The Future of the World s International Education

Transcription

1 The Future of the World s International Education long-term driving forces or trends that influence almost everything at all levels of societal development. They have great importance now, and we are relatively sure they will also have great importance in the future. Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies Australian International Education Conference

2 Megatrends 1. Demographic shifts 2. Economic dynamics 2

3 3. Changes to political conditions Immigration policy New government New legislation Reform measures Inside India December Extensive quant and qual data collection students and employers - Destination attractiveness factors - Pull and push factors - Definition of return on investment - Future of employment prospects - Internships - The importance of international education for: their future, the future of the Indian economy 3

4 4. Growth in education provision Hong Kong October Impact of Hong Kong education reforms - HKDSE - Four year undergraduate study - Holistic analysis across all stakeholder levels - Presentation to the EDB - Opportunities for international engagement TNE, skills 4

5 Qualification taken intention post study the innovations are not independent, but fit together into a new and disruptive form of edu First choice of additional education - level the innovations are not independent, but fit together into a new and disruptive form of edu 5

6 5. Digital technology the innovations are not independent, but fit together into a new and disruptive form of edu Innovating Pedagogy 2012 The Open University 1. e-books 2. Publisher led short courses 3. Assessment for learning the 4. innovations Badges to are accredit not independent, learning but fit together into a new and disruptive form of edu 5. MOOC s 6. Rebirth of academic publishing 7. Seamless learning 8. Learning analytics 9. Personal inquiry learning 10.Rhizomatic learning the innovations are not independent, but fit together into a new and disruptive form of education that transcends boundaries 6

7 Preliminary findings the impact of Mass Open Online Courses in East Asia 100% Are you familiar with the free online courses being offered by universities such as Harvard, MIT and University of California, Berkeley? 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Professionals Students I don't know No Yes 100% Would you ever consider taking such a free online course? 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Professionals Students I don't know No Yes 7

8 100% Would you only pursue a free online course if you gained a qualification for that course? 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Employed Students I don't know No Yes 6. Global workforce demands/ skills shortage/ talent mismatch 8

9 Hays Global Skills Index 1. Education flexibility 2. Labour market participation 3. Labour market flexibility 4. Talent mismatch 5. Overall wage pressure 6. Wage pressure in high skilled industries 7. Wage pressure in high skilled occupations 0 = intense competition for key vacancies 5 = general balance, easy to retain and replace 10 = sever difficulty finding right skills 9

10 Skills development in South Asia October Cultural impact 10

11 - Cultural relations, soft power - Historical ties - Synergies in belief systems - Mainstream culture - Regionalisation Risk analysis and scenario planning 1. Demographic shifts 2. Economic dynamics 3. Changes to political conditions 4. Growth in education provision 5. Digital technology 6. Global workforce demands/ skills shortage/ talent mismatch 7. Cultural impact 11

12 The future of the world s international education depends on the intersection of these 7 megatrends the study of which will allow institutions to future-proof your strategy The future of the world s mobile students to

13 Higher education drivers & megatrends Demographics Global workforce demands Expanded provision International education mobility & growth Economics Technology Policy Culture Global population projections 13

14 /10/2013 Global population projections: Age 18-22, 000s Global population projections UN 2010 revision vs revision population - Latest projections population - Original projections 0 14

15 Gross tertiary enrolment ratio 11/10/2013 Global population projections Top ten fastest growing populations (000s) Population Population Change Nigeria 15,282 21,630 6,349 India 115, ,773 4,872 Ethiopia 8,462 11,330 2,868 Indonesia 19,554 22,408 2,854 Kenya 4,200 5,752 1,552 Philippines 9,358 10,807 1,449 Iraq 3,076 4,272 1,196 Pakistan 18,840 19, Angola 1,865 2, Nepal 2,970 3, Top ten fastest declining populations (000s) China 119,970 79,643-40,327 Russia 10,436 7,457-2,979 Iran 7,871 5,408-2,463 Vietnam 8,743 6,742-2,000 Ukraine 3,202 2,023-1,178 South Korea 3,293 2, Germany 4,581 3, Japan 6,364 5, Poland 2,673 1, Thailand 4,818 4, Correlation between GDP per capita (PPP) and enrolments PPP GDP per capita and tertiary enrolment ratio (2009) 120% 100% y = ln(x) R² = South Korea 80% Ukraine Greece US 60% Singapore 40% UAE Mexico & Malaysia 20% Trinidad & Tobago Botswana 0% $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 Nominal PPP US$ GDP per capita Source: Haver Analytics, Oxford Economics, UNESCO 15

16 Annual average growth rate /10/2013 Annual average growth in world GDP to % 4.0% Forecast 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Long-run average Economic growth, % change 16

17 GDP growth forecasts ( ) GDP per Capita GDP per Capita Average annual GDP growth Real, US$ (PPP) Real, US$ (PPP) Local currency Key advanced economies Australia 38,280 45, % Canada 37,203 45, % Japan 31,673 37, % UK 32,072 39, % US 43,290 54, % Key emerging/developing economies Brazil 10,286 14, % China 7,868 17, % India 3,328 6, % Indonesia 4,441 7, % Nigeria 2,298 3, % Russia 15,312 23, % Saudi Arabia 27,398 34, % Global inbound mobile higher education students: Destination market,

18 Changes in outbound students, Global outbound mobile higher education students: Origin market,

19 International mobility opportunities,