenership declines the distribution of points and coverage is comparable between Sep 15 and Nov 15. While there is natural churn in fieldforce personnel, a substantial core of experienced interviewers and managers has been retained across the year. Substitution levels are increasing as a result of growing security concerns. The close similarity in demographic profiles, by province, between the Sep 15 and Nov 15 surveys, indicates that this small increase in substitution has not had a material impact on survey composition. For both the Sep 15 and Nov 15 releases, Nielsen has conducted more than the required 15% back-checks 21% and 24% respectively. These back-checks, together with the other internal quality checks conducted, resulted in between 2% and 3% of interviews needing to be redone, before the data was analysed and released. With regard to time of day for interviews, this was comparable between Sep 15 and Nov 15. The consistent proportion of employed Diarykeepers indicates that the call procedures are being adhered to. P a g e 44

49 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 4. WEIGHTING: In this section we will be addressing both 4.1 and Have the weights been applied correctly? Have all weighting cells been accounted for? 4.2. So I think they need to look at the 2 surveys (urban/rural) before they combine them ie the latest urban diaries on their own, the rural component from the earlier wave on its own and then the combined together. I know weighting is probably done once at the end but even in a manual way there has to be a way to separate out the results? Response: INTERNAL DOUBLE-CHECKS On first analysis of the Nov 15 RAMS results, and noticing the provincial listening movements (declines for Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Limpopo, increases for KZN and Gauteng), Nielsen immediately initiated a double-check of all the processes in November 2015, prior to sending the datafile to the bureau and before the Scrutiny Meetings. This included reconstituting the final combined file from the individual components; checking all the demographic and quarter hour data manipulations; and comparing listening data from a sample of respondents on the final datafile back to their source paper diaries. The weighting was also re-checked to ensure every respondent has a weight, that the populations for key weighting demographics matched the relevant IHS population estimates; and that the weighting factors for Nov 15 were similar to those in Sep 15. No discrepancies were found in any of these processes. ADDITIONAL GLOBAL VALIDATIONS In addition to the local verification exercises conducted by the Nielsen RAMS Team, the Nielsen Global Stats Team, based in the U.S., conducted further statistical analyses and data checks on the November 15 dataset, together with the Sep 15 dataset. They too verified that the file was correctly constituted by building it from scratch from its raw elements. Detailed weighting checks were also conducted. They confirmed that no errors occurred in the weighting process. As stated by Etienne Josserand, Lead Data Scientist, Methods We did not observe any evidence to indicate that the W3 radio audience estimates were inaccurate Their report is included as Appendix 5. P a g e 45

50 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE 4.3. Is there a change in the IHS area classifications that may been impacting in the WC in particular? Eg a rural area in the September Wave is reclassified as urban in November. Response: The RAMS sample data is weighted by the following 4 community classifications: 1. Metropolitan ( population size) 2. City/Large Town ( ) 3. Small Town/Large Village/Small Village ( ) 4. Settlements (less than 500 population) + Rural (Non-urban + Tribal areas) The population update applied to the Nov 15 RAMS release had a small impact of 1.6% for the total country. Very few places changed their community size definition. The majority of these movements were within group 3, therefore not impacting on the community weighting categories at all. Two sampled settlements were re-classified as Small Villages 1 in Northern Cape and 1 in Mpumalanga. Therefore, no change in the area classifications though the IHS update process could have impacted on the November 15 RAMS results. Summary of Nielsen s response to Point 4 Weighting All RAMS QC processes and weighting have been double-checked by the local team for the Nov 15 and Sep 15 surveys. In addition, the Nielsen Global Statistical Team has validated these processes and reconstituted the final data files from the individual raw components. They confirmed that there were no errors in the weighting that could have impacted on results. P a g e 46

51 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE APPENDIX 1 Analyses to assess impact of population changes Detailed demographics by province

