Demographic Change in North Carolina

Transcription

1 Demographic Change in North Carolina 5 Trends to Watch North Carolina Aggregates Association June 29, 2017 Rebecca Tippett, PhD Director, Carolina Demography

2 July 1 Population (Millions) North Carolina s Total Population (July 1), Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM Year

3 July 1 Population (Millions) North Carolina s Total Population (July 1), Officially 9th most populous state as of Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM Year

4 July 1 Population (Millions) North Carolina s Total Population (July 1), Officially 9th most populous state as of 2014 >10M in Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM Year

5 July 1 Population (Millions) North Carolina s Total Population (July 1), Officially 9th most populous state as of 2014 >10M in Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM Year

6 July 1 Population (Millions) North Carolina s Total Population (July 1), Officially 9th most populous state as of 2014 >10M in M in Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM Year

7 66% of NC residents lived in an urban area in 2010 Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

8 Population growth will be uneven across North Carolina Projected population growth, Data Source: NC OSBM

9 Fastest growing counties concentrated in major metro areas Projected population growth, Data Source: NC OSBM

10 Many non-metro counties projected to lose population Projected population growth, Data Source: NC OSBM

11 Almost all future NC growth projected to occur in urban areas Projected share of state population growth for select North Carolina metropolitan areas Triangle 34% Charlotte 34% Triad 10% Wilmington 7% Asheville 5% All Other Metros 10% No Metro Area 1% Data Source: NC OSBM

12 Two-thirds of NC growth projected to occur Triangle or Charlotte Projected share of state population growth for select North Carolina metropolitan areas Triangle 34% Charlotte 34% Triad 10% Wilmington 7% Asheville 5% All Other Metros 10% No Metro Area 1% Data Source: NC OSBM

13 Observed growth more uneven than projected Population growth, Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

14 Observed growth suggests Triangle may outpace projections Share of state projected vs. observed growth for select North Carolina metro areas Triangle Charlotte 34% 34% 34% 40% Triad 10% 10% Wilmington 7% 8% Asheville 5% 4% All Other Metros 5% 10% Projected ( ) No Metro Area -2% 1% Observed ( ) Data Source: NC OSBM, U.S. Census Bureau

15 Concentration of jobs in urban centers drives population shifts Share of state employment in Mecklenburg, Wake, and Durham, Q vs. Q % 2005 (Q2) 2015 (Q2) 13.7% 12.6% 10.7% 4.4% 4.7% Data Source: QCEW, BLS Mecklenburg Wake Durham

16 More than 40% of NC workers work in these 5 counties Net commuting patterns, , , , , , , ,000 Mecklenburg Wake Guilford Durham Forsyth Residents who Work Elsewhere Resident Workers Non-Resident Workers Data Source: Year American Community Survey

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18 Components of Population Change, NC, Number of People 180, , ,000 Natural Increase Net Migration 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Source: NC Population Estimates, OSBM Year

19 Components of Population Change, NC, Number of People 180, , ,000 Natural Increase Net Migration 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Source: NC Population Estimates, OSBM Year

20 Components of Population Change, NC, Number of People 180, , ,000 Natural Increase Net Migration 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Source: NC Population Estimates, OSBM Year

21 Components of Population Change, NC, Number of People 180, , million net migrants since ,000 Natural Increase Net Migration 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Source: NC Population Estimates, OSBM Year

22 Nearly half of state s 1.9M new residents by 2035 will be 65+ Projected NC population growth by age, , , , ,000 Under to to Data Source: NC OSBM

23 Population Proportion 65+ By 2035, more than 1 in 5 NC residents will be 65 or older Projected population share 65+, NC vs. US, % US NC 20% 21.4% 20.7% 15% 10% 13% 5% 0% Data Source: NC OSBM, U.S. Census Bureau Year

24 41 counties projected to have fewer children by 2035 Counties with projected declines in child population (0-17), Data Source: NC OSBM

25 47 counties projected to have fewer young adults by 2035 Counties with projected declines in young adult population (18-34), Data Source: NC OSBM

26 58 counties projected to have fewer working age adults by 2035 Counties with projected declines in prime working age adult population (35-64), Data Source: NC OSBM

27 Only one county projected to have fewer older adults by 2035 Counties with projected declines in older adult population (65+), Data Source: NC OSBM

28 Millennial adults surpassed Boomers as largest adult generation Generational composition of North Carolina's 18+ population, Proportion of 18+ Population 45% 40% 35% Boomers ( ) 31% Millennial in 2017 Millennial ( ) 30% 25% Gen X ( ) 20% 15% Silent ( ) 10% Gen Z (2005- ) 5% Greatest ( -1927) Data Source: NC OSBM 0% Year

29 Housing Unit Demand M households +793K homeowners Source: Carolina Demography projections using ACS, CPS, and NC OSBM data

30 Increases in vacation homes also impact infrastructure demands Vacation home change by NC census tract, 2000 to 2010 Loss of 100 or more 5 to to -5-4 to to or more Data Source: Carolina Demography

31 Faster growth among minority groups will increase diversity Population growth by race/ethnicity for North Carolina, % 21% 15% 3% 6% 4% Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau White Black American Indian Hispanic 2+ Asian

32 Future workforce more diverse than current workers Racial/ethnic distribution, NC adults (20+) and future workforce (0-19), 2015 White Black Hispanic Asian All Other Ages % 21% 7% Age % 24% 13% 5% Under 10 51% 23% 17% 6% Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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