3 rd NORDIC COUNTRIES INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION STRATEGIC OUTLOOK SESSION

Transcription

1 3 rd NORDIC COUNTRIES INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION STRATEGIC OUTLOOK SESSION EAIE 2012 Conference The Illuminate Consulting Group 13 September

2 DISCLAIMER The presentation was delivered by ICG at the 2012 EAIE conference in Dublin on 13 September The presentation shall be considered incomplete without oral clarification. The opinions expressed in this presentation are those of the authors alone. ICG makes no warranty regarding any claim or data presented in this presentation, and does not take any responsibility for any third party acting upon information contained in this presentation. 2

3 AGENDA Housekeeping Welcome by the Chair Conditions: The Nordic Region s Socio-Economic Landscape Trends: International Education Trends in the Nordic Region Positioning: The Nordic Region s Competitive Position Discussion 3

4 HOUSEKEEPING The session will be introduced and thematically framed by Bjørn Einar Aas (University of Bergen and former EAIE President). The ICG presentation section is geared for about 35 minutes. About 25 minutes are allocated for discussion. 4

5 THE PURPOSE OF THIS SESSION This is the third Nordic Strategic Outlook Session, following previous sessions at the 2011 EAIE and 2012 NAFSA conferences. The sessions were conceived by ICG as a reflection on research on and advisory work undertaken in the Nordic region. The purpose is to share information and analysis on international recruiting, policy, and competition trends. The approach of this session is to be fact-based but also to challenge the audience to consider the their respective international education landscape 5 to 10 years from now. 5

6 AGENDA Housekeeping Welcome by the Chair Conditions: The Nordic Region s Socio-Economic Landscape Trends: International Education Trends in the Nordic Region Positioning: The Nordic Region s Competitive Position Discussion 6

7 AGENDA Housekeeping Welcome by the Chair Conditions: The Nordic Region s Socio-Economic Landscape Trends: International Education Trends in the Nordic Region Positioning: The Nordic Region s Competitive Position Discussion 7

8 SOCIO-ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE IN THE NORDIC REGION Demographic Context 350,000,000 Total Population by Country ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 50,000,000 0 Denmark Sweden Norway Finland Germany USA Switzerland What is the role of population size in the education and innovation race? Source: UNPD. 8

9 SOCIO-ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE IN THE NORDIC REGION Demographic Context Secondary School Leavers 140,000 Population Age , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Denmark Sweden Norway Finland Switzerland In-coming domestic cohorts are going to decline in the next few years Source: UNPD. 9

10 SOCIO-ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE IN THE NORDIC REGION Economic Growth Trends GDP Per Capita in Current USD 120,000 GDP Per Capita - Current USD 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Denmark Sweden Norway Finland Germany USA Switzerland The near-term economic outlook for the Nordic countries is still strong Source: IMF. 10

11 SOCIO-ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE IN THE NORDIC REGION Economic Growth Trends Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Denmark Sweden Norway Finland Germany USA Switzerland Denmark & Norway are forecast to run lower unemployment rates than Sweden & Finland Sources: IMF. 11

12 SOCIO-ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE IN THE NORDIC REGION Currency and Global Economic Competitiveness Euro / Nordic Region Currencies /1/07 1/1/08 1/1/09 1/1/10 1/1/11 1/1/12 Danish Krone Swedish Krona Norwegian Kroner Swedish and Norwegian currencies have strengthened since 2009 Source: OANDA. 12

13 SOCIO-ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE IN THE NORDIC REGION Currency and Global Economic Competitiveness The Big Mac Index Big Mac Index - Big Mac Price in USD (January 2012) Switzerland Norway Sweden Denmark Australia Canada Euro Area USA New Zealand UK South Korea Pakistan Indonesia China Malaysia India It is not cheap to eat a Burger in the Nordic countries Source: The Economist. 13

14 INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION TRENDS IN THE NORDIC REGION Higher Education Population Group to Total Population 7% Ratio of Total Higher Education Enrollment to Total Population 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Denmark Sweden Norway Finland Germany USA Switzerland Nordic countries are education-intensive Sources: Stats Denmark, HSV, NSD, Statistics Finland, Destatis, NCES, BFS. 14

