Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington, D.C. February 25, 2011
Situation Facing Livestock and Poultry Producers in 2011 Higher feed prices Corn: $5.05-$5.75/bu in 2010/11 $3.55 in 2009/2010 Soybean meal: $340-380/ton in 2010/11 $311 in 2009/2010 Shrinking returns
Higher Feed Bites into Gains from Livestock and Poultry Prices 60 50 40 Ratio 30 20 10 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011* Cattle/Corn Hog/Corn Broiler/Feed
Highlights for Livestock & Poultry in 2011 Offsetting meat production Beef, lamb, and turkey lower Pork and broilers higher
Red Meat and Poultry Production Will Increase 0.1 Percent in 2011 Billion lbs. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Poultry Beef Pork Other
Highlights for Livestock & Poultry in 2011 Offsetting meat production Stronger red meat exports but weaker broiler exports
Support for Exports Rising incomes fuel increased demand for meat protein. World GDP, less U.S., at about 3-4 percent in 2011 Weaker U.S. dollar will support meat exports. Trade issues remain irritants Pork issues resolved BSE restrictions remain Poultry issues
Red Meat Exports Represent Increasing Share of Production 25 20 Percent 15 10 5 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011* Beef Pork Broilers
Highlights for Livestock & Poultry in 2011 Offsetting meat production Stronger red meat exports but weaker broiler exports Domestic supply impacts mixed Larger broiler meat net supplies Smaller beef, pork, and turkey net supplies Gradual economic improvement U.S. GDP growth about 3 percent Unemployment gradually declining
Total Per Capita Retail Basis Meat Disappearance in 2011 at 207 Pounds 90 Pounds per capita 80 70 60 50 40 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Beef Pork Broilers
Despite Price Increase, Chicken Will Maintain Pricing Advantage at Retail 3 Retail Price Ratios 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011* Beef/Chicken Beef/Pork Pork/Chicken
Beef Production to Decline to 25.9 Billion Pounds in 2011 28 Billion Pounds 27 26 25 24 23 22 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Cattle Herd at 92.6 Million on Jan 1, 2011; Further Contraction Likely 120 115 Million Head 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012*
Beef Cows 1 Percent Lower Jan. 1, 2011. Calf Crop Declines in 2010 42 40 Million Head 38 36 34 32 30 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Beef Cows Calf Crop Calf Crop
Cattle for Feeding Lower on January 1 Million Head 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-1.3% +2.8% -3.3% Outside Feedlots On-Feed
Cattle Imports Decline to 2.1 Million Head In 2011 3.0 2.5 Million Head 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Canada Mexico Total
Herds in Canada and Mexico Shrink 30 Cattle and Calves January 1 25 Million Head 20 15 10 5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Canada Mexico
Average Cattle Carcass Weights Recover to Near Record in 2011 790 780 Pounds 770 760 750 740 730 720 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Beef Exports Increase 2 Percent to 2.4 Billion Pounds 4.0 3.5 Billion Pounds 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Exports
2011 Exports Remain Below 2003 2.5 Billion pounds 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Mexico Canada Japan South Korea Vietnam Other
Beef Imports Increase 4 Percent to 2.4 Billion Pounds Billion Pounds 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Exports Imports
Cattle Prices Rise in 2011, to Average $102 to $109 per cwt $ per cwt 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 5-Area Steer, All Grades QI QII QIII QIV Annual 2009 2010 2011*
Pork Production Increases to 22.5 Billion Pounds in 2011 25 Billion Pounds 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Beginning Hog Inventory Falls to 64.3 Million Head 69 Inventory on December 1, Preceding Year Million Head 67 65 63 61 59 57 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Sows Farrowing Expected to Stabilize in Late 2011 3.1 3.0 Million Head 2.9 2.8 2.7-0.6% -2.3% -0.6% +0.1% 2.6 2.5 QI QII QIII QIV 2009 2010 2011* * Quarters 1-2 NASS Reported, Quarters 3-4 Forecast
Growth in Pigs Per Litter Slower Head 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 1.1 % 2.0 % 2.1 % 1.4 % 1.8 % 1.7 % 2.2 % 2.1 % 1.5 % 2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011* III *Forecast
Hog Imports at 5.8 Million Head in 2011 12 10 Million Head 8 6 4 2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Feeders Other Total
Average Hog Carcass Weights Record High in 2011 210 205 Pounds 200 195 190 185 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Pork Exports Rise to 4.7 Billion Pounds, Pork Imports Continue Slow Growth Billion Pounds 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Exports Imports
2011 Pork Exports Record High Billion lbs. 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Japan Mexico Canada South Korea China/H.K. Other
Hog Prices to Average $58 to $61 per cwt National Base, 51-52% Lean, Live Equivalent 60 $ per cwt 50 40 30 20 QI QII QIII QIV Annual 2009 2010 2011*
Broiler Meat Production Record High in 2011 40 35 Billion lbs. 30 25 20 15 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Broiler Laying Flock Monthly Average Million birds 59.0 58.0 57.0 56.0 55.0 54.0 53.0 52.0 51.0 50.0 49.0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2008 2009 2010
Chicks Placed For Grow Out 19 Selected States Million birds 185 180 175 170 165 160 155 150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 2010 2011
Live Bird Weights Jumped in Late 2010 6.0 5.8 Pounds 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 Jan 05 Jul Jan 06 Jul Jan 07 Jul Jan 08 Jul Jan 09 Jul Jan 10 Jul
2011 Broiler Exports Will Fall Billion lbs. 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Russia China/HK Mexico Canada Cuba Other Total
Broiler Whole Bird Prices to Average 80 to 85 Cents Per Pound Cents per Pound 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 12-City Wholesale QI QII QIII QIV Annual 2009 2010 2011*
Turkey Production Forecast At 5.6 Billion Pounds in 2011 6.4 6.2 Billion lbs. 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Turkey Poult Placements Above Year Earlier 27 26 Million birds 25 24 23 22 21 2009 2010 2011 20 Jan Mar May July Sept Nov
Turkey Weight Growth Continues 32.0 Live weight (lbs) 30.0 28.0 26.0 24.0 22.0 20.0 Jan 04 Jul Jan 05 Jul Jan 06 Jul Jan 07 Jul Jan 08 Jul Jan 09 Jul Jan 10 Jul
Turkey Exports Will Decline in 2011 Million lbs. 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Mexico Russia China/HK Other Total
Turkey Prices to Average 89-95 Cents per Pound National Hen Price Cents/lb. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Egg Production Growth Slow Billion dozen 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011* Hatching Table
Table Egg Laying Flock Monthly Average Million birds 286.0 284.0 282.0 280.0 278.0 276.0 274.0 272.0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2008 2009 2010
Egg Prices Will Decline N.Y. Wholesale Price - Large Eggs Cents/lb. 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Additional information about the 2011 outlook is available at the following websites: World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/index.htm Economic Research Service (ERS) Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Situation and Outlook www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldp/ Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp