What Really Wins Money

Transcription

1 September 2012 Volume 8 Issue 09 What Really Wins Money ***** An Independent Review of Tipsters and Betting Systems ***** Welcome to September, when the cold weather starts to bite and the Flat season makes way for the Jumps season and winter All Weather. I begin this month with a look at the humble football treble, and how we can stack the odds in our favour for a change. We then go fishing, for in-play horse racing sharks. With delay-react-trade previously covered as regards football and tennis, I thought I d turn my hand to horse racing: can we create value lay bets using the Betfair In-Play Betting market? Staying with football, I show you how you can create great bets with an outstanding probability of success. It s all down to patterns and sequences. Welcome to Odds Governor laying. No, not an article written by Paul Incey Ince. I argue here that we can set a limit on the odds we lay to, and then go out and find weaknesses. And as ever, there s a monthly catch up with my Home-Grown Betting systems, and they re all profiting, albeit to varying degrees. It seems, as you ll read, being a layer is the real payer! IMPORTANT! I had so much great content to share with you this month I simply ran out of space! But worry not, you can download them for free by going to Inside this issue: Horse Racing System Bait your Betting Line for In-Play Sharks...5 Laying Strategy A New Way to Lay?...7 Home-Grown System Updates How Have Our Home-grown Betting Ideas Been Performing?...11 The Cash Master s Systems and Tipsters Update...12 In your free download The Statman takes a look at the draw bias at Kempton s All Weather venue and provides a great statistical plan to profit from it. Meanwhile The Patriarch offers a great system on how you can get the Racing Post s insider secrets for free! So make sure you go and download these cracking strategies right away. Just go to: Football Betting Strategy Turn the Treble Odds in Your Favour Ah, the treble, that most welcome of accumulators. There are only three outcomes to choose, so it can t be that difficult can it? Well, when we are looking to get three selections correct from a Football Match odds market which has nine outcomes (home win, away win, draw multiplied by three matches), it s not quite as easy as it seems. The bookmaker, on the other hand, welcomes your trebles with a cheery smile and a below the counter wringing of his hands, safe in the knowledge that the odds are stacked in his favour. In a market where we have the win (1), the away win (2) and the draw (x), there are 26 out of 27 permutations of those three results which the bookmaker has running for him. Our trusty punter has a single treble running for him. If one result lets him down, then it s curtains. Let s look at this bookmaker advantage. In this example, I have chosen the Home Win, Home Win, Home Win Treble from three matches. As alluded to above, 1 represents a Home Win, please turn over...

2 2 represents the Away Win, and X represents the Draw. The treble I have chosen then is written as 111. If only 2 teams win and the other team does not, my treble will not be successful. All 3 Home teams have to win. Meanwhile, the bookmaker, sucking on a Havana cigar, and jingling his bling like the late Jimmy Saville, has these combinations of trebles working for him: 121 1X X2 11X 12X 1XX X X2 21X 22X 2XX X11 X21 XX1 X12 X22 XX2 X1X X2X XXX The bookmaker needs only one of the 26 combinations of trebles to come in, and he keeps our stake. We need little old lonesome 111 (three Home wins) to come in, and we win. Who is more likely to win this exchange, the backer (with his 111) or the layer with his 26 treble combinations? Sadly, the bookmaker is the most likely victor here. So, why don t we act like the bookmaker then? Yes, that s right! Instead of having a measly 1 treble running for us, let s have 26 trebles running for us instead. And it s all thanks to Betfair Multiples. Before I show you the ins and outs of constructing a treble, let s formulate a plan which will provide us with: Mostly odds-on selections (as a layer of the treble we would like to minimise liability). Construct the treble with bets where the odds-on shots will have to fight for a victory how about using teams playing away from home? Go to Click on Sports. In the sub heading menu, click on Multiples. Once at the Multiples site, click on Football Coupon. In the screenshot below I have accessed the Football Match Odds Coupon. I have changed the listing to All Events (By Start date). The next step is to construct a treble in which the odds for the three outcomes are evens (2.00 decimal odds) or odds on. I have scoured the Football Match Odds Coupon and selected Lille at 2.1, Anderlecht at 1.91 and Schalke at 2.0. All three selections are evens or just odds on, and importantly are playing away from home. I have noticed that when favourites away from home are priced at around evens, they tend to struggle in their matches (and coincidentally Manchester City were away to Stoke at time of writing, priced at around 1.78, and they conceded the first goal, and could only manage a 1-1). In their current format, these three teams are in a traditional treble. In order to become the bookmaker though, we want to lay this treble. On the right-hand side of the screen in the Place Bets section you will notice the following: There is an option provided to Back Multiple. Here we become the long-suffering punter, with our lonely single treble. There is also an option to Lay Multiple. By clicking on this option, we become the bookmaker and have a whopping 26 permutations of the treble for It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money, Subscription Office, Unit 3, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5NF. Tel: Fax: Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ. Registered in England No Vat Reg No Copyright What Really Wins Money