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53 Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change Total % % SEX MALE % % % % % FEMALE % % % % % AGE % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % POP GROUP BLACKS % % % % % COLOUREDS % % % % % INDIANS % % % % % WHITES % % % % % COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN % % % % SMALL URBAN/ RURAL NATIONAL W.CAPE WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE % % % % % Proportion of WC Rural unchanged % EMPLOYMENT Employed % % % % % Unemployed % % % % %

54 NATIONAL W.CAPE Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change METRO AREA Cape Town % % % % % CT Fringe % % % % % PE/Uit % % EL % % Dbn % % PMB % % Kimberley % % Bloem % % Vaal % % Gtr JHB % % Soweto % % Reef % % Pta % % emalahleni % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

55 NATIONAL W.CAPE WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change LSM % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % LSM % % % % % LSM % % % % Growth in WC LSM % LSM % % % % % AVE ADULT HOUSEHOLD SIZE

56 Sep Nov Diff Total % '000 '000 '000 %Change Total % SEX MALE % % FEMALE % % AGE % % % % % % % % POP GROUP BLACKS % % COLOUREDS % % INDIANS % % WHITES % % COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN % % SMALL URBAN/ RURAL NATIONAL % % EMPLOYMENT Employed % % Unemployed % % N.CAPE Sep Nov Diff % '000 '000 '000 %Change % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

57 NATIONAL N.CAPE Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change METRO AREA Cape Town % % CT Fringe % % PE/Uit % % EL % % Dbn % % PMB % % Kimberley % % Bloem % % Vaal % % Gtr JHB % % Soweto % % Reef % % Pta % % emalahleni % % % % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

58 NATIONAL N.CAPE Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change LSM % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % LSM % % LSM % % LSM % % AVE ADULT HOUSEHOLD SIZE % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

59 Sep Nov Diff Total % '000 '000 '000 %Change Total % SEX MALE % % FEMALE % % AGE % % % % % % % % POP GROUP BLACKS % % COLOUREDS % % INDIANS % % WHITES % % COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN % % SMALL URBAN/ RURAL NATIONAL % % EMPLOYMENT Employed % % Unemployed % % FREE STATE Sep Nov Diff % '000 '000 '000 %Change % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

60 NATIONAL Sep Nov Diff Total % '000 '000 '000 %Change METRO AREA Cape Town % % CT Fringe % % PE/Uit % % EL % % Dbn % % PMB % % Kimberley % % Bloem % % Vaal % % Gtr JHB % % Soweto % % Reef % % Pta % % emalahleni % % FREE STATE Sep Nov Diff % '000 '000 '000 %Change % % % % % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

61 NATIONAL Sep Nov Diff Total % '000 '000 '000 %Change LSM % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % LSM % % LSM % % LSM % % AVE ADULT HOUSEHOLD SIZE FREE STATE Sep Nov Diff % '000 '000 '000 %Change WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Upward movement for LSMs compared to National trend % % % %

62 Sep Nov Diff Total % '000 '000 '000 %Change Total % SEX MALE % % FEMALE % % AGE % % % % % % % % POP GROUP BLACKS % % COLOUREDS % % INDIANS % % WHITES % % COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN % % SMALL URBAN/ RURAL NATIONAL % % EMPLOYMENT Employed % % Unemployed % % E.CAPE WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE Sep Nov Diff % '000 '000 '000 %Change % Smaller increase than National - Minor, no posible impact on results % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % EC Rural proportion is stable % % % % % %

63 NATIONAL E.CAPE Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change METRO AREA Cape Town % % CT Fringe % % PE/Uit % % EL % % Dbn % % PMB % % Kimberley % % Bloem % % Vaal % % Gtr JHB % % Soweto % % Reef % % Pta % % emalahleni % % % % % % % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

64 NATIONAL E.CAPE Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change LSM % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % LSM % % LSM % % LSM % % AVE ADULT HOUSEHOLD SIZE % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Growth in LSM % % % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

