Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers Crowned No. 1 in Jaws' QB Countdown Series

Transcription

1 July 10, 2012 Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers Crowned No. 1 in Jaws' QB Countdown Series ESPN s 30-part Jaws' QB Countdown series concluded today during the 9 a.m. ET edition of SportsCenter as 2011 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers was unveiled as Jaworski s No. 1 quarterback. Since June 11, NFL analyst and noted film room guru Ron Jaworski has examined each of the league s veteran starting quarterbacks and Tim Tebow in the daily series. The three-minute segments -- produced by the NFL Matchup team at NFL Films aired daily throughout the past month on NFL Live (4 p.m., ESPN), NFL32 (6 p.m., ESPN2) and other editions of SportsCenter. Below are transcribed comments from Jaworski s individual assessments of the 30 NFL veteran quarterbacks. Jaws QB Countdown Series Rankings: No. 30 Tim Tebow, New York Jets No. 29 Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars No. 28 Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings No. 27 Matt Flynn, Seattle Seahawks No. 26 Matt Moore, Miami Dolphins No. 25 Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals No. 24 Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills No. 23 Mark Sanchez, New York Jets No. 22 Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs No. 21 Carson Palmer, Oakland Raiders No. 20 Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams No. 19 Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals No. 18 Matt Hasselbeck, Tennessee Titans No. 17 Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers No. 16 Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers No. 15 Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers No. 14 No. 13 No. 12 No. 11 No. 10 No. 9 No. 8 No. 7 No. 6 No. 5 No. 4 No. 3 No. 2 No. 1 Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions Matt Schaub, Houston Texans Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers Eli Manning, New York Giants Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos Tom Brady, New England Patriots Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers No. 1 Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: Drum roll, please! Here it is. My No. 1 quarterback, no surprise, it s Aaron Rodgers. Very few quarterbacks in NFL history have had Rodgers exceptional combination of velocity and accuracy, elite arm strength and pin-point ball location. Was there any better example of that than this 3rd and 10, fourth-quarter throw in Super Bowl XLV? You know what I love most about that throw? Rodgers instinctive willingness to pull the trigger. He made it because he knew he could make it. One critical measure of high-level play is the ability to execute versus the blitz. Rodgers rating in 2011 was 136, easily the best in the NFL. He was outstanding beating the man coverage that you primarily see with blitz. Again, a function of his accuracy, or as I ve said many times, ball location. Rodgers also defeated the blitz with his movement and his extraordinary ability to throw on the run. No quarterback delivers on the move as well as Rodgers velocity and accuracy. There s a larger, more significant issue that speaks to Rodgers greatness. He can beat the defense even when the defense wins, whether it s blitz or a three-man pressure with eight in coverage. The Panthers dropped eight in coverage. Rodgers was not comfortable within the progression of the play. The defense won early in the down. Rodgers extended the play. He broke down the discipline of the coverage. He beat the defense late in the down with a downfield throw. Again, the ability to drive the ball on the move down the field, that s a rare trait. Add running ability to Rodgers special throwing skillset and you have the most physically-gifted quarterback in the league. Numerous times last season, I saw Rodgers defeat a predominant NFL c overage, man-under, two-deep, with his recognition and running. The man coverage undercut the routes and there was help over the top. The coverage won. A perfectly-executed coverage concept still resulted in an explosive 25-yard run. Aaron Rodgers is my No. 1 quarterback. He has all the attributes that I love: accuracy, velocity, movement, toughness. Those attributes lead to elite play and wins. He s won two out of every three starts and a Super Bowl championship. No. 2 Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: Alright folks, I m excited! Now we re getting down to it. My second-ranked quarterback entering the 2012 season is Drew Brees. Brees is the only quarterback in NFL history with two seasons in which he completed more than 70 percent of his passes. Most people use the word accuracy. With Brees, it s really all about ball location.

2 No quarterback is as consistently precise with his throws as Brees. Throughout his Saints career, Brees has thrown the seam routes as well as any quarterback in the NFL. In fact, those vertical seams have been a foundation of the Saints passing game, especially effective in scoring territory. There s slug-o, slant-and-go at the top of the screen with Marques Colston running the seam from the slot. It s a staple Saints route combination. And Brees is a master at his precise timing. Brees is not a power thrower. He does not have top-level arm strength, although his arm is better than many think. But his touch and his accuracy, especially on deep throws, is outstanding. Brees sets the ball right on the receiver s hands. He does not just throw to his receiver; he hits a smaller, more defined point. It s simple math. The margin of error decreases the smaller the target at which you aim. Brees controls his throws better than any quarterback in the NFL. This touchdown against the Panthers showed Brees at his best. It looked like an inaccurate throw with Colston bailing him out. A closer look reveals another example of Brees exact ball location. Colston was aligned in the inside slot. He ran the seam. Again, scoring territory. Brees throw had to beat two defenders: the dropping linebacker and the deep safety. It was a very small area in which to place the ball so that only Colston could make a play. Brees last three seasons have been the most accurate stretch any quarterback has strung together in NFL history. What have I always said is the most overlooked element of quarterbacking? Accuracy. Brees possesses many attributes of high-level quarterbacking. But there s no question that his consistent success over time has been mostly a function of his remarkable ball control. No. 3 Tom Brady, New England Patriots: Number three on my big board entering the 2012 season is Tom Brady. Brady is outstanding in so many areas, but what really stands out is his total command in the pocket. Few quarterbacks in NFL history move within the pocket better than Tom Brady. Pocket movement is an essential attribute to play NFL quarterback at a consistently-high level. Think of it this way: the ability to move within an area no larger than the approximate size of a boxing ring. Sometimes it s a strain, just a step here or a step there. Other times, it s more pronounced. The corollary, and it s equally as important, you must maintain your downfield focus while you re moving. You cannot look at the rush. It s a far more important trait than running out of the pocket. I don t think I ve ever seen a more comfortable pocket quarterback than Brady. There