Montreal Real Estate Forum. Economic Outlooks for March 31, Cooperating in building the future
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1 Montreal Real Estate Forum March 31, 2015 Economic Outlooks for 2015 François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in building the future
2 Outline The global economy and oil The North American economy Interest rates and the Canadian dollar The Quebec economy Appendix : Risks to watch out for 2
3 The Global Economy and Oil 3
4 The global economy Better economic growth in the Euro zone and in Japan at the end of 2014 In % Real GDP growth U.K. France Euro zone Germany Italy Japan 3rd quarter th quarter 2014 Sources: Office for National Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Cabinet Office and Desjardins, Economic Studies 4
5 Euro zone An upturn in bank credit is seen generally throughout the zone % annual change Outstanding credit in the private sector Euro zone France Germany Netherlands Italy Spain Greece Sources: European Central Bank and Desjardins, Economic Studies 5
6 Emerging countries Many concerns, but no disaster % annual change 13 China s real GDP An arduous economic shift in China Difficulties in Brazil Hope in India A tense situation in Eastern Europe (Russia-Ukraine) Towards 6.5%? Sources: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and Desjardins, Economic Studies 6
7 Oil The spectacular plunge in oil prices amplifies disinflation % annual change % annual change Inflation G20 Price of oil Price of WTI* oil (left) * West Texas Intermediate Sources: Datastream, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and Desjardins, Economic Studies Inflation - G20 countries (right) 7
8 Oil Prices have fallen far enough to curb investment 45 Sources: Bank of Canada and Energy Aspects 8
9 Oil The industry is starting to slow down its activities Number Drills in use by the oil industry in the United States % Sources: Baker Hugues and Desjardins, Economic Studies 9
10 Oil U.S. oil inventories are exploding In millions of barrels 500 Commercial inventories of crude in the United States Sources: Energy Information Administration and Desjardins, Economic Studies 10
11 Oil Non-economic factors Change of attitude on the part of Saudi Arabia Negotiations on Iran s nuclear program Chaos in Libya and in Yemen Conflict in Iraq Tensions between Russia and the West 11
12 Oil Two scenarios considered US$/barrel Price of WTI* oil $ $78 $ $ Base scenario Scenario of prolonged low prices * West Texas Intermediate. Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies 12
13 The global economy Economic growth by region Real GDP in 2014, 2015 and 2016 Canada 2.5%, 2.0% and 2.2% Quebec 1.4%, 1.7% and 1.5% United Kingdom 2.6%, 2.6% and 2.5% Eastern Europe 1.6%, -0.6% and 1.7% United States 2.4%, 3.1% and 3.0% Euro Zone 0.9%, 1.3% and 1.6% China 7.4%, 7.0% and 6.9% Japan -0.1%, 0.9% and 1.3% Latin America 1.1%, 1.6% and 2.6% India 7.2%, 7.4% and 7.0% Southern Asia 4.3%, 4.9% and 5.1% World: 3.4%, 3.5% and 3.7% (5.5% in 2007) Industrialized economies: 1.7%, 2.2% and 2.3% (2.5% in 2007) Emerging economies: 4.6%, 4.3% and 4.6% (8.2% in 2007) Sources: Consensus Forecasts and Desjardins, Economic Studies 13
14 U.S. Economy 14
15 United States Reasons for optimism Painful, but effective consolidation A return to faster growth Finally, real improvement in the job market The oil price slump: additional support Entrepreneurs have also regained confidence: the return of the "animal spirit"? The Fed s key interest rate hikes will not start until the end of the year. 15
16 United States Consumer confidence is greatly improving Index 110 University of Michigan Confidence Index Capture of Saddam Hussein 100 Highest level since January Weather Effects Sources: University of Michigan and Desjardins, Economic Studies 16
17 United States Still a few clouds in the sky Appreciation of the U.S. dollar Weak growth in wages and job quality Expected decline in oil investments A few disappointing data in businesses and housing A federal government paralyzed by partisan politics 17
18 United States The weather was colder than normal in the East and the Midwest in February Temperature deviations in February 2015 compared with the average of Record cold Far below average Below average Near average Above average Far above average Record heat Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 18
19 The Canadian Economy 19
20 Canada Main issues "The oil price slump will have negative repercussions on Canadian economic growth and on business investment, especially in the first half of 2015." The possibility of recession is quite high in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador. Non-energy exports will benefit from the depreciation of the Canadian dollar and from the higher U.S. demand. Consumption and non-commodity business investment will contribute to growth. 20
21 Canada Investment outlooks have deteriorated especially in the energy sector In % Balance of opinions Investments in machinery and equipment in the next 12 months The oil and gas sector, which represents nearly 6% of GDP, accounts for around 30% of total business investment Source: Bank of Canada 21
22 Canada International trade has seen great improvement since the beginning of 2014 In $M 38,000 Merchandise exports In $M 13,000 36,000 34,000 Non-energy (left) 12,000 11,000 32,000 10,000 30,000 9,000 28,000 26,000 Energy (right) 8,000 7,000 24, ,000 Sources: Statistics Canada and Desjardins, Economic Studies 22
23 Canada Home sales slow in Alberta In units Sales of existing properties 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Vancouver Calgary Toronto Montreal Sources: Canadian Real Estate Association and Desjardins, Economic Studies 23