65 Sep Nov Diff Total % '000 '000 '000 %Change Total % SEX MALE % % FEMALE % % AGE % % % % % % % % POP GROUP BLACKS % % COLOUREDS % % INDIANS % % WHITES % % COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN % % SMALL URBAN/ RURAL NATIONAL % % EMPLOYMENT Employed % % Unemployed % % KWAZ/NAT WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE Sep Nov Diff % '000 '000 '000 %Change % Smaller increase than National - Minor, no posible impact on results % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Rural proportion unchanged % % % % % % %

66 NATIONAL KWAZ/NAT Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change METRO AREA Cape Town % % CT Fringe % % PE/Uit % % EL % % Dbn % % PMB % % Kimberley % % Bloem % % Vaal % % Gtr JHB % % Soweto % % Reef % % Pta % % emalahleni % % % % % % % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

67 NATIONAL KWAZ/NAT Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change LSM % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % LSM % % LSM % % LSM % % AVE ADULT HOUSEHOLD SIZE % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Some growth for LSM % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

68 Sep Nov Diff Total % '000 '000 '000 %Change Total % SEX MALE % % FEMALE % % AGE % % % % % % % % POP GROUP BLACKS % % COLOUREDS % % INDIANS % % WHITES % % COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN % % SMALL URBAN/ RURAL NATIONAL % % EMPLOYMENT Employed % % Unemployed % % MPUM. Sep Nov Diff % '000 '000 '000 %Change % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE % % % % % % % % % % % White proportion has marginally grown % % % % % % % % % % % % %

69 NATIONAL MPUM. Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change METRO AREA Cape Town % % CT Fringe % % PE/Uit % % EL % % Dbn % % PMB % % Kimberley % % Bloem % % Vaal % % Gtr JHB % % Soweto % % Reef % % Pta % % emalahleni % % % % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

70 NATIONAL MPUM. Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change LSM % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % LSM % % LSM % % LSM % % AVE ADULT HOUSEHOLD SIZE WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Upward movement for LSMs compared to National trend % % % %

71 Sep Nov Diff Total % '000 '000 '000 %Change Total % SEX MALE % % FEMALE % % AGE % % % % % % % % POP GROUP BLACKS % % COLOUREDS % % INDIANS % % WHITES % % COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN % % SMALL URBAN/ RURAL NATIONAL % % EMPLOYMENT Employed % % Unemployed % % LIMPOPO WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE Sep Nov Diff % '000 '000 '000 %Change % No change to population - no possible impact on results % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Decrease in Employment % % % Increase in Unemployment %

72 NATIONAL LIMPOPO Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change METRO AREA Cape Town % % CT Fringe % % PE/Uit % % EL % % Dbn % % PMB % % Kimberley % % Bloem % % Vaal % % Gtr JHB % % Soweto % % Reef % % Pta % % emalahleni % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

73 NATIONAL LIMPOPO Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change LSM % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % LSM % % LSM % % LSM % % AVE ADULT HOUSEHOLD SIZE % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

74 Sep Nov Diff Total % '000 '000 '000 %Change Total % SEX MALE % % FEMALE % % AGE % % % % % % % % POP GROUP BLACKS % % COLOUREDS % % INDIANS % % WHITES % % COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN % % SMALL URBAN/ RURAL NATIONAL % % EMPLOYMENT Employed % % Unemployed % % GAUTENG Sep Nov Diff % '000 '000 '000 %Change % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

75 NATIONAL GAUTENG Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change METRO AREA Cape Town % % CT Fringe % % PE/Uit % % EL % % Dbn % % PMB % % Kimberley % % Bloem % % Vaal % % Gtr JHB % % Soweto % % Reef % % Pta % % emalahleni % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

76 NATIONAL GAUTENG Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change LSM % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % LSM % % LSM % % LSM % % AVE ADULT HOUSEHOLD SIZE % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

77 Sep Nov Diff Total % '000 '000 '000 %Change Total % SEX MALE % % FEMALE % % AGE % % % % % % % % POP GROUP BLACKS % % COLOUREDS % % INDIANS % % WHITES % % COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN % % SMALL URBAN/ RURAL NATIONAL % % EMPLOYMENT Employed % % Unemployed % % N.WEST Sep Nov Diff % '000 '000 '000 %Change % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE % % Minor decrease in Employment % % % %