3 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to those three matches running for us. You will know that you have selected the Lay Multiple correctly as it will turn the bet pink. Returning to our featured multiple, let s look at how the treble appears when we become the bookmaker: aker. Betfair tells us You are betting against your selections. We also have a Potential Liability. I have used 100 stakes for illustration purposes here, hence the liability is rather high at 733 (this is because the odds for this treble are 8.33). We have now become a bookmaker. We are opposing these three away sides in a treble. If just one of the sides draws or loses, then we win. Let s look at how these 3 selections fared. What are the chances of that happening again? If you ask this question under the right circumstances, you can uncover some very good bets, at odds which are reasonable, and with an outstanding chance of profiting for you. What is behind the question? One word Probability What are the chances of that happening again? If we apply the question to our form research, we can uncover sequences and patterns which are highly unlikely to continue (for layers), or are likely to continue (for backers). These patterns and sequences provide us with an angle in, enabling us to create a bet. Let s look at examples of probability betting in horse racing and in football in particular. In the footballing example below, you ll see, I hope, how easy it is to spot Patterns and Sequences. This is a representation of Paris Saint Germain s recent form: What does it show us? Quite obviously, there have been seven consecutive draws in all competitions. Two of the away sides drew 1-1 (coincidentally the same score line which Manchester City managed away to Stoke). In this case, we won our treble. Feels nice to be a bookmaker sometimes, doesn t it? (I feel like a pantomime villain here!) I will be keeping screenshots of the Betfair Multiples prices on a daily basis and monitoring how away sides fare when evens (2.00 decimal) or odds on. The odds for the layer are still a little high, but do factor in that we have 26 of 27 combinations running for us. Why not follow the step-by-step guide in the accompanying video and paper trade your own carefully constructed trebles, and at last have the odds overwhelmingly in your favour. 3 And here s the first rule of pattern recognition : the longer the sequence, the nearer we are to said sequence ending. The more eagle-eyed amongst you have also spotted the two consecutive 0-0 score lines away to Ajaccio and at home to Bordeaux. Now it s time to ask some questions: What are the chances of an 8th consecutive draw for PSG? What are the chances of a 3rd consecutive 0-0 score line for PSG? And delving a little deeper, what are the chances that Zlatan Ibrahimovic, PSG s new world-class striker, will go a 3rd consecutive match without scoring? Well, the answers to the above questions appear in please turn over...

4 the very next match. All of these patterns ended in the very next match, and you could have profited from each one. A 0-0 score line ended. The draws ended, and Ibrahimovic scored twice. Incidentally, I would recommend making a list of world-class strikers and looking at their goalscoring records in recent matches. If they have not scored for 2/3 or preferably more matches, and they are playing in the team in each match, back them to end their drought. By world class, I mean Messi at Barcelona, Ronaldo at Real Madrid, Eto o at Anzhi, and the aforementioned Ibrahimovic at PSG. Here are some bang up-to-date patterns to help you understand the concept. I use in each example. Look at Real Madrid s recent league form: Let s wheel out our trusty question. What are the chances of... A 3rd consecutive 0-1 defeat at home. A 3rd consecutive 0-0 at half-time in home matches. A 3rd match without AC Milan scoring a goal at home. It s inconceivable isn t it? Again, you will be able to check this result for yourself on the 26th September. Pazzini scored a hat-trick in Milan s away match. Obviously he is a world-class striker. Surely he cannot go a 3rd match at home without scoring? These patterns and sequences are everywhere and can be exploited for profit. Simply ask the question what are the chances of that happening again? and you ll be able to uncover some great bets. A quick online way of identifying specific footballrelated patterns and sequences can be found at Note the longer the season goes on, the stronger the patterns and sequences. Click on the league of your choice and the team of your choice, and then focus on the STREAKS table. Here is Liverpool s streaks table: Have you spotted the sequence? Perhaps if I present the form with a specific focus on away form, it might become apparent: Real Madrid have lost their last two away matches in the league. By the time you receive this month s newsletter, they will have played Rayo Vallecano. What chance a Real Madrid win? Ronaldo has not scored in these two current league away matches. Will this end against an admittedly poorer quality Vallecano side? Let s take a look at AC Milan s home form as I write: 4 Only four matches into the season as I write, but no win in four matches. They have conceded in all four matches. Expect, therefore, a win to nil against the right opponents (Norwich City v Liverpool is coming up soon!). This streaks table will be invaluable as the season

