Summary and Comparison of the Data Used by the TTO and CRS Reelection Analyses

Transcription

1 Summary and Comparison of the Data Used by the and Reelection Analyses First through 104 th Reelected Representatives in the U. S. House Comparison of and TT0 Analyses th Second through % % 60% 40% 20% 0% Supplement to Quantitative Historical Analysis #7 Contact: Quidam@ Published

2 Table of Contents Section 1 Overview... 1 Section 2 Comparison of and Data and Analytical Results 2

3 Overview 1. OVERVIEW This supplemental report provides additional supporting data for the following two reports: The Prevalence of Reelected Representatives in the U. S. House The Reelection Rates of Incumbents in the U. S. House Prior to the above-referenced reports, the 1 report entitled Reelection Rates of Incumbents: , 2 was the only comprehensive analysis of the history of reelection rates in the U. S. House. Consequently, a detailed comparison of these two analyses is in order. The report was produced in March of 1995 and it covers the period from the first to the 102 nd es. Though the and analyses rely upon two entirely different databases, the original provenance for both datasets is the same: the Biographical Directory of the U. S. 3 (BDUSC). The common origin for the raw data explains the overall similarity between the and analyses. This report provides the relevant data from the report along with the corresponding data so as to facilitate a comparison of the two. However, anyone wishing to fully understand the data and methodology should read the report. 2 With respect to the data sources and methodology, these are explained in the reports referenced above. 1 refers to The Reelection Rates of Incumbents: from the ional Research Service. refers to the reports produced by. 2 Reelection Rates of Incumbents: , by David C. Huckabee, was published by the ional Research Service on March 8, The report provides reelection rates at the aggregate (U. S.) level through A copy of the report is available at 3 Additional information regarding the BDUSC can be found at QHA #7 Supplement

4 Comparison of and Data and Analytical Results 2. COMPARISON OF AND DATA AND ANALYTICAL RESULTS 2.1. Data Definitions The table below defines the categories included in the following data tables. In addition, it references where in the report the data can be found. Measure Definition Report Reference House Size Total Representatives Sought Reelection (nominal) Sought Reelection % (nominal) Reelected Incumbent Prevalence Percentage of House Reelected PICR Percent of Incumbent Candidates Reelected The authorized number of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives (by ). The total number of Representatives elected to each. The total number of incumbents who were identified as having sought reelection to the subsequent. (Includes those who unsuccessfully sought renomination.) Sought Reelection House Size (%) The number of incumbents who won reelection to the subsequent. The number of reelected incumbents (i.e., ) as a percentage of the size of the House to which they were elected. The number of reelected incumbents (i.e., ) as a percentage of the size of the House from which they were elected. Sought Reelection Imputed from Table 1 (-5), column #3 (by dividing the quantity by the percentage value). Not calculated. Table 1 (-5), column #3: Total (percent) who ran for reelection. Footnote #3: The total running for reelection category includes those Members who sought renomination, but who were not renominated. Table 1 (-5), column #6: Won Reelection Imputed from Table 1 (-5) as follows: House Size (imputed). Table 1 (-5), column #8: Percent of House reelected Table 1 (-5), column #7: Percent winning reelection QHA #7 Supplement

5 Comparison of and Data and Analytical Results 2.2. Roster File The Roster file used as the basis for the analysis is the Roster of United States ional Officeholders and Biographical Characteristics of Members of the United States, Merged Data. 4 Both the ICPSR Roster file and the database derive their original source data from the same place: the Biographical Directory of the United States (BDUSC). The only material distinction is that the Roster file (used by the study) was derived from the 1980 edition of the BDUSC whereas the data base is derived from the data set which was available on-line as of March of Consequently, the analysis also includes post-1994 data as well as any corrections or updates made by the BDUSC to their database (after 1980) Data Periodicity The data in the report is provided by occurring biennially on even years (e.g., 1790, 1792, 1794, etc.). The comparable data is provided by. The two data sets correspond as shown in the table below: Election () () From the first to the second 1790 #1 ( ) From the second to the third 1792 #2 ( ) From the third to the fourth 1794 #1 ( ) 2.4. Nominal Data qualifies the Sought Reelection data as nominal due to the inadequacy of the source data (for both the and data sets). As currently comprised, the Sought Reelection totals only include those instances where the Representative s reelection intent is explicitly indicated by the source biographical material. There are a significant number of instances where the incumbent s decision (regarding whether or not to seek reelection) is not provided by the biographical information. Therefore, the actual number who sought reelection is likely to be materially larger. 5 4 The citation in the Report attributes the Roster to Carroll McKibbin and the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR), ICPSR study number For a full explanation, see: Reelection Rates of Incumbents in the U. S. House ( QHA #7 Supplement