78 NATIONAL N.WEST Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change METRO AREA Cape Town % % CT Fringe % % PE/Uit % % EL % % Dbn % % PMB % % Kimberley % % Bloem % % Vaal % % Gtr JHB % % Soweto % % Reef % % Pta % % emalahleni % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

79 NATIONAL N.WEST Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Total % % '000 '000 '000 %Change '000 '000 '000 %Change LSM % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % LSM % % LSM % % LSM % % AVE ADULT HOUSEHOLD SIZE % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WHERE PROVINCE IMPACT DIFFERS FROM NATIONAL PICTURE

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81 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE APPENDIX 2 Listener Comparisons National Northern Cape Free State KwaZulu-Natal Mpumalanga Gauteng North-West

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83 NATIONAL 7 Day Ave Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov Infs Total Listener '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 SEX MALE FEMALE AGE POP GROUP BLACKS COLOUREDS INDIANS WHITES COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN SMALL URBAN/ RURAL LSM LSM LSM LSM

84 NATIONAL 7 Day Ave Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov Infs Total Listener '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 METRO AREA Cape Town CT Fringe PE/Uit EL Dbn PMB Kimberley Bloem Vaal Gtr JHB Soweto Reef Pta emalahleni EMPLOYMENT Employed Unemployed

85 Infs Total Listener SEX MALE FEMALE N.CAPE 7 Day Ave Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 ' AGE POP GROUP BLACKS COLOUREDS INDIANS WHITES COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN SMALL URBAN/ RURAL LSM LSM 1-4 LSM 5-7 LSM

86 Infs Total Listener METRO AREA Cape Town CT Fringe PE/Uit EL Dbn PMB Kimberley Bloem Vaal Gtr JHB Soweto Reef Pta emalahleni EMPLOYMENT Employed Unemployed N.CAPE 7 Day Ave Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '

87 Infs Total Listener SEX MALE FEMALE FREE STATE 7 Day Ave Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 ' AGE POP GROUP BLACKS COLOUREDS INDIANS WHITES COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN SMALL URBAN/ RURAL LSM LSM 1-4 LSM 5-7 LSM

88 Infs Total Listener METRO AREA Cape Town CT Fringe PE/Uit EL Dbn PMB Kimberley Bloem Vaal Gtr JHB Soweto Reef Pta emalahleni EMPLOYMENT Employed Unemployed FREE STATE 7 Day Ave Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '

89 Infs Total Listener SEX MALE FEMALE KWAZ/NAT 7 Day Ave Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 ' AGE POP GROUP BLACKS COLOUREDS INDIANS WHITES COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN SMALL URBAN/ RURAL LSM LSM 1-4 LSM 5-7 LSM

90 Infs Total Listener METRO AREA Cape Town CT Fringe PE/Uit EL Dbn PMB Kimberley Bloem Vaal Gtr JHB Soweto Reef Pta emalahleni EMPLOYMENT Employed Unemployed KWAZ/NAT 7 Day Ave Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '

91 Infs Total Listener SEX MALE FEMALE MPUM. 7 Day Ave Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 ' AGE POP GROUP BLACKS COLOUREDS INDIANS WHITES COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN SMALL URBAN/ RURAL LSM LSM 1-4 LSM 5-7 LSM

92 Infs Total Listener METRO AREA Cape Town CT Fringe PE/Uit EL Dbn PMB Kimberley Bloem Vaal Gtr JHB Soweto Reef Pta emalahleni EMPLOYMENT Employed Unemployed MPUM. 7 Day Ave Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '

93 Infs Total Listener SEX MALE FEMALE GAUTENG 7 Day Ave Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 ' AGE POP GROUP BLACKS COLOUREDS INDIANS WHITES COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN SMALL URBAN/ RURAL LSM LSM 1-4 LSM 5-7 LSM