5 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to progresses. Make sure you read my football research at to see how I identify patterns and sequences, and hope to profit from them. Next month I will be looking at patterns and sequences as they apply to the world of horse racing. Patterns, in this arena, tend to concern the main protagonists such as: The trainer The jockey The horse s form Performance of favourites at a particular venue In the meantime, why don t you look out for patterns and sequences in the upcoming football matches? The less likely a pattern is to continue (it would be intolerable, for instance, for AC Milan to continue losing at home and without scoring, as well as Real Madrid to continue losing away matches) the more confident you should be in placing a bet contrary to the current sequence/pattern. Horse Racing System Bait your Betting Line for In-Play Sharks have spoken at length about my concept of DRT I (delay-react-trade) and its successful uses in the Football and Tennis markets. There is, however, one more prominent market which is pre-race and in-play, and that market is the Horse Racing market at Is there a way that we can use a derivative of the delay, react, trade idea in order to create value bets? I think there is. The problem though is that we are not really reacting are we? What can we react to in horse racing that is comparable with what we can react to in football? In football, for instance, we react to goals and red cards in-play. In tennis, we react to a player unexpectedly finding themselves one or two sets down when not expected (need I remind you of the US Open Final which has just concluded? Our hero, Andy Murray, was two sets to love up against defending US Open Champion Novak Djokovic. Reacting to the World Number 1 being two sets down, we could have layed Andy Murray in the hope that Novak Djokovic would make a fight of it to ensure continuity in the Final). Back to horse racing, I suppose the only things we can react to are a horse s odds reducing or lengthening while the race is in-play. I think that we can react and profit from a reduction in odds, i.e. from laying. And the key to the successful implementation of D-R-T is the correct use of the keep bets facility on Betfair. Delay, react, trade as it applies to laying in-play consists of dangling some bait, i.e. horses at shorter odds than they are in the pre-race market. The hope is that, when the horse race market goes in-play, one of the shorter priced lays will get matched, in whole or in part, and provide us with a value lay. Imagine laying a 100/1 horse at 10/1 and that horse still losing! Here s how to set up that bait. Our first port of call is Go to We are looking for a horse race with 13+ runners, enough to offer some competition. If we are trying to lay one horse here, we have 12 horses running for us. Our next step will be to lay the outsiders, BUT at odds way below their pre-race prices. Below is a traditional race card: We can check the number of selections by looking at the above arrowed section of the race card at Look at all horses 50+ in the odds. In this race Substantivo and Booktheband are the two horses of interest at odds of 85 and 95. Click on the pink boxes for both horses bracketed above. 5 please turn over...

6 Now change the lay odds to 8 (you can change the lay odds to higher if you want, such as 10, 12, if you think in-play bettors will bite better!). Enter your stake you hope to win. In this case I enter 10: Keep bets will ensure these bets are submitted in-play. This next screenshot confirms that you have submitted these bets correctly. Above is a close up of the potential lay bets. The odds for Substantivo and Booktheband are shown at 8 (their true odds are 90 and 110). Now we submit these bets into the in-play betting market. So click Submit and this will bring you to the next screen: Betfair tells us that the bet changed successfully from Cancel at In-Play to Keep at In-Play. Wait now for the race to go in-play. If using you will need to keep clicking on the refresh button to update prices. (note specialist software will refresh the screen for you.) Once the race is in-play you will see this screen: This screen is telling us (rightly) that the bets on Substantivo and Booktheband are unmatched. This is because, as layers, we are trying to lay horses at prices much lower than they currently are in the pre-race market. The secret to having these value lays accepted is to use Betfair s KEEP BETS facility. Look for the At In-Play part of the Betting Coupon, and change the options from Cancel to Keep. 6 The refresh button is arrowed above. The hope now is that the odds for either Substantivo or Booktheband will shorten, fleetingly, to our predetermined price of 8 (much more appealing to a layer than 90 or 110!) and then lose the race. If one of these bait bets is matched, immediately click on the Cancel all Unmatched button to ensure you are laying just the one horse, increasing your chances of success (laying more than one horse of course increases the risk of a winner, and layers don t want that!). This is the only current actionable idea I have regarding implementing the delay-react-trade strategy with the horse racing markets. I have chosen outsiders because these outsiders tend to be rather illiquid. This means that they attract