6 Comparison of and Data and Analytical Results Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 ional Year CONSTITUTION % 69.2% 64.8% 65.1% 65.1% 56.6% 69.8% 73.2% 69.7% 67.6% 63.4% 67.8% 64.6% 61.8% 61.3% 59.4% 55.8% 49.5% 61.5% 69.9% 63.8% 62.8% 58.3% 66.2% -1.5% 7.4% 3.5% 5.7% 9.3% 7.1% 8.3% 3.3% 5.9% 4.8% 5.1% 1.6% % 42.9% 62.3% 60.4% 61.3% 53.8% 49.3% 69.0% 68.3% 63.4% 58.7% 58.5% 39.0% 60.0% 54.7% 56.6% 49.1% 45.4% 66.9% 66.2% 61.3% 57.0% 0.0% 3.8% 2.3% 5.7% 4.7% 4.7% 3.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 1.7% 58.5% 69.2% 62.9% 60.4% 61.3% 53.8% 66.0% 69.0% 68.3% 63.4% 59.1% 58.7% 58.5% 59.4% 60.0% 54.7% 56.6% 49.1% 60.4% 66.9% 66.2% 61.3% 57.0% 58.7% 0.0% 9.8% 2.9% 5.7% 4.7% 4.7% 5.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.1% 92.8% 94.2% 95.0% 94.6% 94.2% 98.0% 93.8% 93.8% 86.6% 90.5% 97.6% 96.9% 93.7% 95.2% 98.1% 95.5% 95.0% 98.9% 93.5% 92.0% 84.7% -90.5% 2.4% 0.2% -0.9% -1.0% -3.1% -0.9% -0.8% -0.9% 0.3% 1.8% 1.9%

7 Comparison of and Data and Analytical Results ional Year Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar % 42.7% 60.7% 62.9% 68.3% 69.5% 71.4% 70.4% 68.1% 63.4% 55.8% 36.6% 54.5% 55.7% 60.2% 67.1% 67.3% 67.4% 65.1% 60.7% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 7.2% 8.1% 2.4% 4.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.7% 46.2% 54.1% 36.1% 54.3% 52.2% 54.0% 61.5% 63.8% 56.3% 61.0% 46.2% 54.9% 32.8% 51.4% 48.4% 50.2% 60.6% 63.4% 56.3% 59.2% 0.0% -0.8% 3.3% 2.9% 3.8% 3.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 1.9% 54.4% 36.3% 55.2% 52.1% 61.8% 61.5% 63.8% 56.3% 61.0% 50.7% 54.9% 32.8% 51.4% 48.4% 57.2% 60.6% 63.4% 56.3% 59.2% 50.2% -0.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.7% 4.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 1.8% 0.5% 87.6% 84.6% 91.0% 82.9% 90.5% 88.5% 89.5% 80.0% 89.7% 80.0% 88.2% 84.5% 91.3% 82.4% 90.7% 89.0% 90.0% 80.5% 89.4% 79.7% -0.6% 0.1% -0.3% 0.5% -0.2% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% 0.3% 0.3%

8 Comparison of and Data and Analytical Results ional Year Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar % 61.8% 65.7% 64.9% 37.2% 60.5% 52.0% 53.0% 56.0% 51.3% 68.7% 57.7% 60.1% 61.3% 35.7% 58.2% 49.4% 51.5% 52.9% 49.1% 4.6% 4.1% 5.6% 3.6% 1.5% 2.3% 2.6% 1.5% 3.1% 2.2% % 58.5% 50.4% 49.6% 53.7% 26.0% 48.9% 43.9% 42.2% 41.8% 44.6% 56.7% 48.1% 48.8% 52.5% 26.0% 48.4% 43.9% 42.4% 41.6% 0.4% 1.8% 2.3% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% -0.2% 0.2% 58.8% 50.6% 49.6% 53.7% 24.0% 48.9% 45.3% 42.6% 41.8% 36.2% 56.7% 47.9% 48.8% 52.5% 24.0% 48.4% 43.9% 42.6% 41.6% 35.6% 2.1% 2.7% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 80.1% 81.9% 75.5% 82.8% 64.4% 80.7% 87.1% 80.3% 74.6% 70.6% 81.1% 81.7% 76.3% 82.9% 63.7% 79.3% 86.8% 80.2% 77.0% 71.3% -1.0% 0.2% -0.8% -0.1% 0.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% -2.4% -0.7%