24 Canada The effects of the oil price slump will be uneven from one province to another % annual change Real GDP growth Canada B.C. Alb. Sask. Man. Ont. Qc Atlantic Sources: Statistics Canada and Desjardins, Economic Studies 24
25 Financial Markets 25
26 Financials Heading for growing divergence in monetary policies In % 6 5 Main key interest rates of the central banks Desjardins forecasts United States Canada Euro zone Japan Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies 26
27 Financials Economic growth is no longer reflected in bond yield trends % annual change United States In % 7 8 Desjardins forecasts Nominal GDP Bond yields American nominal GDP (left) Federal ten-year bonds (right) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies 27
28 Financials The global savings rate is high and could keep climbing, especially in emerging countries As % of global GDP 27 Global savings rate IMF* forecasts * International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Reports, October 2014 Sources: International Monetary Fund and Desjardins, Economic Studies 28
29 Financials Global interest rates are at historic lows, few impacts are expected on mortgage rates In % Interest rate trends over a span of 115 years U.S. 10-year yield Average U.S. 10-year yield CAN 10-year yield Average CAN 10-year yield Desjardins forecasts Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies 29
30 Financials The majority of currencies will remain weak against the U.S. dollar In US$ In US$ Canadian $ Desjardins forecasts Euro Canadian dollar (left) Euro (right) Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies 30
31 The Quebec Economy 31
32 Quebec The greatest increase in international exports since the end of the 1990s % annual change 15 International exports in real terms Sources: Institut de la statistique du Québec and Desjardins, Economic Studies 32
33 Quebec Business investment continues to falter In 2007 $M 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Non-residential buildings Construction strike Industrial Commercial In 2007 $M Commercial (left) Industrial (right) Sources: Statistics Canada and Desjardins, Economic Studies 33
34 Index 160 Quebec Consumer confidence is heading back up but is still below the historical average Historical average Effect of lower gasoline prices Sources: Conference Board of Canada and Desjardins, Economic Studies 34
35 Quebec Job creation is finally accelerating! Dec = Canada Ontario British Columbia Quebec Alberta Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb Sources: Statistics Canada and Desjardins, Economic Studies 35
36 Quebec Retail sales have been disappointing in the past few years % annual change 8 Retail sales in real terms Average : 2.5% Forecasts for 2015 and Recession 1% QST hike in 2011 and Sources: Statistics Canada and Desjardins, Economic Studies 36
37 Quebec The household debt rate reaches a peak In % 180 Credit* in relation to personal disposable income Ontario 150 Canada Quebec * Total outstanding consumer credit and residential mortgage credit Sources: Statistics Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Bank of Canada, Institut de la statistique du Québec and Desjardins, Economic Studies 37
38 Quebec The burden of principal and interest payments has not increased for households In % 24 Monthly payments in relation to gross income* Average from 2004 to 2014: 16.0% * Corresponds to the debt service ratio (average DSR) Sources: Ipsos Reid and Desjardins, Economic Studies 38
39 Quebec Home resale prices have stabilized in the past two years In thousands of $ Prices of properties % annual change Level Change Change (right) Level (left) Sources: Canadian Real Estate Association and Desjardins, Economic Studies 39
40 Québec Le marché des copropriétés existantes est nettement excédentaire Quebec The condo resale market is in a surplus position everywhere Number Ratio of sellers to buyers Quebec City CMA Montreal CMA Gatineau CMA Surplus Balance Shortage Sources: Fédération des chambres immobilières du Québec through the Centris system and Desjardins, Economic Studies 40
41 Quebec Many headwinds are buffeting the economy Lower oil prices, a low Canadian dollar and improvement in the U.S. and Ontario economies will stimulate growth. Consumer confidence is low, job creation has been disappointing in 2014 and retail sales in real terms are limp. Even though exports are accelerating, business investment is taking time to pick up steam. The residential real estate market is stabilizing in Quebec and the soft landing appears to have been achieved. The consolidation of Quebec s public finances will make it possible to balance the budget in , but the government s contribution to the economy will be reduced in many respects. Source: Desjardins, Economic Studies 41
42 Appendix : Risks 42
43 Risk factors to watch out for Consequences of the major transfer of wealth stemming from the collapse of oil prices: Increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe Decline in savings in the emerging countries Rebalancing of the Canadian economy, impact on the financial system New economic disappointments in the Euro zone and in Japan More difficult negotiations with Greece from now to mid-2015 European banking sector Consequences of the start of monetary tightening in the United States: Additional risk for emerging countries (spring 2013) Faster-than-expected hikes in interest rates could be detrimental to the stock markets The consolidation of public finances in Quebec will put a drain on the economy and could affect the morale of households and businesses. 43
44 Thank you very much! Our web site: Our 44
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