Lithuanian export: is it time to prepare for changes? Aleksandr Izgorodin Expert
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1 Lithuanian export: is it time to prepare for changes? Aleksandr Izgorodin Expert
2 Export is the main locomotive behind growth in LT economy Lithuania: change in real GDP and its components, % 78,2 71,8 71,1 51,3 46,2 39,5 32,6 23,0 28,2 32,4 27,9 5,9 4,6 3,7 10,8 16,2 0,0-6,2 Final consumption expenditure of households Final consumption expenditure of general Government Gross fixed capital formation Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Change in 2017, compared to 2008, % Change in 2017, compared to 2010 % Change in 2017, compared to 2012 % Gross domestic product 2
3 Share of export in GDP in LT is twice higher than EU average Source: Eurostat 3 Slovakia 86 Hungary 71 Netherlands 67 Czech Republic 67 Slovenia 66 Spain Ireland Lithuania Belgium Estonia Bulgaria Latvia Poland Germany Austria Denmark Euro area EU-28 Luxembourg Sweden Romania Portugal Finland Italy Malta Croatia France Greece United Kingdom Cyprus Export of goods: percentage of GDP, 2017, %
4 Lithuanian manufacturing is increasing its orientation towards export markets 20,0 Manufacturing: share in GDP, % Manufacturing: share of export sales in total sales of manufactred goods, % 19,0 18, ,0 16, ,0 14,0 13,0 12, EU-28 Lithuania Source: Eurostat; Lithuanian Statistics Department 4
5 Lithuanian export and manufacturing demonstrate very dynamic growth Export of goods of Lithuanian origin (excluding refined petrolium; tobacco; fertilizers), mln. EUR Change in export of goods of Lithuanian origin (excluding refined petrolium; tobacco; fertilizers), % ,2 16,1 13,8 12, ,9 5,4 4,2 3,2 6,2-17,
6 Lithuanian export and manufacturing demonstrate very dynamic growth Lithuania: production output in manufacturing (excl. refined petrolium products), mln. EUR (constant prices) ,1 Change in manufacturing output, % 61,8 34, Change in man. output in 2017, compared to 2012, % Change in man. output in 2017, compared to 2010, % Change in man. output in 2017, compared to 2007, % 6
7 EU remains Lithuania s largest export partner; share of CIS is dropping 7 80,3 82,0 80,6 11,0 11,5 11,1 11,4 12,1 12,6 6,3 5,4 6,8 7,6 8,0 8,4 7,9 3,0 2,6 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,4 0,7 0,9 0,8 1,1 2,3 1,2 1,5 1,4 1,9 3,1 3,4 5,5 5,3 5,8 6,6 9,9 79,0 74,4 78,5 78,8 10,9 Structure of export of goods of Lithuanian origin (excl. oil, tobacco and fertilizers), % EU CIS Russia Japan China United States Other
8 Export growth to EU compensated losses in CIS market Change in export of goods of Lithuanian origin (excl. oil, tobacco and fertilizers), % Export - total EU CIS Russia Japan China United States 2017 compared to 2007, mln. EUR 2017 compared to 2010, mln. EUR 2017 compared to 2013, mln. EUR 8
9 Lithuanian exporters are becoming more dependent on Scandinavia Structure of export of goods of Lithuanian origin (excl. oil, tobacco and fertilizers) to the EU region, % EU home market (LV+EE+PL) EU core countries Scandinavia Southern Europe EU - other
10 11, ,5 10 9,5 9 8,5 8 Uncertainties about Swedish economy are pressing on the Swedish Krona EUR against the Swedish kronor exchange rate Drop in Swedish Krona: Beneficial for LT contract manufacturing companies; Swedish exporters become more competitive in foreign markets. Bad for LT companies that export final goods to Sweden Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week 6 Source: NASDAQ OMX Stockholm AB 10
11 Lithuanian export: what next?
12 120,0 110,0 100,0 90,0 80,0 70,0 60,0 Euro zone economy: running out of steam? Economic sentiment indicator 20,0 Industrial confidence indicator 10,0 0,0-10,0-20,0-30,0-40,0-50,0 2007M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M11 Euro area Germany Euro area Germany Source: Eurostat 12
13 Going forward, LT companies must be cautious with new investments into manufacturing capacity Lithuania: industrial production capacity utilization level, % 2003M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M01 13
14 Will LT manufacturing manage to sustain its competitiveness? Manufacturing: gross value added per actual hour worked, EUR/hour Manufacturing: change in wages and productivity in 2017, compared to 2012, % 18, ,4 16,1 16,1 16,8 16, ,9 10,9 10, Wages and salaries Grss value added per hour worked 14
15 Rising labor costs stimulate LT manufacturing to invest into productivity Change in manufacturing output and empolyment in Lithuanian manufacturing in 2017, compared to 2008, % 46,6-14,4 Change in 2017, compared to 2008 Manufacturing: number of employees Manufacturing: production output 15
16 LT manufacturing is dominated by low-tech sectors 100% 90% Structure of production in Lithuanian manufacturing (excl. oil industry), % Structure of Lithuanian manufacturing (excl. oil industry), 2016, % 85,8 80% 70% 74,2 76,2 75,8 60% % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% High and medium-high technology Low and medium-low technology 25,8 Share in manufacturing output, % 14,2 Share in manufacturing employment, % High and medium-high technology 23,8 24,2 Share in manufacturing value added, % Share in manufacturing revenue % Low and medium-low technology 16
17 Robotization in the EU: challenge or opportunity to LT business? Manufacturing: change in production output and number of employees in 2017, compared to 2010, % 17 Source: Eurostat Ireland 15,8 62,7 Finland Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland Czech Republic Slovenia Denmark Germany Belgium EU-28 Euro area Netherlands United Kingdom France Sweden -12,3-5,5-0,8-2,6-10,9-7,3 1,2 14,6 5,8 7,2 18,2 17,2 26,5 3,4 23,4 15,6 3,9 15,4 12,3 3,5 10,7 0,6 10,3 6,9 1,5 4,7 2,1 49,8 44,9 43,0 39,0 34,7 Manufacturing: change in production output in 2017, compared to 2010, % Manufacturing: change in number of employees in 2017, compared to 2010, %
18 Robotization in the EU: challenge or opportunity to LT business? Share in employees in manufacturing sector in total employment, % 21,2 19,3 16,0 12,4 14,8 11,6 12,2 11,7 17,3 15,6 10,8 9,4 16,6 13,3 13,6 10,3 Belgium Denmark Germany Ireland Lithuania Netherlands Finland Sweden Source: Eurostat 18
19 Ačiū už dėmesį VšĮ Lietuvos inovacijų centras Mokslininkų g. 6A, LT Vilnius Tel.: Faks.: lic@lic.lt
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