7 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to little money in the market. The hope, therefore, is that when the race goes in-play, it will take very little to shorten the prices of the outsiders. Sometimes this occurs quickly and fleetingly. Why lay at 8 odds? Honestly, it is an arbitrary figure. You can set a price band for instance. If you are laying horses priced 50-80, for instance, lay at odds of 8 up to 10. If you are laying over 80 odds, try laying at odds of Choose your races carefully What we are looking for is a competitive race, perhaps a 13+ runner race offering plenty of natural competition. I suppose the most competitive race is the handicap race, and amongst handicap races, it is the sprint races which are the hardest to win (5, 6, 7 furlong races). Look also for top-heavy markets. Below is an example of a top-heavy market: Laying Strategy A New Way to Lay? No, this article is not about self-styled Guvnor Paul Incey Ince, it s about a new way to shortlist horses to lay on the betting exchanges. Throughout the newsletter, and in articles at www. whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk, I have spoken about what I call the liability issue. The ways to control this liability issue is to focus on short-priced horses only, or compromise returns by fixing our liability. In this article I will look to focus on short-priced horses only to lay. And so to the Odds Governor... Some cars have a governor in their engine to control their speed. Why not use this concept with horses? We can have an odds governor to control liability. We can now shortlist horses whose odds are below a specific price, and then, and only then, look for potential weaknesses building up a case to lay. How to shortlist potential lays Go to Click on Sports, then click on Horse Racing. You will see a table like the one below. The inference here is that Top Man Michael, Hurricane Ridge and Stocktons Wing will dominate as there is a prominent gap to the next horse, Habesh. Look at the race type too. We may get greater success with these bait bets if we look at hurdles and chase races. Sometimes the favoured horses make a jumping error, or an outsider fleetingly takes the early lead or is running well early in the race, enough for his odds to reduce for a short time. Please do take a look at the accompanying video which shows the creation of bait bets using Betfair s website as well as specialist software. I will be sharing any examples of successful lays using this looking for a bite lay method. 7 Click on GB to access the Racing in mainland UK. Go through each race and note horses whose odds are below your odds governor. In this case, I will set my odds governor at 3.5. Ignore maiden races (where form is thin on the ground). Here is a recent example of a shortlist, taken from Brighton. Light Burst is priced under our odds governor of 3.5. please turn over...

8 As is Lisselan Pleasure: more practical method which we can use to instantly say yay or neigh to laying a particular nag? Try this three-point plan. It takes three elements from the above list of weaknesses and provides us, ideally, with quality over quantity in our horse racing laying. STEP 1 A rise in class If a horse is rising in class, the inference is that the horse is facing stronger opponents today. If the horse is also priced below our odds governor, then perhaps his chances of winning are less than the odds suggest? Light Burst was our first horse of interest. Here is the Racing Post race card for the 2:50 Brighton: Now we have solved the issue regarding which horses to focus on as layers, we now need to build up a case to oppose. Laying collecting the negatives Laying for me is about collecting as many negatives as you can about a particular horse. This list of negatives can include any of the following: Jockey poor strike rate this season Trainer out of form /poor strike rate this season Horse is going up in class today (suggesting difficulty coping with better class of animal) Change in distance Extremes of ground Competitive betting forecast/ betting market where the odds for the first 4/5 in the betting are tightly constricted A suggestion that the horses are closely matched in strengths (the Postdata Box at the Racing Post) Poor Win rate for Horse, or a horse yet to win. Horses with distinct absences from the course. There are excellent methods for identifying horses to lay based solely on their form, but is there an easier, 8 In order to ascertain whether the horse is up in class today, we need to determine today s class. This is found in the Race Title, which tells us this is a Class 6 race. (Note, when you see Class 6, it is unlikely that our possible selection will be rising in class today, because class 6 is about as low as you can go.) If you want to check class, using com, simply hover your mouse over the horse s name and click, to access his form. The form is presented below: The last race was on 14th September 2012 and Light Burst ran in a Class 6 handicap. He is not, therefore, up in class today. Step 2 Competitiveness I judge the competitiveness of the race using three factors. The first factor is the number of course, dis

9 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to tance, course and distance, and beaten favourites in the field. There are three CD (course and distance) winners out of eight runners in this field. I would prefer to see more. Look, too at the Betting Forecast. Are the odds constricted? Here we have Light Burst at 11/4, with the next two horses at 4/1 then a 5/1 horse then a 7/1 horse. A good trick to sense the competitiveness of the race is to look at the price of the outsider. Here the outsider is 16/1 in the betting forecast. Not your bone fide 100/1 outsider quote is it? There are more freely available features, which determine competitiveness. The OR represents the horse s Official Rating. We would like to see another Concertina effect with the Official Ratings. In this case, Daffy and Conducting are near to Light Burst at 65. The RPR, or Racing Post Rating, is also used by layers to determine competitiveness. The RPR in and of itself, hints at competitiveness as the whole field falls in the band of One last method to gauge competitiveness is the Postdata Box. The Postdata Box is only available to members of or those with the newspaper version (perhaps the Free Racing Post stats sites mentioned by the Patriarch might come to our rescue?). The Postdata Box is shown below, and signals strengths or weaknesses with ticks or crosses: Of course, if you are a layer, you would like to see a number of Xs and?s appear in this box. I tend to pay attention to Ability and Recent Form. With the Ability column, it s a good sign for us layers if one or more horses have more ticks than our potential lay. Here Light Burst has two ticks, whereas Ermyn Flyer and Daffydowndilly have three. Indeed, the five other horses all join Light Burst on two ticks. Admittedly it is a very basic method of identifying competitiveness but is a useful addition to building up a case to oppose Step 3 The trainer and jockey form If the trainer and the jockey both have poor Win percentages, then that must be a good sign for layers. Returning to you can simply click on the trainer s name and the jockey s name, to bring up their strike rates. The lower the strikerate the better. We need to identify weaknesses for the trainer, particularly with other horses the same age as Light Burst. Light Burst is a three year old. The trainer has four wins from three-year olds, a 9% strike rate in the last five season. That is poor (but admittedly a small sample). The trainer has had two winners in the last two days. What are the chances of a 3rd winner, with the same horse who won last time out? The next thing to look at is the STATISTICAL SUMMARY, as seen below: 9 please turn over...

