The Mystery of Growing Foreign Exchange Reserve
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1 The Mystery of Growing Foreign Exchange Reserve January - March 2007 Total increase = $136 Billion Trade surplus 34% To be explained 54% Net FDI inflow 12% Source: PBoC
2 Renminbi Pressure Indicator Initial Public Offering Indicator Market-Adjusted Debt Indicator Banking Strength Indicator Adjusted Trade and Finance Indicator M&A Indicator Privatization Indicator Corporate Governance Indicator
3 Composition of China s Financial System 2006 Government bonds 13% Total = $6.8 trillion Corporate bonds 6% Stock market cap 17% Bank assets 64% Sources: IFS, PBoC, BIS, HK Stock Exchange, and MI staff estimates
4 Big Four Dominate China s Banking System 2006 Total = $4.4 trillion Postal deposit units 4% City commercial banks and city credit cooperatives 6% Policy banks 8% Rural credit cooperatives Joint-stock 10% commercial banks Non-depositary financial institutions 2% Foreign banks 2% State-owned commercial banks (Big Four) 52% Sources: PBoC
5 Chinese Banking Strength Indicator Highest = 10, Lowest = Sources: Xinhua Finance/Milken Institute
6 Banking Strength Indicator: The Big Four and Bank of Communications Q2 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Agricultural Bank of China n.a. Bank of China China Construction Bank Bank of Communications Sources: Xinhua Finance/Milken Institute
7 Growth in Trade: China vs. India World exports 50 China imports 55 China exports Index, 1980= Source: IMF Index, 1980=1 55 India's exports 50 India's imports 45 World exports
8 World Trade and GDP Shares: China vs. India 8% 7% China's share in world trade China's share in world GDP 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 0% Source: IMF % 1% 0% India's share in world trade India's share in world GDP
9 China s Current Account Surplus and U.S. s Current Account Deficit Current account balance, US$ billions China United States -800 Source: IMF
10 Countries That Export Capital 2006 Other countries 22.2% Venezuela 2.1% China 13.5% Algeria 2.3% Japan 12.2% U.A.E. 2.7% Source: IMF Singapore 2.8% Kuwait 3.6% Netherlands 3.7% Switzerland 37% Norway Saudi Arabia Russia 8.8% Germany 8.8%
11 Countries That Import Capital 2006 Other countries 15.2% Italy 1.9% Turkey 1.9% United States 63.7% France 2.8% Australia 3.0% United Kingdom 4.1% Spain 7.4% Source: IMF
12 China s Adjusted Trade and Finance Indicator Percent ec-01 un-02 ec-02 un-03 ec-03 un-04 ec-04 un-05 ec-05 un-06 Sources: Xinhua Finance/Milken Institute
13 Singapore France U.K. Germany S. Korea Mexico China Indonesia Australia Malaysia Japan U.S. Brazil Russia Adjusted Trade and Finance Indicator Selected Countries, 2005 Percent Sources: Xinhua Finance/Milken Institute 22.3
14 Accumulating Appreciation Pressure on Renminbi Index, 2000=100 RMB/USD 200 Renminbi Pressure Indicator Renminbi Exchange Rate Sources: International Financial Statistic, Xinhua Finance/Milken Institute
15 IPO Indicator IPO Indicator Value December 31, 1997 = January 1998 New regulations facilitate stock listing and trading December 2002 QFII allows foreign investment in A shares August 2004 IPOs suspended May 2006 IPO market reopens February February Xinhua FTSE All Share Index sees biggest decline in a day Source: Mergent, Bloomberg, Xinhua Finance/Milken Institute
