A cost-benefit analysis of Lake Pyhäjärvi fisheries in
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1 A cost-benefit analysis of Lake Pyhäjärvi fisheries in EMMI NIEMINEN, PHD STUDENT DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT, FACULTY OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI INNOVATION AND RESEARCH NETWORK IN CHANGING CLIMATE CASE CRAYFISH /24/2014 1
2 Introduction (1) Lake Pyhäjärvi in Säkylä is a large but shallow lake The average temperature in the lake is predicted to increase in the future due to climate change Climate change will affect the populations and therefore the economic performance of the lake 10/24/2014 2
3 Introduction (2) How could climate change affect the economic performance of this sensitive lake system? A comparison between different future scenarios in order to analyse the possible economic effects Tool: Cost-benefit analysis 10/24/2014 3
4 Cost-benefit analysis The economic performance of lake Pyhäjärvi fisheries was estimated through a cost-benefit analysis For status quo in For possible future scenarios in NPV (net present value) = REVENUES COSTS REVENUES = fish price x catch COSTS = the price of a gear day x the number of the gear days 10/24/2014 4
5 Data Fishing costs derived by interviewing fishermen Fishing costs per gear day ( ). Seine Fyke Net Trap Own work Investment and maintenance of the gear Investment and maintenance of boat/snowmobile/car Other Total Estimates of the future catches by experts 10/24/2014
6 Scenarios 1) Climate change does not affect the populations or catches I. Status quo (vendace-whitefish-perch-crayfish) 2) Climate change affects populations and catches I. Perch 1 (perch-crayfish) II. Perch 2 (vendace-perch-crayfish) 3) Climate change affects the populations and catches, and additionally pike perch is succesfully stocked into the lake system I. Pike perch 1 (perch-pike perch-crayfish) II. Pike perch 2 (vendace-perch-pike perch-crayfish) 10/24/2014 6
7 1) Status quo in The fishery will remain in status quo also in Species: Vendace Whitefish Perch Crayfish Values in the status quo scenario Species Vendace Whitefish Perch Crayfish Fish price /kgs/pcs Catch kgs/pcs/year Seine Fishing cost Fyke /gear day Net Trap 0.55 Seine Fishing effort/year Fyke Net Trap /24/2014 7
8 2) Perch 1 and Perch 2 in Values in scenarios Perch 1 and Perch 2 Species Vendace Perch Crayfish Fish price /kgs/pcs -/ / /1.4 Perch 1 (perch-crayfish) Vendace fishery ends Perch catches increase Crayfish catches increase Catch kgs/pcs/year -/ / / Seine -/ /225.9 Fishing cost Fyke 40.3/40.3 /gear day Net 2.23/2.23 Trap 0.55/0.55 Seine -/ /103 Fishing effort/year Fyke 11748/11478 Net / Perch 2 (vendace-perch-crayfish) Vendace remains but the catches decrease heavily Perch cathes increase (predation on vendace) Crayfish catches increase Trap / Values in the status quo scenario Species Vendace Whitefish Perch Crayfish Catch kgs/pcs/year /24/2014 8
9 3) Pike perch 1 and Pike perch 2 in Pike perch 1 (perch-pike perch-crayfish) Vendace fishery ends Perch catches increase Succesful stocking of pike perch (predation on perch) Crayfish catches increase Pike perch 2 (vendace-perch-pike perch-crayfish) Vendace remains Perch catches increase (predation on vendace) Succesful stocking of pike perch (predation on vendace and perch) Crayfish catches increase Values in scenarios Pike perch 1 and Pike perch 2 Species Vendace Perch Pike perch Crayfish Fish price /kgs/pcs -/ / / /1.4 Catch kgs/pcs/year -/ / / / Seine -/ /207.0 Fishing cost Fyke 40.3/40.3 /gear day Net 2.23/ /2.23 Trap 0.55/0.55 Seine -/41 77/77 Fishing effort/year Fyke 7832/7832 Net 96788/ /38711 Trap / Catch kgs/pcs/year in status quo Vendace Whitefish Perch Crayfish /24/2014 9
10 Results (1) The current fishery in lake Pyhäjärvi is the least profitable among all scenarios Increased perch and crayfish populations increase the economic performance of the fishery Compansates economically the decreased vendace population Annual NPV: Status quo: Perch 1: Perch 2: Pike perch 1: Pike perch 2: /24/
11 Results (2) Succesful pike perch stocking would yield higher economic returns than status quo, but lower than perch scenarios This is due to high predation on perch and vendace But what is the likelihood to get pike perch stocked in the lake? Costs of stocking? Annual NPV: Status quo: Perch 1: Perch 2: Pike perch 1: Pike perch 2: /24/
12 Uncertainties The model ignores the cost arising from a change in the fishing technique (investments in new equipments etc) Prices are assumed to be constant over time If vendace catches decline in the future, one can suspect an increase in the price The opposite holds for the other species More information needed e.g. about the species interactions Improved data would allow dynamic modeling of the population dynamics -> better economic recommendations for the fishery (economic optimization) 10/24/
13 Conclusions Pyhäjärvi fishery could benefit from climate change due to heavily increased perch and crayfish catches Declined vendace catches would be compensated economically by increased perch and crayfish catches Succesful stocking of pike perch would likely decrease the economic performance of Pyhäjärvi fisheries under climate change due to increased predation on perch Lots of uncertainty -> further need for data 10/24/
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