Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu
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1 Texas Uncertain Economy in a World of Uncertain Oil Prices Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu
2 National Economic Recovery still Going 2
3 U.S. Outlook Expected GDP growth still modest: %; personal consumption 2.5% Consumer spending rising Inflation not worrisome: % - 2.0%, especially with lower gas prices Industrial production data generally positive Housing improving, adding to overall national economy; residential construction stable at million units Jobs expanding; unemployment rate probably down under 5.5% level or better 3 Energy sector & oil prices major issue for the year
4 Percent Change in Real GDP Since % 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% 4.4% 8.7% -0.5% -0.9% 7.7% 3.8% 4.6% Average 3.4% rate of growth per year % 7.2% 2.0%2.0% -0.9% 7.2% 2.5% 2.3% 6.4% 6.5% 6.1% 5.8% 4.4% 2.5% 4.8% 3.4% 3.1% 0.2% 5.3% 5.8% -0.2% -0.6% 5.6% 5.4% 4.6% 3.1% -0.3% 2.5% 4.5% 4.1% -1.9% 7.2% 4.1% 3.5% 3.6% 3.2% 1.9% 4.8% 4.5% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.7% 3.4% -0.2% 2.9% 2.5% 1.0% 1.8% 2.8% 3.8% 3.3% 2.7% 1.8% -0.3% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.2% -2.8% 1.6% Source: BEA
5 Thousands of Jobs U.S. Jobs Finally Recovered 150, , , % % %!! 126, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 90,000 Sources: BLS, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 5
6 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Unemployment Rate: Texas & U.S Texas US 2.0 Sources: BLS, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
7 Jan-71 Jan-72 Jan-73 Jan-74 Jan-75 Jan-76 Jan-77 Jan-78 Jan-79 Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Inflation Remains Relatively Low 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Source: BLS, Y/Y % change in index 7
8 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Consumer Confidence Index Recession Texas U.S. Source: The Conference Board (1985=100); Haver Analytics 8
9 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Millions Consumers Spending Money Again Real Retail and Food Services Sales $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
10 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Millions, SAAR Total Public and Private Construction Put in Place $1,200,000 $1,000,000 Public Private $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0 Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics
11 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Millions, SAAR Total Residential and Nonresidential Construction Put in Place $800,000 $700,000 Nonresdiential Residential $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics
12 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Billions Value of Nonresidential Construction in Texas $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 Source: McGraw Hill, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
13 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Billions Value of Residential and Nonresidential Construction in Texas $10 $9 Nonresidential Residential Total $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 Source: McGraw Hill, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
14 TEXAS CURRENT SITUATION The Future Just Ain t What It Used to Be! Yogi Berra
15 Texas Issues Price of oil fell more than 50% since July National economy, High Tech & Healthcare sectors still fairly strong: major influences Energy-dependent local economies (e.g. Houston, Midland) more vulnerable to significant downturns Statewide or local Slowdown vs. Decline? State budget expectations from Severance Tax affected by oil price decline Downstream offsets to Upstream cutbacks? 15
16 Oil Prices & Energy Prices may not have bottomed yet: Saudi Arabia continues to protect its market share Global oil production will increase before it decreases Global oil demand not rapidly increasing even with rapidly-falling prices. The rig count will drop: January US by 199 rigs to 1,683; Texas was down 99 rigs. Expect significant cut back in upstream capital spending on E&P, i.e., fewer wells drilled Increased geo-political-military volatility among oil producing nations that need (require) $95-$100+ oil price 16
17 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Texas Active Rig Count & Price of WTI 1, Texas rigs down 49% from Nov. 14 (904 to 465) Rigs (left) $160 $ $ $ $ WTI $/bl (right) $ $ $ $0 Source: Baker Hughes, Haver Analytics 17
18 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Texas Leading Economic Index Falling six months in a row Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 1987=100 18