94 Infs Total Listener METRO AREA Cape Town CT Fringe PE/Uit EL Dbn PMB Kimberley Bloem Vaal Gtr JHB Soweto Reef Pta emalahleni EMPLOYMENT Employed Unemployed GAUTENG 7 Day Ave Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '

95 Infs Total Listener SEX MALE FEMALE N.WEST 7 Day Ave Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 ' AGE POP GROUP BLACKS COLOUREDS INDIANS WHITES COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN SMALL URBAN/ RURAL LSM LSM 1-4 LSM 5-7 LSM

96 Infs Total Listener METRO AREA Cape Town CT Fringe PE/Uit EL Dbn PMB Kimberley Bloem Vaal Gtr JHB Soweto Reef Pta emalahleni EMPLOYMENT Employed Unemployed N.WEST 7 Day Ave Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '

97 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE APPENDIX 3 Nielsen s Detailed Investigations Western Cape Eastern Cape Limpopo

98

99 ANALYSIS OF WESTERN CAPE TOTAL LISTENING

100 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. INCIDENCE OF LISTENING IN WESTERN CAPE 100 Impact areas: CTown + Rural % Past 7 Days Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov (3 143) (2 315) (2 038) (1 861)

101 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. STATION MOVEMENTS WESTERN CAPE STABLE DOWN Lotus ( ) Sig RSG ( ) SAfm ( ) Kfm ( ) Smile 90.4FM ( ) Heart FM ( ) Umhlobo Wenene FM ( ) CapeTalk ( ) Radio 2000 ( ) Total Commercial Radio ( ) Metro FM ( ) Sig Total Community Radio ( ) Algoa FM ( ) 5FM ( ) Good Hope FM ( ) Sig

102 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE WESTERN CAPE LISTENERS Blacks Coloureds Indians Whites Male Female Sep Nov

103 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. SAMPLE SIZES WESTERN CAPE Primary Respondents Flooded Respondents Total Sample Flooding Ratio Sep Nov Comparable

104 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. TIME SPENT LISTENING PER DAY WESTERN CAPE + 6 mins 2h50 2h56 Sep 15 Nov 15

105 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary RADIO LISTENING BY ¼ HOUR WESTERN CAPE 50% Sep-15 AVE MON-FRI Nov-15 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

106 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary RADIO LISTENING BY ¼ HOUR WESTERN CAPE 50% Sep-15 AVE SATURDAY Nov-15 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

107 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary RADIO LISTENING BY ¼ HOUR WESTERN CAPE 50% Sep-15 AVE SUNDAY Nov-15 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

108 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. NUMBER OF STATIONS PER WEEK WESTERN CAPE Sep 15 Nov 15

109 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. NUMBER OF DAYS SPENT LISTENING PER WEEK WESTERN CAPE Sep 15 Nov 15

110 TIME SPENT LISTENING IN WESTERN CAPE Total - Bok (2.4), 2.0 = 5FM (2.0), CCFM (1.3), 1.7 = Radio 786 (1.9), 2.1 = CapeTalk (2.2), Smile (0.9), West Coast (0.2), 1.0 = Tygerberg (2.8), Heartbeat (0.4), Zibonele (3.4), Eden (2.0), Umhlobo (22.4), Metro (4.8), Voice of the Cape (4.0), Other Cmrcl (4.0), Other Cmnty (5.9), RSG (13.3), Good Hope (6.5), 6.8 = Heart (9.3), Kfm (10.3), 9.5 % Gross ¼ hours : Ave. Mon-Fri (Sep 15) vs Nov 15

111 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. ANALYSIS WESTERN CAPE Listening is significantly down for 7 Days, Mon-Fri and Sat Impact areas are Cape Town and Rural Commercial listening has declined significantly Nielsen phone-backs verified non-listener claims Demographic profiles of listeners are comparable samples are representative Flooded ratio is comparable : 2.76 Repertoires are stable : 1.8 stations Listening days remain at 4.9

