Valuing Beach Closures: An Application to the Texas Gulf Coast
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1 Valuing Beach Closures: An Application to the Texas Gulf Coast George R. Parsons Chris Leggett (IEC) Kevin Boyle (Virginia Tech) Ami Kang Southern Economics Association Meetings November 2007
2 Acknowledgement Funding for this project was provided by the Coastal Response Research Center and the National Park Service 11/19/07 2
3 Purpose & Approach Purpose Value beach closures for damage assessment Monetary and Non-Monetary Terms Apply to Texas Coast with focus on Padre Island National Seashore Approach Random Utility Model Nested & Mixed Logit 11/19/07 3
4 Household Survey Phon -Phone Survey of Beach Use 2001 N = 884 Monthly from May - September Trip data ~ 2700 trips Demographic data Stratified Day & Overnight Monthly and Weekday/Weekend Values 11/19/07 4
5 Study Area Study Area 11/19/07 5
6 Stratification 11/19/07 6
7 65 Beaches Beach Definitions & Characteristic Data Field Trip, State Access Guide, Interviews 11/19/07 7
8 Beach Visits s by Beach (Day Trips) Weighted Visits PINS 20 0 Sabine Pass Galveston Freeport Port South Corpus Lavaca Padre Christi Island 11/19/07 8
9 Issues in Estimation Nested vs. Mixed Logit Nested for Baseline Paper Mixed for Non-Monetary Values Nested Logit Model Sensitivity Geographic Regions Vehicle Free/Gulf Month and Padre Month Interactions Calibration to NPS trips 11/19/07 9
10 Nested Logit Model 11/19/07 10
11 Scenarios for Welfare Analysis Closure 6 Padre Beaches 7 Galveston Beaches Other Advisory/Closure History Red Tide History 11/19/07 11
12 Coefficient Estimates Variable Estimate Coefficients t-statistic Site Characteristics (site utility): Trip Cost Trip Time Trip Time * Income Log Length Gulf access State park Remote Vehicle free Manual cleaning Machine cleaning Rest room Lifeguards Concession No fishing No swimming Red tide history Advisory/Closure history May*padre June*padre July*Padre August*Padre Sept*Padre Individual Characteristics (no-tip utility): No-Trip Constant Weekend Kids Log Age Retired Spanish High School College Graduate School Full Time Job Female Cottage Boat Pool Fishing Equipment June July August September /19/07 12
13 Welfare Estimates Month and Day of Week Total Loss Per Trip Loss Note: Calibration of Trips Number of Trips Displaced Weekday M a y $32,846 $ 2 8 1,168 June 43, ,540 July 53, ,820 August 37, ,333 Septembe r 26, Weekend M a y $103,754 $ 2 8 3,667 June 139, ,849 July 171, ,755 August 114, ,094 Septembe r 85, ,889 11/19/07 13
14 Welfare Estimates (cont.) Month and Day of Week Weekday July 6 Padre Sites Closed Red-Tide History Padre Total Loss $53,360 37,188 Per Trip Loss $ Number of Trips Displaced 1,802 1,365 Advisory-Closure History Padre 27, ,048 8 Galveston Sites Closed 263, ,782 Weekend July 6 Padre Sites Closed Red-Tide History Padre $171, ,483 $ ,755 4,359 Advisory-Closure History Padre 88, ,349 8 Galveston Sites Closed 852, ,259 11/19/07 14
15 Non-Monetary Compensation Non-Monetary vs. Monetary How different Cost of Compensation Measures of Success Kaldor-Hicks % Compensated Candidate Measures Beach cleaning Lifeguards Vehicle Free Rest Rooms 11/19/07 15
16 Hicks-Kardor Index Lifeguard Example Applied Beach Number Percentage of people with full compensation /19/07 Applied Beach number 16 May/Weekend
17 Parting Comments Mixed-Logit with Participants Only Mid-Atlantic Application 1997 & /19/07 17
18 Beach Characteristic Data Mean or % Site Variables of Beaches Beach length (mileage) 5.35 Dichotomous Yes/No Variables: Percent Gulf acce s s Beach is located on the gulf (not bay) 7 4 % State park Beach is part of a state park 6 % Remote Beach has a remote location 3 4 % Vehicle free Vehicles not allowed on beach 4 0 % Manual cleaning Beach is routinely manually cleaned 5 1 % Machine cleani n g Beach is routinely machined cleaned 5 5 % Rest room Restrooms located at beach 5 7 % Lifeguards Lifeguards at beach 26% Concession Concession located at beach 2 3 % No fishing Not listed as a fishing area in 2002 Texas 5 % Beach & Bay Access Guide No swimmi n g Not listed as a swimming area in % Texas Beach & Bay Access Guide Red tide history Beach has a recent history of red tide 1 8 % Advisory/Closure history Beach has a recent history of closures and/or advisories 1 7 % 11/19/07 18
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