have been times over the years he s literally been a statue in the pocket static, stationary, motionless. I can tell you from experience that s a rare trait. Everything is happening very fast. The ability to slow down your body like that, that s remarkable. Another attribute that Brady has mastered is controlling the game at the line of scrimmage. Brady is outstanding at the subtle nuances of quarterback play. It s a highly-disciplined craft, and Brady has expertly refined the small details. His ability to immediately locate mismatches in man coverage, like Wes Welker on a linebacker, and to move defenders in zone coverage is as good as it gets. Manipulating and controlling the defense is advanced quarterbacking. Here, Brady read the cover 2. He had Deion Branch running the dig route. He had to get this linebacker out of the passing lane. He pumped to Rob Gronkowski. That s all it took. The linebacker moved and the window opened. I know this term is overused at times, but when I plug in a tape of Brady, I know I am watching a professional quarterback in every single way. I m not necessarily a big stat guy, but how about this? In Brady s last four full seasons now remember, he missed the 2008 season with an injury he has thrown 153 touchdown passes and only 37 interceptions. Brady is number three on my big board right now, but he could easily move up to number one. No. 4 Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos: No. 4 on my Big Board is Peyton Manning. Now I know he missed an entire season but I am confident he will return at an elite level. I have never seen a quarterback defeat the defense before the ball is snapped better than Peyton Manning. No quarterback controls the game at the line of scrimmage as well as Manning. Instant recall and application from the classroom to the field, that s Manning s game. The Colts rarely shifted or motioned. Manning wanted the defense set, static. He trusted he could beat them mentally before the snap and physically after the snap. It will be the same in Denver. This offseason the focus has been the Broncos coaches learning Manning s playbook. In his last two seasons with the Colts, 2009 and 2010, Manning dropped back more than any quarterback in the NFL, and he was sacked the fewest times. The result: both his pre-snap brilliance and the most finely-calibrated internal clock I have ever seen. One element of Manning s play that is rarely talked about is his ability to avoid press ure, most often with subtle movements. A touchdown he threw in 2007 has always stuck in my mind.

3 (Note: video shows long touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne against the Panthers) There was no better example of pocket mobility: moving in response to pressure, maintaining downfield focus, and then resetting and delivering. Manning dropped it in the bucket, but that was a very difficult throw. Often overlooked is Manning s ability to break down a defense calling a running play. We know he recognizes fronts, coverage, and he understands when a run call is the correct call. Here was the pre-snap look for Manning: two deep safeties, six defenders in the box. There was no box defender outside the tight end. The corner and the safety were not primary run-support players. They were too deep. Manning recognized the front and the coverage perfectly. The running call beat the scheme of the defense. I ll be looking closely at two factors with Manning: can he still make those outside throws, those deep comeback throws that he was so good at, and can he drive the ball at the intermediate and deeper levels. Now I believe he will. I expect him to have an outstanding season with the Broncos. No. 5 Eli Manning, New York Giants: We begin the top-five of my quarterback Big Board. It starts with Eli Manning. You know where I saw significant improvement in Manning last season? Progression-reading. Was there any better example than the biggest play in Super Bowl XLVI? You will not see a better throw in a critical situation. So much went into that game-changing fourth quarter completion. It began before the snap. Manning read the cover 2 defense. The initial reading progression was to the right, the two wide receiver side. You can see when Manning took the snap he immediately looked that way. When he hit his plant foot, the routes were not defined. There was no throw. The backside route was Mario Manningham on the fade. It was the safety, not the corner, Eli had to beat to make that throw. He processed all this instantaneously, and without any hesitation turned it loose. Pre-snap recognition. Progression reading. Subtle pocket movement. Willingness to pull the trigger. Precise ball location. You saw many of the attributes demanded to play at an elite level. Another play that jumped out was this touchdown in the Wild Card game. Again, I love the progression reading. Manningham was Eli s third read. The play was designed to go to Hakeem Nicks on the inside fade off the fake bubble screen. The safety took that away. Manning then looked to Victor Cruz on the vertical route from the opposite slot. Then he came to Manningham on the post. That s great pocket command. Again, look at the pinpoint accuracy. There was another element to Manning s game in which he showed considerable improvement in 2011: the ability to extend plays outside the pocket. Manning made some big throws when forced to move. When you watch every play, you really get a good feel for a player. Manning is one of the smartest, most aware quarterbacks in the NFL. His development over the last three or four years has been steady and consistent. He is now one of the top-five quarterbacks in the NFL. No. 6 Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers: At No. 6, big Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger is the strongest quarterback in the NFL. He not only extends plays with movement out of the pocket, but also with his natural strength IN the pocket. He s barn strong. Remember this play in 2008? There s not another quarterback who makes it. (Note: video shows scramble and completed pass in game against Jaguars.) It was a snapshot from Roethlisberger s career portfolio. What he s capable of physically and the competitiveness with which he plays, especially in the fourth quarter. At times there s a make it up as you go style to Roethlisberger s game. Here s what Roethlisberger does not get enough credit for: his ability to make throws consistently from the pocket. I charted all 60 of his 20-plus yard completions in Only five came outside the pocket. In fact, time and time again he showed one of the most central attributes necessary to play at a high level in the NFL: the willingness to look down the gun barrel and deliver the football. This throw against the Bengals was a great example. There was a free rusher from Ben s front side. He saw him. He drove a tight throw into a small window. Roethlisberger is really more of a finesse thrower with power than a pure arm-strength passer. That touchdown came with three tight ends on the field. (Note: video shows Mike Wallace catch against Ravens) It was well-designed. Heath Miller attacked and threatened the back -side safety with his crossing route. Mike Wallace ran away from the front-side safety. In 2011, Roethlisberger was most effective out of multiple tight end personnel. He completed almost 73 percent with nine of his 21 touchdowns. His quarterback rating was 125. That was the shot-play personnel package.