16 Measuring China s Markets William Kazer
17 China s markets lack transparency.
18 Is this due to Culture? The political environment? Or the level of institutional development? Source: William Kazer, Xinhua Finance
19 Flight delayed due to reason Source: William Kazer, Xinhua Finance
20 Premier Wen Jiabao chaired the meeting and gave an important speech - CCTV Source: William Kazer, Xinhua Finance
21 China s central bank now has a monetary policy committee much like the FOMC But when does it meet? When can we expect a policy statement? Source: William Kazer, Xinhua Finance
22 The yuan is now described as having a managed float and being linked to a basket of currencies But what is in the basket? Source: William Kazer, Xinhua Finance
23 Shanghai-listed Zhejiang Hangxiao Steel Structure announces 34 billion yuan (US$4.4 billion) contract with Angola Stock soars until trading halted Regulator investigates Source: William Kazer, Xinhua Finance
24 In late 2005, China s statistics bureau revised its 2004 GDP data adding 16.8 pct to reflect service sector data it missed originally All GDP data from 1993 to 2004 revised Source: William Kazer, Xinhua Finance ND
25 Stock Market Outlook Bruce Richardson March 2007
26 China s Stock Markets Have Risen Sharply Index rises have been aided by G share reforms and by ongoing high liquidity. Source: Bruce Richardson, Xinhua Far East China Ratings
27 and Are Becoming Overvalued PEs approaching levels last seen before the correction in 2004 Source: Bruce Richardson, Xinhua Far East China Ratings
28 Shanghai A-50 Equally High Trailing PEs pushed in part by demand for investment grade A shares. Source: Bruce Richardson, Xinhua Far East China Ratings
29 As Are the Shanghai A-300 Higher PEs are exhibited by a number of mid-cap stocks as well. Source: Bruce Richardson, Xinhua Far East China Ratings
30 Share Prices of Shell Companies Price comparison of Nanjing Panda (RMB Yuan) A H 0 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 With China s penny stocks, H share prices generally reflect a base value while the A shares go for a ride. Source: Bruce Richardson, Xinhua Far East China Ratings
31 Share Prices of Investment Grade Companies Price Comparison of ZTE (RMB Yuan) H A 0 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Source: Bruce Richardson, Xinhua Far East China Ratings A & H share prices largely track each other.
32 Contact Information Asia Pacific Bruce Richardson Managing Director, Credit Ratings Tel: (86 21) Joseph Chan Managing Director, Business Development Tel: (852) Hong Kong Office Vicwood Plaza 199 Des Voeux Road Central Hong Kong Fax : (852) Shanghai, China Ms Yulia Wan CFA Director, Credit Ratings yulia.wan@xinhuafinance.com Tel: (86 21) Fax: (86 21) Ms Helen Cao Deputy General Manager, Shanghai Far East Credit Rating Co Ltd Shanghai Office Room Tower 1 Grand Gateway 1 Hongqiao Lu Shanghai , China Source: Bruce Richardson, Xinhua Far East China Ratings
33 Is There Penalty For Crime? Corporate Scandal and Management Turnover in China
34 Outcomes for CEOs After Scandal Group A include CEOs promoted to higher level positions in larger firms or their parent firms or higher level positions in government administrations. Group B includes those who keep their initial positions or move to similar position in the same firm or other firms affiliated to the same group. Group C includes those moved to same level positions in other comparable firms. Group D includes those moved to lower positions in the same firm. Group E includes those moved to lower positions in other firms. Group F includes those retire right after scandal or died soon after scandal. Group G include those go (flee) to other countries. Group H includes those subjected to severe administrative punishment, for example, dismissed from the firm, forbiddance to management position in listed firms, suggested dismissal from office or the Party by CSRC. Group I includes those are sentenced by the court. Source: Sun and Zhang (2006)
35 Outcomes for Chairmen After Scandal Group A include chairmen promoted to higher level positions in larger firms or their parent firms or higher level positions in government administrations. Group B includes those who keep their initial positions or move to similar position in the same firm or other firms affiliated to the same group. Group C includes those moved to same level positions in other comparable firms. Group D includes those moved to lower positions in the same firm. Group E includes those moved to lower positions in other firms. Group F includes those retire right after scandal or died soon after scandal. Group G include those go (flee) to other countries. Group H includes those subjected to severe administrative punishment, for example, dismissed from the firm, forbiddance to management position in listed firms, suggested dismissal from office or the Party by CSRC. Group I includes those are sentenced by the court. Source: Sun and Zhang (2006)
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