10 This statistical summary needs to match today s venue which is Great Britain Turf Flat, so Filter Results by GB Flat. It shows the trainer with four wins from 57 runs and a 7% strike rate which is very poor. The Jockey s Form Like the trainer, we want to see a jockey with a poor strike rate. To access his details simply click on his name at on the race card. The table above shows that Tom Queally, when riding 3 year olds over the last five seasons, has a 13% strike rate. (Anything under 20% must be seen as a positive to use layers.) Clicking on STATISTICS will bring up his performance at the course. No wins from two at Bath in 2012, and he has only won three from 28 at Bath in the last five years. Riding 3 year olds at Bath, Tom Queally has five losses from five. The statistical summary at the top also recounts a 12% strike rate for 2012, which is below 20% so good for us layers. 10 These are the elements I would look at when identifying a possible lay. The lines in bold suggest a more streamlined method. Has the horse gone up in class? If it has, this is a great sign. Is this an apparent competitive race? We can see this by looking at the Postdata Box and noticing if horses have similar or greater ability and recent form than our potential lay. This should suffice in determining competitiveness. A more thorough analysis can look at the Betting Forecast where we d want to see a tightly-packed market with closely-matched odds. Is the trainer operating for this season at a strike rate less than 20% for the year with all runners? If you want to delve deeper, look for the trainer s recent form over the last 14 days (a slight niggle that this trainer has two recent wins, but a look at his poor strike rate suggests he may not sustain that). Look also at how the trainer performs at the venue and with the same age of horse as the one he is running today. Is the jockey operating for this season at a strike rate less than 20% for the year with all runners? Like the trainer, look at recent form over the last 14 days, strike rate on the surface over the year, and the strike rate at the specific venue. Would I lay Light Burst? Well, if I were being picky, I would want to see the horse running in a class above his last race, just to add the extra element of weakness to his profile. The race looks competitive. His opponents seem as well matched as him. His trainer and jockey have very poor overall strike rates. Three out of four ain t bad. Indeed, if you wanted to scale down your stakes if three out of four of our criteria are met, then this will allow for more bets. Those seeking quality over quantity might want to look for four out of four criteria met before betting. Why not try laying horses by setting an odds governor, and then looking for potential weaknesses, following the 4 basic criteria I have outlined here. It ensures that we re not spending all day making selections, and that we re laying at reasonably short odds. I will update you on how this strategy performs, as I make a note of all qualifying bets. The accompanying video will detail the strategy in full:

11 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to Home-Grown System Updates How Have Our Home-grown Betting Ideas Been Performing? In simple terms, using the above example, we are fixing the amount we risk losing if a lay selection actually wins the race. In last month s eletter I showed you the wave pattern forming with Percentage liability laying. Has it continued? Let s take a look. NAPS 12/13 It s been a year since I began looking to back only those horses chosen by 12 or 13 of the tipsters in the Selections Box at the Racing Post. So, how has this simplest of ideas performed? A near 73% strike rate with average odds of 1.53 ensures a profit of 11.8 points to level stakes. As I said last month, a 12-point return for a year is excellent for any financial strategist! We get what we pay for here. There is no form research whatsoever, just an ability to read the number 12 or 13. So don t expect huge returns for little real effort! The video will show you that more technical staking plans, such as those found at will greatly increase profits if we can be assured that the next year will produce an identical 72% strike rate with average odds of I like this system for its simplicity, but its returns will of course be off-putting to some. Still, it s an strategy easy to follow and one which builds a betting bank slowly over time. This is something that can be run in the low risk part of your betting portfolio. Lay Favs Last Race of the Day This home-grown system is simplicity itself. We lay the favourite in the last race of the day, in the UK and in Ireland. If you recall from last month, it is prudent to lay the favourites in the last race of the day using percentage liability laying and fixed liability laying. Percentage liability laying in this case means our liability is 10% of our betting bank. So a betting bank of 100 means that our liability will be 10. Please view the accompanying video for a refresher course on distinguishing fixed liability from fixed staking. 11 There is a period of stagnation at present, after three consecutive higher highs as the chart analysts call them, accompanied by three higher lows. Since 9th November 2011, starting with 100 betting bank and looking to lay to a fixed liability of 10%, the bank currently lies at 311 (a 211 profit on the year). These settings are relatively low risk. If the near 71% strike rate continues, I am sure the betting bank will continue making money. The other profitable staking plan when laying favourites in the last race of the day was the Fixed liability staking plan. Last month I showed you the wave pattern emerging with this staking plan which suggested that we should expect consistent periods of drawdown followed by a sustained period of winning lays (or losing last race favourites). please turn over...