4 I have seen a lot of growth from Roethlisberger in recent seasons. Once undisciplined and inconsistent in the pocket, he is now much improved. At No. 6 on my Big Board, Roethlisberger s on the cusp of becoming elite. No. 7 Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers: No. 7 on my big board is one of my favorite quarterbacks in the league, Philip Rivers. You spend five minutes with Rivers and you know he s a football junkie. His preparation and his understanding of both offense and opposing defenses is second to none. (Note: Showing video from game against Raiders ) That touchdown to Antonio Gates was a concise resume of Rivers: pre-snap recognition and post-snap execution. (Note: Showing video from game against Lions ) Again, Rivers recognized the blitz before the snap, and moved his (running) back across the formation to account for it. But, the inside stunt got clean pressure. That s an NFL throw right there. I have studied Rivers very closely in his six years as the Chargers starter. I ve reached this conclusion: he is the toughest pocket quarterback in the NFL. He will stand firm in the face of pressure and deliver the football. He has remarkable downfield focus in the eye of the storm. Two other elements of Rivers game always stand out on film: he throws the deep ball as well as any quarterback in the league; he is also an outstanding progression reader. Here the progression was Malcolm Floyd on the corner, or seven route, Antonio Gates on the crosser ; the third route was Vincent Jackson on the dig. Floyd got pushed too far inside on his release, so when Rivers hit his plant step, the timing of the routes was not coordinated. Gates and Floyd now were too close together. That was not a clear picture for Philip. He came to Jackson on the back side of the read. Two other points on the play: even though Gates, the second read, was not available, Rivers knew his crosser occupied the middle linebacker. And Rivers processed all this information with the front-side pressure closing down the pocket. Now that s great stuff. There s no question Rivers threw too many interceptions last season. I believe that was the exception. It won t happen again in Rivers has played at an elite level before, and I fully expect he will this season. That s why he s No. 7 on my Big Board. No. 8 Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears: No. 8 on my big board is Jay Cutler. Physically, Cutler is as talented as any quarterback in the NFL. He s a power thrower with good accuracy. He has deceptive athleticism and movement. Not many bring the skill t hat Cutler has. This was 2006, his rookie year. When I saw this, I said, Wow. Pressure in his face, moving to his left, 65 yards in the ai r. (Note: video shows long touchdown pass play to Javon Walker in Broncos-Cardinals game) Cutler is a big-time arm talent. One part of his game that I really like is his ability to step up in the pocket and drive the ball at the intermediat e and deeper levels. He s an aggressive and confident downfield thrower. There s no hesitation at all. He turns it loose. He intuitively understands the NFL passing game. He knows when you get man coverage it s on the receivers to win. Cutler s going to throw the ball. Cutler has shown he can take over games. He did that against the Eagles on Monday Night last year. I remember it very well. When he went down after the Bears 10 th game, the offense crumbled. I don t deal in perception. Hey, I deal in reality. You always hear me talk about arm strength. Watch this throw. It s a deep dig versus cover 2. You have to drive that in there with velocity. You ll see what I mean from the all 22. It s Tampa 2 with the middle linebacker running the seam with the slot receiver. Johnny Knox ran the dig. This is a powerful throw. (Note: video is from Bears-Saints game) A couple of things about Cutler that still need to be addressed: his ball location can be a little erratic at times, and his redzone efficiency must improve. Last season was his best in four years. He did not throw a red zone interception, but in the three previous seasons Cutler threw 13.That is not acceptable. Overall, I m absolutely wowed by Cutler s ability to throw the football, even going back to his college career at Vanderbilt. Sure, he s exhibited some inconsistency in his six years in the NFL. He must clean up some poor decision-making tendencies. Of course he has to do that. But, if he can he will move into my top five. No. 9 Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens: The ninth-ranked quarterback on my big board is Joe Flacco. In his four seasons, Flacco has won 69 percent of his regular-season starts. How about this? He's started nine playoff games, eight of them on the road, and he's won five of them. Now that's impressive.

