32 nd Annual CanaData Construction Forecasts Conference

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1 32 nd Annual CanaData Construction Forecasts Conference Economic Intelligence September 21 st, 2017 Toronto Peter Norman, VP & Chief Economist, Economic Consulting

2 Our Company Structure at a Glance ARGUS Advisory Data Solutions Voyanta Cost Consulting & Project Management Research, Valuation & Advisory Property Tax Geomatics 2

3 Today s Agenda Housing Market Adjustments Real or Fake News? The Economy: Benefits of Convergence Consumers Continue to be Stronger Than We Think What Lies Ahead for New Construction? 3

4 Recent Price Change, Existing Homes Y/Y % Change in Price, Monthly 19-month price history (Jan. -July 2017) August Y/Y price Canada Vancouver Calgary Regina Toronto Ottawa Montreal Moncton Guelph Oakville *Composite of eleven major markets Source: Altus Group, MLS HPI 4

5 Jan-06 Nov-06 Sep-07 Jul-08 May-09 Mar-10 Jan-11 Nov-11 Sep-12 Jul-13 May-14 Mar-15 Jan-16 Nov-16 Sep-17 Toronto Inventory Monitor Remaining Inventory (units) Month s of Resale Inventory Annual % Change Months Inventory Annual % Change in Price Source: Altus Economics, Altus Data Solutions, TREB 5

6 Toronto House Prices Vancouver Lower Mainland (resale single-family) Toronto (resale single-family) Toronto (new low rise) Toronto Single-Family Toronto (new high rise) Toronto Apartment 6

7 Housing Policy and Housing Market Performance Existing Home Sales (000s) Y/Y Change in Benchmark Price* (%) Year Am High Ratio definition 25% to 20% Tighter Standards 20% down on Invest. Properties Max 30 Yr Am HELOC Recession Total Home Sales, Canada Home Price Index Tighter federal Standards 25% 20% 15% Int Only 35 Yr Am 40 Yr Am Max 35 Yr Ams Min 5% DPmt Max 25 Yr Am Price Cap GDS max 39% Min 10% Downpmt above $500k OFSI raise K req. for banks BC Foreign Inv r Tax 10% 5% 0% Ontario Fair -5% Housing Plan % * CREA HPI 11-market aggregate composite index Source: Altus Group Economic Consulting based on data from CREA 7

2012 2017 2018 2019 Canadian House Prices: International Context and Future Expectations Year-over-year % Change in Price (CREA MLS HPI)* 20% 15% 14.

8 Canadian House Prices: International Context and Future Expectations Year-over-year % Change in Price (CREA MLS HPI)* 20% 15% 14.8% Based on Reuters Canada Housing Market Poll** 10% 5% 0% 2.7% 4.4% 5.4% 7.4% Max Median Response Min -5% * Dec over Dec ** Survey of 16 housing forecasters in August 2017 Source: Altus Economics, Economist.com, CREA: homepriceindex.com, Thompson 8

9 5-Year Annual Price Change, Existing Homes Apartments Single Family Composite Canada* Vancouver Calgary Regina Saskatoon Toronto Ottawa Montreal Moncton *Composite of eleven major markets Source: Altus Group, MLS HPI 9

10 Economic Outlook Average * e 2017f 2018f Year-to-Year Change Real GDP (economic growth, %) Employment Growth (persons, 000s) CPI (inflation, %) Real Personal Disposable Income per Capita (%) Year Mortgage Rate (banks, posted %) Year Mortgage Rate (banks, posted %) * Annual average Source: Historical - Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada Forecasts Altus Group Economic Consulting 10

11 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q Contributions to Canadian Economic Growth Household Consumption 2.0 Government Consumption - Capital Investment (2.0) Net Exports (4.0) Total Source: Statistics Canada 11

12 Growth Improving in Oil-Levered Provinces Oil producing* Ontario and B.C. Rest of Canada** 2017(f) 2018(f) (e) estimated, (f) forecast *Newfoundland and Labrador, Saskatchewan and Alberta **New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Quebec, Manitoba Source: Historical - Statistics Canada Forecasts Altus Group 12