12 The upward progression has levelled out slightly recently, but is threatening to renew its upward curve. Look at the two small arrows at the top right-hand corner. They suggest a possible move upwards. I hope so. Laying to a fixed liability is the profitable angle here, as it will negate the effect of those bigger priced favourites winning in the last race of the day. Concerns? Well, when dealing with favourites we are always at the behest of winning runs (we don t want that!). The hope remains that the apparent stat that only 33% of favourites win can hold true when focussing on a single race on a daily basis. As things stand, fixed liability laying and percentage liability laying are proving most profitable and I hope this will continue when I report back next month. An analysis of the odds suggests as mentioned last month we avoid the bigger priced favourites as they incur the greater losses as you can see below: Lay Novice Hurdle 3rd Favs As the title suggests, we lay horses that are 3rd in the betting in Novice Hurdle races in the UK and Ireland. I have been recording the performance of 3rd favourites since December 2011 and concluded that, because of size of the odds on some 3rd favourites, that it was best to use fixed liability laying. An 89.5% strike rate is impressive, helped largely by a current sequence of 32 consecutive 3rd favourites losing their races. Laying to a fixed liability of only 10 has turned a 100 starting betting bank into 275 (a 175 profit). I spoke earlier about percentage laying, and that has increased the returns from a 100 starting bank to just under 400. Laying to win 10 rather than lose 10 (fixed stake laying), has proven profitable thanks to the current long run of successful lays. A 100 starting bank now lies at around 1,111, a 1,011 profit since December This lay system has to survive the Jumps season proper which we are entering into this September when there will be numerous qualifying bets, so I will be looking at performance now the winter is upon us. There are some slight niggles with the system. The first is the need to be following the novice hurdle races in a live environment because we need to see which horse qualifies as the 3rd favourite (the video will show you the best way to do this). There are also some concerns in races where the odds are very tight, and the 3rd favourite only becomes distinguishable at the last minute. 2nd Favourites The 2nd Favourites system has produced an overall profit of to date. When I last reported on it, the profit stood at 652. The reason? Well, we back 2nd favourites in a specific meeting using a unique staking plan of for six races, stopping at a winner. If we have a day when there are no 2nd favourites winning, we lose 9 points, or 90 to 10 a point stakes. I will continue to monitor the system until the end of the year. It is still in profit. As ever, I will remind you of the system s criteria in the accompanying video. The Racing Post Free Ratings I wrote an article in a recent What Really Wins Money about the potential profitability of backing horses who have the highest RPR (Racing Post Ratings) and highest Topspeed Rating. I added a rather peculiar caveat that the horses would be the Betting Forecast Favourite or Spotlight selection, BUT not both. By looking at the results, it dawned on me that backing these Racing Post selections each-way was the best way to preserve the betting bank when a horse did not win but did finish 2nd and 3rd. The results are looking reasonable. As there are literally hundreds of selections collated since January this year, I am working methodically through these using specific staking software with an each-way facility. As we progress, I want to make these Home