5 Arm strength that's Flacco's number one attribute. I get so tired of hearing how arm strength is overrated. It's far more important than people think. Look at this throw. You know why Flacco made that throw? Because he knew he could. He has the strongest arm in the NFL. And he has an aggressive, confident throwing mentality. The element always overlooked by those who minimize arm strength is the willingness of quarterbacks like Flacco to pull the trigger. Few recognize that because there is no quantifiable means by which to evaluate throws that are not made by quarterbacks with lesser arm strength. It's all about dimensions. Flacco gives you the ability to attack all areas of the field at any point in the game. This touchdown came in the Ravens go zone, about the 40-yard line. It came out of base personnel and featured stretc h- run action with Flacco rolling away from flow. Here's the concept: Flacco has to beat this safety, and (Baltimore Ravens wide receiver) Torrey Smith has to win against the other safety. Flacco is an excellent deep-ball thrower. When he's that clean delivering the ball, he won't miss. I saw the same play against the Rams. It just came out of different personnel and a different formation. There are very few quarterbacks in the NFL with the pure throwing ability of Joe Flacco. The reason Joe is number nine and not higher is his production does not always match his skillset. If he can become more consistent in 2012, he will move up in my quarterback rankings. No. 10 Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys: Alright, folks. Time to get excited! We begin the top 10 on my quarterback big board. Number 10 is Tony Romo. It seems as if Romo has been the Cowboys starter for like a decade! The reality is he s only played four full seasons. I remember Romo s outstanding performance against the Redskins on Monday Night Football. That s a tough defense to play against. A lot of movement before the snap and a lot of blitz. This 20-yard completion to (Dallas Cowboys wide receiver) Dez Bryant on 3rd and 9 showed Romo at his best. He recognized the blitz. He set the protection. He held his cadence to minimize Washington s aggressiveness. And how about the anticipation versus man-to-man coverage? Right here, he started his delivery. Bryant was still running vertically. And look at the ball location: to the outside, away from the inside leverage corner. That was advanced quarterbacking, folks. There s an instinctive awareness to Romo s play that I ve always liked. He has always been able to move within the pocket. And he s also very good extending plays outside the pocket, especially moving to his left. That's not easy for a high-handed quarterback to do. Watch him get his front shoulder turned and his feet balanced with his back foot planted. That s critical. As I reevaluated Romo for this project, what jumped out was his intuitive feel to hold and manipulate safeties. When I talk about eye discipline, this is what I mean. Romo s focus to the right controlled the deep safety. He knew he wanted (Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason) Witten on the seam, but he had to keep Earl Thomas away from the throw. I ve always sensed the perception of Romo was that he turned the ball over too much. That is dead wrong. In his last two full seasons, he s only thrown 19 interceptions in almost 1,100 attempts. That, my friends, is outstanding. Romo is without question a top 10 quarterback. No. 11 Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: Number 11 on my quarterback big board is Matt Ryan. You know what I really appreciate about Ryan? He has improved in each of his four years as the Falcons starter. How about this, folks? He s won 69 percent of his NFL starts. That s pretty good! Ryan is a timing and rhythm passer. He hits his back foot, and the ball comes out. First down was the explosive play down for Ryan. He had 24 completions of 20 yards or more. That touchdown was Ryan at his best: play-action, gets his head around quickly, looks to (Atlanta Falcons wide receiver) Julio Jones on the post, sees the corner s back turned and immediately knows he has (Atlanta Falcons wide receiver) Roddy White on the crosser. I also like Ryan s natural feel for anticipating throws. This touchdown to Jones was a great snapshot. Right here, Ryan pulled the trigger. That, folks, is unbelievable anticipation. In 2011, Ryan was given more responsibility at the line of scrimmage. The ability to control the game before the snap is an increasingly-important attribute in today s NFL. Ryan is right on the edge of being a top-10 NFL quarterback. I love the way he s engaged in every single game. But there s still one element of Ryan s game that needs work. He must become more consistent in what I call a muddy

6 pocket, with bodies flying around him. Right now, he needs that comfortable cradle, that functional space. If he improves in that area, he ll crack my top 10. No. 12 Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Vick is my 12 th -ranked quarterback. This offseason is the most important of his career. It's the first time since 2006 with the Falcons that he will go through the OTAs and training camp as the starting quarterback. There is not another quarterback in the NFL with Vick's dynamic combination of passing skills and explosive running ability. There are some plays only Vick can make. The issue I have always had with Vick has been his willingness to run; to play the position outside of the pocket, outside of the structure of the offense. There's no question he'll always make plays, but he also leaves throws on the field. This play is a great example of what I'm talking about. Watch Vick. There's no pass rush pressure. He never planted his back foot and set in the pocket. He had predetermined he was going to run. Look what he missed: (Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver) Jason Avant wide open in the middle. I charted all of Vick's snaps last season. He was taken to the ground more than 11 times per game. You can't play 16 games that way. Vick always reminds me of something my former coach Dick Vermeil says: The problem with quarterbacks who can run is they run! Vick has shown he is capable of throwing the ball exceptionally well from the pocket. His overall throwing skillset can be top five in the league. His objective in 2012 must be to play that way more often. It becomes an availability issue; you can't be an elite NFL quarterback if you can't be counted on every single week. I am really excited to see Michael Vick in A more disciplined player will result in fewer turnovers. I would not be surprised if we're getting ready to see the best year of Vick's 10-year career. No. 13 Matt Schaub, Houston Texans: The 13th-ranked quarterback on my big board is Matt Schaub. Many might not be aware, but Schaub is a 65 percent passer as the Texans' five-year starter with two 4,000-yard seasons. He s at his best in a controlled pass game that features play-action. I did a study going back to Schaub has been among the best in the NFL on first and 10 over the last four years. Two things stood out. First, yards per attempt: consistently above nine. That means Schaub is generating explosive plays. Second, the percentage of first-down throws that produced another first down: Schaub has been in the top five eac h of those four seasons. The Texans offensive foundation is the zone run. The passing game works off that. Like almost all quarterbacks, Schaub must be managed by the schematics of the pass game, as well as the play calling. The late Bill Walsh was a s trong believer in that concept of quarterback manipulation. This play against the Saints is a great example of what I m talking about. The design of the play broke down the defense. First you had the motion by (Houston Texans wide receiver) Andre Johnson across the formation. Notice the ball was snapped before the corner could get lined up. Then you had hard, run-action away from Johnson. That moved the linebackers out of the passing lane. You had Johnson exploding off the line and a clear window for Schaub. Pitch and catch. One critical measurement for a quarterback is consistency. Schaub has been a very stable, measured player in his Texans career. I have always had concerns about his durability. He needs to stay on the field and be accountable for 16 games. No. 14 Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: I remember studying Matthew Stafford when he came out of Georgia in My first impression was this kid can really spin it! In 2011, Stafford played a full season for the first time in three years. That s why he enters 2012 as number 14 on my quarterback big board. This 36-yard touchdown against Kansas City was a one-play summation of Stafford. Just watch this throw from the endzone angle. Velocity. Accuracy. Not many quarterbacks are pulling the trigger and then driving it in. That s big time. You know where arm strength is often a big factor? The red zone. It's a compressed field, and the windows are much, much tighter. Stafford threw 29 red-zone touchdown passes. Only Drew Brees threw more. I remember this one from our Monday Night game. I love the concept designed to beat Brian Urlacher. It was play-action to the left. Again, exploding the myth that you have establish the run for the play-action to have an impact. That s (Detroit Lions tight end) Brandon Pettigrew. This is another arm-strength throw.