15 INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION TRENDS IN THE NORDIC REGION Higher Education Participation 100% Participation Indicator - Ratio of Total Higher Education Enrollment to Population Aged % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Denmark Sweden Norway Finland Germany USA Switzerland Education participation is hitting ceilings Sources: Stats Denmark, HSV, NSD, Statistics Finland, Destatis, NCES, BFS. 15

16 SOCIO-ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE IN THE NORDIC REGION Key Insights The small population bases of countries in the Nordic Region will pose challenges in terms of supplying their respective economies with enough highly skilled workers. All Nordic countries will face continued high innovation pressures to sustain their high performance but also high cost economies. Recruiting talented international students with an intermediate work or long-term migration option will shift from a possibility to an outright need. Given global competition dynamics, existing brand and destination perceptions, cultural change needs, policy-making cycles, and institutional capability requirements, any talent attraction approach will require years of lead time. 16

17 AGENDA Housekeeping Welcome by the Chair Conditions: The Nordic Region s Socio-Economic Landscape Trends: International Education Trends in the Nordic Region Positioning: The Nordic Region s Competitive Position Discussion 17

18 INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION TRENDS IN THE NORDIC REGION International Student Enrollment in the Nordic Region (I) 50,000 International Higher Education Enrollment in the Nordic Region (Headcount) 45,000 Sweden 40,000 35,000 30,000 Norway 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Finland Denmark Strong international higher education enrollment growth (all modes) Notes: Data for Denmark are incomplete. Sources: IU, HSV, NSD, CIMO. 18

19 INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION TRENDS IN THE NORDIC REGION International Student Enrollment in the Nordic Region (III) 800, , ,000 International Higher Education Enrollment in the Nordic Region and Key Destination Countries (Headcount) USA UK 500,000 Germany 400, ,000 Australia 200,000 Canada 100, Nordic Region but the Nordic Region remains a relatively small destination Notes: Data for Denmark and germany are incomplete. Sources: IIE, HSV, NSD, CIMO, IU, HESA, AEI, CIC, HIS. 19

20 INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION TRENDS IN THE NORDIC REGION International Student Enrollment in Sweden by Source Country 4,000 International Higher Education Enrollment in Sweden by Top Ten Source Countries (Headcount) China 3,500 Germany 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Pakistan France Iran Finland India Spain Bangladesh USA Prior to tuition fees, strong gains by China, Pakistan, and Iran Source: HSV. 21

21 INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION TRENDS IN THE NORDIC REGION International Student Enrollment in Denmark by Source Country 1,600 1,400 International Higher Education Enrollment in Denmark by Top Ten Source Countries (Headcount) Norway Sweden China 1,200 Iceland 1,000 Germany 800 Poland Lithuania Nepal India Romania Lead countries are stalling, small sending countries are inching up Notes: Data refer to degree-seeking students only. Source: IU. 22

22 INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION TRENDS IN THE NORDIC REGION International Student Enrollment in Finland by Source Country 2,500 2,000 International Higher Education Enrollment in Finland by Top Ten Source Countries (Headcount) China Russia Germany 1,500 France Spain 1, Estonia Nigeria Nepal Italy Sweden Sustained growth except for Sweden Notes: Data for Spain and France refer to exchange students only. Sources: CIMO. 23

23 INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION TRENDS IN THE NORDIC REGION International Student Enrollment in Norway by Source Country 2,500 International Higher Education Enrollment in Norway by Top Ten Source Countries (Headcount) Germany 2,000 USA Russia 1,500 1, France Sweden Spain China UK Denmark Australia Sustained growth led by Germany and the USA Sources: NSD. 24

24 INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION TRENDS IN THE NORDIC REGION Key Insights The Nordic region is a niche player in international student recruiting which reflects the overall higher education enrollment footprint of Nordic countries. This niche has been fairly strong, however. Growth dynamics over the last decade were leading other destination countries/region. China has become a leading student source country. Germany always had a notable footprint. Neither fact is surprising. Intra-Nordic mobility is showing disparate trends and dynamics and 2012 data are bound to show sustained changes in enrollment patterns in Sweden (post tuition fee introduction). 25

25 AGENDA Housekeeping Welcome by the Chair Conditions: The Nordic Region s Socio-Economic Landscape Trends: International Education Trends in the Nordic Region Positioning: The Nordic Region s Competitive Position Discussion 26

