Five Ways the 2016 Census Affects Marketers

Transcription

1 Five Ways the 2016 Census Affects Marketers February 15, 2018 Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer Rupen Seoni Senior Vice President and Practice Leader

2 Today s presenters Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer Rupen Seoni Senior Vice President and Practice Leader 2

3 housekeeping Listen-only mode for attendees Questions at the end. Use the Webex Q&A Feature in your Interface Technical difficulties? Presentation deck will be available environicsanalytics.com/webcasts 3

4 1. Growth or decline? It Depends where you are 4

5 Canada s Population increased by 1.7 million between Census Population and Growth Rate, Canada Census Population (millions) Census Population (millions) Census Population Growth Rate (%) % 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Census Population Growth Rate (%) Source: Statistics Canada, various Censuses

6 Growth was highest in Northern and Western Canada Population Growth Rate (%), Canada, Provinces and Territories, and to to % NU AB SK MB YK BC Canada ON QC PEI NL NWT NS NB 2.9 Source: Various Censuses

7 Growth in Alberta has declined, but it is still close to average Population Growth 3.5% 3.0% Alberta 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Saskatchewan Ontario Canada Ontario Saskatchewan Canada Alberta 0.5% Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates 7

8 big markets are getting bigger, while growth in rural areas slows Population by Geography Growth Rate Rural 17% Medium Sized 12% Other 29 CMAs 24% Largest 6 CMAs* 47% % 6 Largest CMAs* Other CMAs Medium Sized 1.4 Rural * Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa-Gatineau, Edmonton Source: Statistics Canada, various Censuses

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10 Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census

11 1. Growth or decline? It Depends where you are Marketing implications Growth in Canada is very localized. Marketers shouldn t make plans based on generalities Use data tailored to your specific market, trade area, etc. to assess opportunities 11

12 Demographic estimates and projections 12

13 2. It s official: we re old 13

14 Canada Now has More Seniors than Children Percent of Population, Canada Age 0-14 Age 65+ % Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census; Medium projections 14

15 By 2046, one in Four Canadians will be 65 Years and older Percent of Population, Canada Age 0-14 Age 65+ % Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census; Medium projections 15

16 And this trend will continue in the future Projected Population Growth, , Canada Projected Population Growth, , Canada % % 29 Total Under Total Under Source: Statistics Canada, Medium Population Projections 16

17 Declines at some age groups Percent Population Change , Canada % Total Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 17

18 the suburbs are no longer only for young families; seniors are a growing segment in this market Growth of Population 65+ City Suburbs Population Aged 65+, 2016 City Suburbs 31.1 % % Montreal GTA Vancouver Montreal GTA Vancouver GTA = Greater Toronto Area Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 18

19 Older population had high growth and high increase in spending power Growth in Population Distribution of After Tax Income, 2015 Growth in After Tax Income, Age % Age % % All ages Age groups Age % % 9.4 All ages Age groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 19

20 2. it s official: we re old Marketing implications Rapid growth in senior population is expected to continue for the next decade, before it starts to level off Expect this generation of seniors to tend to stay in their suburban neighbourhoods as they age As the baby bust generation ages, there will be a senior bust, but it will be much less pronounced 20

21 Demographic estimates and projections 21

22 3. The household has many versions 22

23 WHAT IS THE MOST COMMON HOUSEHOLD TYPE IN CANADA? PARENTS W/KIDS, EMPTY NESTS, SINGLES, LONE-PARENT FAMILIES 23

24 A diversity of households Types of Households, 2016 Change in Number of Households Total 5.6 % Non-family 2 or more persons 4.1% Other 3.6% Multigenerational household 2.9% One-person 28.2% Loneparent 8.9% Couple without children 25.8% Couple with children 26.5% Couple without children Couple with children Lone-parent Multigenerational Other census family Non-family 2+ persons One-person Total Households: 14,072,080 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 24

25 Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census

26 Older men and women have very different living arrangements Living Arrangements of Older Adults Aged 65 and Over, Canada, 2016 Females Couple in Private household With Others Alone % % In Collective and Age Groups Over Males and Age Groups Over Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 26

27 3. The household has many versions Marketing implications The nuclear family is the exception Household size is drifting downward, so population in an area will slowly fall unless additional households are formed More people will be living alone, combined with an aging population means more women living alone 27