7 Another full season with similar production, and there's no question Stafford is a top 10 quarterback. He's an elite arm talent. I just need to see durability and performance over a longer period of time. No. 15 Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: No one is a great quarterback in the NFL because of the way they run. While Cam Newton is certainly a spectacular athlete, that's not why he's number 15 on my big board after his rookie season. He played very well from the pocket. I saw it week one against the Arizona Cardinals. This was the second series of the game. It was 3rd and 7. Newton recognized the blitz, and he changed the protection to account for it. I must have watched this play 15 times. The blitz was well-disguised. I saw no indicator right here that overload blitz pressure from the backside was coming. Yet Newton saw something, and he slid his offensive line to that side. One essential attribute to reach elite status is the mental ability to recognize and defeat the defense before the snap of the ball. What also stood out was Newton's patience in the pocket and his ability to sit on his back foot and cut it loose. He made seam throws that were firm and required arm strength, yet demanded touch. Newton hung in the pocket and delivered without flinching. He was very good in the eye of the storm. This kid is a bigtime talent. He still needs more experience, but the traits are there to be a special passer. It starts with passing, but his ability to break down the defense with his legs gives him an edge like few have ever had. The read option in the red zone is an added dimension that Newton brings. His speed is a decisive factor. One element I ve always talked about discussing Aaron Rodgers is the ability on third down to defeat the man coverage by running. Newton gives you that same quality. That's a real problem for a defense. It limits their coverage concepts. And Newton gets down, out of harm s way. From a skillset standpoint, Newton could easily rank higher than 15 on my big board. He's a top 10 talent. He needs more snaps. One year is not enough. But I can't wait to see him in a few months. No. 16 Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers: My 16 th -ranked quarterback is Alex Smith. Two statistics speak to Smith s play in He threw the fewest passes of any 16-game starter, and he had the lowest interception percentage in the National Football League. Smith was managed brilliantly by first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh perfectly understood his quarterback's strengths and limitations. The majority of Smith's 20-plus-yard completions came on first down, primarily out of base personnel. Play-action was also utilized. The 49ers got a lot of single-high safety coverages. That defined the reads for Smith. Here, he initially looked left; he saw the safety match up to Vernon Davis. He knew he had Michael Crabtree man-to-man on the crosser. The shot plays also came on first and 10; the result of great design, attacking and breaking down anticipated coverages. Again, it was single high. When the safety jumped the crossing route, Smith hit Crabtree over the top. The wheel route was featured in the 49ers pass game. That played to Smith's passing strengths. He throws with excellent touch and consist ent accuracy. I was really impressed with Smith in the playoff win against the Saints. He read the blitz, he was decisive and accurate. He pulled the trigger on the tight window throws. The winning touchdown showed his development as a quarterback. Davis was in the tight slot. Smith's throw had to beat the deep safety to that side. You have to throw it early with great anticipation. Right here, Smith began his delivery. That is as good as it gets, folks. The throw made this touchdown. You know what offensive coaches always emphasize? Run the offense the way it is structured and designed. Alex Smith did that with great efficiency. He's not the most physically gifted and talented thrower in the league, but he played at a very high level in 2011, and I expect the same in No. 17 Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Number 17 on my big board is Josh Freeman. Freeman has the skillset to be a top 10 NFL quarterback. But in 2011, I saw a lot of deficiencies that plague young quarterbacks: poor decision making, lack of confidence. The physical talent is there; the consistency is not, yet. This interception really troubled me. It was in scoring territory in a close game. The play's design work ed. It was a stutte r- go-seam, a red-zone variation of slug-o-seam: pump wide receiver Mike Williams to move the safety, then come back to Kellen Winslow on the short seam. Freeman had what he wanted Winslow inside the other safety; this should have been a touchdown. There were a number of issues here. First, it was the wrong throw. Freeman needed to take Winslow to the back of the end zone. This ball should have been caught a yard from the end line. Second, look at Freeman's delivery. His feet were parallel. There was no pressure in the pocket.