13 Household Balance Sheet Factors % % % Debt to Personal Disposable Income Debt Service Ratio* Savings Rate *Interest only Source: Altus Economics based on Statistics Canada 13

14 Net Migration Trends Strongly Boosting Ontario * Annual Source: Statistics Canada 14

15 Population Growth, Ontario 000s Persons, 12 Months Ending December Natural Change International Migration Internal Migration Total Change Source: Statistics Canada 15

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2012 2017 GOC 10-yr Bond (Bloomberg) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2012 Aug 3. 3.30 4.72 4.17 4.10 3.86 3.51 3.31 2.83 2.77 3.31 5.23 5.62 5.

16 GOC 10-yr Bond (Bloomberg) Aug Government Bond and Mortgage Rates 10.0 Percent 5-Year Government Bond 8.0 Percent Year Mortgage Source: Altus Group based on data from Bank of Canada/ Major Financial Institutions/ Bloomberg 16

17 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-18 Exchange Rate Outlook 1.1 USD per CAD

18 Census Surprise v. 395k Total Annual Population Growth v. 185k Total Annual Housing Completions Average Annual Growth, Canada, 000s 500 Population Average Annual Growth, Canada, 000s Households Source: Altus Group based on Census of Canada, Statscan, CMHC 18

19 Housing Supply Dynamics are Complicated Housing Completions 925,000 Rise in Vacancy (40,000) Conversion to Non-Household Occupancy (100,000 to 115,000) Housing Demolitions (70,000 to 85,000) Secondary Suites and Other 55,000 Total Household Growth 750,000 altusgroup.com Source: Altus Group analysis and estimates based on Statistics Canada and CMHC data 19

20 Household Growth by Tenure and Birth Cohort, Net New Units (000s) 2,000 1,500 1, ,023 1, Total Renter Household Growth Total Owner Household Growth Total Household Growth ,202 1,692-1,000-1,500-1,042-1, s 1990s 1980s 1970s 1960s 1950s Before 1950 Total Decade of Birth altusgroup.com

21 Avg f 2018f 2019f Avg f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f s Units Buoyant Housing Starts Forecast Ahead 80% 70% 60% 50% 200 Single-Family SF % of Total Apartment s Units Historical Forecast Source: Altus Economics based on CMHC 21

22 (f) 2018(f) 2019(f) (f) 2018(f) 2019(f) (f) 2018(f) 2019(f) Forecast by Province 000s Units Single-Family Apartment BC Alberta Man/Sask Source: CMHC, Altus Group Economic Consulting 22

23 (f) 2018(f) 2019(f) (f) 2018(f) 2019(f) (f) 2018(f) 2019(f) Forecast by Province 000s Units Single-Family Apartment 0.0 Ontario Quebec Atlantic Source: CMHC, Altus Group Economic Consulting 23

24 Private Purpose-built Rental Apartment Starts & Rental Apartment Starts 35 Private Purpose-built Rental Apartment Starts, Canada*, (000s units) Recent Momentum in Rental Apartment Starts by CMA Medium Term ** Short Term *** Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Saskatoon Regina Winnipeg Toronto Ottawa Montreal Halifax Jan-July *Centres 50,000+ ** over *** First half 2017 Y./Y Source: Altus Group Economic Consulting based on data from CMHC 24

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Continues 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Residential Renovation Spending, Canada

25 Residential Renovations Our Love Affair Continues Residential Renovation Spending, Canada Billions $ Source: Altus Group Economic Consulting based on Statscan Data 25

26 Want to Stay Ahead of the Competition? Altus Group Housing Provides the Little Numbers Behind the Big Picture 26

27 Thank you. National Economic Advisory 33 Yonge St., Toronto, Suite th Street SW, Calgary, Suite West Georgia Street, Vancouver, Suite 630 Peter Norman Vice President &

The Canadian Real Estate Association News Release

The Canadian Real Estate Association News Release Canadian home sales activity strengthens in July Ottawa, ON, August 15, 2018 Statistics 1 released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)