REPORT OF THE ENGINEERING & PLANNING DEPARTMENT PLANNING DIVISION

Transcription

1 REPORT OF THE ENGINEERING & PLANNING DEPARTMENT PLANNING DIVISION TO: Mayor John Rowswell and Members of City Council SUBJECT: Official Plan Review 2008 Part 1 - Population and Household Projections The Planning Division is presently undertaking a review of the Official Plan. Given economic trends and recent growth, new Provincial Policy, changing environmental regulations, and development trends, it is appropriate to re-evaluate the OP, which was adopted in The attached population and household projections are the first of a 3-part series of upcoming presentations to City Council. More specifically: Part 1 - Population and Household Projections Residential Demand Projecting the City s population and subsequent housing demands through The City s population is aging, and there are not enough workers to fill future job vacancies created by retirements. There exists potential for growth. Given relatively low birth rates and high death rates, such growth is conditional upon the community s ability to attract migrants to fill job vacancies. Part 2 - Residential Land Inventory Residential Supply Identify the existing residential land supply within the urban settlement area. Based upon projected residential demand, and current residential supply within the urban settlement area, appropriate residential lands adjacent to the urban settlement area will also be identified and protected for future urban serviced residential development. Part 3 - Comprehensive Policy Review and Update The entire Official Plan is being reviewed and updated to better reflect current Provincial Policy and Legislation, development trends, and best practises. Based upon Part s 1 & 2, a review of the current urban settlement and rural area policies will be updated. As part of the Official Plan review the Planning Advisory Committee will also host a public workshop. Planning Director s Recommendation That City Council accept the attached Population and Household Projections as information.

2 Sault Ste Marie Official Plan Review 2008 Part 1: Population & Housing Projections Sault Ste Marie Engineering and Planning Department 2008 V 2.3

3 Introduction Official Plan Review Part 1: Population and Household Projections Part 2: Residential Land Inventory Part 3: Comprehensive Policy Review & Update

4 Introduction Population and Housing Projections Approved in 1996, the city s Official Plan projects no significant growth in Sault Ste Marie s population and housing demand. Given economic trends & recent growth, it is appropriate to re-evaluate the 1996 projections. Provincial Policy Statement requires the municipality to maintain at all times the ability to accommodate residential growth for a minimum of 10 years.

5 Historical Population Trends of City Year *Source: Statistics Canada

6 Methodology Age Cohort Method Future population is based on changes in projected births, deaths, labour force and migration.

7 Sources & Assumptions Base 2006 population provided by Statistics Canada Projected Birth and Death Rates by age/sex cohorts supplied by Ministry of Finance. Participation rates for Northeastern Ontario supplied by Statistics Canada Net migration is based upon a 0.5% annual economic increase per year, which assumes; An annual increase of 185 new jobs per year. An annual increase of 0.2% in local participation rates That people will move to Sault Ste. Marie to fill a job vacancy. An increase of 100 workers results in a total average migration of 158 people.

8 Historical and Projected Population

9 The City s population is aging Population Trends Total Births continue to decrease births per year births per year Total Deaths are increasing deaths per year deaths per year Total seniors (over 65) is increasing 2006 = 13, = 19,700 (+42%) Total super seniors (over 85) is increasing 2006 = 1, = 2,900 (+78%) Those leaving the workforce outnumber those entering the workforce.

10 Age Sex Graphs Population 2026 Population 80 to 84 years 80 to 84 years 70 to 74 years 70 to 74 years 60 to 64 years 60 to 64 years 50 to 54 years 50 to 54 years Male 40 to 44 years Female Male 40 to 44 years Female 30 to 34 years 30 to 34 years 20 to 24 years 20 to 24 years 10 to 14 years 10 to 14 years 0 to 4 years 0 to 4 years Population Population

11 90000 Historical and Projected Population Migrants Natural Growth Population Historical Population

12 Population Projections % Annual Labour Force Growth 0% Labour Force Increase Natural Increase * Based on Ministry of Finance Fertility & Mortality Rates ** 0.5% Labour Force Growth includes a 0.2% annual participation rate increase

13 Migrant Workers Required to Maintain Existing Labour Force Worker Shortage Labour Force With No Migration Worker Demand Per Year Based on 2007 Northeastern Participation Rates, Ministry of Finance Mortality/Fertility Rates Does not include 0.2% annual labour force participation rate increase

14 Migrant Workers Required to Achieve 0.5% Annual Labour Force Growth 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Worker Shortage 0.5% Labour Force No Migration 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Worker Demand Per Year Based on 2007 Northeastern Participation Rates with annual 0.2% labour force participation rate increase 2006 Ministry of Finance Fertility and Mortality rates.

15 Population Projection: Conclusions As a result of an aging population: Annual births are continuing to decrease Annual deaths are continuing to increase More people are retiring, and there are not enough people to fill those vacancies and new jobs Future growth is dependant upon: The ability of the community to attract new migrants. Tapping into an underutilized local labour force (increasing participation rates by 0.2% annually)

16 Household Projections Introduction Projected Household demand takes the population projections and applies household headship rates to each age/sex cohort. Provincial Policy requires the Municipality to maintain a minimum10-year supply of readily serviceable residential lands.