8 In 2011, Freeman threw four red-zone interceptions. No quarterback threw more. It was part of a season in which Freeman took a step back. He struggled all year with his decision making. He tried to make too many throws that were not there. In addition, his ball location was not precise enough. Throws that you have to make became turnovers. Freeman has a lot of work to do, and it begins with the Bucs new coaching staff. Hey, this kid is talented. When I saw him throw live for the first time, I was really impressed. He can spin it as well as just about any quarterback in this league. He needs to focus on the small details, the disciplines of the position. I would expect to see a lot of play-action in It will provide a solid foundation for a young quarterback looking to regain some confidence. I really like Josh Freeman. Not many have his overall skill set. But he's still a work in progress, and there are no guarantees playing the toughest position on the fiel d. That is why he's number 17 in my quarterback rankings. No. 18 Matt Hasselbeck, Tennessee Titans: My 18 th -ranked quarterback is Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck is coming off a 2011 season in which he started all 16 games for only the fourth time in his 13-year NFL career. No quarterback fits the description of savvy veteran better than Hasselbeck. You know where those smarts and awareness really showed up? In the red zone. How about these numbers, folks? Thirteen touchdown passes, no interceptions, a red-zone quarterback rating of 110. Red zone efficiency results from presnap recognition and post-snap validation of past coverage. Hasselbeck saw a 2-shell look before the snap. Two deep safeties. The route combination was four verticals. On his drop, Hasselbeck kept his head and his eyes focused straight down the middle. That kept the deep safety inside the numbers playing Jared Cook's vertical, not (Lavelle) Hawkins. Then he came to Hawkins, saw the corner trailing, and immediately knew he had a touchdown. Manipulation and recognition. One thing Hasselbeck has always done well is throw the ball in the outside void in cover 2. That's one of the most difficult throws. It demands anticipation, touch and accuracy. Those are Hasselbeck's attributes. He has compensated for limited arm strength with excellent anticipation and precise ball location. Look at when he pulls the trigger here, and look where he places it. That's as good as it gets. He recognizes coverages and matchups, like his tight end Jared Cook on a linebacker versus cover 2, and knows quickly and decisively where to go with the football. Hasselbeck in the twilight of his career can still play the position at a very high level. I'm not quite certain, however, that on the opening Sunday of the 2012 season he will be the Titans starting quarterback. No. 19 Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals: Andy Dalton comes in at number 19. The more I evaluated Dalton, the more I liked him. He does have some arm strength limitations, but he compensates very well with his anticipation and his accuracy. That was particularly evident in the red zone. And that is an absolutely critical measure of a quarterback. The numbers were exceptional: 15 touchdowns, no interceptions. Dalton was very effective in the boot action pass game. He did that well at TCU, and his ability to throw accurately on the run transitioned well to the NFL. Anticipation is an essential attribute to play at a high level. It is more important if you are not a power thrower. Dalton was an outstanding anticipation passer. Look at when he began his delivery on this throw. Right here. A.J. Green was still running vertically. That is tremendous. What must supplement anticipation is pinpoint ball location. Dalton was consistently accurate in the short to intermediate areas. He put the ball right in his receiver's hands. As my good friend quarterback coach Terry Shea says, he hits the strike point. Remember, it is the quarterback who is most responsible for run after catch. Overall, Dalton threw with great touch. What also stood out was his willingness to look down the gun barrel, to deliver the football in the face of pressure. You have to do that in the NFL. You will get hit. You still have to make the throws. As I look ahead to the 2012 season, I expect Dalton to improve. The pass game concepts of offensive coordinator Jay Gruden mesh perfectly with Dalton's skill set. I would not be surprised if a year from now Dalton is approaching my top 10. He has a chance to make that kind of jump in one season. No. 20 Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams: Number 20 on my quarterback big board is Sam Bradford. I remember studying him when he came out of Oklahoma in What I really liked was his ability to sit in the pocket on his back foot, then drive through his throws and deliver wi th velocity and accuracy. Then I saw this red-zone throw in his fourth game in his rookie season, and I was even more impressed. Let me show you why that touchdown was so special. The defense dropped eight in coverage. That really squeezes your passing lanes. Here s the throw. That is where Brandon Gibson caught the ball. Bradford delivered it right here. That is rare anticipation, for any quarterback, much less a rookie. There is no question Bradford is a top arm talent. At his best,

9 he is a commanding pocket passer with a compact delivery and a strong arm. He can also get outside the pocket, extend plays and throw accurately on the run, even deep down the field. In 2011, Bradford, with very few exceptions, did not look like the same confident pocket quarterback that I saw as a rookie. He was tentative in the pocket, a function of both erratic offensive line play and receivers that could not win on the outside. But I was troubled by Bradford s increasing tendency to anticipate the rush. I call that cabin fever. And Bradford struggled with that is an important year. The Rams new coaching staff will manage Bradford in a run-first approach that ideally limits risk. But this is the NFL. You have to stand firm in the pocket and deliver the football. Right now, Bradford is a question mark. No. 21 Carson Palmer, Oakland Raiders: Number 21 in my quarterback rankings is Carson Palmer. From , Palmer was among the top three quarterbacks in the league. Things have certainly changed in the last five years. But one thing remains Palmer can still make big-time NFL throws. That touchdown came against a coverage that is now prevalent in the NFL. It's what we call two man, man-to-man across the board with two deep safeties. It's a tough coverage to attack with seam routes. You have to be willing to pull the trigger on tight window throws; that kind of aggressive confidence is part of Palmer's DNA. That's an attribute that I've always liked about Palmer. You can't be tentative and uncertain in the pocket. You have to turn it loose. Now, we know there's a fine line between belief and poor judgment, and Palmer at times crosses that line. But the