28 4. Cultural Diversity

29 Immigrants at highest level since 1931 Number and Proportion of Foreign-born Population in Canada, 1871 to 2036 Number Percentage 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000, % 25% 20% 15% 4,000,000 10% 2,000,000 5% % Source: Statistics Canada 7,540,830 Total immigrants, ,000 Non-permanent residents, 2016

30 Immigrant numbers will continue to increase Number and Proportion of Foreign-born Population in Canada, 1871 to ,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000, Number Percentage Actual Projected % 25% 20% 15% 4,000,000 10% 2,000,000 5% % Source: Statistics Canada Diversity projections 30 7,540,830 Total immigrants, ,000 Non-permanent residents, 2016

31 Immigrants spreading out across the country Immigrants by Province, Canada Ontario Quebec Alberta British Columbia Manitoba Saskatchewan Nova Scotia New Brunswick Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Immigrants , , , ,600 63,200 47,900 11,800 9,300 3,700 3,400 Percent Change from ,212,080 Total Canada Percent change: 14.8% Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

32 Increased immigration from Syria, Iran and Philippines Number of Immigrants , Top Countries of Birth Philippines India China Iran Pakistan Syria United States of America France United Kingdom Nigeria 54,700 51,700 30,000 40,000 26,500 29,300 19, , ,300 count 191,500 Percentage Change in Number of Immigrants, to Syria Iran Philippines Nigeria France Pakistan India China United States of America United Kingdom % Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 32

33 degree of acculturation as reflected in time in Canada and language use is important in any ethnic marketing venture Language Use other than English or French, Immigrants, Canada, 2016 Mother tongue-other* Language spoken most often at home-other Speaks only "Other" language at home Before * Other refers to other than English or French Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

34 Visible minority population will continue to increase Percent of the Population Visible Minority, CMAs, 2016, Canada Toronto Vancouver Calgary Abbotsford - Mission Edmonton Winnipeg Montréal Canada % 2016 Ottawa - Gatineau Projected 2036 % Windsor K - C - W Hamilton Regina Oshawa Saskatoon Guelph London % K-C-W is Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

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36 Emerging young second generation with increasingly mixed identities Percent of Population Visible Minority by Generation, 2016, Canada First generation 2+ generations Total on top % All ages Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

37 4. Cultural Diversity 2.0 Marketing implications Visible minorities will be the majority in Toronto and Vancouver Diversity will be much more pronounced everywhere in the country For the next generation, diversity is the norm and they have mixed identities and influences Multicultural marketing will change and maybe not exist only as selective campaigns to reach a specific ethnicity 37

38 Environics Analytics authoritative segmentation system Acculturation categories for Chinese and South Asians Demographic estimates and projections 38

39 5. The future is female 39

40 Large gender gap for population under age 45 Percentage Population with Post Secondary Credentials, 2016 % Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Age Groups Total on top University at bachelor level or above College, CEGEP or university below bachelors Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 40

41 Major gains in female representation in many professions Female Representation in Selected Professions, 2016, Canada Veterinarians General practitioners and family physicians Optometrists Biologists and related scientists Lawyers and Quebec notaries Specialist physicians Photographers Dentists Architects Chiropractors Chemical engineers Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 41 Ages % Ages at end 81.3 %

42 Higher income increases for women Change in Median Total Income , Age 25-34, Canada Male Female % Source: Various Censuses Canada NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Canada NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Median Income 2015, Canada Males $41,154 Females $32,942

43 In nearly a third of couples, women now have higher incomes Percent of Couples Where a Female is the Higher Total Income Recipient, 2015, Canada % All ages Age of older person Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 43

44 5. The future is female Marketing implications Better education with more earning power and fewer women living with men will mean more decisions will be made by women Understand decision-making by men vs. women if your category is not currently catering to women Completely new opportunities may exist in growing numbers of female-only households 44

45 The five ways the census affects marketers 1. Growth or decline? It depends where you are 2. It s official: we re old 3. The household has many versions 4. Cultural Diversity The future is female 45

46 Demographic estimates and projections Financial wealth estimates Acculturation categories for Chinese and South Asians Environics Analytics authoritative segmentation system Enhanced census data 46

47 Questions?