Aspects of bridge simulation, crew performance, and risk modelling in FAROS Meeting with coordinators of CASCADe & CyClaDes 13 March 2013, GL Group, Hamburg www.brookesbell.com 1
Outline Bridge simulation Tasks for crew to perform and criteria for selecting them Crew performance Means of assessing crew performance Risk models Scope, methods, data, and validation 2
Bridge tasks and criteria Participants will be asked to wear a light weight headset. Visual attention will be monitored using the Dikablis wireless mobile eye-tracking system (Ergoneers) which combines automated gaze data processing with head position measuring and a digital data uplink. Dikablis wireless headset 3
Bridge tasks and criteria Each scenario will contain a number of events contained within specific epochs Epoch 1 (5 minutes) will be the handover period Epoch 2 will be a calm period during which an event occurs requiring an immediate response but in which the vessel is not in direct danger of a threat. Evidence suggests that accidents associated with fatigue most commonly occurred in calm conditions and at the beginning of shifts and work tours. Therefore, between 5 minutes and 20 minutes post scenario onset, three tasks will occur (in random order and with variable intervals) when the threat of a collision or grounding situation is low. One of the task types in epoch 2 will involve visual non-auditory alarms (there are only three of these types available so they will be repeated 4 times across different scenarios) Auditory alarms accompanied in some cases by visual indicators will be the second task type in epoch 2. Several of these will be included to enable variability in experience across scenarios Verbal responses and actions to external communications will be analysed and scored against a predefined correct course of action. This will be in the form of a general message to all ships in the area so that the mariner must decide whether they are going to assume responsibility for any action to be taken 4
Bridge tasks and criteria Epoch 3 will include a direct collision or grounding threat. This will occur at a variable point within the epoch. Exercise restrictions will be measured (i.e. deviation from a pre-defined safe distance) in potential collision or grounding situations. For example, specified passing distances of 1 mile with a range of 0.8-1.25 miles may be deemed to be an acceptable performance. Potential collision situations will occur in Ropax scenarios only and potential grounding situations will occur in tanker scenarios only. 5
Performance assessment factors Ship type: ropax or tanker Alertness: full sleep or restricted sleep Ship motions: X, Y, and Z levels Noise: 2-3 levels 6
Performance assessment indicators RT response time 7
Performance assessment hypotheses 8 Due to effect of ship motions, noise, and alertness
Risk modelling scope Collision/grounding Route Crew Navigation Bridge Fire inception Outfitting Cargo/fright Crew Fire detectors Societal risk Hull breach Crashworthiness Stability failure Geometry (GA & hull) Loading Seat state Master failure Crew procedures Deck layouts To be addressed Fire escalation Outfitting Cargo/fright Crew Fire suppressors Deck layouts & GA Abandonment failure Lifesaving appliances Expected number of human fatalities, should collision, grounding or fire happens Occupational Crew accidents and health deterioration Expected number of crew fatalities, injuries and illness inceptions Personal risk Overall risk model for a ship 9
Risk modelling methods Bayesian networks Example of personal risk model (prototype) 10
Risk modelling methods Probabilistic equations using prob. distributions, logistic and other regression models, etc. Space (i) Frequency of fire ignition event in space i n R F = dr i i= 1 fire escalation from space of fire origin f(i) Pi(E f) pdf(n) Riski Loss of human life injuries/fatalities ( P( E) N ) dr i = fi i, k i, k k Concept behind fire risk model (ref. Brookes Bell) 11
Risk modelling data Physical and virtual experiments Statistical models estimating the probability of human error conditional on design and other factors Statistics / accident reports Data elicitation / expert judgment 4E-03 Frequency of fire outbreak Causes of deaths (British shipping 1976-2002) frequency per unit area 3E-03 2E-03 1E-03 Other occupational accidents Struck by other moving objects Struck by mooring nad towing ropes Struck by heavy seas on deck Other falls on boards Falls down or inside in holds 0E+00 Incinerator Room Galley Other (Crew/Service) Machinery Space Public (Other) Laundry space use Pantry Centrum Café Conference Center Falls overboards Asphyxiaated in engine room Asphyxiated in holds 12 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Deck officer Engineer
Risk modelling x-validation Physical and navigational conditions (ship motion, vibration & noise) Working conditions: fire inspection, suppression, execution of ordinary tasks Innovative ship concepts Bridge simulator (Wismar) coupled with Eye tracking technology (UoS) Risk level predicted by risk models - + Virtual reality platform (CIS Galicia) Factual risk level Uncertainty quantification in risk models 13