explosive plays don't come if you don't throw it. This play couldn't show it any better. Look at when Palmer began his delivery, right here. Now look at (Denarius) Moore in relation to the corner. Not many quarterbacks pull the trigger on this play. Palmer had the highest interception percentage of any AFC starting quarterback. Overall, he threw 16 picks. Three came in his first game when he was forced to play before he was ready, after missing all of training camp and the season's first six weeks. (Note: Video shows a pass intercepted by Jon McGraw.) I evaluated all of Palmer's interceptions. As expected, the reasons were many: poor ball location to open receivers, pass rush pressure which led to inaccurate throws, questionable decision making, which just can't happen in the red zone with a veteran quarterback. Overall, Palmer showed some glimpses of what we saw in the past. He remains a pure pocket passer with the arm talent to make outstanding throws. I'm a big Carson Palmer fan, so I am very anxious to see Palmer in He was erratic and inconsistent with his accuracy and his decision making last season. That must improve or he'll remain a middle-of-the-pack quarterback. No. 22 Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs: My 22 nd -rated quarterback is Matt Cassel. Remember, two years ago Cassel led the Chiefs to the AFC West title. He was outstanding that year, with 27 touchdowns and only seven picks. His 2011 season was cut short by injury, but his passing profile remain the same. Cassel is at his best in a managed offense that features run personnel, run formations and the play-action pass game. Play-action primarily gives the quarterback either or defined reads. Cassel is very good in that scenario. This 42-yard completion maps it out perfectly. Steve Breaston was the only split-wide receiver. He ran the deep dig that you just saw. So Cassel had to locate this safety after the run fake. The safety dropped down as part of the rotation to single high. Cassel read it and executed the play s design perfectly. Cassel throws the ball better to the inside digs, hooks and throws like that than he does to the outside. That s the way it is with quarterbacks with limited arm strength. In addition, the deep throws often come on first down. Play-action is almost always featured. As is six- or seven-man pass-protection schemes. This was another safety read for Cassel, coming off play-action. Again, the late rotation to single high; that deep safety play over the top and take away Jonathan Baldwin or sit low to defense Dwayne Bowe s hook route. He sat low. Cassel read it and went to the post. That s good stuff by Matt Cassel. You give Matt Cassel a solid run game, a good offensive line, room in the pocket to deliver the football comfortably, and he can be a very efficient NFL starter. That s what he is. He s a function of the team around him. And he needs those pieces in place working effectively. No. 23 Mark Sanchez, New York Jets: The 23 rd -rated quarterback on my big board is Mark Sanchez. Sanchez is a complementary quarterback. He s at his best working off a strong running game with defined reads. That allows him to get the ball out quickly, within the structure and the timing of the offense. The play-action pass really helps Sanchez, especially out of base-personnel packages.

10 Remember, the Jets offensive foundation is the run, a lot of multiple tight-end sets and normal down-and-distance situations. This 33-yard completion on first and ten was a great example. There were three tight ends on the field. What do you get defensively? A strong safety down in the box, with a single deep safety cheated toward (wide receiver) Santonio Holmes. You get a staple route combination against single high, the post cross. Holmes post route threatened both the corner and the deep safety. With the corner running with Holmes, an entire area was voided. A defined and easy read. Pitch and catch. Sanchez is most effective throwing in the middle of the field, between the numbers. He lacks the arm strength demanded to drive the ball to the outside with the necessary velocity. But he s made some very good seam throws. After three years in the league, Sanchez continues to struggle in two critical areas: decision-making and down-field accuracy. It s why he s No. 23 on my list. When he plants his back foot, doesn t get what he wants and then has to reload, he loses clarity. While Sanchez has been able to throw effectively on the run, when it s designed, he s often reckless and erratic when forced to leave the pocket. The ability to take advantage of shot plays has been a problem. Design big plays in which you get what you want. The Jets shifted Joe McKnight outside the numbers. A linebacker bumped out with him. That s what you anticipated when you game-planned this during the week. You have to hit those throws. Sanchez didn t even give McKnight a chance. Sanchez has shown some very positive attributes that will fit well with Tony Sparano s run-first approach, to his offensive design. But to move up on my big board, Sanchez must improve his coverage recognition and his intermediate to deeper accuracy. Otherwise, he ll remain a player with limitations. No. 24 Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills: "Ryan Fitzpatrick comes in at No. 24. Like all quarterbacks in the twenties on my list, Fitzpatrick has some strengths and some weaknesses. He can be best described as a point guard playing quarterback. He's at his most efficient as a ball distributor, operating predominantly in spread formations. In fact, only two quarterbacks -- Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady -- threw more passes from the shotgun than Fitzpatrick. He coordinated a short, quick passing game that placed a premium on run after catch. "I looked again at the Bills' early-season victory over the Raiders. Fitzpatrick orchestrated as impressive a late-game drive as you'll ever see. There's no question Fitzpatrick can play at a high level, at times, but here's the dose of reality -- As I've studied him, I've really struggled with his inconsistent mechanics. The result: accuracy issues, too many missed opportunities. The ball was badly underthrown. There was a reason for that. Look at Fitzpatrick on his drop. Focus on his feet. He never planted his back foot. He never set. He threw the ball off-balance, falling away. And you know what? He had Steve Johnson wide open on the fade. Johnson ran right by Corey Webster. What should have been an easy touchdown, instead became an interception. "Many factors go into consistent, week-to-week quarterback play. Mechanics are not talked about enough. Ryan Fitzpatrick is very erratic with both his footwork and throwing motion. While there's really a whole lot to like, those problems lead to a ranking of 24 on my quarterback big board." No. 25 Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals: At No. 25 I have Kevin Kolb. Many forget that Kevin went through the 2010 offseason and training camp as the