112 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. ANALYSIS WESTERN CAPE Time Spent Listening has grown by 6 minutes ¼ Hour listening curve follows the national pattern, with slightly lower early morning and early afternoon levels, with same day shape Possible seasonal impact of Jan-Jun Rural sample Wave 2 was a low period for Cape Town it is again part of this release

113 ANALYSIS OF EASTERN CAPE RURAL LISTENING

114 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. INCIDENCE OF LISTENING IN EASTERN CAPE RURAL % Past 7 Days Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov (2 489) (1 834) (1 803) (1 798)

115 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. STATION MOVEMENTS EASTERN CAPE RURAL UP STABLE DOWN Lesedi FM ( ) RSG ( ) Ukhozi FM ( ) Algoa FM ( ) trufm ( ) Sig Sig Sig Umhlobo Wenene FM ( ) Total Commercial Radio ( ) Total Community Radio ( )

116 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE EASTERN CAPE RURAL LISTENERS Blacks Coloureds Indians Whites Male Female Sep Nov

117 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. SAMPLE SIZES EASTERN CAPE RURAL Primary Respondents Flooded Respondents Total Sample Flooding Ratio Sep Nov Same

118 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. TIME SPENT LISTENING PER DAY EASTERN CAPE RURAL + 4 mins 2h53 2h57 Sep 15 Nov 15

119 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary % RADIO LISTENING BY ¼ HOUR EASTERN CAPE RURAL AVE MON-FRI Sep-15 Nov-15 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

120 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary % RADIO LISTENING BY ¼ HOUR EASTERN CAPE RURAL AVE SATURDAY Sep-15 Nov-15 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

121 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary % RADIO LISTENING BY ¼ HOUR EASTERN CAPE RURAL AVE SUNDAY Sep-15 Nov-15 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

122 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. NUMBER OF STATIONS PER WEEK EASTERN CAPE RURAL Sep 15 Nov 15

123 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. NUMBER OF DAYS SPENT LISTENING PER WEEK EASTERN CAPE RURAL Sep 15 Nov 15

124 TIME SPENT LISTENING IN EASTERN CAPE RURAL = Algoa FM (2.6), Alfred Nzo (4.6), RSG (3.6), Forte (1.6), Lesedi (1.3), trufm (2.5), Unitra (1.7), Vukani (1.7), Other Cmnty (5.6), 3.3 = Other Cmrcl (4.3), Ukhozi (4.3), Umhlobo (66.2), 71.5 % Gross ¼ hours : Ave. Mon-Fri (Sep 15) vs Nov 15

125 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. ANALYSIS EASTERN CAPE RURAL Listening is significantly down for 7 Days and Sat Mon-Fri is also down, Sun listening is stable Both Commercial and Community listening is down significantly Nielsen phone-backs verified non-listener claims Demographic profiles of listeners are comparable even with new Rural sample Flooded ratio is identical : 2.44 Repertoires are identical : 1.7 stations Listening days are unchanged at 5.1

126 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. ANALYSIS EASTERN CAPE RURAL Time Spent Listening is up by 4 minutes ¼ Hour listening curve is almost identical to the previous Rural curve, with Sunday having higher late morning levels Possible seasonal impact of Jan-Jun Rural sample ECape Commercial Radio has high loyalty and exclusivity loss in a dominant station would result in a smaller pool of listeners Feud over Mandela s Qunu Estate; New King of the Xhosa nation sworn in at Nqadu Great Place

127 ANALYSIS OF LIMPOPO RURAL LISTENING

128 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. INCIDENCE OF LISTENING IN LIMPOPO RURAL % Past 7 Days Mon-Fri Sat Sun Sep Nov (3 162) (2 318) (2 400) (2 337)

129 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. STATION MOVEMENTS LIMPOPO RURAL UP STABLE DOWN Capricorn FM ( ) Radio 2000 ( ) ikwekwezi FM ( ) Ukhozi FM ( ) Munghana Lonene FM ( ) Metro FM ( ) Thobela FM ( ) Sig Sig Sig Sig Sig Sig Jacaranda FM ( ) Motsweding FM ( ) Phalaphala FM ( ) 5FM ( ) Total Commercial Radio ( ) Total Community Radio ( )