19 Billions Real Texas GDP $1,400 1, ,338.6 $1,300 1,252.0 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $ , , , , , , ,167.2 $ $700 $600 $500 $ Source: BEA, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19
20 Texas Annual Jobs 12,000,000 11,000,000 10,000,000 9,000, % increase % increase % increase 8,610,900 9,737,500 9,428,900 9,510,900 9,412,700 9,494,100 9,366,900 9,157,300 8,940,500 10,880,300 10,607,300 10,569,700 10,393,300 10,305,600 10,338,700 10,063,600 11,550,200 11,206,900 8,000,000 7,000,000 7,485,500 7,272,900 7,098,900 7,177,400 7,755,600 8,260,200 8,027,300 6,000,000 5,000,000 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 20
21 Texas Industries and Government Sector Ranked by Employment Growth Rate From February 2014 to February 2015 Industry February 2015 February 2014 Change Percent Change Texas Total 11,698,400 11,336, , Construction 671, ,200 46, Leisure and Hopsitality 1,196,400 1,138,800 57, Transportation, Warehouse, Utilities 487, ,400 23,200 5 Mining and Logging 309, ,900 13, Professional and Business Serivices 1,554,000 1,500,400 53, Education and Health Services 1,556,400 1,504,100 52, Trade 1,856,300 1,794,400 61, Financial Activities 708, ,400 19, Other Services 411, ,500 8, Information 204, ,500 2, Government 1,861,400 1,843,100 18,300 1 Manufacturing 880, ,300 4, Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, SA; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
22 Texas 2015 Outlook Nonresidential/infrastructure construction heavy for the year Home sales flat to down 10% depending on impact of oil prices and potential offsets from downstream, healthcare, technology, first-time buyers and National economy; maybe even lower interest rates 1H15 Houston, Midland, Corpus vulnerable to downturns from oil prices Austin, San Antonio and DFW not as vulnerable to oil prices but still may slip some from very high 2014 levels Home prices up 4% to 8% - continued tight S&D Employment growth rate more like U.S. (from 3.1% to ~2.0% or less)
23 Texas Long-Term Outlook Energy sector long-term growth stimulant: world energy demand will grow; U.S. (Texas) will be major supplier Local Growth Issues becoming more pressing, causing greater strain on state and local infrastructure and resources Favorable business tax and regulatory environment will fuel more business start ups and relocations to Texas Rapid population expansion will fuel growth
24 Major Demographic Trends & Changing Housing Preferences Aging population Generational changes Lifestyle & life cycle: Gen Y vs. Boomers Increasing racial/ethnic diversity & cultural shifts Economic Shift: income & wealth gap Educated and less well educated Age Race & Ethnicity Urban Concentration - urban areas 24
25 Overall Growth and Change in State Population Texas D-FW Houston Austin San Antonio Population Population % of State Total Population % of State Total Population % of State Total Population % of State Total ,145,561 6,426, % 5,920, % 1,716, % 2,142, % ,541,978 7,920, % 7,413, % 2,306, % 2,635, % ,155,084 9,970, % 9,278, % 3,035, % 3,182, % ,955,896 12,728, % 11,519, % 3,960, % 3,735, % ,369,297 16,367, % 14,221, % 5,176, % 4,013, % Number Increase 29,223,736 9,941, % 8,300, % 3,460, % 2,151, % Percent Increase 116.2% 154.7% 140.2% 201.6% 100.4% 82% of total increase will go to the Major MSAs Sources: U. S. Census; Texas State Demographer 2014 Projections ( Scenario) 25
26 Percent Change from 2010 to 2050 by Age Groups in the Texas Population 300% 250% 259.0% 200% 150% 100% 119.5% 89.4% 101.8% 111.7% 110.5% 50% 0% ALL < Sources: Texas State Demographer s Office 2012 Projections 1.0 Scenario; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 26
27 Texas First-Time Home Buyer Percent of All Buyers 60% 50% Long-term average 40% 47% 50% 40% 30% 42% 40% 40% 40% 36% 39% 41% 37% 39% 38% 33% 29% 20% 10% 0% Source: NAR Home Buyers and Sellers Survey; 2014 Texas Home Buyers and Sellers Survey
28 Total <34 Years Years Years Years 68 > Years First-Time Home Buyers by Age Group (Percent of All Buyers) 80% 70% 2014 Texas first-time buyer was 32 60% 50% 40% 30% 76% 20% 10% 38% 35% 0% 16% 9% 2% Source: 2014 NAR Home Buyers and Sellers Survey
29 <34 Years Years Years Years 68 > Years Age of All Home Buyers (Percent Distribution and Median Age in Group) 35% 30% Texas buyer was 45 25% 20% 15% 31% 30% % 5% 0% 16% 14% 72 9% Source: 2014 NAR Home Buyers and Sellers Survey
30 Biggest Obstacles to Homeownership All adults year-olds only Saving enough for a down payment 55% 58% Not having a stable job 36% 43% Having a poor credit history 35% 33% Qualifying for a mortgage 32% 29% Unable to pay off existing debt 26% 30% Rising home prices 22% 23% Rising mortgage rates 15% 18% Limited inventory 5% 5% Among renters who wish to buy a home right now. Respondents could choose multiple options. Survey conducted November Trulia Trends, December 2013.