9 Comparison of and Data and Analytical Results ional Year Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar % 67.5% 66.7% 63.2% 56.6% 73.1% 72.7% 61.3% 67.9% 70.4% 57.6% 67.5% 63.5% 44.8% 49.0% 71.4% 66.5% 61.9% 63.8% 66.1% 0.9% 0.0% 3.2% 18.4% 7.6% 1.7% 6.2% -0.6% 4.1% 4.3% 35.9% 38.0% 50.9% 67.8% 44.5% 38.5% 53.6% 47.5% 50.6% 49.4% 35.5% 38.0% 50.9% 49.2% 35.0% 28.6% 40.5% 46.7% 51.0% 47.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 9.5% 9.8% 13.1% 0.8% -0.4% 1.6% 38.0% 50.8% 50.4% 46.5% 38.5% 53.8% 61.8% 51.7% 49.4% 51.8% 38.0% 50.9% 48.9% 34.9% 29.0% 40.5% 46.7% 51.0% 47.7% 51.4% 0.0% -0.1% 1.5% 11.6% 9.5% 13.3% 15.1% 0.7% 1.7% 0.4% 65.0% 75.3% 75.6% 73.6% 68.0% 73.7% 85.0% 84.3% 72.7% 73.7% 65.0% 75.9% 75.8% 76.9% 69.8% 71.9% 86.3% 86.0% 74.2% 76.2% 0.0% -0.6% -0.2% -3.3% -1.8% 1.8% -1.3% -1.7% -1.5% -2.5%

10 Comparison of and Data and Analytical Results ional Year Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar % 72.9% 69.3% 78.5% 70.6% 76.0% 75.7% 77.2% 78.5% 79.5% 64.9% 68.5% 66.7% 76.6% 66.6% 70.6% 74.7% 76.3% 72.8% 76.4% 3.2% 4.4% 2.6% 1.9% 4.0% 5.4% 1.0% 0.9% 5.7% 3.1% % 39.4% 52.6% 55.3% 64.5% 45.8% 58.2% 60.6% 61.6% 53.9% 42.8% 39.0% 52.2% 54.3% 63.8% 45.2% 57.8% 60.3% 63.1% 53.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% -1.4% 0.9% 39.4% 52.7% 55.3% 64.5% 50.8% 58.1% 60.6% 62.8% 54.1% 62.6% 39.0% 52.2% 54.3% 63.8% 50.2% 57.8% 60.3% 63.1% 53.0% 62.3% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% -0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 57.8% 72.3% 79.8% 82.2% 72.0% 76.5% 80.1% 81.3% 68.8% 78.8% 57.2% 73.9% 79.8% 81.9% 71.6% 78.6% 80.0% 81.3% 68.5% 79.0% 0.6% -1.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% -2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% -0.2%

11 Comparison of and Data and Analytical Results ional Year Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar % 80.7% 84.6% 84.9% 83.2% 87.6% 86.8% 90.5% 86.4% 78.4% 71.9% 75.7% 81.0% 79.7% 80.5% 84.6% 82.7% 88.8% 85.0% 83.7% 3.9% 5.0% 3.6% 5.2% 2.7% 3.0% 4.1% 1.7% 1.4% -5.3% 58.4% 50.4% 58.8% 70.0% 75.1% 66.6% 78.5% 74.4% 79.3% 61.1% 58.1% 50.0% 58.8% 69.7% 73.9% 65.8% 77.7% 73.6% 78.3% 68.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% -6.9% 50.6% 58.8% 70.0% 75.1% 72.0% 78.5% 75.4% 79.3% 68.0% 64.4% 50.0% 58.8% 69.7% 73.9% 71.1% 77.7% 73.6% 78.3% 68.0% 70.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 1.8% 1.0% 0.0% -6.1% 66.7% 72.9% 82.8% 88.4% 86.5% 89.6% 86.9% 87.6% 78.7% 82.1% 65.4% 75.0% 82.9% 89.2% 86.7% 89.3% 87.1% 87.4% 78.5% 82.0% 1.3% -2.1% -0.1% -0.8% -0.2% 0.3% -0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

12 Comparison of and Data and Analytical Results ional Year Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar % 91.9% 89.4% 88.5% 88.3% 92.2% 93.1% 92.9% 93.6% 90.1% 83.1% 91.1% 86.2% 85.2% 85.8% 88.9% 92.5% 90.9% 89.7% 86.9% 2.9% 0.8% 3.2% 3.3% 2.5% 3.3% 0.6% 2.0% 3.9% 3.2% % 68.7% 80.7% 75.6% 72.2% 69.9% 82.1% 86.4% 83.7% 80.5% 63.7% 68.5% 80.7% 75.2% 71.3% 69.9% 81.8% 87.1% 83.0% 79.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.2% -0.7% 0.7% 1.4% 68.7% 80.7% 75.6% 72.2% 69.9% 82.1% 86.4% 83.7% 80.5% 62.3% 68.5% 80.7% 75.2% 71.3% 69.9% 81.8% 87.1% 83.0% 79.1% 62.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.3% -0.7% 0.7% 1.4% 0.2% 79.9% 87.8% 84.6% 81.6% 79.2% 89.0% 92.8% 90.1% 86.0% 69.1% 79.5% 87.8% 84.5% 81.5% 79.5% 88.8% 92.7% 89.8% 86.0% 68.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%