130 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE LIMPOPO RURAL LISTENERS Blacks Coloureds Indians Whites Male Female Sep Nov

131 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. SAMPLE SIZES LIMPOPO RURAL Primary Respondents Flooded Respondents Total Sample Flooding Ratio Sep Nov Very Similar

132 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. TIME SPENT LISTENING PER DAY LIMPOPO RURAL - 43 mins 3h58 3h15 Sep 15 Nov 15

133 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary % RADIO LISTENING BY ¼ HOUR LIMPOPO RURAL AVE MON-FRI Sep-15 Nov-15 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

134 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary % RADIO LISTENING BY ¼ HOUR LIMPOPO RURAL AVE SATURDAY Sep-15 Nov-15 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

135 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary % RADIO LISTENING BY ¼ HOUR LIMPOPO RURAL AVE SUNDAY Sep-15 Nov-15 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

136 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. NUMBER OF STATIONS PER WEEK LIMPOPO RURAL Sep 15 Nov 15

137 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. NUMBER OF DAYS SPENT LISTENING PER WEEK LIMPOPO RURAL Sep 15 Nov 15

138 TIME SPENT LISTENING IN LIMPOPO RURAL - Jac (4.2), Other Cmrcl (5.1), Metro (2.5), Botlokwa (0.1), GCR FM (2.5), Tubatse (0.6), ikwekwezi (1.7), Other Cmnty (11.8), Capricorn (5.9), Thobela (39.9), Munghana (11.2), Phalaphala (14.5), 15.2 % Gross ¼ hours : Ave. Mon-Fri (Sep 15) vs Nov 15

139 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. ANALYSIS LIMPOPO RURAL Listening is significantly down across the week Both Commercial and Community listening is down significantly across a number of stations Nielsen phone-backs verified non-listener claims Demographic profiles of listeners are almost identical with new Rural sample Flooded ratio is almost identical : 2.57 Repertoires are down : 1.7 stations Listening days are unchanged at 5.2

140 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. ANALYSIS LIMPOPO RURAL Time Spent Listening is substantially down by 43 minutes ¼ Hour listening curve is at a lower level across the day but keeps the same day shape Possible impact of very eventful fieldwork period : Strike action at various Platinum mines; Municipal action; Malamulele municipal unrest/closure of trading operations; Lead up to Julius Malema court case; ANC by-elections; Ongoing worker problems at Medupi Power Station; ANC recalls two mayors from Mogalakweni and Blouberg. A number of high loyalty stations have declined loss in a dominant station would result in a smaller pool of listeners

141 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE APPENDIX 4 Non-Listener Analyses by demographics for National Northern Cape Free State KwaZulu-Natal Mpumalanga Gauteng North-West

142

143 NON-LISTENER ANALYSIS NATIONAL N.CAPE FREE STATE KWAZ/NAT MPUM. GAUTENG N.WEST Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff INFS Total '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 SEX MALE FEMALE AGE POP GROUP BLACKS COLOUREDS INDIANS WHITES COMMUNITY LARGE URBAN SMALL URBAN/ RURAL

144 NON-LISTENER ANALYSIS NATIONAL N.CAPE FREE STATE KWAZ/NAT MPUM. GAUTENG N.WEST Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff INFS Total '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 METRO AREA Cape Town CT Fringe PE/Uit EL Dbn PMB Kimberley Bloem Vaal Gtr JHB Soweto Reef Pta emalahleni

145 NON-LISTENER ANALYSIS NATIONAL N.CAPE FREE STATE KWAZ/NAT MPUM. GAUTENG N.WEST Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff Sep Nov Diff INFS Total '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 LSM LSM LSM LSM EMPLOYMENT Employed Unemployed

