The Herzliya Indices. National Security Balance The Civilian Quantitative Dimension. Herzliya Conference Prof. Rafi Melnick, IDC Herzliya
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1 The Herzliya Indices National Security Balance The Civilian Quantitative Dimension Herzliya Conference 2015 Prof. Rafi Melnick, IDC Herzliya
2 Development of the Economic Dimension in Israel
3 Multiple Indicators Approach National Security Unobservable Latent Variable Indicator 1 Observable Indicator 2 Observable... Indicator N Observable N indicators are measurable; they affect and are affected by national security, which is an unobservable latent variable. The presence of multiple indicators allows (under defined assumptions) one to quantify national security. A rise in each indicator means improvement in national security, in the corresponding dimension.
4 Components of the Economic Indicator (Relative Weight in Parenthesis) 1. GDP Per Capita, PPP (16%) 2. GDP, PPP (15%) 3. Unemployment (15%) 4. General Government Gross Financial Liabilities (half weight 11%) 5. R&D Investment - Percent of GDP (11%) 6. Current Account Balance (11%) 7. Inflation (11%) 8. Long Term interest rate (5%) 9. Fiscal Deficit (5%)
5 The Model Construction of a panel data set of 27 countries The model includes: Israel 26 OECD countries Data ranges from 1990 through 2013
6 Economic Data Resources Primary Sources OECD Statistics OECD Economic Outlook Israel s National Insurance institute - Research and Planning Administration Israel s Central Bureau of Statistics Secondary Sources IFS International Financial Statistics (IMF) IMF World Economic Outlook Bank of Israel and various central banks Other sources
7 Methodology A preliminary base is calibrated. Each variable is measured in percentage change or percentage difference in the case that its basic measurement is in percents An annual weighted average is calculated using the weights obtained from a panel of experts The indices are formed, over time, by cumulating annual weighted averages
8 The Herzliya Indices 2015 RESULTS
9 Turkey Poland Hungary Greece Israel Korea, Rep Portugal lreland Czech Rep Spain New Zealand Finland Belgium ltaly Australia Austria Sweden Denmark Canada Netherlands France UK Norway Switzerland Germany Japan USA Economic Base
10 Turkey Greece Hungary Poland Portugal Spain Czech Rep Finland ltaly Israel New Zealand lreland Belgium Austria Korea, Rep France Sweden Denmark Australia Canada UK Netherlands Switzerland Norway Germany Japan USA Economic Base
11 Development of the Economic Dimension Israel and the Developed Countries Israel G7 Euroland OECD
12 Italy Finland Austria France Japan Netherlands Belgium Denmark Norway Greece Sweden Israel Germany Canada Turkey United States Portugal Spain Switzerland Czech Republic Australia United Kingdom New Zealand Korea Poland Hungary Ireland Per Capita GDP Growth (percent)
13 Norway Korea Japan Switzerland Germany Austria New Zealand Israel Czech Republic Australia United States United Kingdom Denmark Netherlands Canada Hungary Sweden Belgium Finland Poland France Turkey Ireland Italy Portugal Spain Greece Unemployment Rate (percent)
14 Turkey Norway Australia Korea New Zealand Switzerland Sweden Czech Republic Poland Denmark Finland Israel Netherlands Germany Canada United Kingdom Hungary Austria United States France Ireland Belgium Spain Portugal Italy Greece Japan General Government Liabilities (percent of GDP)
15 Australia Korea New Zealand Czech Republic Ireland United Kingdom Norway Finland Poland Denmark Switzerland Sweden Netherlands United States Spain Hungary Germany Turkey Portugal Austria France Canada Israel Greece Italy Belgium Japan General Government Liabilities (percent of GDP)
16 Economic Dimension Gap Israel and the Developed Countries G7-Israel Euroland-Israel OECD-Israel
17 Economic Index USA New Zealand Japan Israel Germany Norway Switzerland Netherlands UK Canada Australia Denmark Sweden France ltaly Finland Czech Rep Spain Portugal Poland Hungary Greece Turkey Korea, Rep Austria Belgium lreland 64.79
18 The Herzliya Composite Economic Social Index
19 Components of the Economic-Social Indicator (Relative Weight in Parenthesis, Social indicators in yellow) 1. GDP Per Capita, PPP (11%) 2. GDP, PPP (10%) 3. Unemployment (10%) 4. Poverty Incidence (10%) 5. Inequality Gini (8%) 6. General Government Gross Financial Liabilities (8%) 7. R&D Investment - % of GDP (8%) 8. Current Account Balance (8%) 9. Long Term Unemployment (7%) 10. Employment Rate (7%) 11. Inflation (7%) 12. Long Term Interest Rate (3%) 13. Fiscal Deficit (3%)
20 Development of the Economic and Social Dimension in Israel
21 Poverty Incidence in Israel (Families, percent) After taxes and transfers Before taxes and transfers
22 Czech Republic Denmark Finland Norway Netherlands France Germany Austria United Kingdom Belgium Sweden Ireland New Zealand Switzerland Hungary Poland Canada Portugal Italy Australia Korea Spain Greece Japan United States Israel Turkey Poverty Incidence (Families, the latest available data point, percent)
23 Inequality in Israel (Families, Gini Coefficient) After taxes and transfers Before taxes and transfers
24 Norway Denmark Czech Finland Belgium Sweden Netherlands Austria Switzerland Hungary Germany Ireland Poland Korea France Canada Italy New Zealand Australia Greece Japan Portugal Spain United Israel United States Turkey Inequality (Families, the latest available data point, Gini coefficient)
25 Long Term Unemployment in Israel (percent)
26 Korea Norway New Zealand Israel Canada Australia Sweden Austria Japan Switzerland United States Denmark Finland Germany United Kingdom Netherlands Turkey Czech Republic Poland Hungary Belgium France Ireland Italy Portugal Spain Greece Long Term Unemployment (Families, the latest available data point, percent)
27 Employment Rate Israel (percent)
28 Greece Turkey Italy Spain Poland Ireland Hungary Belgium Portugal France Korea Israel United States Finland Czech Republic Austria Australia United Canada Japan Denmark Germany Netherlands New Zealand Sweden Norway Switzerland Employment Rate (The latest available data point, Percent) 0
29 Turkey Poland Hungary Greece Israel Korea, Rep Portugal lreland Czech Rep Spain New Zealand Finland Belgium ltaly Australia Austria Sweden Denmark Canada Netherlands France UK Norway Switzerland Germany Japan USA Economic Social Base
30 Turkey Hungary Greece Poland Portugal Czech Rep Spain Israel Finland New Zealand ltaly lreland Korea, Rep Belgium Sweden Austria France Denmark Australia Canada Netherlands UK Norway Switzerland Germany Japan USA Economic Social Base
31 Development of the Economic Social Dimension Israel and the Developed Countries Israel G7 Euroland OECD
32 Economic Social Dimension Gap Israel and the Developed Countries G7-Israel Euroland-Israel OECD-Israel
33 Economic Social Index USA ltaly Japan New Zealand Germany Switzerland Norway UK Netherlands Canada Australia Denmark France Austria Finland Israel Spain Czech Rep Portugal Poland Greece Hungary Turkey Sweden Belgium Korea, Rep lreland 63.98
34 Development of the Economic and the Economic Social Dimension a Comparison Israel and the Developed Countries Israel Eco Euroland Eco Israel Eco-Social Euroland Eco-Social
35 Economic and Economic Social Dimension Gap Israel and the Developed Countries GAP Euroland-ISR Eco GAP Euroland-ISR Eco-Social
36 Thank you
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