13 Comparison of and Data and Analytical Results ional Year Mar-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan % 89.2% 92.4% 93.6% 90.8% 93.1% 91.5% 91.9% 91.9% 88.0% 87.2% 87.5% 90.0% 89.5% 87.4% 90.0% 88.6% 89.1% 90.3% 86.7% 2.0% 1.7% 2.4% 4.1% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9% 2.8% 1.6% 1.3% 62.3% 74.7% 78.2% 73.1% 83.0% 75.4% 82.1% 75.4% 72.9% 81.9% 62.1% 74.7% 77.9% 73.3% 82.8% 75.6% 81.8% 75.6% 72.9% 83.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% -0.2% 0.2% -0.2% 0.2% -0.2% 0.0% -1.3% 74.7% 78.2% 73.1% 83.0% 75.4% 82.1% 75.4% 72.9% 84.2% 84.4% 74.7% 77.9% 73.3% 82.8% 75.6% 81.8% 75.6% 72.9% 83.2% 81.4% 0.0% 0.3% -0.2% 0.2% -0.2% 0.3% -0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 83.8% 87.6% 79.1% 88.7% 83.0% 88.1% 82.4% 79.3% 90.5% 91.0% 83.3% 87.6% 79.0% 88.5% 83.0% 88.1% 82.9% 79.3% 90.5% 90.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%

14 Comparison of and Data and Analytical Results ional Year Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan % 94.3% 91.0% 92.7% 92.9% 91.3% 94.5% 94.0% 92.2% 89.7% 92.3% 93.6% 88.7% 91.4% 89.5% 89.8% 92.8% 93.0% 90.3% 88.0% 1.3% 0.7% 2.3% 1.3% 3.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.9% 1.7% % 86.9% 89.4% 81.5% 86.6% 84.6% 79.1% 83.2% 91.0% 87.1% 81.4% 87.1% 89.4% 81.4% 85.8% 84.6% 79.1% 83.2% 91.0% 87.1% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 87.1% 89.4% 81.8% 86.2% 84.6% 79.1% 83.2% 91.0% 87.1% 83.9% 87.1% 89.4% 81.4% 85.8% 84.2% 79.1% 83.2% 91.0% 87.1% 84.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2% 93.1% 94.6% 89.9% 92.6% 91.5% 86.6% 88.1% 96.8% 94.5% 93.6% 93.1% 94.9% 90.1% 92.4% 91.5% 86.4% 88.3% 96.8% 94.5% 93.6% 0.0% -0.3% -0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

15 Comparison of and Data and Analytical Results ional Year Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan % 88.3% 87.6% 91.5% 90.3% 94.0% 90.1% 94.0% 93.3% 84.6% 88.5% 86.8% 86.8% 90.0% 88.5% 93.4% 89.7% 92.7% 91.4% 83.4% 1.4% 1.5% 0.8% 1.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.4% 1.3% 1.9% 1.2% 83.9% 78.9% 84.4% 82.3% 83.0% 81.4% 89.7% 88.5% 92.4% 89.7% 84.1% 78.9% 84.6% 82.3% 83.0% 81.4% 90.1% 88.5% 92.2% 89.9% -0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.2% -0.2% 78.9% 84.6% 82.3% 83.0% 81.4% 90.1% 88.5% 92.4% 89.7% 74.7% 78.9% 84.6% 82.3% 83.0% 81.4% 90.1% 88.5% 92.2% 89.9% 74.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.2% 0.0% 87.7% 95.8% 93.7% 90.7% 90.1% 95.4% 98.2% 98.3% 96.0% 88.3% 87.7% 96.1% 93.5% 91.1% 90.1% 95.4% 98.0% 98.3% 96.3% 88.3% 0.0% -0.3% 0.2% -0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% -0.3% 0.0%

16 Comparison of and Data and Analytical Results ional Year Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan % 87.3% 87.0% 90.5% 1.4% 92.2% 90.3% 92.0% % 79.8% 74.7% 80.2% 83.0% 0.0% -0.5% 90.8% 90.6% 87.6% 90.8% 79.8% 80.2% -0.4% 83.0% 90.8% 90.6% 87.6% 90.8% 89.8% 90.4% -0.6% 94.3% 98.3% 97.8% 95.7% 97.8%