146

147 NIELSEN S RESPONSE TO BRC QUERIES RAMS NOVEMBER 2015 RELEASE APPENDIX 5 Global Report

148

149 Analysis of November 2015 Radio Survey Nielsen - Data Science Jan. 20, 2016 Radio total listening analysis for RAMS During the third wave of 2015 (November 2015), a significant decrease of the total 7-day radio listening was observed in three provinces: Western Cape, Eastern Cape, and Limpopo. This document represents an analysis into reason for such a dramatic drop in total listening in these areas. We will aim to investigate whether this was a true phenomenon in the population or was the product of methodological considerations within the South Africa RAMS service. Request Statistical analysis of the difference in total listening in the past 7 days using the following waves: 14W6 (February 2015) 15W1 (June 2015) 15W2 (September 2015) 15W3 (November 2015) This will be performed by region, with special attention to the areas with the largest drops in total listening (Western Cape, Eastern Cape, and Limpopo). The analysis will be stratified by Gender, Age Groups, Race, Employment Status (Full/Part-time vs. Not Employed), and Urban/Rural designation. Regression analysis will also be considered in which each of these variables are examined together with the drops. The goal of the analysis is to explain the reasoning for the lower recordings of total 7-day listening. Descriptive Statistics The following table shows the [weighted] cumulative audience (cume) for All Radio in each province during the last 4 survey waves: Waves Province W6 W1 W2 W3 Gauteng Kwazulu-Natal Free State Northern Cape Western Cape Eastern Cape Limpopo Mpumalanga North-West

150 For the Western Cape and Limpopo, it is evident that there is a decreasing trend in listening levels. During the last wave (November 2015), the decrease in total listening seems to be more pronounced for Western Cape and Limpopo. Even if there is a little drop in Eastern Cape during the wave 3 compared to wave 2, the cume is actually slightly higher than one year ago (wave 6, December 2014). It is in Limpopo where the larger decrease happens during the last wave. However, it is interesting to note that the decrease between wave 1 and wave 2 is minimal (the reason for this may be seen below). The cume can also be computed un-weighted. This is useful to observe the listening pattern without any weighting adjustment: Waves Province W6 W1 W2 W3 Gauteng Kwazulu-Natal Free State Northern Cape Western Cape Eastern Cape Limpopo Mpumalanga North-West The results remain similar which suggests that the weighting is not the cause of decreasing pattern. That is, the decreases were not manufactured from the weighting process for the Western Cape and Limpopo. Within each wave, the sample is composed of diaries from the previous survey and fresh newly sampled diaries. The following table shows the sample count for Western Cape, Eastern Cape and Limpopo: Sample size Proportion Wave Province New Prev. Total New Prev. W1 Eastern Cape % 24.39% W1 Limpopo % 4.65% W1 Western Cape % 28.27% W2 Eastern Cape % 67.25% W2 Limpopo % 92.45% W2 Western Cape % 64.37% W3 Eastern Cape % 32.76% W3 Limpopo % 7.38% W3 Western Cape % 38.36%

151 One can note that most of the sample during wave 2 was rolled over from the previous wave. This most probably explains the stability for the total listening in Limpopo between wave 1 and 2. However, the last wave contains mostly fresh sampled diaries. Thus, if there was a steadily decreasing radio audience in any rural province, this would not be detected in Wave 2 because of the large amount of sample re-use from Wave 1. Weight distribution In this section, the focus will be on weight distribution between listeners and non-listeners during the last wave (November 2015). Log-weights comparison for Western Cape: Weights are slightly higher among the non-listeners in Western Cape Province. The magnitude of the difference is not large (even on a normal scale) and the unweighted counts show the design does not significantly contribute to the lower ratings.

152 Log-weights comparison for Eastern Cape: There is no difference in the weight distribution between listeners and non-listeners for Eastern Cape. Log-weights comparison for Limpopo: In Limpopo, the average weight is much greater compared to the listeners. This may account for a couple of percentages in the decrease but not much more since the un-weighted cume is already lower.