17 Historical & Projected Housing Demand

18 Housing Demand by Type Per Year Per Year Per Year Per Year Total Single Detached Up to 70 Up to 160 Up to 210 Up to 150 2,850 Units Semi- Detached Up to 10 Up to 15 Up to 20 Up to Units Row Housing Up to 10 Up to 15 Up to 15 Up to Units Apartments Up to 25 Up to 90 Up to 90 Up to 60 1,450 Units Total Up to 115 Per Year Up to 280 Per Year Up to 335 Per Year Up to 230 Per Year 4,750 Units

19 Dwelling Unit by Type 2006 & % 27.20% Single Deatched Semi Row 3.10% Apartm ent 3.24% 5.77% 64.43% 5.67% 63.89%

20 Household Demand Projection Conclusions Historical and Projected Housing Demand (Average New Housing Starts per Year) The overall housing demand by type will remain constant. Average household size will continue to decline slightly.

21 Next Steps Part 1 - Population & Household Projections Part 2 - Residential Development Potential What is the residential development potential within the existing Urban Settlement Area? Over the next years, can enough housing be supplied within the existing Urban Settlement Area? If not, what areas should be identified for future urban development? Part 3 Comprehensive Review and Update Conformity with 2005 Provincial Policy Statement Relevance to existing and future development trends and economic indicators. Rural Area Severance Policies.

22 Appendix i: 2006 & 2011 Populations 2006 Population Male Female Total 2011 Population Male Female Total 0 to 4 years 1,625 1,610 3,235 0 to 4 years 1,884 1,748 3,632 5 to 9 years 1,865 1,740 3,605 5 to 9 years 1,713 1,653 3, to 14 years 2,420 2,180 4, to 14 years 1,904 1,760 3, to 19 years 2,625 2,485 5, to 19 years 2,513 2,224 4, to 24 years 2,325 2,430 4, to 24 years 2,766 2,577 5, to 29 years 1,850 2,050 3, to 29 years 2,486 2,544 5, to 34 years 1,730 1,965 3, to 34 years 1,977 2,142 4, to 39 years 2,070 2,205 4, to 39 years 1,815 2,014 3, to 44 years 2,680 3,035 5, to 44 years 2,138 2,221 4, to 49 years 3,060 3,420 6, to 49 years 2,701 3,020 5, to 54 years 2,960 3,050 6, to 54 years 3,030 3,383 6, to 59 years 2,655 2,745 5, to 59 years 2,891 2,995 5, to 64 years 2,045 2,265 4, to 64 years 2,534 2,681 5, to 69 years 1,765 1,955 3, to 69 years 1,913 2,181 4, to 74 years 1,615 1,835 3, to 74 years 1,537 1,810 3, to 79 years 1,350 1,655 3, to 79 years 1,211 1,557 2, to 84 years 820 1,250 2, to 84 years 749 1,175 1, years and over 475 1,150 1, years and over 549 1,516 2,065 Total 35,935 39,025 74,960 Total 36,311 39,201 75,512

23 Appendix ii: 2016 & 2021 Populations 2016 Population Male Female Total 2021 Population Male Female Total 0 to 4 years 2,087 1,918 4,005 0 to 4 years 2,096 1,918 4,014 5 to 9 years 2,027 1,819 3,846 5 to 9 years 2,253 2,000 4, to 14 years 1,777 1,687 3, to 14 years 2,102 1,858 3, to 19 years 2,060 1,834 3, to 19 years 1,960 1,773 3, to 24 years 2,748 2,376 5, to 24 years 2,335 2,011 4, to 29 years 3,032 2,764 5, to 29 years 3,059 2,593 5, to 34 years 2,696 2,696 5, to 34 years 3,275 2,941 6, to 39 years 2,121 2,225 4, to 39 years 2,862 2,793 5, to 44 years 1,940 2,049 3, to 44 years 2,267 2,267 4, to 49 years 2,206 2,222 4, to 49 years 2,029 2,056 4, to 54 years 2,709 3,000 5, to 54 years 2,238 2,218 4, to 59 years 2,994 3,336 6, to 59 years 2,703 2,970 5, to 64 years 2,798 2,950 5, to 64 years 2,922 3,296 6, to 69 years 2,419 2,612 5, to 69 years 2,699 2,888 5, to 74 years 1,720 2,054 3, to 74 years 2,193 2,467 4, to 79 years 1,204 1,567 2, to 79 years 1,379 1,792 3, to 84 years 703 1,126 1, to 84 years 727 1,149 1, years and over 615 1,800 2, years and over 671 2,020 2,691 Total 37,856 40,035 77,891 Total 39,770 41,010 80,780

24 Appendix iii: 2026 Population 2026 Population Male Female Total 0 to 4 years to 9 years to 14 years to 19 years to 24 years to 29 years to 34 years to 39 years to 44 years to 49 years to 54 years to 59 years to 64 years to 69 years to 74 years to 79 years to 84 years years and over

25 Appendix iv: Population Projection Definitions Labour force: The total number of men aged & women aged 15-65, who are employed or seeking employment Labour Force Participation Rate: Percentage of men aged & women aged that are in the Labour Force. Net Migration: The difference of immigrants vs. emigrants to a particular area. Fertility & Mortality Rates: The amount of births & deaths to a particular age group.

26 Appendix v: Household Projection Definitions Household Those living in the same residence, traditionally comprised of a family unit. Household Headship Rate The likelihood that a person of a particular age will serve as the primary maintainer of a household, including the type of dwelling unit.