13 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to Grown system spreadsheets available for inspection online to WRWM readers. The reason is that, as I have noticed in the past, feedback has opened up a profitable betting angle that I had missed. I will be liaising with my colleagues in this regard. New ideas? I am working on a number of new ideas. I want this home-grown section to be characterised by simple systems which offer long-term profitability, but require no direct form research. I have been keeping a record of all eight and nine runner races in the hope that I can find a profitable each way pattern (after all, eight and nine runner races are the smallest fields which pay each-way backers for horses who finish 2nd and 3rd). I have noticed, incidentally, that the favourites in these eight and nine-runner races do not win as often as expected. Are there the seeds of a potential lay system here? As ever, I need to collate the results, and translate the odds to Betfair SP, and then take it through my staking software to identify whether we can wholesale lay favourites in eight and nine runner races and profit long term. So watch out for updates in that regard, as well as a final analysis of my price gapper lays idea which I am really taken with, to be honest. It has shown consistent profitability. I will finalise performance in the last four months in time for October s Hauntingly Good What Really Wins Money. I am also trialling a simple three-step horse racing laying strategy which identifies very few selections over a given week, the hope being that this is quality over quantity. More next month. Reviews: The Cash Master s Systems and Tipsters Update I have nine reviews and updates for you this month. All past reviews can be found over at: Beaumonts Bets Would you believe this service has actually been criticised as flawed because it WINS TOO 13 MUCH!!! I m serious about that. One reader actually complained that he wouldn t be getting involved with this service because when you win too much the bookies close your accounts. I guess there s just no pleasing some people but for most of us mortals, this is a problem they would LOVE to encounter (and one that can be overcome with a little imagination). There s plenty of money to be won before you have to worry about that though (check out the winnings of some of the testimonials) and last month was a bumper month for the service, returning an incredible... wait for it points on the backing only side, 106 points on the original back/lay 75% version, and 121 points on the new back/lay 75% variation. In case you don t know, the backing only requires a 200 point bank, the back/lay 75% requires an 80 point bank, and the new variation just a 50 point bank (242% return in one month!). This is, hands down, the best racing service you will ever encounter. Oh, and there s a full money back guarantee on the first month of service, just in case you don t like winning so much either... Profitable Lays We gave this system a neutral rating earlier in the year but I do check on it now and again as I think it has merit and whilst itís not a massive earner, it does seem to make a half decent overall profit (over 14,000 to recommended stakes). Last month it made 36 points and itís 15 points in profit already this month so itís looking like it could turn out to be a good year for the system if this run continues. Check it out here: Russell Gibbs August was slightly profitable for the Russell Gibbs service with a loss of 39 on the backing side at 10 bets, but a profit of 200 on the laying side at 100 fixed liabilities, so still a small profit after subscriptions. September has started off well though with a 17-2 winner already. please turn over...

14 You can try the Russell Gibbs service here: Ace Betting Club Iíve been recording and publishing the results of this service since 20/7/12 and am ready to give my final verdict. This is a Tennis tipping service that delivers the tips direct to your inbox, usually during the night before the matches are due to be played. On the odd occaision there have been bets left pending for a few days as the sport is often subject to change due to weather conditions. The selection s are very clear and easy to read and understand and the prices quoted are easily getable, if not bettered by shopping around. This trial was a little different for me as I have no interest in the sport whatsoever, I know nothing about it at all. Iím aware of the bigger playersí names and I have a certain aesthetic appreciation for a rather noisy Russian who shall remain toothsome but nameless. Unfortunately the results of the trial have not been overly impressive. It did finish slightly in profit (3.17 points) thanks to a big win with the last bet of the trial. It would have been far worse had it not been for the Olympic Tournament. The service was around 8 points down before the Olympics started, they took a weeks break from providing tips to study the form ahead of the tournament, and by the time the medals were handed out they had gained an impressive points profit. But, sadly, itís been a slow slide back from there ever since. When the high cost of the service ( 72 per month) and the results published on the website for the few months previous to my trial are factored in then Iím afraid I cannot possibly recommend joining as it stands and this must be filed under FAILED. It does seem telling that when they took a week off to study ahead of a tournament they managed a great profit but all other efforts have eroded this to nothing. Maybe it would serve them better to only do larger tournaments when theyíve had chance to study form etc? Maybe the Olympics just ran more to predictable form? I am unable to answer those questions but what I am able to do is state that without the Olympic results weíd be looking at a loss of points and a service providing a Strike Rate of 46.75% with Average Odds of just Which is just not going to allow any profit whatsoever. You can try Ace Betting Club here: Lay From 3 A SYSTEM THAT BRIDGES THE GAP BETWEEN NOVICE AND VETERAN LayFrom3 website Current balance : ( loss) Strike rate: 78.48% (350 losing lay bets out of 446 selections). The marketing pitch on the website suggest that the makers have seen profitable use between September and October 2011 using 100 level stakes, amassing a total profit of over 8,000 (in 2 months)! 80 points profit in 2 months from lay betting, a very impressive claim indeed! Regrettably, the trial results were unable to replicate anywhere near this level of success in a similar time frame... The software is installed and run from your PC / VPS. Each day you need to run the ratings analyser on races of your own choosing, (there is no recommendation of which races to aid a profitable betting strategy). The software uses the Racing Post to rate the first three favourites and selects the one in it s opinion to be the lowest rated. Quite what the ratings methodology used here is unknown but is form based using the days race card for its analysis. For most maiden races where a favourite horse has no previous form, the race is not suitable for consideration. Selections had a ceiling lay price of 8.0 and races of less than 8 runners at the off, were not considered at all. I chose to work with a realistic fixed liability lay of 30 which I figured was quite reasonable. Although the software would select the least favourite of the three, I found the software prone to faults displaying an error message all too frequently when running through the race cards. This happened almost every day, whilst this was not a software crash, the frequency of pop-up type errors became a little tiresome. Perhaps this was specific to the Windows Server operating system on my VPS, but I would have thought an error like this