26 Nordic Region Capability THE NORDIC REGION S COMPETITIVE POSITION Capability over Competitiveness Matrix Strength 2 1) Business Development 3 2) Social & Welfare Structure ) Academic Quality 4) Work / Immigration 5) Alumni Networks 6) Alliances, Groups 8 6 7) Cost 8) Regional Brand 9) Regional Policy-making 5 10) Economic Landscape 1 Weakness Low High Competitive Impact 27

27 THE OUTLOOK FOR DENMARK Unclear policy direction at the government level regarding international education regulations (e.g. exchange/fee-paying students). Lack of investment into branding (i.e. no more IU funding). Mix of flagship universities and entrepreneurial teaching-oriented institutions should serve Denmark well. Number of fee-paying students remains very small. The connection of recruiting-to-workforce remains underdeveloped. There is a need for a cohesive, comprehensive, talent-focused recruiting strategy. 28

28 THE OUTLOOK FOR FINLAND Unclear policy direction at the government level on strategic higher education planning. Lack of clarity around tuition fee policies. Research and innovation needs cannot be filled by domestic students. Nokia is not enough to support country-wide innovation what is next? Finnish institutions need to articulate a compelling story to attract more international students. Finland will face a number of watershed decisions (tuition fees, economic trajectory, immigration options) in the near future. 29

29 THE OUTLOOK FOR NORWAY Norwegian institutions remain well funded. The surge of international students is going to pose processing and capacity issues on some levels. Many Norwegian universities center their internationalization strategies on rather traditional parameters/behavior. A discernible lack of innovation and entrepreneurship at an institutional level can be detected. Norway needs to prepare shifting away from a resource extraction thinking now to avoid cultural capture issues. Norway should focus on pushing deep international talent pipeline ties in a time of plenty. 30

30 THE OUTLOOK FOR SWEDEN Regulatory changes (e.g. introduction of tuition fees for master s-level non-eu students) unsettled the higher education landscape. The Swedish university landscape is beginning to differentiate itself which is not always an easy process. The very necessary shift towards recruiting models which reflect the new tuition regime is taking place in differentiated and occasionally haphazard fashion. Sweden offers one of the more liberal work placement schemes; bringing industry more actively into institutional recruiting efforts should be quite beneficial. Swedish universities are facing a number of strategic challenges from recruiting modes to parntering options which are playing out right now. 31

31 AGENDA Housekeeping Welcome by the Chair Conditions: The Nordic Region s Socio-Economic Landscape Trends: International Education Trends in the Nordic Region Positioning: The Nordic Region s Competitive Position Discussion 32

32 CONTACT INFORMATION Dr. Daniel J. Guhr Managing Director Illuminate Consulting Group P.O. Box 262 San Carlos, CA USA Phone Fax Web 33

33 SOCIO-ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE IN THE NORDIC REGION Demographic Context Secondary Education Target Age Group 700,000 Population Aged , , , , , , Denmark Sweden Norway Finland Switzerland Sources: UNPD. 35

34 SOCIO-ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE IN THE NORDIC REGION Currency and Global Economic Competitiveness US Dollar / Nordic Region Currencies and Euro /1/07 1/1/08 1/1/09 1/1/10 1/1/11 1/1/12 Danish Krone Swedish Krona Norwegian Kroner Euro Sources: OANDA. 37

35 INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION TRENDS IN THE NORDIC REGION International Student Enrollment in the Nordic Region (II) 400 International Higher Education Enrollment in the Nordic Region (Indexed to 2001 Level) 350 Sweden Norway 200 Finland Denmark Notes: Data for Denmark are incomplete. Sources: IU, HSV, NSD, CIMO. 40

36 THE NORDIC REGION S COMPETITIVE POSITION Social structure +++ External focus / trade +++ Language capabilities ++ Innovation ++ Educational quality ++ Labor market dynamics + Migration policies + Strategic alignment? Institutional entrepreneurship missing 41

37 STRATEGIC AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS For Education Institutions For Policy Makers Educational quality is not enough to truly compete Strong value proposition and migration pathways are key assets Old recruitment models won t work anymore Institutional entrepreneurship is crucial to long-term survival Cross-country formalized cooperation is justified by location and size Government s role has (must) shifted from prime actor to facilitator If coordinated effort is unattainable, institutional entrepreneurship should be encouraged (not stifled) 42