Eagles starting quarterback was not his first year as an NFL starter. And quite honestly, I was a little disappointed in Kolb last year in Arizona. But Kevin has always been very good recognizing pressure and coverages. He s an intelligent quarterback who sees the field very well. It s one reason he was efficient versus the blitz in Kolb read the blitz before the snap. He knew he did not have enough blockers. He had three to block four; the outside rusher could not be accounted for. So Kolb moved away from the pressure to give himself room and time to deliver the ball. He knew he would get hit; that was a big-time throw. When Kolb reads pressure and coverage correctly, he s decisive. He looks like a quality starter. If what he expects is not there, he s prone to sacks and turnovers. In addition, Kolb is not very good outside the pocket. He did not show the ability to effectively extend plays. Entering 2012, Kolb is a pocket quarterback who must sharpen and further develop his pocket skills. That s the objective. One final point I need to make that relates to that Kevin missed too many open receivers. He left far too many plays on the field. I always liked Kevin Kolb as a quarterback. I know he approaches the game the right way is his crossroads season. I would expect to see improvement. But right now, he s in the bottom-third of my quarterback rankings. No. 26 Matt Moore, Miami Dolphins:

11 My 26 th -rated quarterback entering the 2012 season is Matt Moore. I have always liked Moore, ever since I studied him at Oregon State. He ran a pro offense there, and I saw a lot of throws that transitioned well to the NFL. One element I evaluate is how well quarterbacks execute versus the blitz. Moore had the fifth-highest rating in the league in And look at the names ahead of Moore: Rodgers, Brady, Newton, Brees. You kidding me? The play you just saw showed one reason Moore was so effective. It was a five-man pressure. Moore read it before the snap. He knew he had to pick up his tempo and throw it quicker. Right here, he began his delivery. Brian Hartline had not even started the go part of the stop-and-go. That s great anticipation. A couple of other things stood out as I studied Moore on tape. He threw an excellent deep ball with trajectory, hang time and accuracy. While Moore was generally very good, there were a number of deep balls that got away from him, that came out fluttering, that led to some missed opportunities, some touchdowns left on the field. Moore was most effective out of base-personnel packages. He was highly efficient out of two tight end sets, both attacking down the field and at the intermediate levels of the defense. The dominating win against the Chiefs provided a concise profile: Moore was 12 of 15 for 161 yards and three touchdowns out of multiple tight end personnel. Hey, I know the Dolphins selected Ryan Tannehill with the eighth pick in the Draft, but right now, Matt Moore is a better NFL quarterback. There s no question in my mind that Moore could be a rock -solid NFL starter. No. 27 Matt Flynn, Seattle Seahawks: Matt Flynn has started two games in his four-year NFL career. To his credit though, he played well in both, including a record-setting performance at the end of But, make no mistake, Flynn is a projection at this point. That s why he s 27 th on my list. I broke down both of Flynn s starts: New England in 2010 and Detroit last season. What I saw was a timing and rhythm passer who s decisive with his reads and his throws. He was consistently accurate in the short to intermediate areas. He displayed a nice feel in the pocket with some subtle movements, like this slight shoulder roll to manipulate the coverage. (Note: video showed a long touchdown pass play to James Jones against the Patriots). Flynn also showed the ability to get out of the pocket and throw on the run. But the more throws I watched, the more his arm strength lim itations were evident. The fade is not an arm-strength throw. It s more of a touch throw. In fact, I was concerned that his few deep balls lost energy at the back end. They had a tendency to die. This touchdown (Note: against Detroit) came off play-action. And, of course, in Seattle with Marshawn Lynch, I would expect to see a heavier dose of it. But, what have we always known about play-action? You do not have to be a strong running team to execute it effectively. Look at that safety react to the stretch-run action (Note: video from Detroit game). That left Jordy Nelson one-on-one with the corner with no safety help in the deep middle. It was a shock play, a specific call in a specific situation, designed to produce a big play. I believe Flynn can be a successful NFL starter. I m reminded of Bill Walsh and his strong belief that a good coach manipulates the play of his quarterback with his play concepts and his play-calling. That will have to be the case with Flynn in Seattle. No. 28 Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings: My Quarterback Countdown continues with Christian Ponder. I ranked him 28 th entering the 2012 season. There was much to like about Ponder but also much to be cleaned up as he looks to improve upon an uneven rookie year. Two things stood out in his first start. First, his ability in the boot-action pass game. Ponder throws the ball very well on the run; second, his pocket toughness. He was willing to look down the gun-barrel and deliver the ball in the face of pressure. Ponder has many of the attributes I look for when I evaluate quarterbacks. I saw pocket movement, the ability to move within the pocket, maintain downfield focus and deliver the football with accuracy. I also saw the added dimension of getting outside the pocket in response to pressure with the speed to create an explosive gain. And how about this for a rookie quarterback: Ponder s rating was 114, the NFL s best inside the 20. His movement was also a big factor, as was his willingness to make stick throws into those small windows, a necessity in the tight red zone area. As he begins his second season, Ponder needs work as a progression reader. He had a tendency to predetermine some throws, and, in addition, there were too many times he did not recognize the coverage (Note: showing an interception play against the Raiders). His primary read was Percy Harvin on a corner route from the slot. The half-field safety was sitting right there, settled, looking back at Ponder. As a quarterback, you have to be aware of that. That s part of the learning curve for Ponder. I love his skill-set. It s good enough to move in my top 20, but mistakes, especially in the scoring territory, will always have a negative impact on my ranking. I expect Ponder to improve significantly this season. No. 29 Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars: Gabbert started 14 games as a rookie last season with the Jaguars. The kindest way to describe his performance would be uneven. Two plays really stood out as I reevaluated Gabbert this offseason. The first came against the Bengals, his