15 For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to should have been picked up during test(?). The selections themselves though are the problem with this system. The strike rate when laying these picks is simply too low. So using these selections on their own is unlikely to make you any real money in the long term as illustrated by the tattered bank balance after 7 weeks. Is it likely to offer good fortunes when selecting a specific race type...? My trial results would suggest not although at a stretch you may be tempted to try All-Weather tracks with this system over a longer period, as this one did at one point show a reasonable profit before a recent spell of winners put paid to that. Perhaps if you have a specific race selection system in your betting portfolio and as part of your method you need to identify the weakest form based runner of the first three then maybe this tool could assist you in your quest. One thing you do need to be aware of is that the picks are only considered valid lay selections when the other two favourites are also in the running, so unless you wish to place bets manually just before the off (which because of the potential number of selections on any one day I DO NOT RECOM- MEND!) you will almost certainly need to consider using in conjunction with a betting bot that has a must run selection facility. I used the Bet Engine which did an admirable job, but I am sure that there are also others you could consider for this task. However, Lay from 3 has to be consigned to the FAILED bin it simply couldn t maintain a sustained level of profit and didn t in fact hit profit at all during the trial period! You can get Lay From 3 here: Golf Pro Selections With regret I am going to have to bin this trial. 3 selections in nearly 2 months is not good enough. There may be valid reasons as to why selections have dried up, and I am more than happy to revisit this if the service resumes. Until then this has to go in to FAILED. You can try Gold Pro Selections here: 15 High Strike Lays I wanted to provide readers with an update for this LAY tipping service reviewed back in June. It was my intention to assess whether fortunes had changed and the results achieved could have pulled the bank back into the black. To do this I need results. However, the website results have not been updated since June and despite half a dozen s to the administrator of this service my requests appear to have fallen on deaf ears, with the results failing to be updated some two months after the last posting. Draw what conclusions you will from this... Therefore, with the trial bank suffering losses amounting to 28% of the starting balance of 1000 I can only rate this service as FAILED. You can try High Strike Lays here: Secret Winners Current balance (start 500) : (137 selections / 100 losing lays), strike rate :73.0% Regrettably, the strike rate of this service simply hasn t been high enough during this trial period to sustain any degree of profitability seeing as the bank hasn t been in profit at all since the trial began! However, the service (much like its sister offering (High Strike Lays)), has had a reasonable degree of success in previous months. I have run the trial of this service on my betting bot but paper trading as I have been, I am unable to place bets to BSP pricing which is the plan advocated by the service providers. Consequently I have taken prices a minute or so before the off. So, the prices may have skewed results somewhat, but the last few weeks of reasonable weather here in the UK appear to have affected results with a reasonable number of low priced selections achieving first place. The providers website has the following results table to illustrate the power of these tips in previous months. To the advised 10% liability staking plan: (monthly results shown below assume a fresh 1,000 start bank each month): December 2011 : January 2012 : 159 please turn over...

16 February 2012 : 783 March 2012 : 2,384 April 2012 : 478 May 2012: 1,905 June 2012 : 303 July 2012: -64 August 2012 (to 11th) : 234 For most, perhaps 10% on a 1,000 start bank scenario may be a little too high but purely for comparison purposes assuming a fresh 100 bank each month you would be sitting on a profit of 625 (of course, this is not at all representative as monthly compounding on the attained balance per month would play a significant factor in boosting these figures). You will have to make your own judgements from the tabulated results above based solely on the findings during my 8 week trial the bank was left with a deficit so I can only give this service a FAILED rating. You can try Secret Winners here: The Players Lottery If you don t already know about this then it s worth having a peruse of the site because it s free to register and you automatically get entered into a 50,000 welcome draw. There s no obligation to buy any tickets, you don t have to enter any card details or subscribe to anything, all you do is register with one simple page, submit and you re in for a chance of winning 50,000. I ve just gone and registered and, seeing as it s a bit of fun, I ve also bought a 5 lottery ticket which gives me a 1 in 300,000 chance of winning 1,000,000. Not much chance I know, but a hell of a lot better odds than the 1 in 14 million of winning the National Lottery, plus it s a guaranteed jackpot too. Anyhow, you d be daft not to enter the free draw for 50,000 so if you fancy a free punt, take about two minutes registering here: 16