31 Many renters say they tend to live payday to payday Source: FHLMC, Perceptions of Renting and Homeownership, Multifamily Research Perspectives, December 8, 2014
32 In the next three years, do you expect to continue renting or purchase home? Source: FHLMC, Perceptions of Renting and Homeownership, Multifamily Research Perspectives, December 8, 2014
33 Gen Y Housing Outlook Gen Y Emerging Adults Plugged in Social Educated Outspoken More liberal Multicultural High performance High expectations Marry later buy later Fewer children, later Gen Y Housing Seen the housing collapse Currently 51% rent 80+% eventually want to buy First-time buyers mostly with financial constraints to buying Jobs and student debt = less savings for down payment First-time buyers <30% vs. historic 40% Gen Rent Sources: M. Leanne Lachman and Deborah L. Brett, Generation Y: America's New Housing Wave, Urban Land, February 2011, FNMA National Housing Survey; Pew Research Group; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 33
34 The Current Housing Market Oil prices, employment and home prices Recent price/cost increases and Affordability Tight/Difficult mortgage credit Interest rates Shifting demographics: families, age, ethnic Gen Y demand Difficulty of first-time buyers to enter the market Attitude toward Homeownership Institutional investors All-cash sales
35 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Interest Rate Mortgage and 10-Year Treasury Rates are DOWN YR Treasury 30-YR Mortgages Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FHLMC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
36 (000s SAAR) 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, , New SF Home Starts average per year (1.06 million) 1,309 1,151 1, ,162 1,451 1,433 1, ,067 1,084 1,072 1,179 1,146 1,081 1, ,030 1,126 1,198 1,076 1,161 1,134 1,359 1,271 1,303 1,273 1,231 1,499 1,716 1,610 1,465 1, ,100* 803* 200 *NAHB projections Feb 2015 Source: US Census Bureau; NAHB; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
37 Jan-00 Jul-00 New and Existing SF Home Sales U.S. Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Existing Home Sales 000s 8,000 New Home Sales 000s 1,600 7,000 1,400 6,000 5,000 Existing SF Home Sales (left axis) 1,200 1,000 4, , ,000 1,000 New Home Sales (right axis) Sources: US Census Bureau, NAR, SAAR 37
38 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 HMI Housing Starts, thousands NAHB HMI & SF Starts Housing Market Index Single-Family Starts 2,000 1, , , , , Source: NAHB, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 38
39 Annual Texas Home Sales 310, , ,000 Sales Avg Price Md Price 266, , , , ,790 $310,000 $290,000 $270, , , , ,000 Sales 2013 up 16% 2014 up 3% 196, , , , , , , , , , ,060 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190, , , , ,000 90,000 70, , ,04799, , , , , , ,638 $170,000 $150,000 $130,000 $110,000 $90,000 $70,000 50,000 $50,000 Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 39
40 Texas Monthly Home Sales & WTI Price/bl January 1986 to Present 34,000 32,000 30,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4, $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 WTI Spot Price FOB Cushing, OK Source: EIA; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
41 p Texas SF Building Permits 180, , , up 10%; slightly below average (104,800) 151, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 67,870 66, ,252 84,565 78,714 67,964 59,143 59,543 43,975 46,209 36,658 35,908 38,233 83,132 82,228 70,452 69,964 70, , , ,782 99, , ,366 81,107 81,926 68,170 68,230 67, ,050 93,478 20,000 0 Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M 41
42 Texas SF Permits & WTI Price/bbl Monthly January 1991 to Current 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 Avg. Monthly WTI Spot Price FOB Cushing, Ok Source: U.S. Census; EIA; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
43 Texas Median Home Price $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50, % % 78,200 80,00081,600 75,200 68,50068,100 71, ,900 96,200 90,600 86, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,400 Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 43
44 Texas Median Price & WTI Price/bbl Monthly January 1990 to Current $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 $130,000 $110,000 $90,000 Correlation coefficient of 0.86 $70,000 $50,000 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 Source: Avg. Monthly WTI Spot Price FOB Cushing, OK; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
45 Home Sales by Price Range % <$160, % < $160, Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
46 Texas MF Building Permits 180, , , , , , % 100,000 95,086 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,057 51,592 64,247 33,857 13,879 5,251 3,8508,273 9,304 8,291 3,745 51,576 40,245 30,165 31,281 32,521 40,715 28,381 33,958 35,791 37,537 33,036 47,271 38,671 53,196 46,918 15,837 19,741 30,729 63,000 54,145 53,615 Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M 46
47 AFFORDABILITY How much down? How much per month?
48 US and Texas Median Home Price $250,000 $225,000 $200,000 Texas remains a housing bargain, but not by as much. The gap between the US and Texas median price widened to 38%, but has narrowed to 11% $175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100,000 $75,000 $50,000 Source: NAR; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
49 e U.S. Median HH Income & Median Home Price Indexed to Median Home Price Nominal HH Income Real HH Income Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
50 Median Home Price as a Multiple of Median Household Income e US Existing Homes ( avg. = 3.36) US New Homes ( avg. = 3.82) Texas MLS Homes ( avg. = 2.88) Source: US Census Bureau, NAR, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
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